USD 1.8 bn disbursement cleared by IMF

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Household electricity tariffs hiked by an average of 12%

Good morning, everyone. We have a big macro story and a quieter industry read for you today that both, in their own way, are about where the government and the consumer are putting their money.

The headline is the IMF. The Executive Board signed off on the seventh review on Thursday, unlocking a USD 1.8 bn disbursement that should hit state coffers tomorrow. The broad outlook is stable, but inflation is running hotter than projected, structural reforms are moving slower than preferred, and the government still needs another USD 1.5 bn in divestments before the program wraps in December.

Meanwhile, a debate over gold is heating up. Three years of record gold prices have pulled consumers away from jewelry and toward bullion, coins, and gold funds — a trend the Federation of Egyptian Industries wants to reverse.

BUT FIRST- The fire that took the Energos Winter regasification unit out of service at Damietta Port on Wednesday was the result of a drone strike, the cabinet said in a statement on Thursday, confirming claims circulating in the international press. Preliminary investigations verified the cause of the attack, though no group has claimed responsibility.

The details: The strike directly hit the regasification vessel, while the adjacent storage vessel was disconnected and remains “100% intact,” Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said during his weekly presser (watch, runtime: 1:07:50). Port operations remain unaffected, with 15 ships entering and exiting the harbor normally on the day of the incident, Madbouly added.

The energy fallout: The Energos Winter, which had been pumping 450 mcf / d into the national grid before the incident, is temporarily out of service and is expected to head to Turkey for damage assessment and repairs, a government official was cited as saying. Separately, the government diverted one of four LNG shipments originally scheduled for Damietta this month to Jordan’s Aqaba port. We will draw around 100 mcf / d via the pipeline from Jordan for the next 35 days to compensate for the shortfall, a government official was cited as saying.

More mazut on the way: The government is also hiking its mazut imports by 80% to 28k tons this month to keep power plants running through the summer.

And in diplomacy: Egyptian, US, Qatari, and Turkish mediators will soon meet in Cairo to finalize the framework for a ceasefire in Gaza, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. Under the framework, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza will enter the territory and international forces will be deployed in Gaza ahead of recovery efforts and reconstruction projects. Hamas and the Palestinian side are already on board, having told the mediators that they approve of the roadmap for implementing the second phase of the ceasefire, the source said.

***

ARE YOU MORE OF A LISTENER? Morning Drive is a 10-minute summary of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or driving through the morning rush. And if you like it, tell your friends to tell their friends. They can find us on Apple, Spotify, or wherever they get their podcasts.

***

The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is back — and this year, we’re giving the full day to the one question on every business leader’s mind: What does AI actually mean for your company, your people, and your own job?

Leaders in New York, London, Abu Dhabi, and Singapore are asking the same things, and nobody has built a playbook that works yet. We’re all figuring it out in real time — and for Egypt, the stakes are unusually high.

Egypt could leapfrog a generation on the back of this technology — or watch AI hollow out the industries and jobs we can’t afford to lose. The leaders who get literate early will be the ones who get to decide which road we take.

Every session on stage answers one question: “So, what do I actually do about it?”

Join us on 5 October in Cairo. Seats are limited and attendance is by invitation only.

Request your invitation here.

Pricier summer

The Electricity Ministry hiked household electricity tariffs by an average of 12%, though the lowest consumption bracket will remain unchanged, it said in a statement on Friday. The new structure keeps most residential users well below full cost recovery as the government tries to narrow the power sector’s funding gap without removing support from the lowest-consuming households.

The new price tags per kWh for households:

  • 0-50 kWh: EGP 0.68 (unchanged);
  • 51-100 kWh: EGP 0.87, up from EGP 0.78;
  • 101-200 kWh: EGP 1.06, up from EGP 0.95;
  • 201-350 kWh: EGP 1.74, up from EGP 1.55;
  • 351-650 kWh: EGP 2.18, up from EGP 1.95;
  • 651 kWh–1 MWh: EGP 2.35, up from EGP 2.10;
  • Above 1 MWh: EGP 2.89, up from EGP 2.58.

