Humain finds its anchor

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: The IMF sees less room to absorb another oil shock

Good morning, all. The long money keeps committing to Saudi Arabia even as the war presses on the current quarter, and Humain signing its first foreign anchor customer is the sharpest example. Humain used Nvidia’s Berlin conference to bring in AI cloud provider Nebius for up to 50 MW at Oxagon. That capacity is small compared to the 3 GW Humain wants by 2030, but the first foreign demand behind the buildout is what turns the plan into something a financier will back.

The pressure on the quarter can be seen in the earnings, where it sits on the cost and logistics line. East Pipes’ earnings halved as raw-material shipments were rerouted and left waiting at port; Electrical Industries watched project deliveries slip and shipping and ins. costs climb, and Tadweeer carried the same freight burden through the first half. Demand held up across most of them. The trouble was getting the inputs in and the output out.

On the military side, the war is pushing the Kingdom to build up its own arsenal. Satellite images of the Al Duwadimi complex suggest Saudi is scaling up toward longer-range missiles, possibly with Chinese help, that could eventually reach Iran. In the meantime, defense pacts with Pakistan and Turkey are firming up, even as the Houthis keep hitting airports and oil sites.

Barclays sticks to Saudi timeline

Barclays is still pressing ahead with plans to open a regional quarters in Saudi Arabia before the end of this year, despite recent Houthi escalations, Asia-Pacific CEO Jaideep Khanna told Bloomberg. The London-based bank is seeking a financial-services license to build a full platform in the Kingdom, a step up from its lighter current footprint, and is expanding in Turkey as well, keeping its “constructive” view on the region.

The comments hold the line CEO CS Venkatakrishnan set in April, and land days after Riyadh postponed the Future Investment Initiative (FII) to 2027. Venkatakrishnan had been due to speak, alongside the chief executives of JPMorgan and HSBC.

REMEMBER- Barclays announced its return to the Kingdom last year after more than a decade away, with plans for a regional headquarters in Riyadh’s King Abdullah Financial District; it has a provisional license from the Capital Market Authority and has tapped Bahri Chairman Mohammed Al Sarhan to help lead the expansion.

It joins a wave of international financial firms setting up under the RHQ Program: Goldman Sachs was the first major international bank to win an RHQ license, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have since followed, and Deutsche Bank received its license last July.

Two more off the calendar

Riyadh is pushing two more events into next year. The sixth UN World Data Forum and the second Saudi Statistics Forum, originally scheduled for 9-12 November, have been postponed to 2027, the UN Statistics Division and Gastat said in a joint announcement (pdf) and a Gastat statement. New dates have yet to be announced. Organizers said the delay is meant to allow broader international participation by speakers, experts, and partners, and that preparatory events under the Road to Riyadh program will go ahead as planned.

ICYMI- The move follows last week’s postponement of the Future Investment Initiative to 2027, while Intersec Saudi Arabia, Saudi Build, and Saudi Elenex have also been pushed to October and November 2027. The postponements come as Saudi Arabia has faced repeated Houthi missile and drone attacks in recent weeks, including strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport that have led to civilian casualties and prompted several foreign carriers to suspend flights.

Five days to vacate

Saudi’s overhauled enforcement regime kicks in this Thursday. Of the 54 articles, the one creditors and landlords will feel most sets a clock on evictions: a property must be handed to the enforcement applicant within five working days of notice, with any extension capped at 60 days, according to an Uqn statement.

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The big story abroad

Polar LNG under Russian influence? After resigning in September, former Polar LNG CEO Joel Riddle accused US-sanctioned Russian company Novatek of secretly funding the firm. Polar LNG is a USD 25 bn US gas export venture reportedly linked to an investor with connections to the Trump family. The company is repurposing a gas terminal in Alaska partially built by Novatek. Polar LNG saw mass resignations among its leadership, including Riddle, due to concerns about sanctions risk.

Musk, Kyiv split on Starlink usage: Ukraine announced that both the Starlink satellite network and its defense-oriented version, Starshield, are back at full capacity following a disruption that strained relations with Washington. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said Ukraine breached Starlink's terms of service by deploying the network to conduct offensive drone attacks, and that the workaround that allowed this was shut down last week.

