Potential law change may allow more companies to set up investment funds

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Moody’s raises Egypt’s local and foreign currency ratings to B3 and kept a positive outlook

Good morning, nice people. Before getting into the news of the day, we have an announcement of our own. After months of preparation, we’re relaunching our EnterprisePM and The Weekend Edition with sleeker, leaner packaging and new weekly features in both editions. To celebrate the relaunch, we’re rolling out a special series Made in Egypt that will take a closer look at the founders, factories, and infrastructure behind our homegrown local businesses. Make sure to check out today’s afternoon edition for more details on what’s in store, and I hope you all enjoy what we’ve been working on as much as we enjoy writing for you every day. If you don’t receive either edition, subscribe here.

Now to the news, and we’re starting with politics this morning, after President Abdel Fattah El Sisi used his speech (watch, runtime: 32:47) at the Egyptian Military Academy’s graduation ceremony yesterday to make two big announcements.

The first concerns Saudi Arabia. Egypt will carry out “any measure” to “defend” the kingdom if asked, the President said, calling on the House of Representatives to hold an emergency session to authorize any potential move. The House, chaired by Counselor Hisham Badawi, is meeting today in response, Al Ahram reports.

The second concerns the next presidential election. The President said 2030 will mark the end of his presidency, calling it “completely settled,” and added that the constitution “won’t be touched.” He also proposed a 30-month program to prepare PhD holders for top state posts, including the presidency. A committee headed by the House Speaker would set selection criteria that show no favoritism to anyone and draft a law governing how candidates are elected. “We won’t bar anyone,” El Sisi said, but the group would give Egyptians a pool to choose their leaders from.

Back to business, where the morning brings a nod from Moody’s: the agency moved us up a notch to B3 on Friday and kept its outlook positive, leaving the door open to another upgrade if our debt and interest bills keep shrinking. The details are right below.

Regulators also want to make it easier to start a fund at home. The FRA and the EGX are working on a Capital Market Law change that would let LLCs and simple limited partnerships get licensed to set up funds, two government officials tell us. That would let the companies who have been setting up their funds in neighboring markets do it here instead. A capital markets analyst tells us it’s a step in the right direction, but setting up a fund still takes months, and the money sitting on the sidelines is losing value to inflation in the meantime. Our big story has the rest.

The timing works, with investors lining up for the EGX’s IPOs. MNT-Halan closed its books last week with some EGP 126 bn in orders, about 16x what was on offer by our math, ahead of its debut on Tuesday. Banque du Caire may now go bigger, too: Banque Misr could sell up to 45% of the bank, up from 30%, after the roadshows pulled in demand from investors around the world.

Egyptian contractors are lining up for work in Jordan, starting with an estimated USD 45 mn grid substation in Aqaba that’s out to tender, with bids due on 10 November. Cairo and Amman are also studying a fourfold boost to the power link between them, from 500 MW to 2 GW, and the contractors have Syria, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia on their list, too.

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A notch up from Moody’s

Egypt’s fiscal turnaround has earned it an upgrade from Moody’s, which raised its local and foreign currency ratings to B3 from Caa1 on Friday, according to a report cited by a Cabinet statement. It kept the outlook positive, which leaves the door open to another notch if debt and interest costs keep falling faster than it expects. It credits several years of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms for the upgrade, and says the move to a flexible exchange rate and tighter monetary policy helped the economy absorb higher oil prices and a rough regional backdrop. It also expects the government to keep its finances in check after the IMF program ends in December.

The numbers behind it: By Moody’s count, Egypt ran a primary surplus of 4.6% of GDP in FY 2025/26. Stripping out one-off revenues, the surplus was 4.1%, up from 3.5% a year earlier and just 1.6% in FY 2022/23. Better tax collection helped, pushing tax revenues up to 13% of GDP, while non-interest spending fell to 10.6%.

That’s starting to show in the debt pile. Debt fell to 81.8% of GDP at the end of June from 95.2% in June 2023, and Moody’s sees it slipping below 70% by the end of the decade. The interest bill is the catch, though: it still eats up about 59% of government revenues. That’s down from 63% a year earlier, but it’s heavier than at most similarly rated countries, and Moody’s expects it to ease to around 50% over the same period.