The bottom line: Across all residential tiers, the government will continue to absorb around EGP 100 bn annually in the gap between volatile fuel-pegged production costs and retail tariffs.

REMEMBER- The increase ends the household tariff freeze extended earlier this year and follows the ministry’s assurance last month that household prices would remain unchanged through the summer. The FY 2026/27 budget set aside EGP 104.2 bn for electricity subsidies, up 39% from the previous FY.

Paying in assets

The government is looking at some 4.2k state-owned properties, land plots, and company stakes to help state bodies clear debts owed to one another, instead of paying in direct funds, five government officials tell EnterpriseAM. The Tax Authority alone aims to clear around EGP 700 bn in unpaid taxes owed by other government agencies through asset swaps, alongside scheduled direct payments, one official says.

The plan includes restructuring six holding companies, covering cotton, food, and the chemicals sector, by settling their debts with assets. The same mechanism will be used to clear unpaid debts for local governorates, municipalities, and the electricity and petroleum sectors, with a comprehensive asset-transfer plan to be finalized by the end of the year, our sources say.

IN CONTEXT- The government wants to bring budget-sector debt down to 78% of GDP in the upcoming FY 2026/27 budget, with a long-term goal of hitting 70% by 2030. A draft financial statement from April indicates that the Finance Ministry plans to more than double the value of total capital injections into indebted state-owned enterprises and agencies for FY 2026/27, raising the value to 125.3 bn from EGP 58.6 bn.

What’s next: Once the debts are cleared and the properties are priced, government entities will be responsible for reinvesting these assets, either directly or through the Sovereign Fund of Egypt. The sovereign fund will then manage them or bring in private-sector partners.

EGX stamp tax goes live

A stamp tax on EGX transactions went live on Wednesday following the publication of the legislative amendments in the Official Gazette. Some firms that were unaware the changes had taken effect are manually recalculating the tax on trades executed since then and will remit the amounts to the Tax Authority this week, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM. The official expects the levy to generate EGP 3 bn in its first year.

The mechanics: The Tax Authority and EGX will establish a recurring collection mechanism through Misr for Central Clearing, Depository, and Registry (MCDR). The tax is set at 0.5 per mille on each side of a listed-securities transaction, falling to 0.25 per mille for same-day trades, while licensed market makers are exempt.

REMEMBER- The switch closes the implementation gap left after the government dropped the long-delayed capital gains tax in favor of a simpler transaction levy. The collection mechanism had been under discussion with MCDR before the package secured final House approval in June.

Goodbye, fertilizer duty

The Investment Ministry has reportedly scrapped the 10% export duty on nitrogen fertilizers over the weekend, following a 39% drop in export prices to around USD 550 per ton from nearly USD 900 in April and a sharp slowdown in shipments over the past two months.

IN CONTEXT- The levy was introduced as a USD 90-per-ton fee in May, before being replaced by a charge equivalent to 10% of the shipment’s export value at the end of June. Its removal cuts the cost of exporting by around USD 55 per ton at current prices. Despite the more recent slowdown, nitrogen-fertilizer exports still rose 39.7% y-o-y to USD 1.4 bn in 1H 2026 following the earlier price surge, according to the report.

ALSO- The recent strike on the Energos Winter regasification vessel docking at Damietta’s port will not disrupt natural gas flows to fertilizer factories, Chemicals and Fertilizers Export Council Chairman Khaled Abu Al Makarem told Al Arabiya. While domestic gas pricing has remained static recently, he signaled that we could see adjustments to the pricing structure as early as next week.

Zafarana winds are picking up

Alcazar Energy’s Zafarana wind project has moved to the execution phase with a 407 MW power purchase agreement (PPA), after the Cabinet signed off on the PPA and the necessary land-usufruct agreements for the UAE-based developer, according to a Cabinet statement. The project will be developed under a build-own-operate (BOO) model, with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) buying the power and the New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) providing the land.