Unrest rages across Europe: Protests have continued across several European countries, including France, Albania, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, despite tightened security and large police deployments. The protests have been attributed to social and economic grievances, including over pensions, housing, education, and corruption.

2

Tech

Humain signs Nebius for up to 50 MW as it grows its Nvidia chip commitment

PIF-owned Humain used Nvidia’s GTC conference in Berlin to show the demand side of its AI buildout, naming its first international anchor customer and expanding its chip order from Nvidia.

AI cloud provider Nebius has signed a preliminary framework to take up to 50 MW — half the initial 100 MW now under construction — at a planned AI giga-campus in Neom’s Oxagon being developed by Humain and DataVolt, the digital-infrastructure firm that will own and operate the site, according to a statement. Capacity would phase in from 4Q 2027, the companies said in a statement. The framework comes six weeks after ground broke on the site, whose first phase is designed for 360 MW.

Humain also expanded its Nvidia collaboration to as much as 84 MW of compute, some 27k GPUs. It begins with 14 MW of Blackwell HGX B300 systems (c. 6k GPUs) in 4Q 2026 for Humain Cloud, followed by 70 MW of next-generation Vera Rubin infrastructure (c. 21k GPUs) from mid-2027 — including a 50 MW block set aside for an unnamed US client.

REMEMBER- The company is also reworking how it pays for all this. Humain is now targeting 1.7 GW of capacity in 2027, above its earlier plans, and CEO Tareq Amin said it wants to reduce its reliance on shareholder funding. It is pursuing a domestic data-center fund seeking an initial USD 2.5 bn, subject to regulatory approval.

Why it matters: A program of Humain’s size — 3 GW of data-center capacity targeted by 2030 and more than 6 GW by 2034 — needs paying tenants to justify the spend. Humain has said it intends to lock in customer demand before building out, then use that contracted demand to attract financing and outside investment. Landing a foreign anchor this early, even on a preliminary framework, starts to turn announced megawatts into financeable capacity and puts the first international demand behind Saudi Arabia’s pitch to export compute on the back of cheap power.

3

WAR WATCH

New construction at Al Duwadimi points to possible push for longer-range missiles

Saudi Arabia seems to be expanding its missile capabilities as the Houthi barrages continue. An expansion to the Al Duwadimi missile complex west of Riyadh, captured on satellite imagery, likely aims to produce larger solid-fuel missiles that could fly farther or carry heavier payloads, Foreign Policy Research Institute researchers Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman told Reuters. The work appears to draw on Chinese technology, with Riyadh reportedly turning to Beijing to overcome US restrictions on longer-range systems exports.

New construction points to a production ramp-up. Satellite images show two new buildings at the facility that could expand output, possibly starting by year-end. Defense-intelligence firm Janes said the buildings may signal expanded production or work on longer-range missiles.

What the range buys Riyadh: Longer-range missiles would reshape the kingdom’s options. Lair said Saudi Arabia may already be producing the solid-fuel DF-15, and that the expansion is likely aimed at the longer-range DF-21 or a comparable system. The International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Sascha Bruchmann said that reach would let the kingdom strike Iran directly, sparing its US-supplied F-15s from Iranian air defenses. CNA’s Decker Eveleth noted that the same build-out is underway across the region, including in the UAE and Turkey.

The defense pacts firm up

On the diplomatic front, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia completed the ratification of their defense pact, while Turkey is still working through its legal procedures, Pakistani Foreign Office spokesperson Sajjad Haider Khan said over the weekend. He rejected talk of hidden clauses, saying the 16-article text matches the version released by Turkey’s parliament and that the pact is defensive. The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan (the R4 Group) also met in Istanbul and condemned the Houthi escalation.

REMEMBER- Allied involvement will shape where this goes. Egypt’s parliament is voting this week on military support for Riyadh, the UK is deploying RAF Typhoons to help defend Saudi cities, and France has sent radar systems to Yanbu. Iran, for its part, plans to broker talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

The attacks keep coming

The Houthis, meanwhile, are giving Riyadh no respite. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said yesterday that the group had carried out seven operations using ballistic missiles and drones, targeting King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh; King Fahd International Airport in Dammam; Najran International Airport; Aramco in Yanbu; the Rabigh oil refinery; crude oil pumping stations and a pipeline carrying crude oil from east to west; and Khamis Mushait Air Base. The group also said on 22 October that it had struck some of these targets, along with the Saudi Defence Ministry and Abha International Airport, over the previous 48 hours. Several of these sites had been targeted in previous weeks.

