US raises tariffs on Egypt to 12.5%

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Egypt’s petroleum sector keeps recovering as crude production hits a two-year peak

Good morning, friends. We’re back from the long weekend with a trade-and-capital-flows type of morning and a bucket load of news to work through.

Washington raised the tariff on most Egyptian goods to 12.5% on Friday in the same week we opened a lane for US-made vehicles into the local market. Whether that’s coincidence or choreography is the question on our mind.

Aramco is routing more Saudi crude through Sidi Kerir using our coastline as the workaround to sidestep Houthi trouble — a reminder of how much of the region’s energy logistics runs through Egypt when the Red Sea turns hostile.

Brussels wired EUR 1.5 bn on Thursday, the second tranche of the EUR 4 bn Macro-Financial Assistance program. The concessional funding lands at the moment the tariff picture with Washington gets less favorable is its own kind of macro hedge.

ALSO– Marriott has signed with Misr Italia and People & Places to develop 11 hotels and 1.8k+ rooms across five mixed-use projects.

***

ARE YOU MORE OF A LISTENER? Morning Drive is a 10-minute summary of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or driving through the morning rush. And if you like it, tell your friends to tell their friends. They can find us on Apple, Spotify, or wherever they get their podcasts.

***

Destination Sahel is back for a second edition — and this year, it's not just about the beach.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds are pouring billions into the North Coast, Gulf buyers keep showing up despite regional headwinds, and a new 400km master plan could reshape the whole coastline before summer’s out.

Over this season's series, stay tuned to see who's really buying Sahel, where the money's coming from, and what could still go wrong.

Plus, the hotels, restaurants, and openings worth checking out this summer.

Coming straight to your inbox — Wednesday, July 29.

Oil’s comeback continues

Egypt’s petroleum product exports surpassed 2.3 mn tons in 1H 2026, matching 2025’s full-year figure, as crude production hits a two-year peak, according to an Oil Ministry statement. Backed by an 80% refinery utilization rate that has strengthened domestic supply and cut imports, export volumes are projected to reach 2.5 mn in the second half of the year. Petroleum product exports between January and June 2026 generated some USD 2.3 bn in revenue.

Petroleum’s second wind still strong: For the first time since 1Q 2023/24, the local petroleum sector shifted back into positive territory, growing 0.7% in 3Q FY 2025/26 thanks to increased local production of LPG, crude, and condensates. This follows the government’s multi-pronged strategy to do just that: settling USD 6.1 bn in arrears to international oil companies; adopting an adjustable R-Factor profit-sharing model; and kicking off a USD 1.3 bn exploration campaign to drill 101 new wells this year. To prevent a buildup of arrears, the government is reportedly set to pay foreign oil firms nearly USD 240 mn monthly under a new mechanism to stay current on energy sector dues.

PLUS- The Mediterranean’s Fayoum North 4 well is set to come online soon, adding 80 mn cubic feet of gas per day to Egypt’s production, thanks to efforts by the local petroleum sector and energy giant BP, according to an Oil Ministry statement.

Phosphate, upgraded

Genesis Mining Egypt is looking to invest USD 930 mn in phases in an integrated phosphate mining and processing project in New Valley, under an MoU signed with the Egyptian Mineral Resources and Mining Industries Authority (MRMIA), according to an Oil Ministry statement. The project would move phosphate downstream, from mining and ore processing into phosphoric acid, fertilizers, and higher-value phosphate products. The statement did not specify the number or length of the investment phases.

The scale: The project aims to develop phosphate mining operations with capacity of up to 20 mn tons of ore annually, alongside processing and concentration units with handling up to 4 mn tons of phosphate concentrates a year. That long-term ceiling is on the scale of Egypt’s total current production — the country mined around 16 mn tons of phosphate ore in the 10 months to April 2025, up from 11 mn tons in FY 2023-24. Genesis is also studying an industrial complex that could produce up to 500k tons of phosphoric acid annually and around 500k tons of fertilizers and phosphate products.

Still early days: The USD 930 mn figure rests on the project’s initial investment vision and study results. The next step is a broad geological and exploration program — including 2.5 mn linear meters of drilling — to update reserve estimates and secure the feedstock the industrial complex would need. Teams from Genesis and MRMIA will then begin geological studies, exploration work, ore-processing tests, and industrial-options assessments.

