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Monday, 26 Oct 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Ipo Watch
Development Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar

CBE expected to hold rates Thursday as the EGP slides past 55

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Today at a glance

1

The Big Story Today

Analysts expect the CBE to hold rates on Thursday, with some warning a hike is back in play.
2

IPO WATCH

BdC’s Hussein Abaza on why the bank is listing now, and what comes after.
3

DEVELOPMENT WATCH

Egypt Forum closes with a scoreboarded 2027-2030 program and a bigger pitch to private investors.
4

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

IMF lands in Cairo for the final review, with divestments, energy subsidies and tax on the table.
5

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

EGX reworks its SME index, replacing market-cap weighting with equal weighting.
6

Also on our Radar

Grova hands Hassan Allam Construction a second USD 500 mn EastHills contract.
7

PLANET FINANCE

Record sukuk issuance lifts Islamic finance as GCC governments lean on the market.
8

BLACKBOARD

Education Ministry turns down requests to keep Arabic and history out of final scores at international schools.

Monday, 26 Oct 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Ipo Watch
Development Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

IMF lands in Cairo for the final review, with divestments, energy subsidies and tax on the table

Good morning, lovely people. The IMF mission is in town earlier than we expected for the eighth and final review of our USD 8 bn Extended Fund Facility, plus the last review under the RSF. Sources tell us the talks cover asset sales, energy subsidies, and tax. More on that below in What We’re Tracking.

This makes Banque du Caire’s IPO more than a bank story — officials are counting on it to strengthen their hand in those talks. CEO Hussein Abaza makes the pitch that BdC is “a private sector bank in everything but ownership” — a turnaround he says is finished, not still in progress. We have more insights on the IPO story in our recap of Abaza’s sit-down with our Editor-in-Chief Patrick FitzPatrick for EnterpriseAM’s Making It podcast.

What can be expected this Thursday at the MPC’s monthly meeting? Analysts tell us to mostly expect the CBE to leave rates unchanged, with fuel prices frozen through December keeping inflation contained. The trouble is the EGP — weakening past 55 to the USD — while foreign investors are net sellers of local debt, and some analysts see a defensive hike back in play.

Then there’s what comes after the IMF’s final review. That now has a name and a scoreboard: the National Economic Transformation Program 2027-2030, closed out at Egypt Forum. Read all the details of the program in our news well below.

***

ARE YOU MORE OF A LISTENER? Morning Drive is a 10-minute summary of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or driving through the morning rush. And if you like it, tell your friends to tell their friends. They can find us on Apple, Spotify, or wherever they get their podcasts.

***

The last lap

The IMF is in town for its final review: An IMF mission arrived in Cairo yesterday to start talks on the eighth and final review of our USD 8 bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the last review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), a government official tells EnterpriseAM. That’s weeks ahead of the second half of November we had been told to expect last week. Clearing both reviews would unlock some USD 2.3 bn, with about USD 1.5 bn under the EFF and USD 800 mn under the RSF.

The talks should take about two weeks, Mohamed Maait, IMF executive director representing the Arab group, tells EnterpriseAM. He expects both reviews to go through since the program has met its targets.

What’s on the table: The mission will meet the finance and planning ministries and the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to go over the private sector’s role in the economy, state asset sales, exchange rate flexibility, and whether monetary policy is in line with the program’s targets, the official says. Asset sales top the government’s list. The IMF wants about USD 1.5 bn in divestment proceeds by the end of the program, and the state still had close to USD 1 bn to raise as of last week. Officials are counting on the Banque du Caire IPO to strengthen their hand in the talks, the official says. At the reported EGP 5.30 a share, the 45% sale would raise c. USD 680 mn for Banque Misr, by our math.

Energy subsidies are likely to be the toughest item. The government has absorbed higher energy costs instead of passing new price increases on to consumers, the official says. That means skipping two fuel price hikes it had committed to in the seventh review, with fuel prices frozen through end-December. The social considerations behind the delay will come up in the talks, alongside a plan to rebalance energy subsidies and shore up the finances of the oil and electricity sectors, the official adds.

Tax is still on the list: The program prioritizes higher tax revenue, fewer VAT exemptions, and better compliance through digitization and risk management. One benchmark, a 4% withholding tax on freezone companies’ local sales due by end-November, has stalled, we reported last week.

WHAT’S NEXT- The program expires on 15 December, and the government’s post-IMF plan, the National Economic Transformation Program, is due to be finalized by end-December, with clear benchmarks to protect the reform gains, the source says. The government doesn’t appear keen on another IMF program for now and plans to lean on the Fund’s technical assistance instead, officials told us last week. More on the National Economic Transformation Program below.