The Saudi-backed coalition said it intercepted and destroyed four ballistic missiles, two aimed at Riyadh and one each at Taif, Yanbu, Khamis Mushait and Najran. It also said it downed 12 drones targeting the Eastern Province, Riyadh, Madinah, and the south. Saree put the coalition’s own activity on Friday at 124 strikes across northern Yemen, bringing the total to about 3k since the escalation began. The coalition, however, has stressed that these attacks don’t intend to harm civilians, dismissing Houthi claims that the kingdom is targeting tribal and civilian gatherings in Yemen.

Saudi aviation authorities are working to keep airports operational. Starting Sunday, national carriers at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport will run domestic flights from Terminal 1 and international flights from Terminal 2. However, passengers are being urged to check booking and flight status with their airline before heading to the airport, and airlines must request permission before landing or taking off, as the Houthis still consider King Khalid International Airport a “military target.”

Evacuations? Aramco has evacuated its Dhahran headquarters and moved staff to remote work, its first such move since the escalation began, though it has not stated a reason, Reuters reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The US State Department has also ordered some diplomats and the families of government employees to leave Saudi Arabia, though spokesperson Tommy Pigott said there were no similar withdrawals elsewhere in the region.

ALSO- The General Authority of Civil Aviation confirmed last week’s attack on King Fahd International killed two people, a Saudi citizen and an Indian national, and injured eight.

Regionally, it’s about to get more complicated. The wider confrontation with Iran could resume soon after the 3 November US midterms. The US and Israeli militaries have reportedly drawn up strike plans — targeting Iran’s oil industry and nuclear sites — that Trump has yet to approve. Netanyahu ordered the IDF to hit Iran around 10 October before holding off until after the vote.

4

STARTUP WATCH

Saudi student turns USD 133 wedding gig into USD 300k startup

INVE has raised USD 300k in pre-seed funding from Outliers Venture Capital to expand its corporate events platform and take its consumer business beyond weddings, founder and CEO Abdulrahman Alabdulkarim (LinkedIn) tells EnterpriseAM.

It started with a family wedding: In late 2023, Alabdulkarim’s sister asked him to build a system for sending personalized wedding invitations over WhatsApp, and paid him SAR 500 (USD 133). He was studying computer science with little hands-on development experience, so he taught himself the build from YouTube tutorials. That side job has since grown into a platform that has supported more than 250 events across 60-plus cities in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

The push into corporate came in August, when INVE launched a subscription platform aimed at companies that run multiple events a year — investor gatherings, dinners, product launches — rather than the occasional large conference. The software lets them manage guest databases, track attendance, and store details like dietary preferences and professional interests, then search attendance records, identify frequent guests, and segment contacts by industry to personalize later events. Customer data is encrypted and hosted in the Kingdom.

“We’re not an invitation app,” Alabdulkarim said. “We have more in our suite of products than just invitations.” He describes the model as “relationship-based event management,” arguing that businesses often lose valuable guest information between events or repeatedly request details they already collected.

The investor was also its first corporate customer. Outliers used INVE to run its own events before putting money in. The firm has backed Saudi fintech unicorn Tabby, Lean Technologies, and US AI coding platform Replit.

Use of proceeds: INVE will use the funding to hire, develop its software, and attract customers across its consumer and corporate platforms. “We want to use the current investment to its full capacity and grow the company with it,” Alabdulkarim said, adding that he is not seeking another funding round for now. He declined to disclose INVE’s valuation or the stake Outliers acquired.

Another USD 1.5 mn for Ghanem

Saudi fractional property platform Ghanem raised USD 1.5 mn in a pre-seed extension, taking the round to USD 8.6 mn, according to a press release (pdf). Real estate companies and strategic angel investors joined the extension, which builds on the USD 7.1 mn Ghanem raised last November with participation from Al Romaih Group. The company says it will use the fresh funding to develop its product, diversify the properties it offers, and build partnerships.