REMEMBER- This is the latest in a busy mining-policy pipeline, not a standalone phosphate MoU. We reported in January that China’s Xingfa was planning a USD 2 bn phosphate-to-specialty-chemicals complex in the Golden Triangle, while MRMIA later tapped Spain’s Xcalibur for Egypt’s first comprehensive airborne mineral survey in 42 years. The authority also launched its first open-sector exploration bid round in June, replacing single-deadline tenders with rolling applications, and is courting Australian miners as the government prepares a fresh Eastern Desert push.

GO DEEPER- We went inside one Eastern Desert concession this month to see how lower rents, faster approvals, a smaller state stake, and fresh geological data are meant to make Egypt’s mining pitch bankable.

Industrial investment

The Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE) is moving ahead with an industrial investment sub-fund, targeting machinery, low-voltage EV batteries, pharma, packaging, and phosphate fertilizers, Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Mohamed Farid said, according to a statement. The fund aims to deepen local manufacturing, localize advanced technology, and pull in long-term institutional capital to narrow the trade deficit, Farid said.

Also on the table: Farid separately proposed a national initiative, run under the Prime Minister’s office, to widen the exporter base governorate by governorate, screening companies on export readiness before connecting them to international buyers. He also floated an Africa-focused fund to help Egyptian private companies expand across the continent.

IN CONTEXT- We reported last month that Farid expected the industrial fund to be finalized between August and September as part of a pipeline in which Beltone, EFG Hermes, Al Ahly Pharos, CI Capital, and Cairo Capital have been working with the SFE since March on debt, equity, and transferable-securities vehicles for manufacturers. That includes two funds with CI Capital and Cairo Capital targeting EGP 5 bn, in which the SFE plans a 10-20% stake. The same report also covered the Africa fund’s early targets — Kenya, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire — and focused on banking, tourism, healthcare, and education, which this week’s announcement didn’t add to. Fund sizes, mandates, and launch dates remain undisclosed.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another sunny day in Cairo, with a high of 35°C and a low of 25°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a few degrees cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 30°C and a low of 23°C.

The big story abroad

A handful of headlines are capturing the attention of the foreign pages this morning — those include:

After 13 straight nights of heavy bombardment, Washington halted airstrikes over Iran over the weekend without any official explanation. While US President Donald Trump indicated that a “massive attack” on the Islamic Republic remains under consideration, the pause may stem from concerns that the conflict is depleting Washington’s stockpile of air defense weapons and anti-missile interceptors. Iranian state media did not report any strikes over the weekend.

Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthis targeted Saudi Arabia over the weekend, firing missiles and drones at Aramco assets in the port towns of Jizan and Yanbu. A Saudi-led coalition retaliated by striking military Houthi military positions yesterday, according to Yemeni media sources.

Investors are wagering on a Federal Reserve rate hike as soon as this Wednesday, amid a spike in oil prices following the recent regional geopolitical escalations. Markets are now placing a 38% probability of a quarter point hike, up from 13% last week, according to CME Group data.

Also in the region: Private equity giants Blackstone, KKR, and Brookfield agreed to buy a USD 16 bn stake in Kuwait’s national oil pipelines network, securing a 49% stake in a JV with the Kuwait Petroleum Company. The companies will lease and rent back the country’s 320 km pipeline infrastructure. The transaction marks Kuwait’s largest foreign direct investment ticket.

Fed up with costs, companies thrift AI models: US Firms are embracing lower-priced AI models, including China-made software, in addition to OpenAI and Anthropic’s offerings. Businesses are realizing that expensive models being touted as the most powerful are not appropriate for mundane tasks, resulting in a pivot to a so-called “tokenomical” mindset.

Wildfires in France and Spain have prompted the evacuation of some 260k people. Drought conditions and extreme heat have exacerbated out-of-control forest fires this summer. In France alone, just under 98k hectares have been burned, marking a new record.

The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is back — and this year, we’re giving the full day to the one question on every business leader's mind: What does AI actually mean for your company, your people, and your own job?

