Privatization progress clears path for USD 1.6 bn IMF disbursement

Good morning, Egypt. We have a morning of consolidation moves, but first, a Pharaohs’ result worth celebrating.

Mohamed Salah is leading Egypt into the World Cup knockout stages for the first time in our nation’s history after yesterday’s 1-1 draw with Iran in Seattle. Egypt finished second in Group G after an early-morning rollercoaster for fans as the standings swung repeatedly. The team will head to Dallas to face Australia next Friday at 9pm Cairo time.

But we paid a heavy price for the draw. Salah was subbed off in the 57th minute and was seen with ice on his knee. Center-back Mohamed Abdelmonem and left-back Ahmed Fattouh also came off the field injured, and midfielder Mohanad Lasheen was suspended from playing the next game after a second yellow. A medical examination found that Salah suffered a hamstring strain, while Fattouh tore his hamstring, raising doubts about whether they will return for the next game. Abdelmonem sustained a severe ankle bruise and is undergoing medical treatment to try to get him ready for the game.

B’naire Nassef Sawiris has put a price on ending the OCI Global standoff and said take it or leave it. NNS Holding has launched a voluntary allcash offer for all of OCI’s issued and outstanding shares, designed to break the deadlock around the proposed merger with Orascom Construction. A follow-up filing two days later confirmed the offer is final and signalled NNS would sell its own OCI stake if a third party came in with a higher bid for all shareholders.

The FRA has issued a paired regulatory package designed to curb systemic risk in the NBFI sector before it materializes. The first ties geographic expansion for non-bank finance firms to clean compliance records, and the second turns reins. into a solvency test for ins. providers. Read together with the CBE’s quiet tightening of bank-to-NBFI credit, the regulatory frame around NBFIs keeps hardening in the same direction.

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Privatization push pays off

Egypt’s recent state-asset sales satisfy the IMF’s latest review targets, clearing the way to unlock roughly USD 1.6 bn in financing, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The seventh review under the USD 8 bn Extended Fund Facility is progressing, with the IMF aiming to hold board meetings this summer that would unlock the disbursements, IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack said in a press briefing on Thursday. One review remains, set to be completed by the end of the year.

Two agreements this month pushed the privatization front — Taqa Arabia’s 10% stake in 172 military-affiliated Wataniya fuel stations, marking the first partial sale of a military-connected asset to the private sector, and Alcazar Energy’s USD 420 mn deal to manage the Gabal El Zeit wind farm, with proceeds earmarked to pay down public debt.

Two reform fronts: On tax, Kozack said the Fund welcomes Egypt’s continued efforts to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization, which she said is needed to create fiscal space for priority social and development spending. On divestment, the Fund is continuing to engage closely with the authorities on advancing the state ownership policy, including through the asset divestment program, she added.

Subsidy shift not starting yet

The government’s planned shift from in-kind food subsidies to cash support will not start on 1 July, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said during his weekly press conference last Wednesday (watch, runtime: 49:01). “I did not say 1 July,” Madbouly said, clarifying that FY 2026/27 would see the state begin moving toward the new system, but only once the government finalizes the mechanics. The gov’t is still reviewing eligibility lists, inflation risks, price-control questions, and the mechanisms needed to make the switch without disrupting beneficiaries.

REMEMBER- We looked at the planned subsidy switch last week, when economists told us the core risk is not the idea of cash support itself, but whether implementation can protect beneficiaries’ purchasing power as prices shift. The FY 2026/27 budget allocates EGP 832.3 bn to subsidies, including EGP 175.3 bn for food subsidies and EGP 55.3 bn for Takaful and Karama transfers.

Delayed, again

Egypt and Saudi Arabia delayed the commercial start of their USD 1.8 bn, 3 GW electricity interconnection to the end of this year, pushing it to the back of their 2H 2026 target window, Shorouk News reports, citing a senior Electricity Ministry official. The delay lands as the government braces for record summer consumption, with peak load projected to reach around 42k MW in August, up from roughly 39.8k MW last summer.

REMEMBER- The interconnection project — one of the region’s largest — is already years behind its original 2018 tender. Trial operations for the first 1.5 GW phase were initially advanced to April 2025 before slipping to early 2026. In February, the government said the link would go live “within the coming weeks” — a target that has since come and gone.

Sudan link underperforming: Separately, the official revealed Egypt’s existing Sudan interconnection is currently running at only 75-80 MW, well below its 300 MW phase-one capacity. The official attributed the shortfall to “unfinished technical reinforcement works and equipment installation on the Sudanese side.”

Tickets, please!

The second phase of the East Nile Monorail is now open to passengers, running from Cairo Stadium Station in Nasr City to Justice City Station in the New Capital from 6am to 9pm daily, according to reporting by Extra News (watch, runtime: 03:57), confirming an earlier Transport Ministry statement. The new stretch adds the crucial Cairo Stadium-El Moshir Tantawy leg to the route, taking the line from Nasr City to the New Capital.

Why it matters: The line now plugs into the wider mass-transit grid, connecting with Metro Line 3 at Cairo Stadium, the BRT at El Moshir Tantawy station in New Cairo, and the LRT at Arts and Culture Station in the New Capital. This makes the monorail more viable for commuters than it was in the first operating stretch, which began at Moshir Tantawy and was harder to reach without a car. We tested the monorail in May, when the operating route ran from El Moshir Tantawy to Justice City, which took a little under an hour end-to-end.

PSA-

WEATHER- We are bracing for hotter days this week across the country, with a high of 35°C in the capital, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s several degrees cooler in Alexandria, which is looking at a high of 30°C.

The big story abroad

Leading today’s news cycle is the worst military escalation in the US-Iran war since the interim truce was reached two weeks ago. US forces retaliated against drone strikes on commercial tankers — a container ship and an oil tanker — in the Strait of Hormuz by striking Iranian targets yesterday, US Central Command said. Iranian state TV had reported that the Revolutionary Guard fired warning shots at vessels using unapproved channels.

The Lebanese front is also tensing up. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem rejected a US-brokered truce between Beirut and Tel Aviv a day after it was signed, characterizing it as a surrender. The Friday pact paired a staged Israeli pullback from southern Lebanon with Lebanese army deployment and temporarily letting Israel occupy a security zone.

Meanwhile, on Wall Street: SpaceX will list on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 on 7 July — weeks after it went public — in a move expected to trigger more buying from passive investors. The rocket and AI company will likely enter the index with a weighting shy of 1%, and see a stock price boost amid interest from ETFs.

Tech world faces desperate memory shortage: Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for permission to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies, a Chinese firm blacklisted by the Pentagon. This coincides with price hikes announced by the iPhone maker and Microsoft on key devices, passing a portion of skyrocketing memory costs onto consumers, as the dwindling supply of memory chips squeezes the industry.