Nassef Sawiris’ take-it-or-leave-it offer for OCI Global

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Privatization progress satisfies IMF’s seventh review targets

Good morning, Egypt. We have a morning of consolidation moves, but first, a Pharaohs’ result worth celebrating.

Mohamed Salah is leading Egypt into the World Cup knockout stages for the first time in our nation’s history after yesterday’s 1-1 draw with Iran in Seattle. Egypt finished second in Group G after an early-morning rollercoaster for fans as the standings swung repeatedly. The team will head to Dallas to face Australia next Friday at 9pm Cairo time.

But we paid a heavy price for the draw. Salah was subbed off in the 57th minute and was seen with ice on his knee. Center-back Mohamed Abdelmonem and left-back Ahmed Fattouh also came off the field injured, and midfielder Mohanad Lasheen was suspended from playing the next game after a second yellow. A medical examination found that Salah suffered a hamstring strain, while Fattouh tore his hamstring, raising doubts about whether they will return for the next game. Abdelmonem sustained a severe ankle bruise and is undergoing medical treatment to try to get him ready for the game.

B’naire Nassef Sawiris has put a price on ending the OCI Global standoff and said take it or leave it. NNS Holding has launched a voluntary allcash offer for all of OCI’s issued and outstanding shares, designed to break the deadlock around the proposed merger with Orascom Construction. A follow-up filing two days later confirmed the offer is final and signalled NNS would sell its own OCI stake if a third party came in with a higher bid for all shareholders.

The FRA has issued a paired regulatory package designed to curb systemic risk in the NBFI sector before it materializes. The first ties geographic expansion for non-bank finance firms to clean compliance records, and the second turns reins. into a solvency test for ins. providers. Read together with the CBE’s quiet tightening of bank-to-NBFI credit, the regulatory frame around NBFIs keeps hardening in the same direction.

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Privatization push pays off

Egypt’s recent state-asset sales satisfy the IMF’s latest review targets, clearing the way to unlock roughly USD 1.6 bn in financing, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The seventh review under the USD 8 bn Extended Fund Facility is progressing, with the IMF aiming to hold board meetings this summer that would unlock the disbursements, IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack said in a press briefing on Thursday. One review remains, set to be completed by the end of the year.

Two agreements this month pushed the privatization front — Taqa Arabia’s 10% stake in 172 military-affiliated Wataniya fuel stations, marking the first partial sale of a military-connected asset to the private sector, and Alcazar Energy’s USD 420 mn deal to manage the Gabal El Zeit wind farm, with proceeds earmarked to pay down public debt.

Two reform fronts: On tax, Kozack said the Fund welcomes Egypt’s continued efforts to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization, which she said is needed to create fiscal space for priority social and development spending. On divestment, the Fund is continuing to engage closely with the authorities on advancing the state ownership policy, including through the asset divestment program, she added.

Subsidy shift not starting yet

The government’s planned shift from in-kind food subsidies to cash support will not start on 1 July, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said during his weekly press conference last Wednesday (watch, runtime: 49:01). “I did not say 1 July,” Madbouly said, clarifying that FY 2026/27 would see the state begin moving toward the new system, but only once the government finalizes the mechanics. The gov’t is still reviewing eligibility lists, inflation risks, price-control questions, and the mechanisms needed to make the switch without disrupting beneficiaries.

REMEMBER- We looked at the planned subsidy switch last week, when economists told us the core risk is not the idea of cash support itself, but whether implementation can protect beneficiaries’ purchasing power as prices shift. The FY 2026/27 budget allocates EGP 832.3 bn to subsidies, including EGP 175.3 bn for food subsidies and EGP 55.3 bn for Takaful and Karama transfers.

Delayed, again

Egypt and Saudi Arabia delayed the commercial start of their USD 1.8 bn, 3 GW electricity interconnection to the end of this year, pushing it to the back of their 2H 2026 target window, Shorouk News reports, citing a senior Electricity Ministry official. The delay lands as the government braces for record summer consumption, with peak load projected to reach around 42k MW in August, up from roughly 39.8k MW last summer.

REMEMBER- The interconnection project — one of the region’s largest — is already years behind its original 2018 tender. Trial operations for the first 1.5 GW phase were initially advanced to April 2025 before slipping to early 2026. In February, the government said the link would go live “within the coming weeks” — a target that has since come and gone.