Leaders in New York, London, Abu Dhabi, and Singapore are asking the same things, and nobody has built a playbook that works yet. We're all figuring it out in real time — and for Egypt, the stakes are unusually high.

Egypt could leapfrog a generation on the back of this technology — or watch AI hollow out the industries and jobs we can't afford to lose. The leaders who get literate early will be the ones who get to decide which road we take.

Every session on stage answers one question: “So, what do I actually do about it?”

Join us on 5 October in Cairo. Seats are limited and attendance is by invitation only.

Request your invitation here.

The US raised Egypt’s tariff to 12.5% while Cairo opened its market wider to US cars

Egypt-US trade policy moved in opposite directions last week. Washington put most Egyptian goods in a higher 12.5% tariff bucket, while the Investment Ministry opened a clearer route for US-made vehicles into the local market.

Egyptian goods covered by the Section 301 investigation entering the US now face a 12.5% tariff — the higher of two rates under a new US forced-labor regime covering 60 trading partners — after President Donald Trump’s temporary 10% global import surcharge expired Friday, according to a Federal Register notice (pdf) from the US Trade Representative (USTR). The new Section 301 duty applies to Egyptian goods entered for consumption from 12:01am ET on 24 July, with a narrow carveout for goods already loaded and in transit before then and entered before 28 July. The duty replaces the expiring 150-day surcharge, lifting the broad tariff on covered Egyptian goods by 2.5 percentage points.

SOUND SMART- Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 gives the US President broad authority to impose tariffs on foreign goods in response to trade practices deemed unfair or actionable. The USTR has interpreted that to include insufficient enforcement of forced-labor import bans.

Egypt is in the higher-rate bucket: The US set Egypt’s rate at the higher of two tiers, reserved for economies that neither imposed a forced-labor import ban nor committed to one, while the 10% tier went to countries with a ban, a partial regime, or a reciprocal-trade commitment. The notice does not say Egyptian exports were made with forced labor. It says the investigation analyzed whether the 60 reviewed economies had the import controls needed to keep forced-labor goods out of their own markets, and that Section 301 lets Washington impose tariffs “without regard to whether or not” the goods were directly involved in the practice under investigation.

A broad tariff, unless Washington needs the product: The new duty carves out product lines where tariffs could threaten to “cause economy-wide disruption,” certain products “that cannot be grown or produced in sufficient quantities or at reasonable prices” domestically or sourced elsewhere, and raw material “that if subject to these tariffs could lead to the unavailability of domestic supply.” Reuters says oil and gas, fertilizer, certain foodstuffs, aircraft and parts, critical minerals, and goods already covered by Section 232 national-security tariffs — autos, steel, aluminum, and copper — are among the carveouts.

Egypt’s exposure is modest, but not trivial. US Census data show the US imported USD 1.4 bn of goods from Egypt in the first five months of 2026 while exporting USD 5.1 bn, leaving Washington with a USD 3.7 bn goods surplus. The bilateral numbers do not point to a US deficit story. The USTR notice frames the tariff instead as a way to “encourage the investigated economies to impose and effectively enforce a forced labor import ban” and “obtain the elimination” of the practices Washington found actionable.

REMEMBER- The old 10% tariff had given Egypt a relative advantage. We noted last year that Egypt’s lower exposure to Trump’s first tariff round could help position it as an alternative manufacturing base for companies seeking access to the US market, with Garment Export Council Chairman Fadel Marzouk saying the sector could attract around USD 2 bn in new investments. That advantage fed directly into the QIZ story, where exports reached USD 1.45 bn in 2025 and the government was targeting USD 2 bn this year. It also helped textile exporters, with Egypt’s 10% rate looking attractive against 20% or higher tariffs on some competing manufacturing bases.

The QIZ talks matter more now: QIZ exports had been one of Egypt’s clearest openings under the earlier tariff regime, with the government’s efforts to expand participation in the framework and open talks to reduce the Israeli component requirement — currently 10.5% — to a 5-8% sliding scale. Those talks appear to still be moving, with AmCham Egypt Chairman Amr Mehanna telling Masrawy earlier this month that current negotiations center on lowering the Israeli input to 8% and expanding the agreement’s geographic coverage. The USTR notice says goods eligible for special tariff treatment remain subject to the new additional duties unless otherwise exempted, which could mean a narrower tariff advantage for QIZ exporters than the one they enjoyed under the previous reading of Trump’s tariff regime.