The numbers: The Cabinet did not disclose an investment ticket or construction timeline for the project. It’s unclear whether the announced 407 MW capacity is the target for the project or the first phase of many. Alcazar currently lists its Zafarana development at 500 MW. Meanwhile, its November 2024 MoU with EETC and NREA covered a broader 2 GW onshore wind project. The company later announced plans for a wider USD 2.5 bn, 3.1 GW wind and solar complex at the same site.

PSA-

WEATHER- Take shelter from the extremely hot weather in Cairo today, with a high of 40°C and a low of 27°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s more tolerable in Alexandria, with a high of 33°C and a low of 24°C.

The big story abroad

No single story is dominating international headlines this morning — among those receiving top billing:

#1- Most of the 60k North African migrants who illegally crossed into Spain’s Ceuta have made their way back to Morocco, citing severe hunger, lack of shelter, and hostility from local authorities and residents that made remaining unbearable.

#2- FIFA President Gianni Infantino’s future with the football governing body could be in trouble after he pulled the plug on a plan to create a commercial entity to take over the World Cup and sell a stake to investors. The proposal was met with heavy criticism from fans, lawmakers, and other football governing bodies and accusations of selling out.

#3- The aftermath of the selloff: Following a severe collapse in South Korea’s stock market, the benchmark Kospi index fell around 40% from its June peak due to a semiconductor selloff and volatile single-stock leveraged ETFs, South Korean retail investors are directing their anger at President Lee Jae-myung and financial regulators. Many investors are vowing to exit the market after incurring massive losses.

Somabay continues its commitment to international sport by hosting the Egypt International Teen Championship from 25–27 September 2026.

Registration is now open for the US Kids Golf International Teen Series event, which will welcome leading junior golfers aged 13–18 from Egypt and overseas to compete at the award-winning Somabay Golf Course.

2

The Big Story Today

IMF board signs off on seventh review, clearing USD 1.8 bn disbursement

A fresh USD 1.8 bn IMF tranche lands tomorrow, after the Executive Board signed off on the seventh review of the country’s USD 8 bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the second review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), the Fund said in a statement on Thursday. The approval unlocks immediate access to the tranche, which should hit state coffers tomorrow, IMF Mission Chief Amine Mati confirmed during a virtual press conference attended by EnterpriseAM.

The breakdown: The disbursement includes USD 1.5 bn under the EFF and USD 272 mn under the RSF, bumping the country’s total drawings across both programs to roughly USD 7.3 bn.

The macroeconomic fallout from the regional war has remained “relatively contained,” according to the statement. The IMF credits this resilience to the government’s decisive policy actions, specifically maintaining a flexible exchange rate, adjusting fuel prices, and curbing public spending. Real GDP grew 5% in 3Q FY 2025/26, bringing 9M growth to 5.2%. Full-year growth is projected to come in at 4.6%, only slightly below earlier projections.

Remittances and hedging offset the energy squeeze: Surging oil and gas prices pushed the current account deficit to an estimated 4.5% of GDP in FY 2025/26. However, this deterioration was largely offset by resilient tourism receipts, state oil hedging contracts, and long-term gas supply agreements. A record surge in remittances, which hit nearly USD 4 bn in April alone in a monthly record, also helped plug the gap. Also, Suez Canal revenues stabilized at around USD 380 mn a month, though well below the roughly USD 890 mn recorded before the disruptions in Red Sea shipping, Mati said.

The float worked: Egypt entered the conflict with around USD 69 bn in reserves. Allowing the EGP to move freely helped absorb external shocks; the currency depreciated by up to 17% during periods of capital outflows before recovering as inflows returned, Mati said.

Fiscal targets reached: Egypt outperformed its primary surplus and tax revenue targets by the end of March, driving gross financing needs down by around five percentage points of GDP in FY2025/26. The IMF expects the state’s primary surplus to rise from 4.8% of GDP last FY to 5% this year on the back of stronger revenue mobilization and continued tax reforms.

