Urban inflation eased to 13.9% in September, even as monthly prices continue to pick up

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

S&P affirmed Egypt’s sovereign credit at B/B and Fitch Ratings at B, both with a stable outlook

Good morning, friends, and welcome back from the long weekend. Today’s issue gives us some genuine bright spots to carry into the week: inflation cooled in September, a private equity exclusive, and a new strategic partnership with South Korea.

Leading today’s issue: Annual urban inflation eased to 13.9% in September, its lowest rate since February, thanks to a favorable base effect, though monthly prices rose 1.3%, the fastest increase since May. The relief is real for now, but analysts expect a spike in the coming months. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets next on 29 October with this data as the latest reading.

And we’ve got an exclusive — private equity fund manager Ezdehar has acquired local fashion retailer Consolidated Group and is folding it into DalyDress. We sat down with Ezdehar Founder and Managing Director Emad Barsoum to talk about the transaction, Ezdehar’s Fund III and Fund II, how Fund I turned EGP growth into USD returns, and why the EGX is back on the table as an exit, with as many as three of its companies lined up as possible IPO candidates.

MEANWHILE- President Sisi is wrapping up an Asia tour that delivered a strategic partnership upgrade with South Korea, a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement launch, and MoUs covering shipbuilding, clean energy, and hydrogen-powered trams for the New Administrative Capital. From Seoul, he went to Malaysia, and he’s now in Indonesia for the final stop.

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Our credit rating affirmed

S&P Global Ratings affirmed Egypt’s sovereign credit at B/B and Fitch Ratings set it at B, both with a stable outlook, according to S&P’s recent rating update (pdf) and Fitch’s rating action commentary. Both agencies credited the flexible exchange rate, record reserves, and multilateral support for their assessments. S&P noted foreign portfolio outflows reached USD 9.5 bn and the EGP depreciated up to 15% before stabilizing; Fitch said outflows exceeded USD 6 bn and the currency lost over 14% before recovering. On reserves, S&P cited international reserve assets of USD 54.5 bn, while Fitch flagged gross international reserves of USD 54.4 bn (the CBE’s broader net international reserves reached USD 57.35 bn in September).

The main fiscal constraint remains debt interest costs, though both project a gradual decline. S&P sees interest-to-revenue at 68% in FY 2025/26, easing to 60% in FY 2026/27 and 53% in FY 2027/28. Fitch expects a fall from 63% in FY 2025/26 to 52% in FY 2027/28.

The IMF program concludes in December; the eighth and final review unlocks the last USD 1.7 bn tranche. Neither agency expects a successor: S&P says a new IMF-supported program appears unlikely; Fitch sees no new disbursing program immediately afterward.

On the external position, S&P projects the current account deficit at 5.1% of GDP in FY 2025/26 and 5.0% in FY 2026/27; Fitch forecasts 5.1% in FY 2025/26 narrowing to below 3.5% by FY 2027/28. Both see high energy import bills weighing on the balance, partly offset by tourism, Suez Canal revenue, and remittances.

On inflation, S&P expects 12.9% in FY 2026/27, averaging 12% across the next two fiscal years before declining to 9% by FY 2028/29. Fitch projects inflation rising from 11.6% in FY 2025/26 to 12.3% in FY 2026/27, then falling below 10% in FY 2027/28. S&P sees the CBE keeping rates on hold, with persistent inflation limiting scope for monetary easing; Fitch expects the current policy mix, including positive real interest rates, to remain in place.

A big first bite

Retail investors put in orders for 29.9 mn of the 48 mn shares on offer (62%) on the first day of MNT Tech Holding for Financial Investments’ public tranche, Al Borsa reports, citing EGX order screens. That puts retail orders at roughly EGP 733 mn at the EGP 24.5 offer price, by our math. The 272-mn-share private tranche closes on 13 October, with no demand figures available yet.

REFRESHER- MNT priced the 320 mn secondary shares on offer (20% of the company) at EGP 24.5 apiece in a Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) approved prospectus published Tuesday, valuing the company at EGP 39.2 bn and the base offering at EGP 7.84 bn. Institutional and high-net-worth investors have until 13 October to subscribe, and the retail book closes 15 October. The private tranche can be upsized to take the total to 400 mn shares (25% of the company), subject to FRA approval. CIB has committed up to EGP 2 bn as a cornerstone investor, and London-based Redwheel has signed on for about USD 20 mn. Founder and CEO Mounir Nakhla has said he expects trading to start on 20 October.

Room to grow

German tourism giant TUI Group is expanding its joint venture with Egyptian partner Travco, picking up a 600k sqm plot in Marsa Alam on the Red Sea coast for a hotel and tourism investment worth USD 69 mn, potentially rising to USD 85 mn in the first phase, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. The TUI-Travco JV will build three five-star hotels on the plot, adding 1.2k rooms under Travco’s Jaz Hotel Group, with construction costing a further USD 120-150 mn, Al Arabiya reports, citing unnamed sources.