Beyond the funding: Ghanem says its platform now links directly to the Real Estate Registry, where investors’ fractional stakes are registered in their names. It has issued digital deeds to 580 investors in its first income-generating property and begun paying out rental income, early steps toward the SAR 1 bn in assets under management the firm told us last year that it was targeting within three years.

REMEMBER- Ghanem is still operating within the Real Estate General Authority’s regulatory sandbox. Its path to a permanent license hinges on a national tokenization law, CEO Saleh Alghamdi told us in April. He also said then that Ghanem expected to open the platform to non-Saudi investors this year and was exploring tokenizing off-plan properties with the regulator.

5

EARNINGS WATCH

A busy day on the earnings front

Aldrees picks up speed with more stations and trucks

Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services’ net income grew 22.3% y-o-y to SAR 137.6 mn in 3Q, outpacing a 16.4% rise in revenue to SAR 7.98 bn, according to a Tadawul filing. The fuel retailer and transport operator attributed the sales growth to more service stations in operation and a larger truck fleet.

The gains extended beyond the top line: Gross income rose 19.6% to SAR 282.3 mn, and operating income grew by the same rate to SAR 180.6 mn. Higher sales across the company’s petrol and transport divisions, alongside stronger sukuk income, lifted earnings. Lower income from bank deposits and joint ventures, coupled with rising selling and administrative expenses, financing costs, and zakat, offset part of those gains.

Over 9M 2026, Aldrees’ net income rose 19.8% y-o-y to SAR 371.6 mn on revenue of SAR 22.13 bn, up 17.2%. Operating income increased 15.8% to SAR 507.1 mn. Income from bank deposits and sukuk investments also grew over the period, although higher expenses and weaker joint-venture income weighed on the gains.

Saudi Kayan trims losses, but the red ink stays

Saudi Kayan Petrochemical narrowed its net loss to SAR 94.2 mn in 3Q from SAR 336.3 mn last year, it said in a Tadawul disclosure, as higher selling prices, cost cuts, and a one-off provision reversal lifted it back into a positive operating result even as the bottom line stayed in the red. Revenue edged up 1.6% y-o-y to SAR 2.2 bn.

Over nine months the loss narrowed to SAR 1.4 bn from SAR 1.6 bn. Revenue, however, was down 11.8% y-o-y, as supply-chain problems cut volumes despite higher prices.

Saudi Kayan is still loss-making, with accumulated losses of SAR 7.3 bn, or 48.5% of capital — just below the 50% threshold that triggers additional disclosure and board/shareholder action under Saudi rules. The question for 4Q is whether operating performance holds without the SAR 129 mn provision reversal.

SAB holds up against a provision spike

Saudi Awwal Bank’s (SAB) net income barely moved in the third quarter, its modest gains leaning on a tax refund and a surge in investment income while core lending income held flat. The bank reported net income of SAR 2.17 bn in 3Q 2026, up 1% y-o-y, according to a Tadawul filing. Total income from financing grew 3.7% to SAR 4.7 bn, and total investment income was down 12.5% to SAR 1.1 bn.

What moved the needle: Operating income rose 5.3% to SAR 3.84 bn, carried by the investment book, while operating expenses edged up just 0.8%. Net investment income jumped 157% off a low base, and the bank booked gains on the sale of FVOCI debt instruments as it trimmed its investment portfolio 9.3% over the year to SAR 97.8 bn.

Provisions jumped, and the bank pushed back: The net charge for expected credit losses rose to SAR 362 mn in the quarter from SAR 82 mn a year earlier — a move the bank called idiosyncratic and tied to revised forward-looking models, stressing that asset quality remains robust. Over the nine months, the charge rose a more measured 21% to SAR 534 mn. A regulatory change also weighed, cutting credit-card fee income after new rules raised card-scheme costs.

The book grew where it lends: The loan book expanded 11% y-o-y to SAR 325.2 bn as of September, while customer deposits grew 3.3% to SAR 325.4 bn and investments shrank 9.3% to SAR 97.8 bn. Total assets rose 6.4% to SAR 474 bn.

SAB’s 9M net income grew 2.8% y-o-y to SAR 6.58 bn on a lower tax charge after a refund on qualifying government sukuk and bond investments. Total income from financing was up 3.8% y-o-y to SAR 13.6 bn and total income from investment was down 6% y-o-y to SAR 3.4 bn.

