THIS MORNING: PMI holds steady + Guinea bauxite is finding its way back to EGA

Good morning, everyone. Tokenization is now reaching private credit, and Zamanat is building a fund to open up access to channel capital into underserved regional businesses. Moving private credit on-chain changes who can access it, not whether borrowers can repay, Zamanat CEO Umair Tariq tells us. His firm secured an anchor commitment and is now assessing its prospects.

As the UAE’s PMI holds steady, pointing to improved business conditions, subsequently rising costs from firms are leading to a bite elsewhere. UAE contractors are increasingly unwilling to lock in prices on longer-term projects as they grapple with rising materials prices. The result? More cost risk passed onto developers and clients.

In M&A, Dubai-based Neopay is buying a 65% controlling stake in noon payments, the latest deal in a fast-consolidating payments market.

Plus: EGA is awaiting its first Guinean bauxite shipment since settling its dispute with the government, and Adnoc inked a multi-year LNG agreement for around 2 mn tons with Thailand’s Gulf Group, due to start in 2027.

EGA-Guinea ties are back in business

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is awaiting its first shipment of Guinean bauxite since settling its dispute with the country’s government, with a 66k-ton cargo loaded in late August now en route to the UAE, EGA said in a statement. The settlement locks in 4.9 mn tons of bauxite annually through 2044 for EGA — roughly a third of what its Guinean unit was exporting before the fallout in 2023.

The supply comes as EGA rebuilds after Iranian strikes knocked its Al Taweelah complex offline in March. The alumina refinery, which turns bauxite into the alumina the smelter runs on, is at around 50% capacity. The smelter has restarted a quarter of its reduction cells as of late August and is targeting full production in 1Q 2027.

It has also been strengthening its contingency plans, working to shore up supplies from elsewhere, including taking a stake in Italian aluminum recycling company Eco Green and planning to move more exports to the east coast.

REMEMBER- A settlement was originally reached in May this year following the shutdown of EGA’s Guinean unit last year, after the Guinean government seized its mining lease and accused it of failing to build an alumina refinery. At the time, an EGA statement described the agreement as made “under mutually beneficial commercial terms” and added that the supply agreement had been renewed without disclosing specific volumes or timelines.

DFSA takes up two amendments and shelves a third

The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) has shelved proposed changes to how it defines stablecoins and tokenized securities while pushing ahead with lighter rules for credit rating agencies (CRAs) and updated prudential reporting, according to a feedback statement (pdf). The regulator says it will consider the token proposals further in light of consultation feedback and communicate next steps separately.

What was shelved: The original proposals (pdf) would have narrowed the definition of a fiat-pegged crypto token to tokens backed only by reserves in the same currency as the peg. They would also have loosened the investment token definition so it captures hybrid on-chain and off-chain structures, such as tokenized sukuk.

An overview of the changes: The DFSA will now adopt a more principles-based approach when determining conflict of interest cases within the CRA framework, remove the need to disclose fees and charges on every announcement, and eliminate duplicative or overly prescriptive disclosure requirements.

What changes:

• Analysts used to be barred from rating a company if a close relative worked there. Now the test is whether any relationship with someone at the company could create, or look like, a conflict — which can catch a close friend while clearing a low-risk family tie;
• CRAs no longer have to disclose fees and charges in every rating announcement. The disclosure stays in annual reports and on their websites;
• CRAs no longer have to state whether the information behind a structured finance rating is public.

For prudential reporting, firms can look forward to simpler paperwork. Data previously split between the B180 and B120 forms will now just be collected in a redesigned B110 form.

The timeline: The CRA category changes will be implemented from 1 January 2027, while the prudential reporting amendments took effect on 2 October.

Wizz Air pushes back Abu Dhabi resumption

Wizz Air is holding off on resuming its flights to Abu Dhabi, pushing back its planned start date from later this month to 10 January following updates from European aviation authorities, The National reports, citing a company statement. The decision comes as extended flight paths around closed Iraqi airspace make the route “commercially unviable,” it said.

The budget Hungarian airline had been due to restart travel to Dubai and Abu Dhabi on 25 October, alongside routes to Jeddah and Amman. Despite having shut down its locally based Abu Dhabi JV in September 2025, it had been flying into Abu Dhabi through its Wizz Air Hungary and Wizz Air Malta.

IN CONTEXT- The postponement comes as regional hotel demand has been showing signs of recovery ahead of its peak season, with Abu Dhabi and Dubai among those slated to benefit from an expected 4Q rebound. A pickup in inbound air travel to the region was also set to help move things along. For now, Lufthansa and British Airways have said they’ll be making their return in the coming weeks.