Sudan link underperforming: Separately, the official revealed Egypt’s existing Sudan interconnection is currently running at only 75-80 MW, well below its 300 MW phase-one capacity. The official attributed the shortfall to “unfinished technical reinforcement works and equipment installation on the Sudanese side.”

Tickets, please!

The second phase of the East Nile Monorail is now open to passengers, running from Cairo Stadium Station in Nasr City to Justice City Station in the New Capital from 6am to 9pm daily, according to reporting by Extra News (watch, runtime: 03:57), confirming an earlier Transport Ministry statement. The new stretch adds the crucial Cairo Stadium-El Moshir Tantawy leg to the route, taking the line from Nasr City to the New Capital.

Why it matters: The line now plugs into the wider mass-transit grid, connecting with Metro Line 3 at Cairo Stadium, the BRT at El Moshir Tantawy station in New Cairo, and the LRT at Arts and Culture Station in the New Capital. This makes the monorail more viable for commuters than it was in the first operating stretch, which began at Moshir Tantawy and was harder to reach without a car. We tested the monorail in May, when the operating route ran from El Moshir Tantawy to Justice City, which took a little under an hour end-to-end.

PSA-

WEATHER- We are bracing for hotter days this week across the country, with a high of 35°C in the capital, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s several degrees cooler in Alexandria, which is looking at a high of 30°C.

The big story abroad

Leading today’s news cycle is the worst military escalation in the US-Iran war since the interim truce was reached two weeks ago. US forces retaliated against drone strikes on commercial tankers — a container ship and an oil tanker — in the Strait of Hormuz by striking Iranian targets yesterday, US Central Command said. Iranian state TV had reported that the Revolutionary Guard fired warning shots at vessels using unapproved channels.

The Lebanese front is also tensing up. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem rejected a US-brokered truce between Beirut and Tel Aviv a day after it was signed, characterizing it as a surrender. The Friday pact paired a staged Israeli pullback from southern Lebanon with Lebanese army deployment and temporarily letting Israel occupy a security zone.

Meanwhile, on Wall Street: SpaceX will list on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 on 7 July — weeks after it went public — in a move expected to trigger more buying from passive investors. The rocket and AI company will likely enter the index with a weighting shy of 1%, and see a stock price boost amid interest from ETFs.

Tech world faces desperate memory shortage: Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for permission to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies, a Chinese firm blacklisted by the Pentagon. This coincides with price hikes announced by the iPhone maker and Microsoft on key devices, passing a portion of skyrocketing memory costs onto consumers, as the dwindling supply of memory chips squeezes the industry.

The last word on OCI

The country’s richest man has set a price on ending the standoff over OCI Global’s future — and called it his last word. NNS Holding — the Cyprus-incorporated arm of Nassef Sawiris’ private family office — intends to launch a voluntary allcash public offer of EUR 4.10 per share for all of OCI Global’s issued and outstanding shares, according to a filing to Euronext Amsterdam, where OCI is listed. NNS says the offer is designed to break the deadlock over the company’s proposed merger with Orascom Construction.

Take it or leave it: In a follow-up filing two days later, NNS confirmed EUR 4.10 is its final offer and signaled it would sell its own OCI stake if a third party came in with a bid that delivered more value to all shareholders.

The price tag: At EUR 4.10 a share, the allcash offer represents a nearly 2% premium to OCI’s Friday close of EUR 4.02 and values the company at roughly EUR 866.6 mn, by our math.

Who owns what: As of mid-April, Nassef Sawiris holds 49.21% of OCI Global, with an additional 9.07% held by the larger Sawiris family, giving them a combined stake of 58.28%. In practice, this means NNS is bidding for the roughly 41.72% it doesn’t own, including stakes held by Morgan Stanley (5.21%), Verition Fund Management (3.13%), Millennium International Management (3.09%), and other shareholders (17.24%), with the remainder in freefloat.

Conditional blessing: OCI’s board — excluding Nassef and Nadia Sawiris, who sat out all deliberations — backs the offer, but said its support is conditional on the bid being combined with the Orascom Construction transaction. The board concluded minority shareholders must keep the option to participate in the infrastructure-platform merger rather than be cashed out. The court-appointed independent board members, who have effectively held up the merger since January, have not yet said whether they support the offer.