Meanwhile, the external side is giving the agency more comfort. Net international reserves climbed to USD 57.35 bn in September. Remittances from Egyptians abroad jumped almost 30% to USD 47.3 bn in FY 2025/26, and tourism revenues rose 10.3% to USD 18.4 bn.

REMEMBER- The upgrade narrows the gap with the other two agencies. S&P affirmed our B rating and Fitch kept us at B earlier this month, both with stable outlooks and both still a notch above Moody’s new B3. That makes Moody’s the only one of the three with a positive outlook on us. S&P and Fitch also named the interest bill as the main constraint on public finances.

What could earn another notch: Moody’s says it would consider a further upgrade if debt and interest costs fall faster than its baseline and growth and revenue collection pick up. Local borrowing costs coming down more quickly as inflation eases would also help, it adds.

Our scrap case to Brussels

Egypt has made its pitch to keep EU scrap flowing: The government has filed its formal response to the European Commission’s plan to drop us from the list of countries allowed to import EU metal scrap. Hassan El Marakby, vice chairman of the Federation of Egyptian Industries’ Chamber of Metallurgical Industries and chairman of El Marakby Steel, tells EnterpriseAM that the Environment Ministry’s Waste Management Regulatory Authority sent the file on Thursday, a day before the Commission’s 16 October consultation deadline. The chamber and the mills supplied the technical data behind it, El Marakby says, covering how much scrap the industry uses, the environmental standards it follows, and how it treats its emissions.

The industry’s argument is simple: its big mills already meet European standards, and the real problem lies with the informal sector. That matters because the Commission’s draft list, published on 18 September, found that Egypt hadn’t shown it manages waste in an environmentally sound way. Under the EU’s revamped waste shipment rules, that means no more EU scrap once they apply in May 2027. India, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Morocco and Bangladesh were among the 16 countries left off the metal scrap list.

More than six Egyptian mills are already up to standard, Mohamed Hanafi, the chamber’s executive director, tells us. He names Ezz Steel, Suez Steel, Beshay Steel, and El Marakby Steel among those that meet the technical and environmental requirements for dealing with European markets. The work to get there started more than a year ago, he adds. Mills that comply with the EU’s carbon border tax (CBAM) will be best placed to keep importing EU scrap under the new rules, he says. The catch, by our read, is that the list works country by country, so plant-level readiness only counts if Egypt makes it back on.

The big mills use modern electric arc furnaces, which melt scrap with electricity rather than making steel from iron ore, El Marakby says. They’re also hooked up to the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency’s real-time emissions monitoring network under strict oversight. “The problem isn’t with them. It’s with the informal sector and unlicensed plants, like induction furnace workshops, which could hurt the national industry as a whole because they don’t comply with environmental requirements,” he explains. Induction furnaces are smaller, cheaper melting units with far less control over what goes in and what comes out.

El Marakby also sees protectionism at play: he calls the EU move a strategic decision to keep scrap at home for European mills as they cut emissions, and a way around free-trade rules, one that blunts Egyptian steel’s competitive edge. That edge, he argues, comes from low emissions. Egypt has run on electric arc furnaces for about 40 years, which El Marakby says puts our steel at around 600 kg of CO2 per ton. That’s less than a third of the 1.92-ton global average worldsteel reported for 2024.

And we need the scrap. Egypt uses about five mn tons of scrap a year, El Marakby says, and local supply covers only 1.5-1.8 mn tons of that. He says the rest comes from abroad: around 1.9-2 mn tons from the EU and about 1 mn tons from the UK and other markets. EU shipments are running well above that pace this year, though, at 2.12 mn tons in 1H 2026 alone, per Eurostat data. “We can’t rely entirely on local scrap, because how much is generated depends on the strength of the industrial sector,” El Marakby says. With around 2.8 mn tons of new steelmaking capacity on the way, he expects the need for imports to grow.

Being dropped from the list wouldn’t cut off supply, El Marakby says: EU scrap would just reach us through other routes at a higher cost. Hanafi told us last month that freight from the US or China runs USD 35-40 a ton, against USD 20-25 from Europe.

WHAT’S NEXT- The Commission has until 21 November to adopt the first list. After that, the European Parliament and the Council get two months to object, which can be extended by two more. The rules apply from 21 May 2027, and countries left off can reapply. El Marakby says much of the solution will come through politics and diplomacy, with the industry working closely with the Foreign Ministry and Egyptian embassies, especially in Brussels.