Cairo is moving the other way on US goods: US-made vehicles that comply with US federal safety standards now have a clearer route into Egypt, the Investment Ministry said following Investment Minister Mohamed Farid’s visit to GM Egypt’s 6th of October factory, according to a statement. The ministry has opened the local market to vehicles that meet US Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) — US safety rules issued by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that set minimum safety-performance requirements for vehicles and auto components.

This removes a barrier Washington had been pushing on: The USTR’s 2026 National Trade Estimate report (pdf) said Egypt had “completed important steps” toward accepting FMVSS, “moving closer to eliminating a significant barrier to the export of US automobiles and automotive parts to Egypt.” The report said Egypt would allow certain US vehicle standards and requirements, including FMVSS, to establish compliance with applicable Egyptian automotive requirements, while still needing to update its vehicle-part approval rules.

Imports are already gaining ground: Passenger-car imports rose 10% y-o-y to USD 1.68 bn in 1H 2026, from USD 1.53 bn a year earlier, Al Arabiya Business reports, citing data from the General Organization for Export and Import Control. Passenger cars accounted for 3.5% of Egypt’s non-oil imports during the period. US automotive exports to Egypt topped USD 256 mn last year, the statement cited US Assistant Commerce Secretary for Industry and Analysis Steven Haines as saying.

OUR TAKE- The two moves capture the asymmetry in Egypt-US trade right now — Washington is raising the cost of Egyptian access to the US market on forced-labor import-control grounds, while Cairo is removing a standards barrier for a US export category where demand is already recovering. The new duty does not close the US market to Egyptian exporters, but it dulls one of Egypt’s cleanest selling points at a time when the government and manufacturers have been trying to position the country as a lower-tariff production base. It also underlines the selective logic of the new US trade regime — Trump is using forced-labor enforcement to raise the cost of market access, while shielding the products the US needs most from the same pressure.

Aramco is routing extra crude through Egypt as Houthi threats hit Red Sea exports

Aramco turns to Egypt as traditional Red Sea routes face renewed risk: Aramco is offering additional crude cargoes from the Sidi Kerir terminal on a spot basis as Houthi threats put the Kingdom’s exports through Bab El Mandab at risk, Reuters reports. The extra offers supplement Aramco’s term supplies; no volumes or pricing were disclosed. The exposure is substantial: around 80% of the Kingdom’s Red Sea crude exports and 48% of its Red Sea refined-product exports have passed through Bab El Mandab since March, per Kpler data cited by Middle East Economic Survey (MEES).

How it works: Saudi barrels move through Aramco’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu, before being shipped north through the Red Sea to Ain Sokhna. The crude then crosses Egypt through the Sumed pipeline and is loaded onto tankers at Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean. Vessels can collect cargo in the Mediterranean — at full capacity — without entering the Red Sea or paying the canal’s tolls.

The Suez canal provides another northbound option but it’s less straightforward: The largest tankers — such as fully loaded VLCCs carrying 2 mn bbl — cannot pass through the Suez Canal due to draft limits, forcing them to offload part of their cargo to get pumped into Sumed before reloading at Sidi Kerir. Estimates of how much they can take through Suez range from 900k to 1.75 mn barrels, depending on the vessel and cargo. That means offloading some 250k-1.1 mn bbl before transiting north. Additionally, tankers repositioning through Suez to load at Yanbu would face the canal’s steep tolls twice — when transiting in to pick cargo and on their way out — while loading at Sidi Kerir avoids both transits.

REMEMBER- Egypt first emerged as a Saudi export fallback in March, when it offered the Ain Sokhna–Sidi Kerir route as a workaround for disruptions at Hormuz. The government later opened ten Red Sea storage facilities to international players, while Sumed continued moving Saudi crude at full capacity after attacks near Yanbu. The latest threat puts the same infrastructure to work as a bypass for Bab El Mandab.

