Smart ring market Oura puts roots down in Abu Dhabi

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Investors haggle over DIP’s price tag + an Emirati could enter the race for UN top job

Good morning, everyone. The Future Health Summit is in full swing in Abu Dhabi as it enters its final day, bringing together healthcare players from around the world. One such name is smart ring maker Oura, which is putting down roots in Abu Dhabi and whose executives tell us has made its first local hires. Oura also launched its first project in the country: a study looking at whether ring data can give early warning signs about premature birth in elevated-risk pregnancies.

On the flip side, Abu Dhabi-based CNTXT AI is making moves outside of the UAE with a new office in Silicon Valley that’ll double as a deployment center for testing its clients’ robots and partners’ hardware before rollout.

PLUS- Some would-be investors in DIP Holding’s listing are asking Dubai Investments to lower its valuation expectations and sweeten the offering, even after it committed to some AED 2.2 bn in dividends over three years.

AND- It’s earnings season for Emirates NBD, Emirates Islamic, Dubai Islamic Bank, and Commercial Bank of Dubai, which delivered their 3Q and 9M results.

UAE official up for UN top job?

An Emirati could join the race to succeed António Guterres as UN secretary-general. Supporters of State Minister Lana Nusseibeh have been sounding out UN missions on a possible run, and she could enter the race as early as this week, the Financial Times reports, citing diplomats and UN insiders. Nusseibeh was the UAE’s ambassador to the UN from 2013 to 2024.

The race is deadlocked, and that is drawing in late entrants. Six months of hustings have failed to produce a candidate that all five permanent members of the Security Council can back. Frontrunner Rebeca Grynspan, the former Costa Rican vice-president who heads UN Trade and Development, secured nine “encourage” votes in last week’s straw poll. That would be enough to secure the final vote, but she also drew two “disapprovals” from veto-wielders. Second-placed Rafael Grossi of the IAEA also drew two “encourage” votes. Whoever is elected inherits an organization in a budget crisis, with the US, traditionally its largest donor, pushing for deep cuts.

REMEMBER- It’s been a big week for Emirati officials: Ali Alhosani has recently become the first Emirati elected executive director at the IMF.

Investors haggle over DIP’s price tag

Some would-be investors in DIP Holding’s DFM listing are asking Dubai Investments to lower its valuation expectations and sweeten the offering further, even after it committed to some AED 2.2 bn in dividends over three years, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Banks are pitching valuations of AED 11-14 bn, which, at the top end, with DIP’s AED 700 mn 2026 payout, would give a 5% dividend yield. That would put it in line with toll operator Salik and parking operator Parkin. The lower end would put it closer to Dubai Residential REIT. Some investors want a yield closer to Emaar’s 9%, while others argue DIP’s long-term leases and steady rent justify a lower yield. No decision has been made on valuation yet.

Management is open to a discount, but not that much: Dubai Investments CEO Khalid bin Kalban told Bloomberg the company would “definitely be looking” at pricing below the banks’ fair value estimates to lift the yield. He rejected the Emaar comparison, though, saying that developers are exposed to market demand and cyclicality, while DIP has no capex and covers maintenance through tenant service charges, which makes it closer to an infrastructure play.

The war is still hanging over the IPO: Investors are also worried that hostilities could resume after the US midterm elections next month, according to Bloomberg’s sources. Some argue that regional stocks are now cheap after the sell-off, so DIP has to give them a reason to buy a new listing over shares already on the market.

More listings could follow: Bin Kalban said Dubai Investments could list other portfolio companies as soon as next year. The company has previously flagged Emirates Glass and district cooling provider Emicool as IPO candidates.

REMEMBER- DIP is the first real test of investor appetite for a UAE listing since the war froze the pipeline, and the offering has already been scaled back once. Dubai Investments is selling 20% of DIP Holding, down from an earlier 25%, according to its intention-to-float notice. Management had previously valued the unit at AED 10.8-11 bn. Dubai Holding, EGA, and Al Habtoor have all paused or shelved listings this year. Analysts told us a weak debut could mean lower valuations or further delays for the issuers waiting behind DIP.