A potentially fatter float

BdC’s float could come in half again as big: Banque Misr could sell as much as 45% of Banque du Caire (BdC) in its IPO, up from the 30% set out in last week’s ITF notice, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. The investment banks running the offering recommended going bigger after the roadshows pulled in demand from investors around the world, the official says. At the EGP 80-80.5 bn fair value reported in September, a 45% stake would be worth roughly EGP 36 bn (c. USD 690 mn), against about EGP 24 bn for 30%, by our math. That’s before any discount at pricing.

A bigger float would also bring the deal closer to what the state originally had in mind. The government was looking to raise more than EGP 30 bn from the sale when the new valuation surfaced in September, and by our math, a 30% stake at fair value falls short of that.

Nothing has been signed off yet, though. The official tells us 30% is still the working figure, and the call on going bigger rests with Banque Misr, BdC’s state-owned parent and the only seller in the offering, together with the Central Bank of Egypt. A decision is expected in the coming days, and whatever size they settle on, the bank still needs the Financial Regulatory Authority to approve its public subscription notice and the EGX to sign off before it can set a subscription date with its advisors.

REMEMBER- The offering is fully secondary. The 4.575 bn shares in the current 30% plan are existing shares held by Banque Misr, so the proceeds go to the parent rather than to BdC. Going to 45% would mean selling about 6.86 bn shares, by our math. The ITF has subscriptions wrapping up in late October and trading starting in November. The EBRD and IFC were reportedly eyeing a combined 10% stake in August, but the ITF doesn’t name them.

ADVISORS- CI Capital is lead global coordinator and joint bookrunner, and our friends at EFG Hermes are the joint global coordinator and joint bookrunner.

Back to automatic, with no hike

The government will keep fuel prices unchanged through end-December 2026, the Petroleum Ministry said on Thursday, in the first quarterly review since the Cabinet resumed the automatic pricing committee. Pump prices hold at EGP 24 per liter for 95-octane, EGP 22.25 for 92-octane, EGP 20.75 for 80-octane, and EGP 20.50 for diesel. Automotive natural gas and cooking gas cylinders are unchanged too.

Former Egas head Medhat Youssef calls the hold “bold.” The mechanism ties quarterly price moves to three inputs (global Brent crude, the USD/EGP rate, and the actual cost of production and imports), and any change is capped at 10% in either direction. This time, Youssef tells EnterpriseAM, the government confirmed the mechanism’s return without applying its determinants: on current indicators, a cost-based increase would have topped 50%, far past the ceiling. He puts the real cost of a liter of gasoline at around EGP 35 today, against the EGP 24 pump price. For Youssef, the longer-term way out of the import-cost squeeze lies in successive major natural gas discoveries, supported by more foreign investment and brought rapidly into production.

Why it matters: The government absorbed the gap to keep a lid on inflation, but the pressure hits the import bill. Youssef estimates petroleum-product imports could nearly double to about USD 30 bn under current prices and exchange rates, and warns the bill faces mounting strain. Egypt isn’t the only one feeling it: the UAE raised gasoline and diesel for the third straight month and Jordan lifted prices by 50 fils a liter. Brent rose from around USD 91 a barrel in August to average USD 114 in September, peaked above USD 126 in early October, and has since eased to about USD 110.

REMEMBER- The government announced the return of quarterly automatic fuel pricing in July, following a temporary shift to a cost-recovery model. Under that system, it raised pump prices up to 17.1% in March, which exceeded the mechanism’s usual ceiling, and hiked industrial gas tariffs by USD 2 per mmBtu in May. By August, officials were still weighing whether to reinstate the capped mechanism or freeze pump prices and recover the gap from heavy industry instead. The committee also denied hike rumors on 4 October, saying it hadn’t met, before meeting on the 15th and holding.

PSA-

#1- Air Cairo has extended its suspension of all flights to Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport from Cairo, Assiut, and Sohag through Tuesday, 20 October, until normal operations resume at the airport, the airline said in a statement. It says it’s coordinating with Saudi civil aviation authorities on temporary operational measures at the airport. If you are booked on a Riyadh flight: Contact Air Cairo or your travel agent about your booking.