The weight is over

The EGX is switching its SME market index to equal weighting, so a company’s size will no longer set its weight in the gauge. From 1 December, Tamayuz becomes Tamayuz All-Share EWI, with every constituent carrying the same share of the index instead of being weighted by freefloat market cap, according to an EGX bulletin issued yesterday. The old Tamayuz capped any single name at 35% of the index by freefloat-adjusted market cap, under the methodology EGX set at launch in 2021.

Two rules now govern entry: a company must comply with the SME market’s regulations, and its shares must have traded during the review period. The EGX says the traded-during-review rule keeps the index aligned with actual trading activity in the SME market.

The review cycle shifts with the methodology: Full reviews will take effect on the first business day of June and December, instead of May and November, with the June review covering November to April and the December review covering May to October. Partial reviews at the end of February and August will only reset each constituent’s Adjustment Weight Factor (AWF), the multiplier that brings weights back in line as share prices drift, taking effect in March and September.

The current Tamayuz keeps its constituents through the end of November, with no review that month. The EGX recalculates the AWF at the end of October and applies it from 1 November to ensure the index stays inside its capping limits until the new method starts.

Why it matters: The SME board is built to shed its biggest names. Once paid-in capital passes EGP 100 mn, a company can apply to move up to the main market, and above EGP 200 mn the move is mandatory under the Financial Regulatory Authority’s listing and delisting rules. Twelve companies have made the jump so far by our count, two of them this year. That is the flaw in a cap-weighted SME index: its heaviest constituents are the ones most likely to graduate. Equal weighting spreads the weight they leave behind, and the traded-during-review rule keeps the gauge tied to a market where trading is thin.

REFRESHER- This is the EGX’s second index methodology overhaul this year. The exchange reworked the EGX30’s selection criteria in August, giving freefloat market cap equal weight with trading activity when ranking companies, with four stocks joining and four leaving the index. That followed changes to the review calendar in July, moving main-market reviews to March and September and requiring results to be announced at least two weeks in advance to give tracking funds time to prepare.

PSA-

WEATHER- Cairo is in for a warm, hazy autumn Monday, with a high of 29°C, and a low of 19°C, holding within a degree of yesterday’s 30/20, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s oddly warmer still on the coast in Alexandria today, with a high of 31°C and a low of 19°C.

The big story abroad

Leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has secured a fourth term as Brazil’s president, winning 51.8% of the vote and beating right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. The result is a setback for US President Donald Trump, who backed Bolsonaro, and could result in continued tense relations between Washington and Latin America’s largest economy.

AI spending clouds strong earnings hopes: Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon are expected to report strong quarterly earnings this week, but investors will be listening closely for what they say about AI. Investors are reportedly torn on the technology. They believe it will drive markets in the long run, but they doubt the hundreds of bns being spent will pay off anytime soon. That’s a sore point now that the spending has pushed several tech giants into negative freecash flow.

Kyiv is ready to talk peace. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine is prepared to join trilateral talks between technical teams from Ukraine, the United States, and Russia. His priorities are an “energy ceasefire, the sea, grain, an all-for-all exchange.” The announcement comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled interest in three-way negotiations during talks with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We look into the pushback as Arabic and history start counting toward international school students’ final scores.

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2

The Big Story Today

Analysts expect CBE to hold rates on Thursday, with some warning a hike is back in play

Most analysts expect the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to keep interest rates on hold at Thursday’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, with the government’s freeze on fuel prices through December keeping a lid on inflation for now. The overnight deposit rate stands at 19% against urban headline inflation of 13.9% in September, a real-rate cushion of about 5.1 percentage points. With the USD past EGP 55 and foreign investors selling local debt, analysts are divided on how long the CBE can stay on hold before a defensive hike comes back into play.

What’s changed since the last meeting: The USD hit a fresh high of EGP 55.89 at the CBE yesterday, days after crossing EGP 55 for the first time on Thursday and passing the previous peak of EGP 54.73 recorded on 7 April. Foreign and regional investors net sold USD 1.13 bn of local debt between Monday and Wednesday last week, while interbank transactions to fund exits from the secondary debt market reached USD 3.1 bn over the week, a banking source told us. The EGX30 fell 3.56% yesterday to its lowest since early April, with foreigners staying small net buyers of listed shares last week. Prices are also picking up m-o-m, with headline inflation at 1.3% in September, up from 0.1% in August, and monthly core inflation at 0.8%, up from 0.3%, CBE data shows.