Maven opens in Dubai

Maven Investment Partners is closing its New York office to double down on Dubai, where the proprietary trading firm has recently opened shop, Bloomberg reports, citing a person it says is familiar with the matter. Leadership sees the most room for growth in Dubai, which gives the firm a base from which it can trade both European and Asian markets. The employee-owned multistrategy firm also has offices in London, Hong Kong, Amsterdam, Chicago, and Monaco.

EGA brings more of Al Taweelah back online

Nearly half the reduction cells at Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter are now back up and running, seven months after Iranian strikes knocked out production in March, the firm said in a statement. EGA has restarted 613 of its nearly 1.3k cells, almost double the 315 that were running in late August. Full production isn’t expected until 1Q 2027. The site’s alumina refinery, which turns bauxite into the alumina the smelter runs on, is at about half capacity.

REMEMBER- EGA has also been developing its workarounds to shore up supplies from elsewhere, including by taking a stake in Eco Green, an Italian aluminium recycling company, and planning to move more exports to the east coast. It has also recently said it is waiting on its first shipment of Guinean bauxite following the settlement of its dispute with the Guinean government.

The attacks keep coming

More cyberattacks have targeted key sectors in the past months, with the UAE Cyber Security Council saying in an X post that it dealt with 750k attempts targeting sectors like energy and education. Techniques used by attackers include phishing and AI-powered attacks — something we’ve flagged has been on the rise, particularly when it comes to targeting the financial sector.

ICYMI- Cyberattacks are now costing the economy up to USD 2.5 bn a year, experts have recently told us. Previous rounds of attacks in July and August also involved targeting the energy and education sectors, as well as aviation.

PSA

WEATHER- Abu Dhabi will see highs of 38°C and overnight lows of 27°C, while Dubai is slightly warmer, with highs of 39°C before cooling to 28°C overnight, according to our favorite weather app.

The big story abroad

Meta will begin offering shares without voting rights in January 2027 to pay for its costly AI expansion. The decision comes as Meta spends heavily on advanced chips and data centers to compete with AI rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic.

Italy has brought in tougher security rules after rioters, some of them minors, reportedly looted shops, started fires, and damaged property in Milan’s main shopping area amid anti-government protests. A government decree will send 500 extra soldiers to Milan for the rest of the year, make parents pay for damage their children cause, and make it easier to take minors aged over 14 to court.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told US envoy Steve Witkoff that Russia is willing to restart three-party peace talks with the US and Ukraine in early November. The talks would focus on setting up a postwar security arrangement for Russia and Ukraine. Officials from the three countries have met on and off throughout the war.

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Oura makes first hires in UAE as it launches its first Abu Dhabi health pilot

Smart ring maker Oura is building an on-the-ground presence in the UAE and has made its first local hires as it launches the first research project under its partnership with Abu Dhabi’s Department of Health (DoH), Oura SVP of Science Shyamal Patel tells EnterpriseAM. The company has hired two scientists to support its UAE research, both PhD holders who have previously done research in the Middle East. “They understand how research works, and the specific problems and questions that are important to this region,” Patel said.

Oura is “actively working on” setting up an office and will have staff based in Abu Dhabi, Patel said. He did not put a figure on the company’s investment in the UAE or say how large the local team will grow.

Oura’s first project in the UAE: A 24-month pilot testing whether data from the Oura Ring can give early warning of spontaneous premature birth, according to a press release (pdf). The study, called Project Cradle, is the first of three pilots under the broader partnership, which was signed in May and focuses on using wearable technology for preventive health care.

The details: The project will focus on women with elevated-risk pregnancies, tracking heart rate, heart rate variability, sleep, and activity, which researchers will pair with clinical outcomes and with Abu Dhabi’s clinical and genomic data. The aim is to find a reliable signal ahead of preterm labor in an individual woman, early enough to guide treatment and care.

Scouting local partners: Oura has spent the months since signing the initial partnership with the DoH finding clinical, research, and technology partners in the emirate. Corniche Hospital and Mediclinic Airport Road are the clinical partners for the first study. Oura is also establishing a partnership with the Institute of Healthy Living Abu Dhabi for a separate study it plans to launch. Abu Dhabi health giant PureHealth has also come on board as a technology and health system partner, Patel said.

The sample size is still being finalized, but Oura wants to capture “several hundred” preterm births, which means recruiting two to three times as many women. “It’s going to be quite an ambitious project,” Patel said, adding that preterm birth is an under-researched area. The study will be open to the wider population living in the UAE, not only Emiratis.