ALSO- The airline will start flying to Damascus on 15 November, restoring direct Cairo-Damascus flights suspended since 2011, Asharq reports, citing an unnamed official. It will run seven weekly flights from Cairo and three from Hurghada.

#2- The Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) is raising ticket prices across all visitor categories starting 1 November, Ahram Online reports. Entry fees for Egyptians will rise 10%, putting adults at EGP 220 and students, children, and seniors at EGP 110. Tickets for international visitors will jump 16.6%, putting foreign adults at EGP 1.83k, and students, children, and foreign residents at EGP 920.

#3- WEATHER- Cairo is cooling down, with a high of 29°C, and a low of 18°C — three degrees off the warm spell earlier this week, according to our favorite weather app. Morning fog on the roads and a slight chance of light rain, with a breeze picking up through the day.

It’s noticeably cooler in Alexandria too, with a high of 26°C and a low of 19°C — five degrees down from where it sat midweek.

The big story abroad

US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order suspending most of the Russia sanctions in a bipartisan law he approved last month. The move is part of Trump’s broader shift toward Moscow as he seeks to end the war in Ukraine and contain fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections.

Lots of money, lots of chips: Anthropic is lining up a USD 60 bn debt package to help fund its purchase of about 1.5 GW of Google-developed custom semiconductors known as tensor processing units. Anthropic has offered Blackstone yields above 10% on the firm’s USD 9 bn share of the junior debt.

SoftBank is in early talks to buy Allied Universal, one of the world’s largest private security firms, in a deal that could value it at up to USD 18 bn excluding debt. It would be SoftBank’s latest AI and robotics bet, after last year’s USD 5.4 bn deal for ABB’s industrial robotics-centered business.

FRA and EGX eye law change to let LLCs and partnerships set up investment funds

More companies could soon be allowed to set up and manage investment funds in Egypt. The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) is working with the EGX on amending Article 29 of the Capital Market Law (pdf) so that limited liability companies and simple limited partnerships can get licensed to form funds, two government officials tell EnterpriseAM. Right now, that license is reserved for joint-stock companies and partnerships limited by shares. The change is one of a set of legislative and executive tweaks the two regulators are studying to deepen the market and make it more attractive to local and regional investors, the officials say.

The change is about who runs the funds. It would widen the pool of companies that can get licensed to set up and manage them, while the funds themselves would still have to take the form of joint-stock companies with cash capital under Article 35 of the law, unless regulators amend that too, which the officials didn’t address.

The goal is to keep Egyptian money at home. “This amendment will increase the local market’s ability to compete and attract the investment funds it’s targeting,” the officials tell us. Many companies have been setting up their funds in neighboring markets instead of Egypt since the current law doesn’t allow them to, and “the amendment will improve the market’s ability to keep hold of Egyptian capital by letting those companies set up locally,” they say.

The tax breaks come next. The EGX also wants these new funds to be able to tap the tax exemptions already on the books for certain fund types, one of the officials says. Right now, only five types get them under the Income Tax Law: real estate, debt, venture capital, charitable, and listed-equity funds. The bourse has been lobbying to expand that list to 38 categories, adding gold and precious metals funds, along with funds that invest in transferable assets, such as mortgage receivables and lease-backed portfolios. The Tax Authority is studying the request, and the finance minister can sign off on it by decision, without needing a change to the law.

The push comes as funds are having a moment. The investment fund industry’s net assets reached EGP 471 bn at the end of June, up from EGP 411 bn at end-March, with the number of funds rising to 224, helped by FRA rules requiring ins.ers to put a minimum share of their money into equity funds. Regulators have kept the momentum going since then. The EGX tightened the rules for index funds in June, and the FRA’s first hedge fund rulebook took effect last month, letting licensed funds short stocks, trade derivatives, and borrow to invest. They will have more to work with soon: EGX70 futures and options are next in line after this year’s EGX30 and single-stock contracts, and a central system that lets short sellers find shares to borrow goes into a pilot in November.