The numbers behind the headline

The budget deficit is narrowing: The IMF’s assessment comes as Finance Ministry data shows the budget deficit narrowing to 5.3% of GDP in the first 11 months of FY 2025/26, down from 6.5% a year earlier, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly fiscal report (pdf). A 27.5% jump in tax revenues helped offset an EGP 2.1 tn interest bill, which ate up over half of all government spending. The primary surplus surged 70% y-o-y to EGP 985.1 bn (4.6% of GDP), padded by EGP 166.8 bn in exceptional proceeds from the Alam El Roum development project.

Inflation remains the primary macro hurdle: Headline inflation cooled to 14.3% in June after peaking at 15.2% in March, but the IMF expects it to average 16.7% in 2H 2026 as higher energy prices and a weaker EGP ripple through the economy. The IMF now expects inflation to return to the CBE’s target range around one year later than previously projected, Mati said.

Assessments continue

Progress in structural reforms, particularly reducing the state’s role in the economy, has been “uneven,” while efforts to create greater space for private sector investment “have progressed more slowly than anticipated and need to be accelerated,” according to the statement.

More state-asset sales needed: Egypt still needs to complete another USD 1.5 bn in divestments before the IMF program concludes in December, with Banque du Caire’s planned IPO and further state stake sales among the transactions expected to contribute to the target, Mati said.

The Fund is also assessing the implications of Egypt’s newly approved Future of Egypt Authority law — which places the authority under the direct oversight of the presidency — to ensure it aligns with the State Ownership Policy and preserves a level playing field for the private sector, Mati said.

The IMF’s mandate: Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair Nigel Clarke called for “more decisive implementation” of structural reforms to drive private sector-led growth. He also called for faster implementation of the State Ownership Policy, accelerated divestment, and stronger governance of state-owned enterprises to improve competitive neutrality.

Regional tensions remain the biggest downside risk: The IMF sees growth cooling slightly to 4.4% in FY 2026/27 as the delayed shocks of regional conflict drag on investment. The math is tight: Every USD 10 spike in global oil prices widens the fiscal deficit by 0.3% of GDP and the current account deficit by up to 0.5%. To mitigate this, the Fund expects Egypt to resume its automatic fuel pricing mechanism.

What’s next for the IMF program? Talks are zeroing in on the final review this December. There is still roughly USD 1.5 bn on the table under the EFF and USD 800 mn under the RSF, Mati said. While the Fund remains open to a successor arrangement or advisory support post-2026, no formal talks on a new program have materialized yet, he added. Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Hussein Eissa has indicated that the government aims to finalize its post-IMF economic program by September, aligning with earlier signals that the state does not intend to pursue a successor program.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

3

Investment Watch

Egypt’s gold industry is split on whether jewelry demand needs saving at all

Three years of record gold prices and economic uncertainty have shifted demand away from jewelry and toward bullion, coins, and regulated investment funds. The Gold and Precious Metals Division of the Federation of Egyptian Industries (FEI), headed by Ehab Wassef, is preparing to launch an initiative to redirect growth toward value-added jewelry manufacturing, but industry sources disagree on whether it’s needed.

The initiative will support factories, workshops, and employment as part of the FEI’s strategy through 2029. Wassef says the sector’s future depends on “the industry’s ability to produce jewelry with quality and designs that compete in global markets,” with manufacturing upgrades, product development, SME support, and workforce training forming the core of that strategy.

The data shows how far the shift has gone: The number of investors in gold and silver funds reached 329k at the end of June 2026, up 14% q-o-q, with assets under management at EGP 9.35 bn, according to Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) data. Retail investors account for 71% of the total, with more than 70% of them aged between 20 and 40. Gold funds account for almost all of the segment, with 306.5k investors holding EGP 9.2 bn across seven funds, while Egypt’s first two silver funds, launched in 2Q 2026, have already attracted 22.3k investors. Precious metals funds are now the fastest-growing segment of Egypt’s EGP 411 bn mutual fund industry, expanding 30% q-o-q in 1Q 2026 while delivering the sector’s strongest average return at 20.4%.