Adding genomic data gives a fuller picture of each participant’s risk, Patel said. “You need to understand the phenotype, the genotype, and the environment of an individual in order to fully characterize their health.” The ring captures physiology and behavior, while genetic data can point to inherited risk factors.

The study will run within DoH’s data governance and Trusted Research Environment framework, with Oura’s team of more than 50 in-house MDs and PhDs leading the analysis of the wearable data. It starts in the coming weeks, with results expected in 2028.

What’s next: Oura’s agreement with Abu Dhabi initially targets women’s health, including preconception and perinatal care, so the next two pilots will also focus on women’s health, including pregnancy and fertility, as well as cardiometabolic health, Patel said.

The UAE push comes weeks after Oura postponed its planned Nasdaq IPO on 29 September, citing uncertainty in the IPO market. The company says it is profitable.

Zooming out

The partnership fits Abu Dhabi’s drive to draw global health and life sciences firms to the emirate. In April 2025, it launched the Health, Endurance, Longevity, and Medicine (HELM) cluster, led by the Department of Economic Development, the Abu Dhabi Investment Office (ADIO), and DoH. HELM is a platform for the research, development, manufacturing, and commercialization of biotech, new medicines, medtech, and digital health.

The cluster is projected to attract more than AED 42 bn in investment, add AED 94 bn to Abu Dhabi’s GDP, and create 30k jobs by 2045. ADIO offers business support to companies that set up in the cluster. Partners include MBZUAI and Hub71 on AI-driven research and venture funding, alongside new life sciences labs at Masdar City.

CNTXT AI opens US office to bring robots back to Gulf, eyes Europe and China next

Abu Dhabi-based CNTXT AI opened a new Silicon Valley office, and it’s using it as much to bring robots home as to sell into the US, CEO and co-founder Mohammad Abu Sheikh tells EnterpriseAM. The office, in Milpitas, California, doubles as a deployment center, where the startup tests its clients’ robots and partners’ hardware before deploying them. The Wall Street Journal first reported the US expansion.

Most of its data supply clients are in the Valley: About 90% of clients in that part of the business are in Silicon Valley, mostly hyperscalers and robotics labs, Abu Sheikh says. Most of its USD 300 mn in committed revenue comes from US hyperscalers, AI developers, and large enterprises, making it necessary for the startup to operate in the same time zone, Abu Sheikh says. Across the whole company, CNTXT serves more than 250 government and enterprise customers in the Middle East and the US.

The startup plans to hire a senior vice president of revenue, a vice president of marketing, and a commercial team of 15 to 25 people in the first year of its US operations, Abu Sheikh confirmed.

What CNTXT actually does: The two-year-old company has three businesses. The biggest sells training data: it labels and annotates data for AI labs, hyperscalers, and enterprise AI teams, combining automation with human reviewers. The second is its own models, led by Munsit, an Arabic voice AI that CNTXT says is trained on more than 110k hours of audio across more than 25 dialects and now has more than 300k users. That’s roughly double the c. 150k it reported when it raised its USD 60 mn series A in June. The third and fastest-growing business is physical AI: CNTXT runs robotics training facilities and a network that records people doing real-world tasks, data that robotics labs use to teach machines to work outside the lab.

The wager is on a data shortage: AI models have outgrown the data available to train them, Abu Sheikh argues, and the gap is widest for robots that have to work in kitchens and warehouses. “Buyers are no longer short of compute or hardware. They are short of real-world data they are legally allowed to use, and that is what we supply,” he tells us. He told the WSJ the Gulf’s advantage is its large blue-collar workforce and its hotels, warehouses, and data centers, which match those of the US and Europe. He also cited supportive regulators.

And on a deployment gap: Lots of data is being collected, but very few humanoid robots are deployed anywhere yet, Abu Sheikh says. CNTXT wants to close that gap at home, deploying clients’ robots in Gulf sites where it gathered their training data. The office also works the other way, giving US companies a way into Gulf AI projects.

What’s next: Europe, including the UK, is CNTXT’s next market, and Abu Sheikh says China is “also interesting.”