ICYMI- SAB’s 2Q net income rose 9.6%, mainly because credit-loss charges fell 97.7%.

SAIB slips as costs rise

Saudi Investment Bank’s (SAIB) net income slipped 2.2% y-o-y to SAR 506.9 mn in 3Q 2026 as higher operating costs outweighed a marginal increase in income, the bank said in a Tadawul filing. Total income from financing edged down 0.3% to SAR 1.9 bn, while total investment income rose 1.8% to SAR 648.8 mn. Total operating income edged up 0.3% to SAR 1.05 bn, while operating expenses before provisions rose 4.1% to SAR 438.3 mn.

Core income held up: Net special commission income rose 5.1% y-o-y, which SAIB tied to lower funding costs, and provisions eased 10.9% to SAR 53.9 mn on improved credit quality. The composition shifted sharply underneath — net income from financing fell 21.8% to SAR 541 mn while net investment income more than doubled to SAR 360.4 mn.

What weighed on earnings: Total operating expenses, including provisions, increased 2.2% y-o-y on higher administrative and employee-related costs, partly offset by lower depreciation and amortization expenses. Weaker FX income and unrealized losses on financial instruments kept total operating income mostly flat despite the core gain.

The 9M picture held up better: Net income rose 1.5% y-o-y to SAR 1.56 bn on a 1.4% increase in operating income to SAR 3.21 bn, which the bank attributed to higher net special commission income (up 2.0%), banking-service fees, and gains on debt-security disposals, partly offset by weaker exchange income. Total financing income was up 2.2% y-o-y to SAR 5.5 bn and investment income was up 6.1% y-o-y to SAR 1.9 bn.

Deposits outpaced lending: Customer deposits grew 14.8% y-o-y to SAR 120.76 bn as of September, nearly twice the 7.6% growth in the loan and advances portfolio to SAR 119.04 bn. Total assets expanded 8.5% to SAR 189.93 bn.

REMEMBER- Deposit growth outpaced lending across the sector in 2Q, giving Saudi banks more headroom to lend.

Tadweeer’s cost squeeze eases

National Environmental Recycling Co. (Tadweeer) nearly tripled its net income to SAR 31.5 mn in 3Q, a 186.5% y-o-y jump, as revenue more than tripled (up 202%) to SAR 780.9 mn, according to a Tadawul filing.

What powered the surge: Expanded production capacity lifted sales volumes by 73% y-o-y, while export sales value jumped 212%, and domestic sales value rose 174%; recycling-services revenue added more.

Earnings are closing in on sales. The gap between net income growth and revenue growth has narrowed every quarter this year, from net income up 12.1% y-o-y on 84.5% higher revenue in 1Q, to 154.5% on 183.6% in 2Q, to this quarter’s near-match. Better collection of receivables cut expected credit-loss charges, and financing costs eased, helping the bottom line catch up.

But the 9M picture still shows the strain. Net income rose 94.7% y-o-y to SAR 73.3 mn over the first nine months of 2026, against a 154.8% jump in revenue to SAR 1.92 bn. Most of that shortfall dates to 1H, when Tadweeer said higher shipping and ins. costs — which it tied to geopolitical developments and market volatility — held back earnings growth.

A one-off boost for Electrical Industries

Electrical Industries’ net income rose 10.3% y-o-y to SAR 177.7 mn in 3Q, but a one-off refund did the lifting, according to a Tadawul filing. The figure includes SAR 26.1 mn the company recovered from the General Authority for Competition after an appeals court overturned a fine. Strip it out and net income was some SAR 151.6 mn — down c. 6% from SAR 161.1 mn a year earlier, by our math.

Revenue rose 12.6% y-o-y to SAR 630.5 mn, on demand across sectors, particularly high-voltage substations, infrastructure, and new industrial projects including oil and gas. The company credited a richer product mix and better margins on some products.

Geopolitics is starting to bite: Revenue fell 11% q-o-q from SAR 708.6 mn as project deliveries were delayed by the geopolitical situation, the company said. Net income fell 16% from SAR 211.5 mn, which it attributed to lower sales, higher shipping and ins. costs, and supply-chain disruptions.

The 9M read was stronger: Net income rose 37.7% y-o-y to SAR 580 mn, while revenue increased 25.2% to SAR 2 bn on the same demand drivers, partly offset by higher selling and distribution expenses and finance costs.