The structural shift runs deeper than higher gold prices. Hany Milad, head of the Gold and Jewelry Division at the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce (FEDCOC), says the industry lacks hard data measuring exactly how much demand has migrated from jewelry to bullion, but the direction is clear. “Bullion, in the form we see today, simply did not exist five years ago. Successive increases in gold prices have encouraged this shift,” he says.

An entirely new class of buyer has entered the market as well, Milad says. “A new segment of customers has emerged that entered the gold market to hedge and preserve value, not to buy jewelry for adornment, as used to be common,” he says. Some savers “preferred to convert their savings from bank deposits or even from real estate investment into gold,” he adds. Even so, he rejects the idea that jewelry demand has collapsed. “There are still those who buy bridal sets (shabka) and jewelry, albeit fewer in number,” he says.

Milad places responsibility for recovery on the manufacturer, not the market conditions. “The ball is in their court, and they have to determine the tools that can restore balance to the market,” he says. His priority is international, rather than local: “The idea is not to establish factories outside Egypt, but to manufacture products locally and export them, so that the national industry benefits.” He frames the shift as a global phenomenon rather than a local failure: “We are not facing an internal defect or a crisis that can be treated with local measures only, but rather global economic conditions that have made gold a tool for hedging and preserving value.”

But some argue that the premise behind the FEI initiative is already outdated. Mamdouh Abdallah, board member of the FEI’s Gold Division and chairman of Kirmena Jewelry, argues that jewelry demand has already rebounded. “We don’t need anything. On the contrary, we currently have an unusual demand for jewelry,” he says.

Lighter products are driving sales: Abdallah attributes the recovery to manufacturers redirecting production toward the domestic market rather than exports and redesigning products to make them more affordable. Lighter-weight products have played a key role. “What used to weigh 10 grams now weighs around 5 grams,” he says, allowing consumers to buy designs comparable to European jewelry “but with Egyptian manufacturing costs.”

OUR TAKE- Both perspectives are correctly describing a market in transition. Milad has identified the structural shift: a new class of buyer has entered the gold market for financial reasons, rather than ornamental; that buyer is unlikely to turn to jewelry like the FEI wants. Abdallah is also right: manufacturers who have adapted to lighter products with competitive pricing are also finding demand. The FEI initiative will likely work best for those manufacturers who haven’t yet adapted, rather than trying to entice a buyer focused on investment, not adornment.

4

A MESSAGE FROM VISA

Science labs, upcycled fashion, and restored Cairo homes: meet She’s Next Egypt winners for 2026

Visa’s She’s Next Egypt has named its 2026 winners from a field of nine finalists — and the top three say a lot about where women-led businesses are building. Run for the first time in partnership with CIB Business Banking and Shark Tank Egypt, the program gives women entrepreneurs access to grants, mentorship, and training as they work to grow their businesses. Since 2020, Visa has invested more than USD 3.8 mn through 380+ grants, supporting over 8.5k women entrepreneurs worldwide.

First place went to Khadija Elbedweihy, founder of PraxiLabs. Her business builds 3D virtual science labs that give students across the Middle East and Africa hands-on access to experiments they might not otherwise be able to run.

Yara Yassin, founder of Up-Fuse, came in second. Up-Fuse turns discarded plastic bags, tires, and bottles into fashion accessories, while creating jobs for artisanal women across Cairo.

Amira Selim, founder of Kennah rounded out the podium in third place. Kennah operates adaptive-reuse serviced residences that restore Cairo’s older buildings for modern living.

The runway continues after the recognition. All three winners will receive a year of mentorship from industry leaders — giving them room to turn their businesses into stronger operations, sharper partnerships, and wider customer reach.