The bigger picture

CNTXT AI isn’t the only UAE AI company setting up shop in the US: G42’s sovereign cloud arm Core42 is more than tripling capacity at its Buffalo, New York site, from 18 MW to 60 MW, and the site serves as the hub for its US operations. It has also leased space in a Minneapolis office tower being converted into an AI data center, adding to G42’s operations in California, Texas, and New York. G42 itself incorporated G42 USA in Delaware last year. Last month, it was again reported to be exploring a sale of a majority stake to US investors to secure long-term chip access, though a US outpost looks the more likely outcome. G42-backed Presight already sells into the US through partners, and Abu Dhabi’s own government is next: several US cities are already looking at the TAMM super app, and its first customer under the new TAMM Global company is expected to be American.

GO DEEPER- Abu Sheikh spoke to us for My Morning Routine and on why homegrown developers are pivoting to native Arabic data.

3Q results from Emirates NBD, Emirates Islamic, DIB, CBD

Emirates NBD posts flat 3Q earnings despite stronger income and lending

Emirates NBD’s net income held flat q-o-q at AED 6.4 bn in 3Q 2026, even as total income rose 6% to AED 14.3 bn, according to the lender’s financials (pdf). Net interest income climbed 9% to AED 10.4 bn, but higher operating costs and impairment charges prevented the bottom line from following suit, the bank said in a separate earnings release (pdf).

On a 9M basis, net income rose 2% y-o-y to AED 19.3 bn as total income climbed 15% to a record AED 42.2 bn. Earnings growth lagged the top line as impairment charges swung to AED 2.1 bn from a reversal a year earlier, largely on provisioning at DenizBank, while hyperinflation charges also increased.

RBL is starting to show up in the numbers: Gross loans have jumped 27% since the start of the year to AED 833 bn, while deposits have increased 19% to AED 935 bn. As we’ve previously flagged, RBL Bank had only been consolidated for 13 days of 2Q, making 3Q the first full period to reflect the Indian lender after Emirates NBD’s USD 2.8 bn acquisition of a 60% stake. Loan growth excluding RBL still came in at 18% YTD, so the expansion was not all acquisition-driven.

The regional push is widening too: Emirates NBD also agreed to acquire HSBC Egypt’s retail business this summer. Meanwhile, the impaired-loan ratio improved to 2% from 2.4% at end-2025 despite rapid lending growth.

Impairment reversal lifts Emirates Islamic’s 3Q earnings 21.4%

A sharp swing in impairments gave Emirates Islamic’s 3Q earnings a boost, with net income jumping 21.4% y-o-y to AED 1.0 bn even as total operating income rose just 2.4% to AED 1.6 bn, according to the lender’s financial statements (pdf) and earnings release (pdf). The bank booked an AED 109.4 mn impairment reversal, versus an AED 92.1 mn charge a year earlier. Meanwhile, net income from financing slipped 2.7% as distributions to depositors and sukuk holders climbed 43.8%, offsetting a 12.8% rise in gross financing income.

On a 9M basis, net income edged up 1.2% y-o-y to AED 2.7 bn, while total operating income rose 6.0% to AED 4.7 bn. That reverses the trend seen in 1H, when net income fell 8% even as the top line grew. Non-funded income did more of the lifting this time, while impairments swung to an AED 141.5 mn charge from an AED 43.8 mn reversal a year earlier.

The balance sheet kept growing at double-digit rates: Customer financing has risen 14.4% since the start of the year to AED 101.6 bn, while deposits have increased 13.4% to AED 115.8 bn, extending the financing growth seen in 1H.

CBD’s 3Q net income rises 9.4% as credit losses fall

Lower credit costs gave Commercial Bank of Dubai’s (CBD) 3Q earnings a lift, with net income rising 9.4% y-o-y to AED 969 mn even as total operating income slipped 2.3% to AED 1.5 bn, according to its management discussion and analysis report (pdf) and financials (pdf). Expected credit losses fell 61.8% to AED 74 mn, while net interest income rose 8.4% to AED 1.1 bn, helping offset weaker non-funded income.

On a 9M basis, net income increased 4.1% y-o-y to AED 2.7 bn, while operating income edged up just 0.9% to AED 4.4 bn. Expected credit losses fell 22.6% to AED 314 mn, extending the lower-provisioning trend that supported 2Q earnings.

Loans are running well ahead of deposits: Net loans and advances have climbed 8.5% since the start of the year to AED 109.6 bn, while customer deposits have risen just 0.7% to AED 112.2 bn.