The case for holding

The investment banks are lined up behind a hold. EFG Hermes expects one, since the decision to keep fuel prices unchanged “will keep inflation contained,” Head of Macroeconomic Analysis Mohamed Abu Basha tells EnterpriseAM. The weaker EGP could add to inflationary pressures, he says, “but it’s too early amidst the ongoing volatility and the geopolitical risks.” CI Capital’s Monsef Morsy also expects a hold, pointing to the last two monthly inflation readings and, “more importantly,” the indexation committee’s decision to keep oil product prices unchanged until December.

HC Securities expects a hold too, with Macro Analyst Heba Monir arguing in a note (pdf) shared with EnterpriseAM that Egyptian debt is still attractive to foreign investors. The latest 364-day T-bill yield of 25.91% implies a real return of 10.5% after the 15% tax on European and US investors, measured against her 11.5% inflation forecast for 2027. The EGP had lost c. 14% against the USD this year and c. 5% this month, even before yesterday’s move. “Although we see this depreciation wave as temporary, it could unfortunately persist until year-end,” she says. Geopolitical instability is adding to net foreign outflows, given Egypt’s heavy import bills for energy and wheat, its external debt dues, and payments owed to foreign oil companies, she says. The fuel freeze has brought her forecast for average inflation in 4Q 2026 down to c. 13% from 14.5%, while she has raised her 2027 average to 11.5% from 10.9%.

Al Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena calls a hike “a luxury Egypt cannot afford.” Faster monthly inflation, a record low EGP, and high energy prices are “mostly symptomatic of transient supply shocks that lack monetary validation,” he says. Hiking to compensate foreign investors for currency risk would be “expensive to execute,” he argues. Even if higher rates drew in more foreign money, commercial banks would likely park it abroad as net foreign assets, which wouldn’t ease pressure on the current account. Higher rates would also hit mid-size and small developers that rely on project finance, many of which are already struggling to deliver units with slow sales and overstretched installment plans.

The highest cost would land on the budget. Corridor rates already exceed nominal GDP growth by about 500 bps, Genena says, with interest payments consuming about 60% of central government revenue despite a 4.9% primary surplus in FY 2025/26. If foreign investors want higher returns to offset FX risk, treasury yields will adjust in the secondary market without the CBE raising corridor rates, he adds.

Economist Iten El Marghoushy expects a hold as well, citing the real-rate cushion and record reserves of USD 57.35 bn at end-September, though that resilience “remains dependent on foreign currency inflows and developments in the exchange rate.” A hike would do little against inflation driven by higher global costs, she argues. Banking expert Sahar El Damaty agrees a hold is the better option, given the CBE’s focus on containing inflation fueled by FX shortages and higher import costs. Foreign currency supply is well below demand, she tells EnterpriseAM, pointing to higher shipping, freight, and ins. costs in the Red Sea, which hurt exports, tourism, and Suez Canal revenues, and to higher US rates drawing portfolio money toward the US.

The risks to a hold

Deutsche Bank, which expects the CBE to keep its rate at 19%, sees the currency as the main risk to that call, according to a research note (pdf). Foreign investors held more than USD 25 bn in T-bills at end-June, the note says, pointing to the USD 13-14 bn drop in their holdings in March 2026 as an example of how much money could leave if sentiment sours again. A further build-up in pressure on the EGP, particularly alongside portfolio outflows, could prompt a hike to protect the real-rate buffer, the bank says. It has raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 15.7% from 14.7%, expecting pass-through from the weaker EGP to more than offset the relief from unchanged fuel prices. That forecast assumes a 10-15% fuel price increase is pushed into 1Q 2027.

El Marghoushy would only see a hike coming if inflation overshoots expectations and eats up the positive real rate, with foreign investors exiting at a faster pace. Higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions “strengthen the case for caution but do not automatically require an immediate rate hike,” she says, with Brent hovering around USD 116-117 a barrel against the USD 75 the government assumed in its budget.

Former Industrial Development Bank chairman Maged Fahmy is the only analyst we spoke to who expects a hike on Thursday to limit hot-money outflows and keep local debt attractive against competing markets. A stronger USD raises the economy’s overall foreign currency needs on top of import costs, he tells EnterpriseAM, since Egypt imports much of its food, energy, raw materials, and production inputs.

When cuts come back

Those who gave a timeline don’t see cuts this year. Genena expects the CBE to stay neutral until year-end. Deutsche Bank expects a gradual resumption of easing in 1Q-2Q 2027, though it says the window for cuts has narrowed and the risks now point to a later start. El Marghoushy is more cautious still. “The decline in annual inflation alone is insufficient to justify resuming monetary easing,” she says, putting the more realistic window for cuts in 2H 2027, and only if regional tensions ease. That’s well behind the 300-400 bps of cuts next year that some international institutions had been penciling in, she adds.