REFRESHER- ADX- and EGX-listed Orascom Construction and OCI have been teeing up a merger since September 2025 to forge an Abu Dhabi-based infrastructure giant. The transaction was board-approved in December 2025 but frozen in January after a Dutch court backed minority shareholders citing conflicts of interest, installing two veto-wielding independent directors to keep retail investors from being stranded. Shortly after, Sawiris stepped down as OCI’s executive chair in a move widely read as an attempt to address the court’s concerns about his board influence. In April, his separate vehicle NNS City acquired an additional 1.03% of Orascom Construction, lifting his stake there to 43.39%.

What’s next: NNS expects to file its draft offer memorandum with the Dutch financial markets watchdog next week, with the formal offer to follow shortly after approval.

Tighter screws

The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) issued a pair of regulatory frameworks designed to curb systemic risk in the Non-Banking Financial Institutions (NBFIs) sector before it materializes. In the first, the regulator is tying geographic expansion for non-banking finance companies to clean compliance records. In the second, it turns reins. into a solvency test for the country’s ins’ers.

Compliance wall grows higher

The FRA is putting a compliance gate around NBFIs’ branch expansion. The regulator amended its rules for registering, moving, and closing branches, it said in a statement on Thursday. The goal is to let compliant non-bank finance firms expand geographically while clamping down on firms with unresolved violations or sloppy reporting. The amendment (Decree 100/2026) revises the branch framework set out earlier this year in Decree 44/2026, which gave firms a six-month grace period — ending 25 August — to bring their existing networks into line.

Time before growth: NBFIs with unresolved violations now face mandatory waiting periods before opening new doors. If a company has been hit with court rulings, criminal complaints, or FRA administrative measures, it must enforce the ruling, settle, or remove the underlying cause — and then sit in a three-month timeout. If the cause can’t be removed, the FRA can impose an expansion freeze of three months to three years, depending on the severity of the violation. To grow, companies must also be fully up-to-date on supervisory reports and annual and periodic financials, and have cleared inspection and compliance notes.

On the operational front, the FRA is allowing a firm’s risk officer and credit officer to each supervise up to four regional areas, with each area covering a maximum of five finance branches — while holding concentration risk per region against the company’s total financing portfolio. Under the wider branch framework issued in March, companies will still need to set clear structures for all types of branches, including marketing branches, mobile units, and seasonal branches to give firms operational flexibility without sacrificing oversight.

IN CONTEXT- This is part of a broader tightening of NBFI supervision. The sector’s financing portfolios hit EGP 417 bn by the end of 2025, prompting regulators and bankers to warn that loosely supervised regional branches could become systemic weak points. Last December, the CBE started throttling — gently — commercial bank credit and securitization lifelines for non-compliant firms. Simultaneously, the FRA launched public blacklists of rogue operators. The FRA also tapped Rehab Taha earlier this month to lead supervision and oversight of the sector.

The test

The authority is turning reins. into a solvency test for ins’rers, giving firms three months to adopt FRA-approved reins. policies that align with their capital base, risk appetite, and ability to pay out claims, according to a statement on Thursday. The standards are part of the executive framework being built out under the Unified Ins. Law (155/2024), and track recommendations from the International Association of Ins. Supervisors. They are designed to make sure ins’ers manage their risk transfers, liquidity, and counterparty exposures as one cohesive system.

The details: Ins’ers must now submit clear policies explaining why they are passing off risk, what they plan to retain, and how they will manage the credit and liquidity risk tied to these contracts. The FRA is also making stress tests mandatory — companies must run scenario analyses and draft contingency plans in case a reins’er defaults or goes bankrupt. Reins. program details must be submitted to the regulator within 60 days of preparation or renewal.

Directors accountable: Under the new rules, directors of the board are now directly responsible for overseeing these reins. programs and are legally required to flag any material deviations straight to the regulator.

The bigger picture: In early 2025, the FRA gave ins’ers two years to hike their paid-in capital to EGP 600 mn, setting a steep EGP 1 bn floor for rein’ers. As predicted, this squeeze is forcing smaller firms to consolidate and making larger ins’ers highly attractive to strategic investors. We are already seeing the M&A pipeline heat up, led by Egypt Kuwait Holding’s — now known as Valmore Holding — EGP 3.2 bn sale of its 63.4% stake in Delta Ins. to Morocco’s Wafa Assurance last year.

