Offset growth

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: US confirms participation in Expo 2030 Riyadh

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Humain begins its November with Aramco having closed on its acquisition of a 49% stake in the PIF-backed AI company, settling a funding question that has hung over the company since PIF started tightening what it puts into its portfolio holdings. Aramco will also be running Humain’s services across its own operations, which gives the company paying workloads that would otherwise sit with foreign cloud providers, and keeps Saudi industrial data on Saudi compute.

Meanwhile, the non-oil economy is doing better — but it’s not enough to offset what’s happening in the oil economy. The headline contraction of overall GDP is almost entirely because of the oil side of the ledger, which is also the line most likely to recover on its own as the shipping and security picture settles.

WEATHER- Fog, rain, and thunderstorms: Red and orange weather alerts have been issued across several regions with fog reported in parts of the Eastern Province and moderate to heavy rainfall forecast for parts of the Northern Borders, Hail, Makkah, Asir, Al Baha, and Jazan, according to the National Center for Meteorology. Thunderstorms threaten to bring flash floods and hail, while active winds are expected to stir up dust and sand in several areas, including Riyadh and Al Qassim.

PSA

New commercial registration? The 90-day clock is running. The Commerce Ministry is telling business owners that any activity needing a license must secure one within 90 days of being entered in the Commercial Register. Let the window lapse, and the activity’s registration is canceled outright. The same deadline includes activities that don’t require a license. Businesses must show they are actually operating within 90 days, or the registration goes too.

Washington RSVPs Expo 2030

The US has signed on to Expo 2030 Riyadh. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan put Washington’s name to the Expo 2030 participation contract on the sidelines of the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Atlanta, according to a statement from the US State Department. It’s the first step toward a US Pavilion at the six-month global exhibition, which is expected to draw participants from around the world to Riyadh in October 2030.

Canelo takes the WBC

Saúl “Canelo” Álvarez took the World Boxing Council (WBC) super-middleweight crown at The Venue, outpointing France’s Christian Mbilli by unanimous decision, SPA reported. Part of Riyadh Season, the nine-bout bill split five to the rest of the world and four to Mexico, with Saudi’s Sultan Almohammed beating Mexico’s Erick Villegas on points for a home victory.

It’s one of the few events to push through: Riyadh’s sports calendar has split on the security situation. WWE’s Crown Jewel is still set for the capital this Saturday, and the AFC Asian Cup 2027 is also on track to run from 7 January to 5 February. Others have slipped — the Six Kings Slam tennis is pushed to December, and the Dakar Rally pulled out of the Kingdom altogether. The Joy Awards, Red Sea Film Festival, and Soundstorm (MDLBEAST) have all been pushed or canceled too.

War watch

The Saudi-led coalition said it carried out a “precision military operation” against key assets it says the Houthis use to support their war effort, including ballistic missile and drone capabilities. In a statement posted on X yesterday, coalition spokesperson Turki Al Malki accused the Houthis of deliberately attacking civilians in Yemen and Saudi Arabia and threatening Red Sea shipping, and warned that the group would “bear the consequences of its hostile behavior” if the attacks continue. The statement did not say where the strikes took place or what specifically was hit, but two hours later Al Malki posted a video on X showing what he said was the destruction of Houthi assets in Al Hodeidah and Dhamar.

Houthis report new Saudi strikes across eight provinces: Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said yesterday that Saudi Arabia had carried out 75 airstrikes and missile attacks over the previous 24 hours, targeting what he called civilian assets in Saada, Taiz, Amran, Ibb, Dhamar, Lahj, Al Hodeidah, and Al Jawf. That brings the total number of Saudi strikes to 3,830 since the escalation began, he said.

Growing fears of a wider regional war are raising security concerns across the Gulf. The latest developments in Yemen come as Iran threatens a forceful response “without geographical limits” to any renewed US and Israeli military campaign, Bloomberg reported. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei told commanders to be ready to strike back immediately and to widen their pool of possible US and Israeli targets. Iran’s army separately cautioned that any new attack by the US and Israel would extend the conflict to a far broader area.

Data point

6.5k — that’s how many franchise registrations Saudi Arabia recorded in the first nine months of 2026, up 53% from 4.2k at end-2025, according to a Commerce Ministry statement. Food and beverage, fuel and petroleum, and fashion led registrations.