There’s room on paper, but the logistics could get tight. Aramco’s East–West Pipeline pushes some 5 mn bbl / d of crude to the Red Sea for export — but Sumed can move only 2.5 mn bpd of that north across Egypt. Saudi deliveries to Ain Sokhna have averaged around 755k bpd this year, according to MEES. Egypt has some storage capacity to manage temporary surges, with some 18.4 mn bbl available at Ain Sokhna and another 19.5 mn bbl at Sidi Kerir, but storage only smooths congestion; it can’t raise the pipeline’s daily throughput.

The workaround works better for Europe than Asia. Sending Saudi crude north through Egypt before sailing around the Cape of Good Hope stretches a Yanbu–Taiwan voyage to 48 days from 19, lifting fuel costs to around USD 2.87 mn from USD 1.26 mn and adding roughly USD 1 mn in Suez Canal fees, according to Reuters. At least one VLCC has been booked to load from Egypt’s Mediterranean coast for delivery to South Korea via the Cape, marking the first such charter in several years, while a Greek-owned VLCC is heading north from Yanbu to transit Suez without offloading into Sumed, since it is carrying a partial load.

But not everyone is diverting. Two Chinese-owned supertankers carrying Saudi crude passed through Bab El Mandab a few days ago with their transponders switched on, while Western-linked tankers have also crossed the waterway or approached Yanbu with their transponders switched off to reduce the risk of targeting.

Why it matters: The disruption is transforming Egypt from a casualty of Red Sea insecurity into part of the workaround. Past Houthi attacks have reduced Suez Canal traffic and revenues, but the same threat now raises the value of local infrastructure as the only established corridor capable of moving Saudi crude, creating the commercial case for more Gulf investment in storage, terminals, and cross-country infrastructure. And the shift is not limited to oil: Cairo has suspended Advance Cargo Information requirements on Gulf transit shipments moving through Egypt in both directions, clearing a paperwork hurdle for GCC cargo routed overland between Mediterranean and Red Sea terminals under the emerging Europe-Egypt-GCC corridor.

Egypt received its second EU tranche, with one EUR 1.5 bn payment left on the EUR 5 bn package

The European Commission disbursed EUR 1.5 bn to Egypt on Thursday, the second of three installments under its ongoing EUR 4 bn Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) program, the Commission said in a statement. The concessional loan is meant to help Egypt cover part of its financing needs, preserve macroeconomic stability, and keep its economic reform program moving in step with the IMF — easing pressure on external finances, including strains tied to regional tensions.

The Commission’s statement credits Egypt with improving public financial management and the functioning of the foreign exchange market, in addition to strengthening state-owned enterprise governance, advancing digitalization of public services, and making progress on water management and energy under the green transition.

IN CONTEXT– Egypt had hoped the tranche would land by end-June; it arrived nearly a month later. For January’s first EUR 1 bn tranche of the same program, the Commission cited “competitive bidding for industrial land allocation and streamlined online licensing” as evidence of business-environment progress. Thursday’s payment brings what we’ve received to EUR 3.5 bn of the EUR 5 bn in MFA pledged under the EUR 7.4 bn EU-Egypt Strategic and Comprehensive Partnership in 2024 — a EUR 1 bn short-term facility disbursed in December 2024, plus the first two installments of this EUR 4 bn medium-term operation. One EUR 1.5 bn tranche remains. The partnership includes EUR 1.8 bn in investment agreements and EUR 600 mn in grants.

BACKGROUND- Other financing under the same partnership has landed in recent weeks, including a EUR 690 mn grid-upgrade agreement. As with the previous two disbursements, this installment was conditioned on Egypt meeting the economic-policy conditions agreed with the EU, keeping the IMF program on track, and taking what the Commission called “some concrete and credible steps” toward democratic mechanisms, the rule of law, and human rights.

Also on the EU front: Industry Minister Khaled Hashem met with EU ambassador to Egypt Angelina Eichhorst last week to discuss deepening cooperation on SME development, the automotive sector, workforce training, and the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), according to a ministry statement. The ministry will announce new industrial land allocation rules, including an easier track for small investors, and asked the EU to help get a new vocational training program accredited by European institutions. Eichhorst flagged the EU-Egypt Sustainable Investment Facilitation Agreement (SIFA) as a channel for more European investment and noted recent growth in Egyptian agricultural and fertilizer exports to the bloc.