What’s next: Ins. firms have until 18 September to submit their reins. policies to the regulator.

The French backer

France and the EU are deepening their development pipeline in Egypt, with the AFD committing nearly EUR 300 mn across four financing agreements — alongside letters of intent on technical training — covering healthcare, industry, and agriculture, according to a press release from the Agence Française de Développement (AFD). Including co-financing from the European Investment Bank (EIB) and EU grants, the total mobilized capital is higher — around EUR 459 mn, by our count. Here’s the breakdown.

Healthcare takes the bigger slice: The AFD is extending a EUR 150 mn loan to back the second phase of Egypt’s Universal Health Ins. system, aiming to bring an additional 12 mn citizens across five governorates — Minya, Matrouh, Damietta, Kafr El Sheikh, and North Sinai — into coverage. The package is rounded out by a EUR 2 mn technical-cooperation component — run by Expertise France and the Finance Ministry — and a separate EUR 30 mn EU grant to expand primary care.

Greening industry: A EUR 210 mn Green Sustainable Industries program will finance decarbonization for more than 30 large and medium-sized industrial firms through Egyptian banks. It is backed by the EIB (EUR 135 mn), the AFD (EUR 45 mn), and the EU (EUR 30 mn).

Agriculture gets a credit line: The AFD signed a EUR 50 mn non-sovereign credit line with the National Bank of Egypt — topped up with a EUR 15 mn EU grant — to channel financing to small farmers, cooperatives, and agricultural SMEs across the value chain, from inputs to storage and processing.

Education and training: A EUR 2 mn French government grant funds the second phase of TrèFLE 2 — a program to expand French-language teaching in public schools — targeting 8k teachers and over 1 mn students by 2028. Two letters of intent — signed with the education and transport ministries and RATP Dev Mobility Cairo — would set up applied technology schools for railways and urban mobility.

Why it matters: The agreements come just over a year after presidents Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Emmanuel Macron elevated ties to a strategic partnership in 2025. The AFD is among Egypt’s most entrenched development backers, having deployed over EUR 4 bn into the market over two decades across health, agriculture, and the green transition.

Builder, not just backer

Beltone Venture Capital (BVC) is supporting the Saudi expansion of two Egyptian companies — D2C home-furnishing brand Ariika and healthy F&B chain Lychee — which are opening a combined five stores in Riyadh, the firm said in a press release (pdf). BVC framed the move — which plans two stores for Ariika and three for Lychee — as a progression from simply financing its portfolio companies to actively building them into regional consumer players. The release gave no investment figures, valuations, or timeline for the openings.

Premium burial grounds

Homegrown funeral services startup Sokna has partnered with Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG) to launch Bostan, a 188-acre cemetery development on the Suez Road, the company said in a statement (pdf). The move marks the funeral services firm’s long-anticipated entry into large-scale cemetery management. Under the partnership, Sokna will oversee the sales and daily operation of the project, while TMG will provide operational support and flexible payment plans.

Why it matters: The launch reflects Sokna’s plan to expand beyond end-to-end funeral services into integrated cemetery management. Founder and CEO Ahmed Gaballah previously told us the company plans to develop its cemetery project based on insights gathered over seven years of operations, focusing on addressing long-standing challenges around accessibility, traffic flow, maintenance, security, and integrated on-site services rather than simply developing cemetery real estate. But Sokna isn’t alone in this market, with Serenity breaking ground on its EGP 5 bn memorial garden project in the New Capital in February.

Trading app turns saver

Thndr has launched Thndr Gold, a digital investment product that allows users to buy, sell, and track physical 24-karat gold through its app, the company said in a statement (pdf). The launch comes weeks after Thndr previewed the product during its annual keynote, where it outlined plans to broaden its platform beyond stock trading with digital gold, fractional real estate, and AI-powered investment tools.

How it works: Investors can buy gold from as little as 0.001 grams — currently worth less than EGP 7 — with a flat 1% fee on both buy and sell orders. The product is built on a gold fund managed by Thndr Asset Management, with the underlying physical gold stored through EgyCash, a custody company backed by the Central Bank of Egypt. The offering also operates under the supervision of a specialized shariah committee and updates prices throughout the day based on official market rates.