Why it matters for the market: Funds are one of the best tools for bringing liquidity into the EGX and drawing in new investors, especially individuals who don’t have the experience to trade stocks directly, capital markets analyst Safaa Fares tells EnterpriseAM. Because they spread their money across stocks, corporate bonds, and T-bills, funds give investors a longer-term, lower-risk way into the market, she says. More funds focused on specific sectors, such as industry, real estate, and precious metals, would get more money moving through the bourse, she adds.

There’s more to fix, though. Fares wants more flexible rules for setting up funds, including opening up subscriptions to a wider base of investors, as long as governance and disclosure standards stay high. Licensing takes too long, she says: setting up a fund can currently take several months, and the money waiting on the sidelines loses value to inflation in the meantime. She also wants clearer legal and tax rules on how funds are managed so managers aren’t left guessing, and transparent tracking of how funds aimed at key sectors actually perform.

What’s next: The officials didn’t give a timeline. Any change to the Capital Market Law would need to go through the House, while the expanded list of tax-exempt funds only needs a decision from the finance minister.

Egyptian contractors eye Jordan’s grid upgrade as Cairo and Amman plan to quadruple their power link

Egyptian contractors are lining up for work on Jordan’s power grid, while Cairo and Amman get ready to quadruple the capacity of the electricity link between them, a source at the Egyptian Federation for Construction and Building Contractors tells EnterpriseAM. There’s no shortage of openings in Jordan’s grid upgrades, the source says, and first on the list is a new 400/132 kV substation in Aqaba worth an estimated USD 45 mn, which Jordan’s state grid operator NEPCO has put out to tender with bids due on 10 November.

The Aqaba job is a full package: design, supply, installation, commissioning, and civil works for the substation, along with a 400 kV gas-insulated station (a compact setup that encloses the equipment in gas so it takes up far less space) and the cables tying it into the existing network, the source says, adding that more projects are expected to follow.

Behind it all is a bigger upgrade to the link between the two grids. Egypt and Jordan will start feasibility studies next month on raising the capacity of their link to 2 GW from 500 MW today, a government source in the electricity sector tells us. The Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development is footing the bill, some KWD 300k (c. USD 1 mn), and the upgrade would let the two grids trade more power and back each other up when supply runs tight, as part of a wider push to link Arab electricity markets.

The link could lead further. Jordan is Egypt’s gateway northeast, and a proposed subsea cable could eventually carry Egyptian power on to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. That would come on top of the 3 GW link with Saudi Arabia, which entered trial operations in September and is now slated for an official mid-November launch.

Syria and Lebanon are on contractors’ radar, too. The federation is hoping to secure a share of reconstruction work in both countries (including their power grids) through development agencies, which would also drive demand for Egyptian building materials, the federation source says. Syria alone faces a reconstruction bill of some USD 216 bn, and Egyptian businesses are already making the trip. A Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce delegation led by Ahmed El Wakil met President Ahmed Al Sharaa in January (watch, runtime: 11:16) and signed cooperation deals with its Syrian counterpart. Hassan Allam and Naguib Sawiris followed with their own meetings with Al Sharaa in Damascus this summer, a big step up from last year’s Syria reconstruction conference, which drew just one Egyptian company.

The diplomatic track is picking up as well. Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met Syria’s finance minister on Friday to discuss boosting economic and financial ties and to prepare for his own upcoming visit to Damascus, he said on X, though he didn’t give a date for the trip.

Saudi Arabia is where the federation has made the most headway so far. It has registered a large number of its members to work on Saudi projects under terms agreed with the Saudi side, the federation source says, after Riyadh set up a fast track for top-tier Egyptian contractors in April to compete for some SAR 200 bn of projects.

Why the rush abroad: Contractors are getting a smaller slice of infrastructure work at home than in years past, the construction federation source says, and the numbers back that up. Fitch cut its growth forecast for the sector to 0.4% for FY 2025/26 from 5.6%, as the state shifted spending toward debt management under its IMF program, and construction activity shrank 0.3% in the first half of the fiscal year. The federation has been steering its members toward maintenance and operations contracts at home, and exporting their services is the other half of that plan.

What’s next: The interconnection studies kick off next month, and bids for the Aqaba substation are due on 10 November.

Pickalbatros closes USD 250 mn sustainability-linked package from IFC, Attijariwafa for Morocco expansion

Pickalbatros has closed USD 250 mn in sustainability-linked financing from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Attijariwafa Bank to fund its Morocco expansion, adviser Zilla Capital said in a statement (pdf), calling it the largest IFC-backed hospitality financing in Morocco’s history, and the group’s own.