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The big story abroad

Hedging the AI wager: Companies are increasingly relying on financial derivatives such as put options and credit-default swaps to shield themselves from a possible downturn in AI stocks, with the price of default ins. on Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle climbing to its highest level since 2021. Neoclouds and data centers are also weighing put options linked to the price of computing power and compute indexes as a safeguard in case computing prices fall.

German ministers vowed harsh punishment for the rioters and looters who vandalized shops and left more than 100 police officers injured in Frankfurt overnight. They also commended security forces for stopping the unrest from spreading further. The violence centred on Frankfurt on Saturday, as tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets in dozens of German cities to call for better education and a lower cost of living. The rallies were organized by the campaign group “Gen Z regelt,” which roughly means “Gen Z takes charge.” Masked rioters in Frankfurt, Germany’s financial capital, damaged 17 shops and looted five.

Overnight attacks by Russia hit energy facilities in four Ukrainian regions and cut power to hundreds of thousands of homes, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Electricity was partly restored on Sunday as an unusual humanitarian ceasefire in the Kherson region came to an end. The truce had allowed civilians to leave the Russian-held city of Oleshky.

Saudi GDP shrinks on the oil drag, even as non-oil economy ekes out growth

The non-oil economy is eking out growth, but it’s not enough to offset the oil slump. Non-oil growth came in at 1.9% y-o-y in 3Q 2026, while the overall economy contracted 3.8% y-o-y on the back of a 20.4% drop in oil activity, according to Gastat data (pdf). The contraction came as real GDP shrank 4.8% last month.

The quarterly view shows a recovery taking shape, with oil doing most of the work. Seasonally adjusted real GDP grew 1.3% q-o-q in 3Q, with oil activity rebounding 5.7% and non-oil activity expanding 0.6%. Government activity was the only major component to contract, falling 1.2% q-o-q.

OUR TAKE- Oil is now doing the work that state spending did earlier in the year. The quarterly rebound in oil activity points to the sector working through the production and export disruption, while government activity is contracting on both measures after underwriting non-oil growth through 1H. Non-oil growth came in at a 0.6% q-o-q clip as the fiscal contribution turned negative, which leaves the recovery resting on crude volumes returning rather than on the state topping up demand.

The disruption behind the annual figures is the eight-month US-Iran war, which has restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, hitting oil production and exports, as well as Houthi attacks on airports and energy facilities. The Kingdom has partly mitigated the disruption by rerouting crude shipments through its East-West pipeline to Red Sea ports.

REMEMBER- The IMF expects Saudi Arabia’s economy to contract by 3.3% this year, before rebounding to 7.9% growth in 2027. The Fund attributed the slowdown to disruptions to hydrocarbon production, shipping, and broader economic activity amid the Gulf conflict. S&P Global Rating affirmed the Saudi economy at A+ with a stable outlook, with a 0.9% contraction forecast for the year.

Saudi Arabia holds the biggest piece of Gulf investment in Syria’s rebuild, but the pieces don’t yet link up

Saudi Arabia now has money in most layers of Syria’s rebuild, but doesn’t have a clear plan connecting the layers together. John Calabrese, an assistant professor at American University in Washington, DC, sees a broader strategy in how the projects are bundled and sequenced. “The clearest evidence is the bundling of agreements across sectors and the focus on the grid and technical capacity,” he tells EnterpriseAM. He isn’t sure it becomes coordinated infrastructure: “It is possible that this is a one-off, the exception rather than the rule.”

SilkLink is the one project that spans several layers of the same system. The SAR 3 bn project bundles more than 4.5k km of fiber with data centers and international submarine cable landing stations. STC owns 75% of the project vehicle, against 25% for the Syrian Sovereign Fund, and describes the investment as part of a wider cross-border connectivity strategy linking Arab, Asian, and European markets.