Asset quality moved in the right direction too: The non-performing loan ratio improved to 3.0% from 3.5% a year earlier, while provision coverage rose to 107.0% from 98.9%. CBD also tapped the AT1 market over the summer, returning with a new issuance after redeeming its previous USD 600 mn bond in April.

Healthcare moves from summit, Habib Al Mulla goes to Shanghai, no rest for Adia’s India IPO drive, Invictus offloads Merec stake

Abu Dhabi gets a slice of the Mounjaro supply chain

Lilly’s weight-loss jabs could soon be boxed in Kezad: Mubadala Bio will handle localized packaging and logistics for Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 medicines, the drug family that includes Mounjaro, from a 125k sqm packaging and warehousing site in Kezad, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. The two announced the partnership at the Abu Dhabi Future Health Summit this week.

The details: The work will be phased in subject to quality and regulatory sign-off, and no financials or timeline were disclosed. It still gives Mubadala Bio a marquee name for its contract manufacturing pitch. Lilly gets a regional base in a market that was an early Mounjaro launch market in 2022 and became the second country to register its new oral weight-loss pill Foundayo in April.

ALSO FROM THE SUMMIT- IHC-owned Adcan Pharma is partnering with MS Pharma to localize biosimilars in the UAE, according to a statement. The partnership covers local manufacturing, packaging, testing, and batch release of biosimilars, injectables, and oral drugs, with a focus on biosimilars. As part of the partnership, Adcan will set up a UAE lab that can carry out the full range of quality testing for monoclonal antibodies. No financials or timeline were disclosed.

Vitalls secures USD 1.5 mn seed commitment

UAE-based healthtech startup Vitalls landed a USD 1.5 mn seed pledge from Singapore-based EST Growmore, the investment arm of EST Group, as an anchor investor, with an option for a further USD 1 mn, according to a press release. Bringing EST Group’s telecom and healthcare networks on board as an anchor secures actual distribution channels, potentially giving the startup access to new markets and customers.

Making health records portable: Founded in 2023 by Mehdi Bouchenak, Vitalls is building an AI-powered digital health passport letting expats who frequently relocate store, manage, and share medical records across healthcare providers and countries. The funding will support product development and rollout, targeting internationally mobile individuals, families, and enterprises.

Habib Al Mulla takes its China play to Shanghai

Dubai-based law firm Habib Al Mulla & Associates set up shop in Shanghai, becoming the first Arab firm to offer business consulting services in China, according to a press release. The local presence is designed to help clients capture trade and investment prospects between China and the Middle East while giving the firm a base to support businesses and navigate the wider region’s regulatory frameworks.

NMC puts AED 150 mn behind Abu Dhabi expansion

Abu Dhabi-based NMC Healthcare Group is committing AED 150 mn (USD 40.8 mn) to overhaul and expand its Abu Dhabi facilities and footprint, adding capacity and expanding specialist services as the UAE’s healthcare demand continues to climb, according to a press release.

More beds, bigger emergency care: The program includes a multi-year transformation of Royal Hospital Khalifa City, with more than 20 additional inpatient beds and 20 new outpatient consultation and treatment rooms over the next five years. The emergency department will expand to more than 40 treatment bays, alongside upgrades to maternity units, pediatric services, VIP areas, and entrances.

REMEMBER- Outpatient care is already the bigger business for NMC, with consultations, diagnostics, day cases, and outpatient pharmacy accounting for roughly two-thirds of revenue, Chief Strategy Officer Chris Habib has recently told us.

No rest for Adia

Adia is anchoring another Indian IPO: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority’s (Adia) unit Stable was allocated 1.01 mn shares at INR 693 apiece, worth nearly INR 700 mn (c. USD 7.4 mn), in hospital operator Paras Healthcare’s INR 14.5 bn (c. USD 153.4 mn) listing, according to a stock exchange disclosure (pdf). That’s 10.73% of the c. INR 6.5 bn anchor book, a bigger slice than any single domestic mutual fund scheme took.

Adia just recently took an anchor position in what is on track to be India’s biggest IPO so far this year. The sovereign wealth fund secured 2.96% of the shares allotted for anchor investors in Jio Platforms’ USD 3.2 bn IPO, bringing its overall stake in the firm after the listing to 1.15% while avoiding diluting its pre-listing 1.16% holding.