IN OTHER DEBT UPDATES

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) approved a senior loan of up to EGP 465 mn (c. EUR 8.3 mn) to GB Logistics, the logistics arm of GB Corp (formerly GB Auto), to build up to three warehouses and buy up to five electric trucks and their charging stations — a move that would make GBL among the first Egyptian logistics operators to run EVs in its own freight fleet, according to a project disclosure. The loan, secured by a corporate guarantee from GB Corp, covers most of the roughly EGP 487.5 mn project cost.

The trucks come with a separate EUR 400k EBRD investment grant meant to offset the higher upfront cost of going electric. The investment grant includes EUR 213k from the bank’s Shareholder Special Fund and EUR 187k from its FINTECC clean-tech facility, which co-finances clean technology adoption in emerging markets. The EBRD is also attaching two technical-assistance assignments to the deal: one to help GB Corp win EDGE green-building certification on selected facilities, and another to help GBL implement a gender and inclusion plan aimed at improving women’s recruitment, retention, and progression.

The new warehouses would lift GBL’s storage capacity by about 10%, while the EBRD casts the EV purchase as a proof-of-concept meant to spur wider adoption of low-carbon trucking in Egypt. Worth noting on the green framing: the bank classifies only 10% of its financing here as green finance — the bulk is going to conventional warehouse construction.

IN CONTEXT- The loan adds to a steady run of EBRD green financing across Egypt’s private sector this year: the bank extended an EGP 1.3 bn facility to Ibnsina Pharma in January for an EDGE-certified logistics warehouse, a USD 65 mn bridge loan to Hassan Allam Utilities in April for the Nefer Benban solar-and-storage plant, and an EGP 600 mn loan to Valu in June to finance household purchases of solar power and EV-related products. EBRD’s Hashem Abdel Hakim, its former deputy head of Egypt and head of financial institutions for the country and recently-appointed regional director for the eastern Mediterranean region, told us in April that the bank’s 2026 Egypt ticket runs USD 1.4-1.5 bn, with at least 40% — roughly USD 600 mn — earmarked for green projects.

Marriott signed a deal for 11 new hotels across five mixed-use projects

Marriott International signed an agreement with Misr Italia Properties and People & Places Developments to develop 11 hotels and resorts with more than 1.8k rooms and suites across five mixed-use projects in Egypt’s coastal and urban destinations, according to a cabinet statement. Misr Italia, which says its total portfolio investments exceed EGP 56.7 bn, expects the expansion to create around 6k direct and indirect jobs and draw some 373k tourists a year.

IN CONTEXT– The agreement lands amid a wave of international operators expanding operations in Egypt as the state targets 30 mn tourists a year and 500k hotel rooms by 2030. Marriott signed on last year to bring its Autograph Collection brand to the redevelopment of Tahrir Square’s Mogamma into a 500-key hotel. This month, Hilton entered a partnership to put a Hilton Garden Inn in Ras El Bar, part of a pipeline to triple its Egypt presence with 25 new hotels, while Thai group Minor Hotels signed on to open its Anantara brand’s first Egyptian property, a resort at Somabay — separate from a JV with Sunrise Resorts & Cruises that targets up to 50 hotels nationwide over the next decade.

Cairo-Damascus flights could resume within two months, ending a 15-year suspension

Egypt and Syria are reportedly set to end a 15-year-long suspension of direct flights between Cairo and Damascus in less than two months, sources told Al Arabiya. Officials from both nations recently discussed steps to resume flights between them, ease travel for citizens, and strengthen bilateral ties, according to state news agency SANA. Flights between Syria and Egypt have been suspended since Syria’s security situation deteriorated in 2011.

And while flights have been slowly making their way back to Damascus and Aleppo, EgyptAir is yet to join them.

New vehicles for old deals

The government cleared four new state-linked companies and three capital increases, according to a cabinet statement. Two of the new formations include the Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority’s Nile Ferchem for Phosphate Fertilizers and a property JV between Alexandria Company for Investment and Urban Development and Saudi developer Sadeen. No ownership splits, investment values, or project details were disclosed for either.