Two of the biggest Saudi commitments sit in the same city without a stated connection. Elaf plans to develop a new Aleppo airport with a SAR 7.5 bn investment, upgrade and operate the existing facility during development, and finance an integrated navigation radar system. Work on the existing airport is expected to begin in early 2027, with the first phase targeting more than 2 mn passengers annually. Flynas is also taking a 49% stake in flynas Syria, with Syria’s civil aviation authority holding the other 51%, and operations are slated to begin in 4Q 2026. Neither company has said whether the airline will base aircraft at Aleppo, ensure traffic to the Saudi-backed airport, or coordinate cargo operations with Elaf.

The Saudi-backed airport, telecoms, power, and water projects are moving through separate ministries and contracts, Mustafa Ajlyakin, general manager at Jad United Services, tells us. At Jad’s distribution center in Aleppo, weak internet already slows shipment tracking, inventory visibility, and document exchange with foreign partners — bottlenecks a reliable Saudi-backed fiber network could ease. Schedules and physical connections need aligning between Saudi investors, Syrian authorities, and private operators before individual projects come online, he says.

The missing 400 km

Saudi Arabia and Turkey want a rail route through Jordan and Syria to Europe in three to four years. The route would carry goods, oil, gas, and passengers, but roughly 400 km of rail is missing between Syria and Jordan. Turkey is investing around USD 100 mn to rebuild the northern Syrian connection toward Aleppo and Damascus, and no broader financing plan has emerged.

Riyadh and Damascus have six months to find where their projects connect. They signed four MoUs in August covering roads, railways, civil aviation, and postal services, and the six months are for preparing an implementation plan. Separately, Saudi Arabia’s Al Rawaf and Syria’s Al Kawati secured a USD 300 mn contract to rehabilitate the Damascus-Palmyra-Deir Ezzor road, linking the capital with eastern Syria and routes toward Iraq, Sana reported.

The grid and the gateways

Airports, data centers, industrial sites, and water systems all depend on the same grid. More generation won’t be enough without reliable transmission, infrastructure finance expert Ajay Pratap S. Hari tells EnterpriseAM. Syria’s electricity output has risen to 3.5 GW from 915 MW when the new authorities took over, while 8% of the transmission system has been rehabilitated. Energy Minister Mohamed Al Bashir has warned that new solar projects will also need additional substations and supporting infrastructure. Saudi Arabia is building the software and control room for Syria’s grid, in a contract estimated at USD 60 mn, though the announcement doesn’t name the company or say who will run it.

The gateways Saudi cargo has to use belong to others. CMA CGM holds a renewed 30-year concession to operate Latakia’s container terminal and has since moved into Syrian dry ports, while DP World holds a separate 30-year, USD 800 mn BOT concession at Tartus. Damascus International Airport is being redeveloped by a USD 4 bn Qatar-led consortium. Delays at Tartus come from paperwork rather than capacity, Ajlyakin says: “Cargo moves smoothly when operators share data, documentation standards, and clear handover points. Problems arise at the seams: who holds the cargo, who is liable, and whose system records the transfer.”

Control by contract

Saudi investors hold control in several different forms: STC takes majority equity, flynas a minority JV, Riyadh Cables operating rights over a Syrian industrial asset, and Al Harfi contracted electricity sales for as long as 25 years. Equity shares don’t show who runs what, Calabrese says. “Some are joint ventures, some are Saudi-funded development projects, and some remain at the study stage. Equity shares are indicators, but they alone do not tell us who will exercise operational control. The unpublished terms of the SilkLink agreement are particularly important.”

Who sets tariffs and approves capex can matter more than the ownership split. The same goes for who bears demand risk and controls revenue repatriation and termination protections. “A 49% shareholder with strong operating rights and contractual protections can sometimes have a better position than a 51% shareholder without them,” Calabrese adds.

Full ownership and long-term contracts signal a bid for long-term influence, Ben Todd, partner at Dispatch Risk Advisory and a former US intelligence officer and diplomat, tells us. “When I see Saudi investors pursuing full ownership or locking in long-term contracts, that is a signal that they are looking for long-term influence,” he adds. Smaller stakes and partnerships may offer goodwill and a foothold rather than control, Todd notes.

Calabrese expects the near-term return to be strategic rather than financial, with Syria taking the visible value first in infrastructure, jobs, technical capacity, and — in some cases — equity. He sees the next Saudi money going to the links between what already exists: “If the current sequencing continues, I would expect Saudi capital to look next at logistics and dry ports, industrial projects linked to its power investments, and maybe even banking and payments.”