Volume bumps United Carton’s 3Q

United Carton Industries Company (UCIC) saw net income rise 40.5% y-o-y to SAR 29 mn in 3Q 2026, according to a Tadawul filing. Revenue rose 9.1% y-o-y to SAR 405.1 mn, on higher sales volumes across all segments and a higher average selling price. The offset was on the cost side: higher raw-material prices, mainly paper, plus freight and logistics costs in local and international markets.

The 9M picture was stronger, with net income climbing 73.1% y-o-y to SAR 81.9 mn on revenue of SAR 1.14 bn, up 8.2% y-o-y, again on broad volume growth and better pricing.

Supply snags halve East Pipes’ earnings

East Pipes Integrated Industry’s net income fell 50.8% y-o-y to SAR 78 mn in 2Q of FY 2026/27 (July-September), as revenue dropped 39.6% to SAR 344.8 mn, the company said in a Tadawul filing. Delays in receiving raw materials — which the company tied to regional geopolitical developments — cut production and sales volumes, while material costs per ton, including higher freight and ins., rose faster than selling prices, according to its earnings release (pdf).

The six-month read was milder: Net income fell 19.3% y-o-y to SAR 200.9 mn in 1H (April-September), and revenue declined 9.5% to SAR 865.5 mn. A stronger 1Q, with revenue up 35% y-o-y, offset part of the 2Q slump.

What cushioned the blow: The balance sheet got stronger during 1H, with liquidity hitting a record SAR 995.2 mn at the end of September, up from SAR 680.9 mn at the end of FY 2025/26, when the company repaid all its bank debt. The order book is also filling up: East Pipes signed three Aramco contracts worth SAR 837 mn (including VAT) in September — the largest haul among the Kingdom’s four listed pipe makers, which have booked more than SAR 3 bn in contracts this year, about 85% of it since the war began.

Dividends: The board approved a 1H dividend of SAR 63 mn, equivalent to SAR 2 per share, with distribution to take place on 5 November, according to another disclosure.

REMEMBER- East Pipes said in July that the regional conflict had forced it to reroute raw-material shipments to Jeddah and Yanbu, with some vessels waiting up to four weeks to berth and shipping costs up 15-20%.

6

MOVES

Enaya taps Vice Chairman Mohammed Aldar as acting CEO

Saudi Enaya Cooperative Ins. has named Mohammed Aldar (LinkedIn) as acting CEO for six months, starting 1 November, according to a Tadawul filing. The board picked Aldar for the permanent job last month, but the Ins. Authority has so far cleared him only in an acting capacity. Aldar is the vice chairman of Enaya’s board of directors and brings more than 25 years of experience across healthcare and ins., including stints as CEO of Accumed Saudi Arabia and COO of Care Medical.

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7

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Aramco stays with NMDC, Khumra opens for bids, Danantara’s first Makkah step

NMDC’s offshore hat-trick

Saudi Aramco handed NMDC Energy three offshore EPC projects worth a combined USD 763.3 mn (c. SAR 2.86 bn), according to an ADX disclosure (pdf) from the Abu Dhabi-listed contractor. NMDC expects to complete the projects within 18-23 months. The disclosure doesn’t name the offshore fields involved or disclose individual project values.

REMEMBER- Aramco is NMDC Energy’s largest client outside the UAE. About a third of the company’s revenue comes from abroad, mostly from Aramco, CEO Ahmed Al Dhaheri said in July last year. The Saudi oil giant extended its long-term offshore services agreement with NMDC Energy for another three years in April 2025, covering engineering, procurement, fabrication, and installation work in Saudi waters. NMDC also has a fabrication yard at Ras Al Khair, where it began production last year.

Warehouse wanted

Mawani launches Khumra EOI: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) has opened expressions of interest from local and international companies to develop and operate the 2.4 mn sqm Khumra Integrated Logistics Zone (KILZ) near Jeddah Islamic Port, according to Zawya.

What it takes: Applicants must show at least SAR 3 bn in financial capacity, a Saudi commercial registration, and a track record of taking a logistics zone to commercial operation. Submissions due on Friday, 20 November.