The Fed is the other risk to watch. After a 25 bps hike in September to 3.75-4.00%, it’s widely expected to hold on 28 October, with a Reuters poll pointing to another hike in December. El Marghoushy expects a hike in December or early 2027, warning it could push investors to move more money out of Egypt into US assets. Another US hike would add to the pressure on emerging markets and make FX management harder, El Damaty says.

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3

IPO WATCH

BdC’s Hussein Abaza on why the bank is listing now and what comes next

Banque du Caire (BdC) is due to confirm its IPO price today at the end of a roadshow where CEO Hussein Abaza pitched it as a “private sector bank in everything but ownership.” Abaza explains why BdC chose a listing over a sale to a single buyer and why it’s listing now in conversation with our Editor-in-Chief Patrick FitzPatrick on EnterpriseAM’s podcast Making It, recorded before Banque Misr took the sale to 45% of the bank from 30%.

Why now: BdC’s earlier attempts to list, the last during Covid, pitched a turnaround that was still in progress. This time, Abaza says, “we’re actually bringing it to the market as a successful transformation story that actually happened.” He points to targets set six years ago that the bank has since beaten. Return on equity is in the high 20s and capital adequacy around 22%, while the net interest margin has climbed from below 3% to a blended 7.5%.

Why a listing: An IPO sets a market price so later stakes can be sold at that price at a time of the seller’s choosing, Abaza says. “The market will establish how good or bad the bank is.” His model is CIB, once 51% owned by the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and 49% by Chase Manhattan Bank: NBE bought out Chase, then sold down its stake through a series of public offerings, which he calls “a very, very successful model.”

Abaza judged demand from the investor meetings, where investors in South Africa, the US, the UK, and the GCC came back with follow-ups and detailed questions. “We’re seeing massive demand, at least in the meetings,” he says. The toughest question he faced wasn’t about BdC at all: investors wanted his view on what would happen in the Gulf. When the talk did turn to Egypt, he says, it was less about what had gone wrong than about “how did Egypt come out unscathed?” His answer was access to USD. The EGP weakened from about 46 to the USD to 55-56, but “at every price point there were [USDs] available for local importers,” he says. “The rate can move. It’s about the availability.”

Where the cheap deposits come from

BdC’s 243 branches aren’t many more than its nearest rivals have. What matters is where they are, Abaza says. Some 114 are in rural areas home to 40-45 mn people, where banking penetration is below 20% against a 43% national average, and which generate at least 40% of GDP, by his count. Local staff know their customers, which helps with both deposits and loans.

The branches outside Cairo are a big source of BdC’s cheapest funding, bringing in current and savings accounts (CASA), which pay little or no interest. CASA now makes up 57.5% of BdC’s deposits, up from 30% five years ago, after growing 44% last year, when local-currency deposits rose 28% and total deposits 14%. Deposits grew 9% in the first half of this year, with CASA accounting for 86% of that growth and branches outside Cairo contributing more than 55% of it.

Built for rate cuts

BdC’s margins actually grew last year despite 825 bps of interest rate cuts, which would normally squeeze a bank’s net interest margin, Abaza says. He credits both sides of the balance sheet. On the funding side, the bank focused on gathering cheap deposits. On the lending side, retail loans make up about 34% of the book, at 21-23% fixed, usually for three to five years, which locks in those yields as rates fall and “helps mitigate any NIM compression.” BdC’s margin on EGP business is almost 10%. The bank puts its excess liquidity into government bonds, which he sees as a compelling window as Treasury yields have decoupled from the policy rate: one is there to manage inflation, while the other reflects the budget deficit.

Rate cuts are on pause because of events in the Gulf, he says, with economists expecting easing to resume early next year. By his arithmetic, the top of the central bank’s 7% (±2) inflation target, plus a 3-4% real rate, puts rates at around 12-13%. He expects to get there in “a year, a year and a half,” depending on how quickly the easing cycle resumes.

Partners, and the question of control

Abaza treats fintechs and non-bank lenders as clients more than competition. “They’re not competitors. There has to be cooperation with them.” Since they need bank funding and only banks can take deposits, he expects competition to shift to fees and commissions.

As for the question every minority investor will ask, which is what protects them from a controlling shareholder, Abaza says BdC’s board and management are independent. “We have complete independence as to what to finance, what not to finance,” he says, citing transactions the bank has turned down. Asked whether that includes saying no to state-owned companies, his answer was “Absolutely.” He credits his predecessor, who was mandated to privatize the bank, with stepping back and hiring managers from the private sector. When asked how much of that protection depends on Abaza himself, he said: “It was here before I came.”