THE BOTTOM LINE- Five or six foreign investors now share Syria’s rebuild, which lowers the risk of any one of them controlling the system and leaves the handoffs between assets without an owner. For now, no single investor appears to control enough of those handoffs to make Syria’s infrastructure work as one.

Aramco closes Humain stake

Oil money, meet compute: Aramco has completed its purchase of a 49% stake in Humain, investing SAR 9.9 bn (USD 2.6 bn) in a company whose services it plans to use across its own operations, according to a press release. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) keeps a controlling 51%. Aramco bought in through a wholly owned subsidiary, and the deal also covers AI, computing, and digital assets. The PIF and Aramco had signed a non-binding term sheet at last year’s Future Investment Initiative (FII9) for the latter to acquire a significant minority stake in Humain.

Why this matters: Aramco brings both funding and a use for the infrastructure. The liquid contribution supports Humain’s expansion, while its plans to deploy Humain’s services across its operations give the AI company an industrial market to serve.

The money will support a sizable infrastructure push: Humain is targeting 3 GW of AI data center capacity by 2030. Launched in May last year, the company’s remit spans data centers, cloud platforms, AI models — including an Arabic-language model — and applications for businesses and governments. PIF and Aramco will contribute assets, expertise, and staff to support its expansion, putting Saudi Arabia’s two heaviest state balance sheets behind the AI firm.

IN CONTEXT- Humain wants customer contracts to help fund its expansion: CEO Tareq Amin told EnterpriseAM last month that the company was targeting 1.7 GW of data center capacity in 2027, with a domestic infrastructure fund seeking an initial USD 2.5 bn. Its financing model involves securing customers, then using those contracts to attract debt and outside equity — reducing reliance on shareholder funding. A separate fund would finance GPUs and other computing equipment.

REFRESHER- The buildout is already generating contracts: A JV between Hassan Allam Construction and India’s Sterling & Wilson secured an estimated USD 200 mn contract for the first phase of a Riyadh AI data center for Humain and STC subsidiary Center3. And its SAR 8.8 bn, 250 MW data center build contract with Al Moammar Information Systems (MIS) has moved to execution.

For Aramco, the stake does double duty: It gets shareholder exposure to AI-compute demand at what it calls attractive margins, a captive buyer for its own AI and digital assets, and infrastructure it can point back at its oil, gas, and chemicals operations. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser pointed to USD 11.3 bn in “technology realized value” since 2023, much of it from AI, as the track record behind the bet.

The CMA’s latest draft rules would make Tadawul’s worst-performers fix themselves in public

The Capital Market Authority (CMA) wants to put Saudi Arabia’s weakest listed companies under a public turnaround regime. Under a draft overhaul (pdf) of the corporate governance rules, out for consultation on the Istitlaa platform since Thursday, any listed firm that has run up accumulated losses of half its capital or more would face a stack of new disclosure duties. They kick in the moment it reports crossing that line, and only come off once losses fall back below 20%.

First, they’d have to open the books. Any company in that bracket would post on Tadawul the name and stake of every holder above 1% — or its 20 biggest shareholders, whichever list runs longer.

Then the recovery goes on the clock: Any investor holding 5% could put a loss-remediation plan on the general-assembly agenda, and the board would then have 60 days to disclose it: root causes, the fixes, measurable targets, and a timeline. Monthly or quarterly progress reports would follow, filed within five days of each period’s close, each measuring progress against the targets and explaining any slippage.

Minority shareholders get some leverage too: Shareholders representing at least 5% could demand an in-person general assembly running alongside the virtual one, with the board obliged to comply. The CMA could also order in-person meetings whenever it sees fit. Boards would have to field shareholder questions as a standalone agenda item and post assembly minutes on their website within 10 business days.

The draft tightens the ring around related-party dealings and board seats. It widens the definition of “related parties” to pull in the controlling persons behind corporate shareholders, subsidiaries’ executives, and relatives of both, and makes audit committees and boards prove those agreements are priced fairly and carry no preferential terms. On board picks, nomination committees would have to say why they turned a candidate down and give them a chance to close the gap. Every listed company would also need an independent director running its audit committee.