Invictus brings Helios into Mozambique flour business

Invictus Investment is offloading up to a 49% minority stake in Mozambique’s dominant miller Merec Industries to pan-African PE firm Helios Investment Partners, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The ADX-listed agro-food outfit will keep majority control, but bringing in an institutional heavyweight less than two years after acquiring Merec is set to add seasoned regional muscle and split the capex bill for continental expansion. The process is expected to close by end-2026, subject to regulatory approvals. The transaction value has not been disclosed.

Merec? Invictus acquired Merec in January 2025. Founded in 1998, Merec’s mills, production facilities, and silos span Mozambique’s three main port regions, and it owns a grain terminal at Maputo port.

A direct line home

Abu Dhabi-based fintech Botim has partnered with Orange Egypt to let Egyptians in the UAE send money home directly to Orange Cash wallets, Orange said in a statement. Money arrives in the wallet 24/7, and recipients can move, spend, or withdraw the funds once they land.

IN CONTEXT- Botim’s Egyptian footprint already includes a 2023 tie-up with payments platform Fawry to let Egyptians in the UAE pay bills and send remittances home. This is its first partnership with a mobile network operator in Egypt, per the statement. Remittances hit USD 47.3 bn in FY 2025/26, up 29.6%, and the UAE is one of the larger sources.

French bond spreads hit their widest gap since the 2011 crisis, reviving the eurozone’s bank-sovereign “doom loop” debate

The gap between French and German borrowing costs has widened to levels not seen since the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis. That revives a question the bloc thought it had settled: whether one member’s fiscal troubles can still drag down its banks and spread from there. France’s 10-year yield premium over German bunds pushed above 150 bps on Tuesday, the first close at that level since January 2012, and spiked intraday to around 159 bps, the widest since 2011, according to Bloomberg. The move prompted Franklin Templeton’s fixed-income CIO, Sonal Desai, to warn that a fresh eurozone debt crisis — “version 2.0,” as she put it — “could be significantly worse” than the last one, Bloomberg reports separately.

France has become the market’s weak link. The government is trying to push through a cost-cutting budget amid nationwide protests over living costs and school conditions. Its debt-servicing costs have hit 25-year highs, and a 2027 presidential election looms with far-right and far-left candidates leading the polls, according to Reuters. BlackRock’s strategists frame it as a case study in how a “battle for capital” now punishes shaky credits: “France shows why selectivity matters,” they write, with the spread over bunds measuring the extra compensation investors want for the fiscal and political risk.

The reason the warnings carry weight is scale. France is a EUR 3 tn economy carrying about EUR 3.6 tn of debt, which Desai noted is more than 10 times what Greece owed during its crisis. “A simple bailout is not on the cards,” she said. France also remains an investment-grade borrower, one of several differences from the last crisis. So, the stress will play out on different terms.

The channel everyone is watching is the banks. Eurozone lenders hold their governments’ bonds as supposedly no-risk assets, so when those bonds fall, bank balance sheets take the hit — the “doom loop” that in the last crisis forced state bailouts and drained budgets further. The strain is already showing in equities, where European bank stocks have dropped about 10% over six weeks, five times the broader market’s fall and following a rally to 16-year highs, with France’s three biggest lenders down 17%.

The prevailing view is that the system is better built to absorb it. Euro-area debt-to-GDP has fallen back to its 2011 level of around 89%, even as France’s has swollen to nearly 120%, and banks are far better capitalized than in 2010. Eurozone lenders’ sovereign holdings have doubled since the crisis to EUR 4.3 tn (USD 4.8 tn), but their capital buffers have grown faster, and large French banks’ exposure to home-country debt is roughly 15-30% of their best-quality capital — by the calculations of Axiom Alternative Investments and WisdomTree — against more than 100% for Italian banks at the height of 2011-12.

Banks have also changed how they hold the debt. Lenders have cut domestic bonds to 41% of their sovereign holdings, from more than 50% in 2013, and now book 60% of their bonds at cost, which lets them avoid recording losses unless they are forced to sell. Piraeus CEO Christos Megalou, whose bank sits in the country where the last crisis began, said Greece now services its debt at rates well below the UK’s, and that regulators, policymakers, and banks have “battle-tested mechanisms” that make a repeat “mega-problem” unlikely.