5

Also on our Radar

Oil Ministry targets 160 new oil and gas wells with USD 7.2 bn in foreign investment

The Oil Ministry is targeting 160 oil and gas wells this fiscal year, backed by at least USD 7.2 bn in planned investment from foreign partners, with some 70% of the program earmarked for development wells to raise output from existing fields, Al Arabiya reports, citing an unnamed government official. The remaining 30% will be allocated to exploration.

Development drilling will focus on the Nile Delta, the Western Desert, the Gulf of Suez, and parts of the deepwater Mediterranean, while West Mediterranean concessions will anchor the exploration push. The ministry is targeting annual increases of 15% in oil production and 12% in gas output, beyond offsetting the natural decline at mature fields.

IN CONTEXT- The program is broader than the 101 exploration wells planned for calendar 2026, with the development-heavy split reflecting the more immediate push to restore domestic output and curb energy imports. The government has also cleared its arrears to foreign oil companies and introduced regular monthly payments to maintain foreign partners’ investment commitments.

Beyond fill-and-finish

Two new facilities worth a combined USD 116.6 mn are pushing the country’s pharma and diagnostics sector further into advanced manufacturing. Egyptian International Pharma Industries Company (Eipico) launched its new USD 100 mn Eipico 3 biologicals and biosimilar plant in 10th of Ramadan, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). Spectrum Diagnostics also launched a USD 16.55 mn rapid-testing facility, according to a statement from the Investment Ministry.

Eipico says the new plant is the first in Egypt and the Middle East to carry out the full production cycle for biologics and biosimilars, from genetically modified cells to finished products, across oncology, blood disorders, hormonal conditions, and rheumatology. The facility is expected to focus on fill-and-finish operations in 2H 2026 before shifting to full local manufacturing in 2H 2027, with Eipico targeting EGP 450 mn in revenue during its first 12 months and EGP 1-1.5 bn annually at full capacity, according to a CI Capital note seen by EnterpriseAM.

SOUND SMART- Biologicals are medicines, like vaccines or insulin, made from living sources like animal cells, bacteria, yeast, or plants. Biosimilars are similar versions of the brand-name biologicals, produced as a cheaper generic alternative.

Spectrum’s facility will manufacture rapid diagnostic tests and laboratory equipment, creating a local supply chain for products that have largely been imported. The two project launches add momentum to Egypt’s wider push to localize higher-value pharma manufacturing, alongside projects such as Arab API’s USD 165 mn raw-materials plant.

Scatec’s grid link awarded

Three firms and one consortium have won the tender to build a 500 kV power transmission line connecting Norwegian developer Scatec’s 900 MW wind project to the national grid, at a cost of EGP 13 bn (USD 253.4 mn), according to an unnamed government official.

The winning bidders: Kuwait’s Kharafi National, Egyptian firms Wadi El Nil and El Gohary, and a consortium of Zaki Elsewedy and Arab African Construction. Construction is expected to take about a year once work begins, with the state-owned Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) now negotiating contract terms ahead of board approval and signing, targeted for September.

Who’s paying: The Finance Ministry is financing the project directly under its strategic-projects budget line, rather than through EETC’s balance sheet or private capital.

This marks the second major Gulf of Suez transmission project announced in July. We reported last week that an Intelligent Globe Construction-led consortium had signed a separate EGP 20 bn agreement to build a 500 kV line linking Gulf of Suez renewables more broadly to the Hawamdeya substation south of Giza.

Why this matters: Egypt’s grid buildout is running behind its generation buildout. Former Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib previously said Egypt needs roughly USD 45 bn in distribution infrastructure to integrate the new solar and wind capacity coming online, against the EGP 26.3 bn EETC actually spent on grid upgrades last fiscal year, even with the EU’s EUR 690 mn grid financing package now helping close that gap.

6

PLANET FINANCE

Central banks bought less gold in 1Q than initially estimated -WGC

Central banks recorded their lowest 1Q gold net purchases in over 15 years, after an initial estimate of 244 tonnes of purchases was revised down to a mere 57 tonnes, according to a World Gold Council (WGC) report picked up by the Financial Times.