WHAT’S NEXT- BdC is expected to start trading on the EGX on or about 2 November, according to the offering circular (pdf). Abaza’s measure of success a year from now is whether investors keep engaging with the bank: “As long as there’s interaction, there’s interest.” Inside the bank, the next push is digital. BdC switched off its old core banking system and switched to a new one on 30 June. Its digital push only began “in earnest” in July, Abaza says, and one thing the app has yet to do is “get new money in.”

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4

DEVELOPMENT WATCH

Egypt Forum closes with a scoreboarded 2027-2030 program and a bigger pitch to private investors

The country’s post-IMF economic framework now has a name, a structure, and a deadline: Planning Minister Ahmed Rostom laid out the National Economic Transformation Program 2027-2030 during a session at the forum. The program has three pillars, four axes, 40 targets, 185 key measures, and 150 performance indicators — including 20 legislative and 25 institutional reforms. (watch, runtime: 18:28). After that, the plan was incorporated into the closing recommendations presented by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly as presidential directives. The program — which is built to take over when Egypt’s USD 8 bn IMF program concludes in December — goes to public dialogue for two months before being finalized.

Most of the numbers inside it are not new. The 6.8% growth target for FY2029/30 is the revision the government already made in June, when it cut the goal from 7.5%. The startup package — USD 5 bn in venture capital, 5k companies, five “unicorns” — is February’s Egypt Startup Charter; the forum launched an executive plan for it, not the targets. What is new is the apparatus: a published set of 40 targets and 150 indicators, a monthly sector review, and implementation monitored by the presidency. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi designated this year’s edition the “Inaugural Egypt Forum” in his closing remarks, making it an annual fixture.

The five sectors the program wagers on — agriculture, manufacturing, ICT, tourism, and energy — already carry about 40% of GDP, roughly 50% of real growth, about 40% of the employed, and USD 3.1 bn of 1H FY2025/26’s investment, Rostom said. The private sector’s standing is the baseline the plan works from: 80% of GDP, 58% of total investment, and 83% of the employed, or about 27 mn people.

The investor-facing machinery is the economic entities platform, which the Cabinet targets launching by end-2027 to cover 468 licensing procedures across 90 government bodies. The Investment Ministry put the re-engineering on a 12-month clock in June: 30 licenses were cleared in May, and 429 are scheduled in four packages running to March 2027, while the platform build itself is put at 18 to 24 months.

On the incentive side, tax and customs relief, land-cost, and licensing concessions will be conditioned on raising local content, aimed at priority industries and designated zones. The export rebate program is to be modernized with more support for priority sectors and higher shipping allocations to target markets, while a services export council is set to be created.

Where the contracts are expected. A national housing program will supply about 1 mn units over four years at an estimated EGP 1 tn with the Tahya Misr Fund, spanning rental, rent-to-own, social housing, and privately developed units. Renewable capacity is projected to reach about 30 GW by end-2028, up from the roughly 27.7 GW in the government’s July roadmap. Gas is the exception: the new 6 bcf / d target for 2030 is below the 6.6 bcf / d the Oil Ministry had been chasing, while crude and condensate are estimated to reach 700k bbl / d.

The scorecard the program will be judged on comprises:

  • Growth of 6.8% by FY2029/30 from 5.1% today;
  • Inflation down to 5-7% by 2030;
  • Unemployment down to 5.5-5.8%;
  • Cultivated land of 12.5 mn feddans;
  • 200k new ICT jobs;
  • Public debt down to about 69.5% of GDP by end-June 2030, with binding ceilings on public and external debt and on sovereign guarantees.

Wage commitments change too: The public-sector minimum wage is set to reach EGP 15k by FY 2029/30, an 87.5% increase on the EGP 8k set in July, and it generally sets the reference for the private-sector floor the National Wages Council decides. Teachers’ minimum income is set to reach EGP 15k within two years — a faster climb than the general minimum wage — and medical-sector allowances are to rise at least 50% by 2030. Spending on services that reach citizens directly is targeted to climb to about EGP 4.8 tn by FY 2029/30 from EGP 2.3 tn, with no new tax burden on the middle class.

The sessions put the counterargument on the record. Federation of Egyptian Industries head Mohamed El Sewedy listed bureaucracy, slow execution of government decisions, and policies that change with ministers as the main obstacles to industrial investment, warning that relying on meetings with ministers to fix individual problems is no substitute for a clear, stable industrial policy (watch, runtime: 17:49). Ziad Bahaa-Eldin, former FRA and Gafi chairman, has made the same case to us back in June: fee cuts and one-stop shops are “the visible surface,” while what investors need is predictability. “As an investor, I can live with delay if I know it’s coming,” he said.