About the project: The site is built around 1.26 mn sqm of warehousing — frozen, chilled, and dry, aimed at food, pharma, and e-commerce — plus container yards handling up to 500k containers a year, a dedicated corridor putting it roughly 20 minutes from the port, and links to seven western-coast ports.

Danantara closes its Makkah hotel buy

Danantara has closed the first piece of its Makkah investment. The Indonesian sovereign fund has completed its acquisition and taken handover of the Novotel Thakher Makkah, a 1.4k-room hotel, along with 4.4 hectares of plots inside the SAR 26 bn Thakher Makkah development, it said in a press release.

REMEMBER- We covered the commitment last week, when Danantara earmarked more than SAR 6 bn for the project — the hotel, 14 plots, and the bulk set aside to build out hotel rooms and retail for Hajj and Umrah pilgrims.

8

PLANET FINANCE

IMF sees GCC’s non-oil economy shrinking 0.8% this year as war spreads beyond oil

The GCC’s non-oil economy is set to contract 0.8% this year before growing 4.5% in 2027, according to the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook report for the Middle East and Central Asia (pdf). The bloc as a whole is forecast to shrink 4.8% this year before rebounding 9.1% in 2027, a 6.8-percentage-point cut from the 2% growth the IMF expected in April.

Next year’s rebound won’t make up for lost ground. Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said last week that Gulf output would still be below its pre-war trajectory in 2030, citing lasting damage to some sectors, disrupted infrastructure, and the extra spending needed to build resilience.

The Gulf’s financial cushions are getting thinner. The GCC’s combined fiscal deficit is set to widen to 2.3% of GDP this year from 0.8% in 2025, and its current account surplus to narrow to 1.3% of GDP from 5%. Subsidies, price controls, and currency pegs have limited how much of the jump in commodity prices reaches consumers, but at a fiscal cost. Meanwhile, GCC inflation is projected to rise to 2.7%.

The squeeze varies by country. The World Economic Outlook last week projected that the UAE’s current account surplus will shrink to 4.8% of GDP this year from 13.3% in 2025, while Qatar’s surplus is expected to narrow to 7.1% from 16.4%. Meanwhile, Kuwait’s surplus is expected to narrow to 18.3% from 22.7%, and Bahrain’s surplus is forecast to shrink to 3.6% from 5.0%. Saudi Arabia’s deficit is projected to widen to 3.5% from 2.6%. Oman is the exception, with the report expecting it to swing from a 1.1% deficit to a 5.0% surplus, in line with it being the only GCC economy still growing.

REMEMBER- Last week’s World Economic Outlook put the Gulf’s biggest economies on track to shrink this year, assuming the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening in March. Saudi Arabia is forecast to contract 3.3% this year before growing 7.9% in 2027, while the UAE is expected to shrink 3.9% before expanding 7.7%. Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain face double-digit contractions of 15.6%, 16.7%, and 11.3%, followed by rebounds of 18.8%, 17.1%, and 13.9%. Oman is the GCC exception, growing 4.1% this year. Outside the Gulf, Egypt is forecast to grow 5.1% this year and 4.7% in 2027.

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Sukuk/bond market index

892.33

+0.6% (YTD: -2.9%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

148.11

0.0% (YTD: -2.5%)

VIX (Fear gauge)

19.45

+2.2% (YTD: +30.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 2.3% last Thursday on turnover of SAR 4.8 bn. The index is down 7.6% YTD.

In the green: Al Etihad Cooperative Ins. (+10%), Jazan Development and Investment (+9.4%), and Arabian Contracting Services (+2.8%).

In the red: Electrical Industries (-10%), Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores (-10%), and Umm Al Qura Cement (-10%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.8% last Thursday on turnover of SAR 32.4 mn. The index is down 8% YTD.

In the green: Alwaha REIT Fund (+9.9%), Molan Steel (+8.7%), and Alfakhera for Mens Tailoring (+6.1%).

In the red: Khaled Dhafer and Brothers for Logistics Services (-9.8%), Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars (-9.1%), and Natural Gas Distribution (-6.5%).


25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

DECEMBER

14-16 December (Monday-Wednesday): The Innovation Driven Water Sustainability Conference (IDWS 2026), Jeddah

2027

JANUARY

12-14 January (Tuesday-Thursday): The Future Minerals Forum (FMF), Riyadh.

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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