Indorama gets its local vehicle: The third formation involves Phosphate Misr, which received approval to establish Indorama Misr Fertilizers. The company will house Singapore-based Indorama’s USD 525 mn Sokhna phosphate fertilizer plant, which is expected to produce 600k tons annually in its first phase, with 80% of output earmarked for export.

Quick Fuel moves forward: The fourth formation the cabinet approved was the establishment of IPO-bound Quick Fuel, which will hold Taqa Arabia’s assets under its recent acquisition of 10% of 172 Wataneya stations

Capital hikes: The cabinet greenlit capital increases for Strategic Warehouses for Medical Products and Devices, South Valley Development, and the JV between Elsewedy Electric and Egypt Steel — Elsewedy National Industries and Engineering. The statement did not disclose the size, funding source, or intended use of any of the increases.

Why it matters: The approvals move several previously announced plans into their corporate implementation phase while opening the door to new ventures across mining, fertilizers, fuel retail, and real estate. They also reflect the government’s company-by-company approach to state ownership, with dedicated vehicles, private-sector partnerships, and selective capital injections for different assets.

Alexandria’s new Adriatic link

The Alexandria Port Authority and Montenegro Ports Authority inked an MoU to cooperate on port management, digital transformation, and capacity building, according to a statement from the Investment Ministry. The agreement was signed on the sidelines of Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović’s first official visit to Egypt, where he also met Investment Minister Mohamed Farid and business leaders from both countries. Separately, Farid also expressed interest in a future direct shipping line between Egypt and Montenegro.

New embassy incoming: Milatović also announced Montenegro will open its first African embassy in Cairo. Milatović framed the Cairo embassy as part of Montenegro’s push to use Egypt as a gateway to regional markets ahead of its 2028 EU accession target.

IN CONTEXT- Trade between the two countries currently remains thin, although a trade mission to Montenegro is in the works and both governments aim to finalize a broader economic cooperation agreement, alongside a tourism pact intended to be approved by the end of the year.

Russia clears the runway

Russia has granted preliminary accreditation to Alamein and Alexandria international airports, easing the way for seasonal flights to Egypt, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. The nod came during a meeting between Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the ASEAN ministerial meeting in Manila. Moscow said the move would support Russian tourist flows to Egypt.

Why it matters: The move is a small but concrete tourism step in a wider Egypt-Russia economic corridor spanning travel, industry, energy, and commodity logistics. It also lands as Egypt is expanding charter-flight incentives covering major gateways including Alamein and Borg El Arab, giving the government another tool to attract more Russian tourists into the north coast and Alexandria.

The meeting also had an economic pipeline: The two sides discussed steps to establish a logistics center for grain and petroleum products in Egypt, while Abdelatty noted progress on the Russian Industrial Zone (RIZ) in the Suez Canal Economic Zone and the recent installation of the second reactor pressure vessel at Dabaa. No details were disclosed on the logistics center’s location, investment value, capacity, or timeline.

More under our radar:

Galala University inked an MoU with Austria's Montanuniversität Leoben to deepen cooperation in higher education, research, and innovation focused on engineering, energy, and geoscience, according to a press release.
Hassan Allam Holding and Turkey’s Rönesans are mulling an integrated medical complex in Cairo to be developed under a Public-Private Partnership framework, according to a statement. The complex will have a total capacity of 4.2k beds.

The regional M&A slowdown is moderating somewhat

The bleeding in regional M&A has slowed, but it hasn't stopped. Regional M&A volumes fell 47% y-o-y to USD 48.7 bn in 1H, Zawya reports citing LSEG data — a steep drop, but a lighter one than 1Q's. Transaction count held far steadier, down just 2% y-o-y to 642, which means the average deal got a lot smaller: roughly USD 76 mn this year, versus an implied USD 140 mn in 1H 2025.

Why it matters: A 47% value decline against a nearly flat deal count is a market that hasn't frozen up, just gotten more cautious about size and risk. For dealmakers, that argues for structuring around smaller, more contained bets rather than waiting out the volatility for larger ones.

Outbound outpaces inbound: Deals targeting regional M&A windows came in at a two-year low for 1H figures, dropping 56% y-o-y against a backdrop of persistent regional instability. MENA-based investors struck a more confident note, recording USD 25 bn in outbound activity. However, that’s still down 38% y-o-y.