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5

Also on our Radar

Grova hands Hassan Allam Construction a second USD 500 mn EastHills contract

Grova Developments awarded Hassan Allam Construction (HAC) an additional USD 500 mn in construction works for Phase II of Grova EastHills, adding 334 acres to push the East Cairo community past 600 acres across two phases, according to a press release (pdf). Phase I — 305 feddans in New Cairo, backed by a USD 550 mn turnkey contract — is fully sold out, which the group cites as the driver of the expansion and the reason construction is being accelerated.

IN CONTEXT- Phase II adds new villa typologies across a wider size range, an enlarged main clubhouse that stays residents-only, and a new casual all-day retail destination, alongside the existing premium zone of fine dining, high-end retail, and offices. It’s the Egypt leg of the vertically integrated model Grova has been running, now also at West Cairo’s Grova Westfields, Riyadh’s Noor Khuzam, and Oman’s Madinat Al Irfan, and it lifts HAC’s combined EastHills take past USD 1 bn.

Grain gain

The government plans to raise the winter season procurement price for local wheat to EGP 2.65k per ardeb (150 kg), up 6% from EGP 2.5k, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said at the close of Egypt Forum 2026. The same package launches a winter 2026/27 support initiative to prepare 1 mn feddans of holdings smaller than two feddans for wheat, using mechanization units from Agriculture Ministry bodies handling land improvement and mechanization, with service costs cut by 50%.

IN CONTEXT- The increase extends the state’s premium pricing policy. Prices were set at EGP 2.25k-2.35k an ardeb (roughly USD 313-327 per ton) before the 2025 sowing season, then raised in April 2026 to EGP 2.5k by Supply Minister Sherif Farouk as regional instability lifted import costs, leaving the state paying roughly USD 50 a ton above international prices. The incentive moved farmers. The state bought just over 5 mn tons of local wheat in the 2026 season (April to August) — beating its 5 mn target and up about 30% from 4 mn tons in 2025 — on a record 3.7 mn feddans of harvested area, up from 3.1 mn a year earlier.

Pass the tapas

The Alexandria Port Authority proposed a joint MoU with the Port of Barcelona to formalize cooperation on maritime transport, trade, and logistics, the authority said in a statement. The authority hosted a Spanish delegation that included the Port of Barcelona, the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce and Mercabarna, the city’s wholesale food market, alongside the Egyptian Chamber of Commerce in Alexandria. Talks covered joint logistics investment, port management expertise, and ways to move Egyptian exports faster into European markets, building on cooperation that already exists between the two ports.

Why it matters: Spain is one of the fastest-growing markets for Egyptian goods — the two countries traded about EUR 3.3 bn in 2025, with the Spanish trade office in Cairo targeting EUR 4 bn. Egyptian exports to Spain climbed 25.5% to EUR 939 mn in 1H 2026, and food exports more than doubled to EUR 168 mn in the first seven months of the year. Barcelona is not the only Spanish port courting this traffic: PortCastelló, which handles about 20% of Spain-Egypt trade, brought a trade mission to Cairo and Alexandria in July.

Customs in your pocket

Nafeza is preparing a new version of its mobile app that will let traders follow their customs transactions and shipments from their phones, a source at Misr Technology Services (MTS), which runs the platform, tells EnterpriseAM. The update promises a faster app with a redesigned interface and some services available on mobile for the first time, the source says. Traders will be able to manage their Nafeza accounts from their phones from day one on both Android and iOS. The source didn’t say which services are new or when the update will go live.

The new version is built for a paperless system, with faster transactions through services updated to end paper documents at customs ports on Thursday, the source says. The Customs Authority stops accepting paper from Thursday, 29 October, under a decision we reported last week. Importers registering on Nafeza will need an e-seal tied to their tax ID and an electronic signature.

IN CONTEXT- Nafeza’s current app has offered declaration status checks, tariff searches, and customs exchange rates for years. The bigger goal is faster clearance. Average release times fell to about 5.8 days in August from around 16 days in June 2024, against a two-day target, Investment Minister Mohamed Farid has said. The platform is also bringing overland freight into the system for the first time.

Xceed buys into India

Telecom Egypt’s outsourcing arm Xceed said it acquired an unnamed Indian business process outsourcing (BPO) company in mid-2026 and is now running more than 500 staff in Hyderabad on voice and non-voice support for international clients, making India its sixth market after Egypt, Morocco, Mauritius, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, Veto reports.