Fourteen listed companies would fall under the regime as it stands. Tadawul’s register of firms whose accumulated losses have already reached 50% currently include Methanol Chemicals, Takween Advanced Industries, Saudi Cable, Saudi Vitrified Clay Pipes and Saudi Industrial Export, alongside Saudi Printing and Packaging, AFG International, Naseej International Trading, Thimar Development Holding, Raydan Food, Tabuk Agricultural Development and Al Kathiri Holding, Gulf General Cooperative Ins. and United Cooperative Assurance. Seven companies sit in the 35-50% orange zone.

The bigger picture: This draft is the latest in a run of CMA moves since Mazen Al Sudairi took over as chairman, all pulling toward a market whose numbers investors can rely on and whose capital pools run deeper. In September, the regulator moved to rewire the IPO process, requiring banks to firmly underwrite offerings and large book-building bids to be backed by verified cash, after a year in which heavy oversubscription kept failing to carry through to aftermarket performance. Weeks earlier it capped public money market funds’ offshore holdings at 5% of net assets, steering liquidity into local deposits, murabaha, sukuk, and short-term paper.

Elm and Saudi Re climb as Saudi Chemical slides in 3Q

Digital business drives Elm’s 3Q

Elm Company’s net income rose 39.2% y-o-y to SAR 778 mn in 3Q, nearly four times the pace of revenue, as margins widened, according to a Tadawul filing. Revenue grew 10.1% to SAR 2.8 bn, on a 19.9% climb in digital business.

Behind the numbers: The higher-margin digital business segment drove the quarter, lifting gross income 18.3% to SAR 1.2 bn. Operating expenses fell 2.8% on lower G&A, credit-loss, and R&D costs, partly offset by higher sales and marketing spend. Associate and JV results swung to a SAR 4 mn net income from a SAR 6 mn loss, and higher Murabaha-deposit income helped. The segment’s gains also covered a 14.2% y-o-y drop in business process outsourcing revenue and a 2.1% dip in professional services over the period.

On a 9M basis, net income rose 18.4% y-o-y to SAR 1.9 bn on revenue of SAR 7.8 bn, up 17% y-o-y, with all three segments growing over nine months, digital business up 21.4%, business process outsourcing up 5.8%, and professional services up 7.4%.

Lower volumes and higher costs hit Saudi Chemical

Saudi Chemical Co. posted a 26% y-o-y drop in net income to SAR 64.6 mn in 3Q 2026, as lower sales volumes ran into higher input and shipping costs, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue slipped 5.1% y-o-y to SAR 1.7 bn on the drop in volumes.

Raw materials and freight ate into the numbers: Gross income dropped 14.4% to SAR 195.5 mn, squeezed by higher raw-material and shipping costs — the latter lifted by regional tensions that have pushed up Gulf freight and ins. rates — with a bigger Zakat and tax provision adding to the pressure. Operating income fell 23.9% to SAR 95.1 mn.

The 9M read holds up better: Over nine months, net income slipped just 2.6% y-o-y to SAR 232.4 mn on revenue of SAR 5.27 bn (up 1.3% y-o-y), as a stronger first half offset the 3Q softness. The same pressures ran through the period — higher raw-material and shipping costs and a bigger Zakat charge — partly offset by lower finance costs and a derivative revaluation gain.

Underwriting carries Saudi Re’s earnings

Saudi Reinsurance Co. (Saudi Re) saw net income rise 5.9% y-o-y to SAR 32.6 mn in 3Q 2026, while its ins. revenue jumped 77.1% y-o-y to SAR 813.1 mn on a bigger book, it said in a Tadawul filing.

The quarter’s growth came from underwriting. The ins. service result rose 55.4% y-o-y to SAR 184.4 mn on the larger book, helped by lower other operating expenses (down 54%) and reduced net ins. finance expenses (down 19%). Two things worked against the bottom line: net investment income fell 25.6% to SAR 28.3 mn, and the ins. result slipped 3% — hence the modest bottom line growth despite the revenue surge.

Over nine months, net income rose 63.5% y-o-y to SAR 194.2 mn on ins. revenue of SAR 2.1 bn, up 73.3% y-o-y. That figure carries a SAR 53.5 mn non-recurring surplus reversal from 2Q, so some of the nine-month jump is from that one-off.