The UAE dominated the regional map. It was the most in-demand market in the region by a wide margin, with USD 16.5 bn in M&A activity, ahead of Saudi Arabia (USD 2.9 bn) and Morocco (USD 1 bn).

The materials, industrials, tech, and financial services led the charge. The largest agreement came from UAE-based critical and rare metals platform Miotal’s USD 10 bn merger with Fifth Era Acquisition Corp I SPAC vehicle, as securing critical materials for AI activity becomes increasingly important.

The gloomy results are still better than 1Q’s depressing recordings, when MENA M&A activity fell 74% y-o-y in value terms after the regional war dampened market sentiment. Similarly, it was inbound M&A that took the largest hit, falling 90% on a yearly basis. Once again, Emirati players were behind some of the biggest moves, with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority’s (Adia) sale of its Pension Ins. Corporation Group stake topping the charts.

Looking further ahead, global M&A volumes, however, are expected to rise to USD 3.8 tn in 2026, after hitting a record USD 2.8 tn in 1H this year on the back of megadeals, with 47 transactions accounting for nearly half of the total global agreement value.

A rival count tells a different story

PwC's own mid-year tally (pdf), also out this week, counts just 272 M&A transactions across the Middle East in 1H 2026, down roughly 8% y-o-y — a fraction of the 642 LSEG reports for the same period. The discrepancy boils down to scope: PwC's “Middle East” doesn't appear to include Morocco (which LSEG's MENA data does, at USD 1 bn of 1H activity), and its list of the five largest regional transactions doesn't include the USD 10 bn Miotal/Fifth Era Acquisition Corp I merger that anchors the LSEG data — meaning PwC may be excluding SPAC mergers from its M&A count.

What PwC adds that's worth knowing on its own terms: PwC's own deal-size breakdown backs up the “smaller deals” pattern from a second angle: corporate buyers, not private equity, drove most of the activity (167 transactions to PE's roughly 105), and financial-services dealmaking fell from 75 transactions in mid-2025 to 53.

EGX30	53,932	-0.1% (YTD: +28.9%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 51.28	Sell 51.42
USD (CIB)	Buy 51.25	Sell 51.35
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	10,804	+0.3% (YTD: +3.0%)
ADX	9,828	-0.1% (YTD: -1.7%)
DFM	5,787	-0.2% (YTD: -4.3%)
S&P 500	7,412	+0.1% (YTD: +8.3%)
FTSE 100	10,736	+0.9% (YTD: +8.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,281	+1.1% (YTD: +8.4%)
Brent crude	USD 96.78	-3.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.87	-1.5%
Gold	USD 4,071	+0.5%
BTC	USD 64,356	+0.4% (YTD: -26.5%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,084	+0.1% (YTD: +9.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.20	+0.2% (YTD: -1.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	18.58	-0.6% (YTD: +24.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.1% at Wednesday’s close on turnover of EGP 12.6 bn (36.3% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 28.9% YTD.

In the green: Orascom Development (+2.9%), Valmore Holding -EGP (+2.4%), and Raya Holding (+2.4%).

In the red: GB Corp (-2.9%), Orascom Investment Holding (-1.3%), and Edita (-1.3%).

CALENDAR

JULY

28-30 July (Tuesday-Thursday): EduGate, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

AUGUST

19 August (Wednesday): Connected Banking Summit, Fairmont Nile City Hotel Cairo.

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday) El Alamein International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

10-12 September (Thursday-Saturday): Egyptian Entrepreneurship Sector Diagnostics Report Summit, El Gouna.

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

28-29 September (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Mining Forum, St. Regis Hotel New Capital.

30 September - October 3 (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

OCTOBER

5 October (Monday): The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

10-11 October (Saturday-Sunday): Egypt Women’s Health Summit (EWHS), Cairo Marriott Hotel.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): IEX Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

NOVEMBER

6-8 November (Friday-Sunday) : Global Entrepreneurship Festival, JW Marriott Hotel, New Cairo.

8-11 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT Forum.

DECEMBER

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Food Africa, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-August: IMF Board expected to decide on the seventh review of the loan program.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

4Q 2026: Banque du Caire IPO.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Agri Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

Sections

About

Privacy & Support