It’s a dual-currency package split into three tranches, and it covers Pickalbatros’ recent acquisitions (the Sofitel Casablanca Tour Blanche and the Mövenpick Hotel Casablanca), sustainability work and upgrades at its Marrakech and Agadir hotels, and the refinancing of existing debt over longer maturities, giving the group more room to repay.

The IFC’s project disclosure tells a different story on size. It lists an IFC A-loan of up to USD 165 mn alongside USD 135 mn mobilized from B/parallel lenders, for USD 300 mn of debt against a USD 386 mn program. Yet the same document describes IFC’s investment as “up to USD 200 mn.” That’s three different figures in one disclosure.

REMEMBER- The package has grown since we last checked in. Pickalbatros got approval in June for USD 200 mn in World Bank Group-backed financing for its Morocco expansion, putting the final signed package USD 50 mn above the amount previously flagged. The Casablanca acquisitions were already moving at the time: Pickalbatros filed to acquire the 184-key Mövenpick Casablanca in May, around a month after buying the Sofitel Casablanca Tour Blanche for USD 47 mn.

Nine hotels and counting: Pickalbatros pledged USD 140 mn to expand in Morocco back in 2023 and had grown to seven hotels and 2.6k rooms by September 2024, which rose to over 2.7k rooms across nine hotels as of this October, according to Zilla’s statement. Four hotel acquisitions that year were followed by the two Casablanca additions in 2026. The group has now invested more than USD 400 mn in Morocco, Asharq Business reports, citing founder and Chairman Kamel Abou Aly.

ADVISORS- Zilla Capital acted as exclusive financial adviser to Pickalbatros, while ADNA served as the group’s legal counsel. Clifford Chance advised IFC and Attijariwafa Bank. The transaction also marks the formal launch of Zilla Capital’s operations in Morocco.

Ali Alhosani to succeed Mohamed Maait on IMF Executive Board in November

Former Finance Minister Mohamed Maait is set to step down from his IMF Executive Board seat in November, bringing his two-year stint representing the Arab Group and the Maldives to a close following the election of his successor, Emirati economist Ali Alhosani, who will become the first UAE national to hold the role. Alhosani has served as alternate executive director at the IMF since 2021, having previously worked as an adviser to an executive director at the World Bank Group and a portfolio manager at the International Finance Corporation. His earlier career includes roles at the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Court and Abu Dhabi Investment Council.

REMEMBER- Maait took over the Arab Group and Maldives seat in October 2024, succeeding Mahmoud Mohieldin, who had served two consecutive two-year terms.

Rosatom and Teletech agrees to assemble battery-storage systems locally, with up to 500 MWh a year of capacity

Russia’s Rosatom and homegrown tech outfit Telecom and Technology Co. (Teletech) have agreed to localize battery-storage assembly in Egypt, with planned facilities carrying potential production capacity of up to 500 MWh a year, according to a Rosatom statement. The agreement between Rosatom’s Fuel Division and Teletech also covers personnel training and the gradual expansion of production capacity.

The locally assembled lithium-ion storage systems will target several corners of the economy, including electricity, telecoms, data centers, oil and gas, and other industrial applications. The companies disclosed no investment ticket, site, startup timeline, ownership split, or local-content target for the project.

IN CONTEXT- Egypt’s battery-localization pipeline is getting busier. BME signed a contract with China’s CATL last month for an EGP 2 bn-plus battery-systems plant that will start at 1 GWh of annual capacity before scaling to 5 GWh, while Amea Power signed EPC contracts in June for 1.5 GWh of standalone storage projects alongside a planned factory capable of producing up to 3 GWh of battery-storage systems annually.

Farmed fish head to Europe

Egypt has secured formal EU authorization for exports of farmed finfish, finfish products, and crustaceans under a new European Commission regulation published on Wednesday. The approval extends Egypt’s EU market access beyond wild-caught fishery products to aquaculture. The authorization takes effect on 4 November.

REMEMBER- The formal green light came later than expected. We reported in May that EU approval was already opening the door to an estimated 160k-200k tons of European demand, with around 70 Egyptian farms coded and ready for export. Lakes and Fish Resources Protection and Development Agency head Salah Moselhi told us at the time that formal approval was expected in July, with first shipments to follow shortly afterward.