Keir appoints a new chairman as ispace taps a Saudi executive

Keir International’s founder Mohammed Al Dhalaan (LinkedIn) is returning to the company as board chairman and a non-executive member, effective 29 October, following Osama Farij Al Owaidhi’s resignation, according to a Tadawul filing. Al Dhalaan previously served as the company’s CEO from 2008 to 2017.

ALSO- ispace appointed Anas Al Shuwayer (LinkedIn) as general manager and managing director of its Saudi Arabia entity, effective 1 November, according to a press release. He has more than 20 years of experience across the energy, industrial services, and critical infrastructure sectors and previously served as director of defense, critical infrastructure, and energy at Serco Saudi Arabia.

Al Muhaidib, ESR Group set up USD 5 bn industrial + logistics platform

Al Muhaidib and ESR Group are setting up a 50/50 joint venture to invest up to USD 5 bn in industrial and logistics property over the next five years, according to a joint statement. The new JV will develop, own, and manage assets in Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam, with connections to ports, airports, rail networks, and industrial cities. The pipeline covers both new developments and acquisitions.

The platform is expected to begin operations in 1Q 2027, with a dedicated team based in the Kingdom. By the time of publication, neither company had responded to our questions about the timeline and investment size of the first phase, the locations of its initial projects, or how the targeted investments will be split between new developments and acquisitions.

A new mall in Madinah Downtown

Cenomi Centers has awarded a SAR 825 mn (USD 220 mn) design-and-build contract to Lynx Contracting for the mall and office at Madinah Downtown, the PIF-owned urban-development in Al Madinah, according to a Tadawul filing. The 30-month job is a related-party transaction: Chairman Fawaz Alhokair and Vice Chairman Salman Alhokair hold direct interests in Lynx, and Managing Director Kamel Alqalam an indirect one.

Go Telecom gets into AI

Etihad Go Telecom is moving into AI infrastructure. The company awarded SAR 185.9 mn to Dell partner Total Technical Triangle Company (3T) to supply and install a cloud AI facility — Dell servers running Nvidia GPUs, with the systems and licenses to run it — over 12 months, according to a Tadawul filing. Go plans to sell the capacity to government and private customers as a new revenue line, and hasn’t yet put a figure on the earnings impact.

Academy of Learning’s lease-led expansion

Academy of Learning is adding a second Riyadh school without buying the building. Its wholly owned Altaallum Almulham Schools has taken a 30-year lease from High Standards Real Estate on a complex in Al-Janadriyah with room for 2k pupils, from kindergarten to secondary, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. The lease is worth SAR 275.7 mn over its life and should start contributing to the books in the first half of the fiscal year beginning July 2027.

Horizon Food puts a number on industrial power tariffs

Horizon Food expects its power and water costs to rise about 15% next year after applying the new industrial utility tariffs, but says the increase will be immaterial, equivalent to around 0.09% of its expected FY 2027 revenue, according to a Tadawul filing.

IN CONTEXT- Horizon Food is among the first to put a number on the amended electricity and water rates issued last week, which lifted industrial electricity to SAR 0.23 from SAR 0.2 per kWh, with matching water and sewage rises, starting 1 January 2027.

Commodity prices are set to rise 23% this year, and the World Bank sees relief for energy in 2027, but not for food

Global commodity prices are set to rise 23% this year, their second-highest level since 2013, according to the World Bank’s October Commodity Markets Outlook report (pdf). Energy costs are leading with a 32% jump. Food adds 10%, metals and minerals are heading for an all-time high, and precious metals are on track for a 40% gain. Brent is forecast to average USD 91 / bbl for the year, after touching c. USD 110 in mid-October. That average is below the market: the Bank sees 4Q at almost USD 100, while Brent was USD 115.81 a barrel on 27 October.

The war cut oil, gas, and refined-fuel supply. Diesel and jet fuel climbed far more than crude because refining, not crude, is the bottleneck — and Russia, the obvious stand-in, has damaged refineries of its own. Net diesel exports from Russia and the Middle East fell about 60% y-o-y in September, and other exporters covered only half the gap. And there is little left in the tank: global inventories have dropped about 2.4 mn bbl / d since the war began, leaving OECD government stocks at end-September at their lowest in more than three decades and the US reserve at its lowest since 1982.