A dynamic state cut

The Investment Ministry is ditching its flat export fee on nitrogen fertilizers in favor of a dynamic 10% duty linked to the free-on-board (FOB) value, according to a decree published in the Official Gazette. The measure exempts fertilizer exports destined for production projects in freezones, provided they fall within quotas approved by the General Authority for Investment and Freezones. The ministry is also exempting exports of pure ammonium nitrate — but only if the nitrogen concentration exceeds 34.2%.

Why it matters: The decree repeals the flat USD 90 per ton export levy that was slapped on the sector back in May. The government originally introduced the fixed fee to capture a slice of the massive windfall local producers were generating after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off rival Gulf suppliers. This allowed Egyptian producers to fill the global supply gap and charge buyers up to USD 890 / ton for urea.

Wall Street’s payday

Wall Street is preparing another bumper payday for shareholders after the biggest US banks cleared the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley all announced dividend increases within hours of the results, Bloomberg reports.

The payouts keep getting bigger: The six largest US banks returned more than USD 140 bn to shareholders through dividends and buybacks last year, surpassing the previous record set in 2019. The lenders also posted their strongest combined bottom lines since 2021, helped by record trading revenue.

This year’s exam came with a twist: Unlike previous years, banks no longer have to wait before announcing capital plans while the Fed overhauls the exercise. The agency said there is “no expectation” that lenders delay public disclosures of planned capital actions through 3Q 2027 — and separately froze stress-capital buffers until 2027, meaning this year's exam won't affect capital requirements.

The tests still matter: Introduced after the 2008 financial crisis, the tests measure whether banks could keep lending through a severe recession and market shock. But the annual review has become less onerous in recent years, with regulators moving toward a more bank-friendly framework.

JPMorgan led the payouts: JPMorgan lifted its quarterly dividend to USD 1.65 a share from USD 1.50 and authorized a fresh USD 50 bn buyback. Meanwhile:

Goldman Sachs raised its payout to USD 5 from USD 4.50;
Citigroup to USD 0.67 from USD 0.60;
Wells Fargo to USD 0.50 from USD 0.45;
Morgan Stanley to USD 1.15 from USD 1;
Bank of America said it will announce its next quarterly dividend after its July board meeting and had almost USD 23 bn remaining on its buyback plan at the end of March.

EGX30	51,443	-0.5% (YTD: +23.0%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 49.47	Sell 49.60
USD (CIB)	Buy 49.45	Sell 49.55
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	10,933	-0.7% (YTD: +4.2%)
ADX	9,880	+0.0% (YTD: -1.2%)
DFM	6,018	-0.1% (YTD: -0.5%)
S&P 500	7,354	-0.1% (YTD: +7.4%)
FTSE 100	10,508	-0.2% (YTD: +5.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,222	-0.7% (YTD: +7.3%)
Brent crude	USD 71.99	-4.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.28	-0.5%
Gold	USD 4,096	+1.2%
BTC	USD 60,193	+0.6% (YTD: -31.3%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,068	+0.1% (YTD: +7.6%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	152.60	0.0% (YTD: +0.5%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	18.41	-2.5% (YTD: +23.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.5% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 8.8 bn (1.2% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 23.0% YTD.

In the green: Emaar Misr (+1.0%), TMG Holding (+0.8%), and Orascom Investment Holding (+0.7%).

In the red: Orascom Construction (-7.0%), Qalaa Holdings (-3.0%), and Edita (-2.8%).

CALENDAR

JUNE

30 June (Tuesday): June 30 Revolution.

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

19 August (Wednesday): Connected Banking Summit, Fairmont Nile City Hotel

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday) El Alamein International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport

10-12 September (Thursday-Saturday): Egyptian Entrepreneurship Sector Diagnostics Report Summit, El Gouna.

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

10-11 October (Saturday-Sunday): Egypt Women's Health Summit (EWHS), Cairo Marriott Hotel

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): IEX Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Food Africa, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

July 2026: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to visit Egypt.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

4Q 2026: Banque du Caire IPO

2027

16-18 January (Saturday-Monday): Agri Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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Nassef Sawiris’ take-it-or-leave-it offer for OCI Global

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Privatization progress satisfies IMF’s seventh review targets

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