The gap: The revision occurred after gold previously thought to be flowing to official channels was reclassified into the over-the-counter (OTC) category. Central bank disclosures on gold purchases only take place on a voluntary basis, and purchasing tracking is becoming increasingly opaque, especially when it comes to China — a big buyer that only discloses a portion of purchases.

The bigger picture: The new stat puts purchases at their lowest for a 1Q period in over 15 years, the report said. Purchases picked up in 2Q to reach 289 tonnes, marking a 5x increase compared to the first quarter, largely on the back of purchases by China and Poland. However, overall central bank demand was at its lowest 1H stat since 2022.

There’s also a geopolitical element: Gold purchasing reporting also became complicated following US sanctions on Russia in 2022, which drove developing economies to diversify away from the greenback, leading institutions to disclose far less to the IMF.

Major sovereign buyers now reveal only a fraction of their transactions, forcing analysts into a “game of cat-and-mouse” to trace actual physical flows, said John Reade, market strategist at the WGC.

Why Middle East capital is in the mix: Following regional conflict disruptions, several Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds unloaded bullion reserves to offset declines in oil and gas revenue, according to Reade. Elsewhere, official institutions in Turkey, Russia, and Azerbaijan were net sellers during 1H.

Why the pullback: Central banks act as the gold market’s buyer of last resort, accounting for up to a third of global 2Q demand. When prices pull back, official sector buying typically absorbs excess supply, creating a hard floor under bullion. When its gold purchasing activity slows, this price floor supporting the global gold market starts cracking. This comes at a time when gold prices have already fallen by around 30% from January peaks.

What else weighs on the demand: Although 1H gold demand went up 2% y-o-y to 2.5k tonnes, momentum was weighed down by gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) liquidations, which saw outflows of 45 tonnes (USD 4bn) in 2Q alone.

EGX30

53,442

-0.4% (YTD: +27.8%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 51.08

Sell 51.22

USD (CIB)

Buy 51.05

Sell 51.15

Interest rates (CBE)

19.00% deposit

20.00% lending

Tadawul

10,590

+0.4% (YTD: +0.9%)

ADX

9,915

+0.4% (YTD: -0.8%)

DFM

5,796

+0.1% (YTD: -4.2%)

S&P 500

7,490

+0.7% (YTD: +9.4%)

FTSE 100

10,868

-0.3% (YTD: +9.4%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,358

+0.2% (YTD: +9.7%)

Brent crude

USD 87.93

+1.2%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.75

-0.4%

Gold

USD 4,107

-1.3%

BTC

USD 62,905

-0.1% (YTD: -28.2%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,087

+0.1% (YTD: +9.5%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

149.83

0.0% (YTD: -1.4%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

15.99

-6.4% (YTD: +7.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.4% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 11.9 bn (25.5% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 27.8% YTD.

In the green: AMOC (+7.0%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (+2.4%), and ADIB (+1.4%).

In the red: Telecom Egypt (-3.0%), Beltone Holding (-2.6%), and Heliopolis Housing (-2.5%).


AUGUST

19 August (Wednesday): Connected Banking Summit, Fairmont Nile City Hotel Cairo.

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday) El Alamein International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

10-12 September (Thursday-Saturday): Egyptian Entrepreneurship Sector Diagnostics Report Summit, El Gouna.

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

28-29 September (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Mining Forum, St. Regis Hotel New Capital.

30 September - October 3 (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

OCTOBER

5 October (Monday): The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

10-11 October (Saturday-Sunday): Egypt Women’s Health Summit (EWHS), Cairo Marriott Hotel.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): IEX Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

NOVEMBER

6-8 November (Friday-Sunday) : Global Entrepreneurship Festival, JW Marriott Hotel, New Cairo.

8-11 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT Forum.

DECEMBER

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Food Africa, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-August: IMF Board expected to decide on the seventh review of the loan program.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

4Q 2026: Banque du Caire IPO.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Agri Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

Now Playing
Now Playing
00:00
00:00