Food is the second front: Black Sea attacks pushed grain prices 25% above a year earlier in 3Q; the Bank sees them up 14% this year and 9% in 2027. El Niño is lifting rice and sugar too, and wheat output is set to shrink 3% in 2026-2027.

Metals run on a different engine: supply is tight, and demand comes from renewables, data centres, and tech. The Bank’s metals index is up 25% for the year, and aluminum, copper, and tin have all hit records. Base metal prices edged lower in 3Q while staying near those highs. Precious metals slipped 7% in 3Q 2026 but are up 40% for the year, with gold, silver, and platinum January-September averages up 42%, 71%, and 110%.

SOUND SMART- Commodity markets price the raw inputs of the economy, and they trade each other’s problems. The Bank’s Special Focus tracks 15 commodities from the Bloomberg index in six groups; industrial metals and food pass volatility on most, and oil’s role in that jumped once the war began. A Hormuz problem becomes a diesel, fertilizer, and food problem.

Next year only partly helps. Prices fall 7%, with Brent at USD 79, energy down 12%, and food up another 7%. That assumes the war stays quiet and the El Niño harvest losses stay manageable. If both bite at once, the Bank’s adverse case puts Brent at USD 105 and food prices 12% above their own baseline, past their 2022 level.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed this morning. Japan’s Nikkei is down around 0.3%, while South Korea’s Kospi is up roughly 1% after shedding 16% in October. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.4%.

TASI	9,838	-0.8% (YTD: -6.2%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,333	-0.5% (YTD: -3.8%)
NomuC	21,636	+0.8% (YTD: -7.1%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	48,744	-1.7% (YTD: +16.5%)
ADX	9,466	-0.1% (YTD: -5.3%)
DFM	5,771	-0.8% (YTD: -4.6%)
S&P 500	7,580	-1.8% (YTD: +10.7%)
FTSE 100	10,730	+0.1% (YTD: +8.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,131	-1.2% (YTD: +5.8%)
Brent crude	USD 111.96	-1.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.86	-1.3%
Gold	USD 3,902	+0.1%
BTC	USD 77,944	+0.4% (YTD: -11.0%)
Sukuk/bond market index	892.08	+0.0% (YTD: -3.0%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	148.90	+0.1% (YTD: -2.0%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	19.42	+12.9% (YTD: +29.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.1 bn. The index is down 6.2% YTD.

In the green: Elm (+9.0%), BinDawood Holding (+5.4%), and Sumou Real Estate (+4.7%).

In the red: Saudi Pharma Industries and Medical Appliances (-10%), Alujain (-9.9%), and The Power and Water Utility Company for Jubail and Yanbu (-8.4%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 15 mn. The index is down 7.1% YTD.

In the green: Al Modawat Specialized Medical (+9.7%), Group Five Pipe Saudi (+7.2%), and Molan Steel (+7%).

In the red: Amwaj International (-18.7%), Hedab Alkhaleej Trading (-9.9%), and Saudi Top for Trading (-9%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Gulf General Cooperative Ins. Company is looking to reduce its capital by 58.67% to SAR 124 mn from SAR 300 mn, followed by a SAR 176 mn increase to restore it to SAR 300 mn, according to a Tadawul filing. The proposed increase includes issuing 12.6 mn shares to BlueFive Ins. Arabia through a suspension of preemptive rights, and 5 mn shares through the conversion of debt owed to two major shareholders.

MEANWHILE- Ades Holding shareholders approved a 100% capital increase to SAR 2.26 bn from SAR 1.13 bn through a bonus share issuance, with shareholders receiving one share for every share held, according to another Tadawul filing. The increase will be funded by capitalizing the share premium account to strengthen the company’s capital base and support its long-term growth and expansion plans.

CALENDAR

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

DECEMBER

14-16 December (Monday-Wednesday): The Innovation Driven Water Sustainability Conference (IDWS 2026), Jeddah

2027

JANUARY

12-14 January (Tuesday-Thursday): The Future Minerals Forum (FMF), Riyadh.

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday): The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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