Dangote’s Egyptian receipts

The EGX is in talks with Nigeria’s Dangote Group about issuing Egyptian Depository Receipts (EDRs) backed by shares in the group’s subsidiaries, EGX Chairman Omar Radwan said during a visit to the bourse by group chairman Aliko Dangote, according to an EGX statement. The talks are exploratory, and the only concrete outcome so far is an agreement to hold a series of technical meetings on implementation. No timeline, issue size, or specific subsidiary have been named.

The pitch: Radwan said the EDRs would give local investors direct exposure to large West African industrial assets “without bearing the risks or complications of cross-border money transfers.” Though, he did not say who would carry the currency risk on NGN-denominated underlying shares, or how Nigerian capital controls might affect them. Dangote said the group is targeting USD 50 bn in investments through 2030 and wants Egypt to get a share of that, though he didn’t name any specific projects or amounts.

Data reporting timeline tightened

The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) has mandated all non-bank finance companies to enter their activity data on its data platform every month, between the 1st and 15th, covering the previous month, under circular 7 of 2026, according to a FRA statement. Firms must also check their figures for errors, completeness, and consistency with the FRA’s own records before submitting. The circular sets no penalty of its own for missing the window.

Firms have until 29 October to fix past filings. The FRA has exceptionally reopened the platform from Monday 12 to Thursday 29 October so firms can complete outstanding data and review and correct everything they have entered since 1 January 2026 — a reach-back that goes well beyond the previous month. That window is separate from the monthly duty.

BACKGROUND- The circular builds on FRA Decision 2684 of 2026, in force since 24 September, which requires consumer finance companies to link their systems to the FRA’s database. The data to be shared includes client details at the point financing is approved, real-time purchase and service transactions, the classification of financed goods and services, the classification of clients by repayment record, and the company’s solvency indicators. The aim is full integration of companies’ databases to build better indicators and share them with the market, the FRA says.

Foreign investors pull USD 2.8 bn from MENA stocks as Mashreq cuts 2026 return outlook

Net foreign outflows from MENA equities jumped to USD 2.8 bn in 3Q 2026, up from USD 500 mn in 2Q, according to Mashreq Capital’s 4Q 2026 MENA Fixed Income and Equity Markets Outlook (pdf). The asset manager cut its full-year regional equity return forecast to 5-7% from 6-8%, favoring the UAE and Oman while remaining cautious on Qatar and Kuwait.

Egypt is a more balanced call: Mashreq remains neutral on Egyptian equities but favors banks, which stand to benefit when monetary easing resumes. It expects rates to remain at 19% through year-end, with cuts beginning in 2027. FY 2026 growth reached 5.1%, and inflation eased to 14.5%, although September’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 47.2 signals continued weakness in private-sector demand.

Saudi Arabia took the biggest hit: Foreign investors withdrew USD 1.5 bn from Saudi equities in 3Q, reversing USD 1.6 bn of inflows in 2Q and accounting for more than half of regional outflows. Kuwait lost USD 700 mn and Dubai USD 500 mn, while Abu Dhabi and Qatar were broadly flat. The selling intensified in September as geopolitical risks mounted.

REMEMBER- Saudi Arabia’s September sell-off was already flashing warning signs. The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) fell 6.2% m-o-m to its lowest month-end close of 2026, while foreign investors sold a net SAR 4.33 bn, as we reported last week. Higher interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on valuations, although market watchers described the pullback as a risk-off phase rather than a structural deterioration.

The market scoreboard shows just how wide the gap has become: The S&P Pan Arab Large Composite Index slipped 0.6% in 3Q, leaving it up 2.2% year to date (YTD). UAE equities gained 5.3% during the quarter, while Qatar shed 9.7%. Oman leads the year-to-date rankings with a 33.1% gain, against Qatar’s 11.2% decline. The UAE also bucked the wider Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sell-off in September, with Dubai and Abu Dhabi the only two Gulf exchanges to finish the month in positive territory.

