Gov’t is courting Australian mining firms to enter the local gold sector

Good morning, folks. It’s a slow-drip summer morning, the kind of day where the market’s plumbing gets fixed while everyone’s enjoying the beach.

And plumbing is the theme today. The EGX is rewiring its index-review calendar, potentially giving asset managers two weeks' warning before a rebalance; the New and Urban Communities Authority is easing the squeeze on developers and buyers in the new cities; and the Real Estate Registration Authority has unblocked mortgage lending on the North Coast — three separate bits of machinery, all oiled up at once.

ALSO- It’s Blackboard day, and we delve into why five years of private equity money has yet to produce a single K-12 exit. Why is the smart money drifting toward lecture halls instead of classrooms?

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Hopping on gold

The Mineral Resources and Mining Industries Authority (MRMIA) is in talks with several Australian mining companies about investing in Egypt for the first time, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. Some of the firms have signaled their intent to enter the local gold and mining sector.

The targets: MRMIA aims to raise gold and silver revenue to USD 557 mn this fiscal year, up 255% y-o-y from USD 157 mn, per a government document seen by EnterpriseAM. The rise appears to rest on factors beyond volume — including expected revenue from awarding licenses to work new exploration sites — as gold production is projected to increase only 4.9% to 557k ounces (from 531.1k) and silver production 5.9% to 90k ounces (from 85k). The government raised MRMIA’s investment budget by a third to EGP 20 bn from EGP 15 bn and is targeting USD 840 mn in private investment, part of a plan to lift mining’s GDP share from under 1% to 5-6% by 2030.

REFRESHER- The pitch rests on Egypt’s first comprehensive aerial mineral survey in over 40 years, contracted to Spain’s Xcalibur in May across six regions and due to finish by end-2027 at USD 56-60 mn. It will produce a mineral database to support future licensing rounds. MRMIA also launched its first open-sector exploration bid round last month, replacing a single-deadline system.

A drink from the sea

Three desalination plants incoming: The government is in advanced talks with Emirati renewables firm Amea Power to develop three seawater desalination facilities with a combined capacity of up to 300k cbm per day, Chairman Hussain Al Nowais was quoted as saying. Two would sit on the Mediterranean coast and one on the Red Sea, with Amea expected to fund, design, build, and operate them.

The water gap: Egypt needs 88.55 bn cbm of freshwater a year but draws only around 65.35 bn cbm from natural resources, leaning on wastewater reuse, groundwater, and food imports to close the gap, Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Hani Sewilam said earlier this year. It runs 129 desalination plants totaling 1.42 mn cbm per day, with 19 more under construction. It is also working to relaunch a stalled public-private partnership desalination program — held up by land-allocation and FX issues — that targets 21 plants with a combined capacity of 3.3 mn cbm per day.

A clean slate

The new EGX stamp tax takes effect this month, Egyptian Tax Authority advisor Saeed Fouad tells EnterpriseAM. The newly approved law drops all retroactive capital gains tax (CGT) claims from the limbo period between the tax’s initial approval and its cancellation. It also wipes out any outstanding CGT liabilities companies ran up before the new levy. The legislation is not retroactive, meaning market regulators have no statutory cover to withhold the tax from traders until it is formally on the books, Fouad adds.

REMEMBER- The move closes the books on the capital gains tax, which the house scrapped last month in favor of a simpler, volume-based system. Parliament’s approval locks in a 0.05% (0.5 per mille) stamp duty on both buyers and sellers, applying equally to local and foreign investors. The rate is halved to 0.025% (0.25 per mille) for same-day trades to keep liquidity moving.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another warm day in Cairo today, with a high of 35°C and a low of 24°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s breezier in Alexandria, with a high of 31°C and a low of 24°C.

Data point

USD 14.6 bn — that’s our current account deficit in 9M FY 2025/26, up around 10% y-o-y from USD 13.2 bn, according to a CBE press release (pdf). The goods trade deficit accounted for most of the widening, with the non-oil trade deficit up 23.8% to USD 34.7 bn and the oil trade deficit up 26.8% to USD 13.1 bn; a wider investment income deficit, up 18.2% to USD 14.4 bn, added to the strain. Those gaps grew faster than the surpluses from remittances (USD 34.9 bn), tourism (USD 14.4 bn), and recovering Suez Canal receipts (USD 3.2 bn). Net capital and financial account inflows of USD 9.9 bn — net FDI held up at USD 13.0 bn — kept the overall balance of payments deficit roughly flat at USD 1.8 bn, from USD 1.9 bn a year earlier, though the strain sharpened in the Jan-March quarter as the regional war drove portfolio outflows.

The big story abroad

It’s a quiet Monday morning on the global front pages save for the latest escalations in the regional war.

The US military launched fresh strikes on Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Rejecting Tehran’s claims that it has closed the waterway, the US Central Command announced new strikes designed to weaken Iran’s ability to target commercial vessels. Meanwhile, Iranian state media reported explosions in cities along the strait.

Iran launched at least three waves of missiles and drones at Gulf nations, targeting US military bases across Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. The strikes were in retaliation for bombings in southern Iran, state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported.

Oil markets jolted: The escalations sent Brent crude prices up 3% to USD 78 a barrel at the open of Asian trading, while West Texas Intermediate surged 4% to USD 79 a barrel. Oil prices have been steadily falling, inching towards their pre-war level of USD 72.5, since the US and Iran announced their framework agreement — prices hit a war peak of USD 126 a barrel in April.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We unpack why private equity’s five-year push into K-12 schools is hitting a wall on margins, and why the smart money is now pivoting toward higher education for structural returns.