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6

PLANET FINANCE

Record sukuk issuance lifts Islamic finance as GCC governments lean on the market

Global Islamic finance assets rose 9% y-o-y to USD 6.5 tn in 2025, with sukuk issuance hitting a record USD 291.4 bn as GCC governments leaned on the market under prolonged lower oil prices, according to the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD) and LSEG’s Islamic Finance Development Report (pdf). Issuance value rose 14.5% y-o-y in 2025, while outstanding sukuk rose 11% to exceed USD 1.1 tn — growth the report attributes primarily to the GCC as fiscal pressures rose across the region amid rising global economic uncertainty.

Saudi Arabia became the world’s largest sukuk market by outstanding value for the first time in 2025, holding USD 1.47 tn in total Islamic finance assets. It also ranked second in the Islamic Finance Development Indicator (IFDI) 2026, behind Malaysia.

The Iran conflict is testing the industry, albeit unevenly. GCC Islamic banks’ capital and liquidity positions support their long-term growth prospects, while geopolitical uncertainty and slower economic activity weigh on operating conditions, according to Moody’s Ratings (pdf).

Islamic funds were the fastest-growing major segment, with assets under management up 22% y-o-y to USD 375 bn on strong equity performance and wider adoption in both established and emerging markets, LSEG said. Iran led the segment with USD 103 bn in assets, followed by the UK (USD 67 bn), the UAE (USD 51 bn), and Malaysia (USD 44 bn), with Saudi Arabia ranking fifth with USD 34 bn.

Islamic banking remained the industry’s largest segment, with assets reaching USD 4.6 tn, accounting for 71% of global Islamic finance assets. The LSEG’s report points to the sector growing 8% y-o-y, supported by expansion in the GCC, Southeast Asia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Takaful assets rose 9% y-o-y to USD 146 bn, supported by demand for shariah-compliant protection products, wider use of digital distribution channels, and bancatakaful partnerships.

The outlook: LSEG expects Islamic finance assets to exceed USD 10.5 tn by 2030, assuming average annual growth of around 9% on Islamic banking expansion, growing sukuk issuance, broader adoption in emerging markets, and increasing demand for sustainable and digital financial products.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets were in the red earlier today. Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.5%, while South Korea’s Kospi was down 1.3%, shedding almost 19% so far in October. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.1%.

EGX30

49,234

-3.6% (YTD: +17.7%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 55.76

Sell 55.90

USD (CIB)

Buy 55.77

Sell 55.87

Interest rates (CBE)

19.00% deposit

20.00% lending

Tadawul

9,439

-2.7% (YTD: -10.0%)

ADX

9,588

-1.2% (YTD: -4.1%)

DFM

5,734

-1.4% (YTD: -5.5%)

S&P 500

7,624

-0.5% (YTD: +11.4%)

FTSE 100

10,690

-0.3% (YTD: +7.6%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,068

-0.3% (YTD: -4.7%)

Brent crude

USD 116.72

+3.1%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.64

-5.6%

Gold

USD 4,008

-1.3%

BTC

USD 80,302

-0.1% (YTD: -8.3%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,141

+0.1% (YTD: +14.9%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

148.11

0.0% (YTD: -2.5%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

19.45

+2.2% (YTD: +30.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 3.6% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 7.2 bn (36.4% below the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 17.7% YTD.

In the green: Mopco (+4.2%), Emaar Misr (+2.4%), and ADIB (+0.2%).

In the red: Beltone Holding (-16.5%), Edita (-10.3%), and Juhayna (-10.1%).

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Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Blackboard
7

BLACKBOARD

Education Ministry turns down requests to keep Arabic and history out of final scores at int’l schools

Education Minister Mohamed Abdel Latif has turned down international school owners’ request to keep Arabic and history out of students’ final scores. Every Egyptian student at an international school will study history, Arabic, and religion, he said at the Egypt Forum on 19 October, calling the matter settled.

School owners say the change adds to students’ load. Nader Younan, chairman of the Foundation of International Schools in Egypt (FISE), made the request at the forum. Schools have no problem teaching the subjects and have taught them for years, Younan said, but international certificates already carry more subjects than the Egyptian baccalaureate. He also asked the minister to revisit the cap on annual fee increases, currently 7%.

Abdel Latif says students have had four years’ notice. The decision applies to Egyptian students who earned their preparatory certificate in 2024/25 once they reach Grade 12. Arabic and history will each count for 10% of the international certificate equivalency score, with the remaining 80% coming from the certificate’s own subjects, including GPA, a government official tells us. Students pay less attention to subjects that don’t count toward their totals, Abdel Latif said.