…none of which makes the banks immune: “There is a limit to which you can insulate yourself from the domestic credit,” said Moody’s analyst Simon Ainsworth. Held-to-maturity accounting only hides unrealized losses until a lender is forced to sell, and Morningstar DBRS’ Maria Rivas said what ultimately matters is how investors treat portfolios sitting on those losses: A short episode should not move sentiment much, but a prolonged one could.

Higher sovereign yields also feed straight into funding costs. French banks are the EU’s largest wholesale debt issuers, so a permanently higher yield raises the “cost of money every time they refinance, and that compounds,” WisdomTree’s Aneeka Gupta said. A backstop is not automatic either, BlackRock notes, leaving “further volatility and spillovers” possible.

The wider frame is a global contest for capital. More than 80% of the world’s bonds now yield above 4%, against just 6.3% five years ago, so investors can afford to be choosy and are demanding more from weaker borrowers everywhere. That is steering money toward cleaner books. BlackRock favors US Treasuries, which it upgraded last week, and emerging-market local-currency debt, particularly in Latin America. It also sees selective value in better-financed euro names such as Spain, while staying neutral on euro-area government bonds overall. Franklin Templeton has tilted its own euro holdings toward shorter-dated Italian and French paper, with a more constructive stance on Spain and Germany.

The spread is the number to watch, and a sustained push past the 159 bps intraday peak would take France into territory it has not held since the crisis years. Beyond that, watch for any signal the European Central Bank will step in, the course of France’s budget fight and the run-up to the 2027 election, and the diversification rules the European Commission is due to propose in early 2027 to weaken the bank-sovereign link.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets were in the red in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei was down roughly 0.4% and South Korea’s Kospi was down around 0.9%, following a decision by the Bank of Korea to keep rates unchanged.

ADX	9,771	-0.6% (YTD: -2.2%)
DFM	5,860	+0.4% (YTD: -3.1%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,834	+0.2% (YTD: -1.1%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.6% o/n	4.9% 1 yr
TASI	9,926	−0.3% (YTD: −5.9%)
EGX30	52,855	+1.5% (YTD: +26.4%)
S&P 500	7,757	+0.6 (YTD: +13.3%)
FTSE 100	10,753	+0.2% (YTD: +8.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,208	+1.4% (YTD: +7.1%)
Brent crude	USD 110.11	+1.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.77	-0.6%
Gold	USD 4,130	-0.5%
BTC	USD 83,520	+0.6% (YTD: -4.7%)
Lunate JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.50	-0.6% (YTD: -6.0%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	147.98	0.0% (YTD: -2.6%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.68	-3.6% (YTD: +11.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.4% yesterday on turnover of AED 584.9 mn. The index is down 3.1% YTD.

In the green: National International Holding Company (+5.2%), Air Arabia (+2.1%), and Dubai Islamic Bank (+2.0%).

In the red: Sukoon Takaful (-5.0%), Islamic Arab Ins. Company (-4.9%), and Drake & Scull International (-3.5%).

Over on the ADX, the index fell 0.6% on turnover of AED 976.3 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.2%.

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

21-22 (Wednesday-Thursday): World Green Economy Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

26-27 October (Monday-Tuesday): Dubai AI Festival, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

30 October (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

2-5 November (Monday-Thursday): Adipec, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

2-6 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

4-16 November (Wednesday-Monday): ADIB rights trading period.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 November (Monday-Thursday): EMEA Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education Conference, Dubai College of Tourism, Dubai.

9-13 November (Monday-Friday): World Congress of Military Med, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

10-24 November (Tuesday-Tuesday): ADIB rights issue subscription period.

16-18 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Police Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

18-19 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Touchdown Middle East 2026, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

25-26 November (Saturday-Sunday): Doers Summit, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

4-6 December (Friday-Sunday): Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Al Maryah Island, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Water & Power Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East & North Africa Business Aviation Association Show, DWC, Dubai Airshow Site.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
14-17 January (Thursday-Sunday): MOC27 Motor, Outdoor & Camping Festival, Dubai Sevens Stadium, Dubai.
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
11-13 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Energy, Expo City, Dubai.
31 May-2 June (Monday-Wednesday): RailX Dubai, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
November: HR Tech, Abu Dhabi.
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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