Alabbar unveils more of Syria plan

Mohamed Alabbar’s Eagle Hills has signed a framework agreement with the Syrian government to develop urban and tourism projects in Damascus and Latakia. This turns part of the Emaar founder’s USD 18 bn planned investment pipeline for Syria into a signed agreement with the state. President Ahmad al-Sharaa attended yesterday’s signing in Damascus, according to Syrian state news agency SANA. Two projects will move straight to implementation, Public Works and Housing Minister Mustafa Abdul Razzaq said: the Tadamon Towers in Damascus and the Eco Life development on the Latakia coastline.

The first phase is affordable housing, which is where Damascus most needs the private sector. Syria’s housing deficit could pass 2 mn units by 2030 without an immediate response, Abdul Razzaq said, citing ministry estimates. On the tourism side, the projects could create more than 40k direct and indirect jobs, including over 10k permanent positions, Tourism Minister Mazen al-Salhani said.

REMEMBER- While state-linked UAE firms including DP World, Arada, and AD Ports are already involved in Syria’s reconstruction and lining up bns of USD for it, analysts previously told us that the question of pipeline capacity and execution is something else. Only one or two flagship projects are viable at a time due to infrastructure, financing, and physical constraints, they said.

UAE-Jordan’s new rail link on track

The UAE-Jordan railway project kicked off yesterday with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan arriving in Aqaba, Jordan to mark the launch of the Aqaba-Shidiya-Ma’an railway project, according to Wam. He was received by Jordan’s King Abdullah II, alongside other senior officials.

BACKGROUND: Jordan and the UAE inked an agreement on the USD 2.3 bn railway project back in 2024, with plans to connect Jordan’s Al Shidiya and Ghor es Safi mining regions with its sole maritime gateway in Aqaba. As part of this, the two agreed to set up the UAE-Jordan Railway Company to develop and operate the 360-km railway project. Financial close is expected in early 2027, and construction is estimated to take five years.

MGX might go for seconds

Several UAE investment funds — including Abu Dhabi’s MGX — and BlackRock are reportedly negotiating to join a USD 30 bn round of financing for OpenAI, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources. The UAE funders are expected to form a syndicate to invest as much as USD 10 bn. For BlackRock, the fundraise is ongoing, and details may change, the sources said. The ChatGPT-maker has been eyeing investors for a major capital raise that would boost the company to a USD 1.2 tn valuation before its public debut.

IN CONTEXT- MGX AI Investment chief Ali Osman told Bloomberg in February that MGX plans to spend as much as USD 10 bn annually on select companies in the next few years. MGX was among several investors co-leading a USD 30 bn Series G funding round for AI startup Anthropic, making it now a backer of three major AI rivals: OpenAI, xAI, and Anthropic.

Data point

55.3 — that’s the UAE PMI reading (pdf) for September, remaining unchanged from August as sustained improvement in business conditions allowed firms to raise output prices at the fastest pace in 15 years to offset rising input costs, including freight and raw materials. Exports also increased at the fastest pace since 2024, driving a rise in new orders — not as high as August levels, though.

September’s data is a sign that the non-oil sector “has moved past the mid-year slowdown linked to the Middle East conflict,” Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence David Owen said. Still, sentiment is subdued for the year ahead, a sign that firms “still view the economic outlook as uncertain,” Owen added.

Output rose at the fastest pace since February — before the war — on strong demand, and businesses staffed up in response, though staffing saw only a modest rise. Still, that’s an improvement from August, when employment fell for the second time in three months.

Dubai had the best month of 2026 so far, with the PMI rising to 54.5 in September, up from 54.1 in August, as output increased at the fastest pace YTD and new orders rose. Prices also rose at their fastest pace in 12 years, while backlogs continued to accumulate.

PSA

WEATHER- The mercury is reaching a high of 39°C in Dubai and 38°C in Abu Dhabi today, while the former will see an overnight low of 31°C and the capital will see a low of 30°C, according to our favorite weather app.

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The big story abroad

Anthropic’s lease of Google microchips has secured backing from major Wall Street banks. Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley have begun syndicating part of a USD 60 bn debt package — partially guaranteed by semiconductor maker Broadcom — in what stands as the largest chip-financing agreement to date. The move tests AI debt appetite as investors demand higher returns amid long-term profitability fears.

Singapore-based data center operator DayOne filed for a US IPO, marking the latest in a wave of public listing plans across the sector amid robust demand for AI infrastructure. The firm has secured more than 1.5 GW of bookings for capacity across Asia-Pacific and Europe since 2022, and closed a USD 4.5 bn Series C funding round in June.

McDonald’s is facing a proposed nationwide class-action lawsuit alleging that the company coordinates menu pricing between corporate locations and independent franchises using an AI system ​trained on nonpublic data.

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