What schools must teach: The ministry’s 2024 decision requires international schools to teach Arabic from kindergarten through Grade 12 and religion from Grade 1, as we reported at the time. Social studies runs from Grades 4 to 9, and history replaces it in Grades 10 to 12. The rules apply to kindergarten through Grade 9 since 2024/25 and to students entering Grade 10 as of 2025/26.

Schools have already reworked their timetables, parents say. Before the rules took effect, international schools had more say over how much time they gave to national identity subjects (Arabic, religion, and history or social studies), and some taught elementary students Arabic as little as once a week, sources tell us. Parents at the American International School (AIS) and Hayah International Academy say Arabic classes and schoolwork have since increased. One AIS parent says Grade 6 Arabic rose from two periods a week to six. A Hayah parent describes more reading, memorization, and assessments on top of international coursework. Younger students still learning to read and write Arabic are finding the jump to written work and history harder, some parents say.

The ministry doesn’t yet know how many students need help. International schools held Arabic placement tests on 15 September, but the ministry has set no deadline for the results and is still waiting on them, the official says. Six American and British schools taught their students no Arabic in recent years, and the ministry will address those cases starting in the early grades, the official adds. Its remedial reading and writing programs have reached about 1.83 mn public school students and reduced the number who struggle, according to the official. The ministry is considering bringing them to international schools where results show a need, sending in government teachers if necessary.

For IGCSE students, the classes have already started. The ministry required schools to start compulsory Arabic and history classes on 11 October for International General Certificate of Secondary Education (IGCSE) students, running through the November exam session, with history at 10am and Arabic at noon, swapping order each week, the official says. After the November exams, students move into regular classes and attendance schedules.

Coursework determines who can sit the ministry exams. It “does not count directly toward the 20%,” the official tells us, which comes entirely from the ministry’s final exam results. To qualify, students must attend regularly and earn at least 60% of their coursework marks, which cover projects, homework and classwork, attendance and behavior, weekly assessments, and two monthly assessments. The ministry sets the exams, held in May at no charge and again in July for a fee, with the higher result counting. Students can retake the exam for up to four academic years.

The ministry is pressing ahead despite court rulings against the rollout. The Administrative Court has ruled against the weighting on a case-by-case basis, but those rulings are suspended while the ministry appeals them, according to the official. No date has been set for the appeals. The rules cover American Diploma, IGCSE, and International Baccalaureate (IB) students, with no full or partial exemptions, the official says.

Parents have also taken their case to Parliament. MP Wafaa El Sarrangawi has filed a request for a briefing asking the government to cancel the 20% weighting, she tells us, after receiving complaints from thousands of parents of IGCSE, American Diploma, and IB students in Egypt and abroad. Applying the rule to students who started school under admission rules set by the Supreme Council of Universities changes the terms of university competition after their schooling began, according to the request, which we reviewed.

Unequal footing tops the MP’s list of complaints. British certificate students now take 10 subjects on the literary track and 12 on the science track, against five for Thanaweya Amma and six for the Egyptian baccalaureate, El Sarrangawi says. Students who miss the cutoff for public or national universities could turn to private ones, adding costs for middle-income families, she warns. She wants the minister to clarify the timeline and curriculum, saying no clear syllabus or exam specifications exist. She proposes either making the two subjects pass-or-fail or letting students pass them in their first university years.

The ministry has warned 35 schools so far. Those schools have since started scheduling Arabic and history classes, ending unlicensed homeschooling arrangements and holding in-person assessments, the official says. Schools that enroll students who don’t attend or keep inaccurate attendance records risk losing their license. The ministry hasn’t said how many schools it has inspected or penalized. The rules on national identity subjects are not up for discussion, the official adds.

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CALENDAR

OCTOBER

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): IEX Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

29 October (Thursday): Customs goes fully paperless on Nafeza registration; advance-ruling service opens.

NOVEMBER

5-7 November (Thursday-Saturday): ICA Annual Conference 2026, Cairo.

6-8 November (Friday-Sunday): Global Entrepreneurship Festival, JW Marriott Hotel, New Cairo.

7-10 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT Forum, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo.

10 November (Tuesday): Cityscape Egypt Forum, Cairo.

14 November (Saturday): Rolling mills’ Administrative Court challenge.

16-17 November (Monday-Tuesday): World Economic Forum’s (WEF) first dedicated business meeting in Egypt + MENA, New Capital.

DECEMBER

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Food Africa, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

11-12 December (Friday-Saturday): ISER International Conference, Cairo.

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

17-20 December (Thursday-Sunday): MacTech Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

Early November 2026: Banque du Caire shares expected to begin trading on the EGX.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Agri Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

29 September - 2 October (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape Egypt Exhibition, Cairo.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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