Oman’s geography is proving an advantage. The sultanate has kept crude flowing through ports outside the Strait of Hormuz, allowing it to benefit from higher oil prices and an Omani crude premium over Brent. Mashreq remains overweight Oman, where 2Q GDP grew 5.1% and government revenue rose 13% in 1H. FTSE Russell has also placed Oman on its watch list for a possible upgrade from frontier to secondary emerging-market status, with potential implementation after 2027.

The UAE gets an overweight, led by Abu Dhabi: Mashreq favors energy infrastructure, logistics, and companies tied to the Adnoc value chain, supported by Abu Dhabi’s project pipeline and export access through Fujairah. Dubai’s weakening residential market is a different story, with prices easing, transactions slowing, and new supply accelerating. Banks also face rising funding costs as credit growth outpaces deposit growth, leaving Mashreq underweight financials overall.

Saudi Arabia remains a stock-picker’s market: Mashreq is neutral on Saudi overall but favors energy and grid infrastructure, data centers, and companies with multiyear contracted backlogs. It remains cautious about contractors exposed to the reprioritization of gigaproject spending. The disconnect between earnings and returns is striking: Saudi corporate earnings have grown an average of 8.1% annually over five years, while the equity market has returned just 1.2% a year.

Qatar and Kuwait have yet to find their footing: Qatari stocks are at their cheapest price-to-book level since 2009, but Mashreq wants evidence of recovering liquified natural gas (LNG) exports before turning more constructive. Kuwait faces its own constraints, with crude exports recovering to only around two-thirds of last year’s level. Mashreq remains underweight both markets.

The bond sell-off has opened another window: The Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate MENA Index lost 3.8% in 3Q, taking its YTD decline to 3.2%, largely as higher US Treasury yields weighed on prices. That pushed the index yield to 6.5%, while higher-quality Gulf sovereigns now offer close to 6%. Mashreq favors UAE, Moroccan, and Egyptian conventional sovereign debt but expects full-year regional bond returns to be flat to mildly negative.

Sukuk have weathered the storm better: The Bloomberg USD Sukuk Index declined 1.6% year to date through September, compared with the MENA bond index’s 3.2% loss. Mashreq favors sovereign sukuk from Oman, the UAE, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan. The relative resilience comes despite a tougher issuance environment: GCC sukuk sales fell 23% y-o-y to USD 51.1 bn in 1H, as we reported last month.

EGX30	52,273	+1.5% (YTD: +25.0%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 53.39	Sell 53.53
USD (CIB)	Buy 53.42	Sell 53.52
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	10,107	-0.3% (YTD: -3.7%)
ADX	9,808	0.0% (-1.9%)
DFM	5,867	+0.6 (YTD: +0.6%)
S&P 500	7,659	−1.1% (YTD: +11.9%)
FTSE 100	10,882	+0.4% (YTD: +9.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,204	+0.6% (YTD: +7.0%)
Brent crude	USD 109.86	+3.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.12	-3.7%
Gold	USD 4,181	+0.3%
BTC	USD 81,305	-0.3% (YTD: -7.2%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,131	+0.1% (YTD: +13.9%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	148.50	+0.2% (YTD: -2.2%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	19.99	+21.5% (YTD: +33.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.5% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 7.0 bn (38.3% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 25.0% YTD.

In the green: Eastern Company (+5.5%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (+4.0%), and Beltone Holding (+2.6%).

In the red: Egypt Aluminum (-3.5%), Orascom Development (-2.6%), and Qalaa Holdings (-2.1%).

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

12-18 October (Monday-Sunday): IMF & World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok.

19-22 October (Monday-Thursday): UfM Economic Forum, Cairo.

19-24 October (Monday-Saturday): Egypt 2026 Forum, The St. Regis New Capital.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): IEX Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

NOVEMBER

5-7 November (Thursday-Saturday): ICA Annual Conference 2026, Cairo.

6-8 November (Friday-Sunday): Global Entrepreneurship Festival, JW Marriott Hotel, New Cairo.

7-10 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT Forum, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo.

10 November (Tuesday): Cityscape Egypt Forum, Cairo.

DECEMBER

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Food Africa, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

11-12 December (Friday-Saturday): ISER International Conference, Cairo.

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

17-20 December (Thursday-Sunday): MacTech Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

4Q 2026: Banque du Caire IPO.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Agri Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

29 September - 2 October (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape Egypt Exhibition, Cairo.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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