More on the JV: The two companies are deepening a relationship that already includes shared hotel ownership, TUI’s 50% stake in Travco’s hotel portfolio, and the 50/50 Travco Travel joint venture. Travco Chairman Hamed El Chiaty also owns a 3.4% stake in TUI. The expansion pushes Travco’s Marsa Alam footprint to 14 hotels, adding to TUI’s existing presence in the area — TUI BLUE Samaya, which opened in Coraya Bay in May 2025.

IN CONTEXT- Travco now operates 68+ hotels and 18.9k rooms across Egypt, the UAE, Zanzibar, Tunisia, Greece, Morocco, and the Maldives, plus 28 Nile cruise ships, according to its website. In 2023, the group went on an EGP 3.5 bn acquisition spree that added two Pyramids-area hotels and six cruise ships. Last year, the group had another USD 162 mn wave of Jaz openings across Greater Cairo, the Red Sea, and the North Coast.

Data point

USD 57.35 bn — that’s where our net international reserves stood at the end of September, according to provisional Central Bank of Egypt data. That’s another record high, but the gain was just USD 133.6 mn from August’s USD 57.21 bn. It’s the fourth straight month where the increase has shrunk, after rises of USD 1.94 bn in June, USD 1.22 bn in July, and USD 920.6 mn in August.

The gas crunch gave Egypt every reason to speed up its energy transition, and the question now is who builds it and who pays for it.

Power Trip, our four-part signature series, turns this week to the transition and the private developers now building much of Egypt’s new power.

Issue II looks at how the deals behind these projects work, who is lending to them, and why the country is building a nuclear plant at El Dabaa alongside its solar and wind farms. We also look at whether the regional crisis has finally pushed industry toward renewables, and at the factories Egypt is counting on to build its own panels, batteries, and turbines.

Coming straight to your inbox on Wednesday, 14 October.

PSA-

WEATHER- Cairo is holding steady today, with a high of 30°C and a low of 20°C — more of the same settled autumn weather, according to our favorite weather app. Expect some morning fog and winds picking up through the day that could stir up some dust.

It’s the same story in Alexandria, with a high of 27°C and a low of 20°C.

The big story abroad

Chipmaking giant Nvidia is weighing a takeover of, or a bigger stake in, US AI startup Reflection AI, which builds open-weight models. Discussions are in their early stages and could result in an acqui-hire, among other options, wherein Nvidia would license technology and hire staff without fully acquiring the company, bypassing potential regulatory delays. Nvidia has already invested USD 800 mn in Reflection AI.

Russia has agreed to release 500k tons of diesel into international markets, without specifying a timeline, partially lifting its ban on diesel exports following an agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. Effective Saturday, oil companies in Russia will negotiate export contracts with foreign buyers in coordination with the government.

Indian security forces locked down parts of Delhi yesterday to block a planned rally demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. Thousands of security personnel were deployed across the capital, and more than 2k protesters were detained, including the founder of the Cockroach youth movement that organized the demonstration. Protesters accuse Kumar of overseeing voter list revisions that critics contend unfairly favor Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

Urban inflation eased to 13.9% in September, even as monthly prices continue to pick up

Annual urban inflation eased for a second straight month to 13.9% in September, down from 14.5% in August and its lowest level since February, according to CAPMAS data (pdf). Monthly prices rose 1.3%, the fastest pace since May, after falling 0.4% in June and barely moving in July and August. However, the annual relief was driven largely by a favorable base effect: prices had jumped 1.8% m-o-m in September 2025, so this year’s smaller rise was enough to pull the annual rate down.

Food prices are up: Food and beverage costs rose 2.8% m-o-m, ending three consecutive months of declines. That pushed annual food inflation up to 7.2% from 6.3%. Most of the pressure came from fresh vegetables, which spiked 14.7% in a single month. Meat and poultry rose 2.2%, while bread and cereals ticked down slightly by 0.3%.

Housing costs cooled on an annual basis: Annual inflation for housing and utilities dropped to 35.2% from August’s 42.8%, mainly because a sharp spike from September 2025 dropped out of the 12-month calculation. Housing remains the fastest-growing spending category y-o-y, even though monthly housing costs rose just 0.6%. Transportation (+24.3%), education (+18.7%), and home furnishings (+17.4%) were the other major annual drivers.

What the analysts expected: HC Securities’ Heba Monir had forecast a 1.3% monthly rise in September, exactly what Capmas reported, though the drivers were different. She had expected seasonal rent adjustments and back-to-school spending to push prices up. Instead, education prices were flat, actual rents rose 0.9%, and a 14.7% m-o-m surge in vegetables drove most of the increase. Looking ahead, Monir sees a steeper 2.1% monthly jump in October, driven by an anticipated c. 10% increase in fuel prices as the government cuts subsidies to meet fiscal targets. Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley expected a sharper slowdown in September to 13.2%, while EFG Hermes had flagged a September slowdown as base effects turned favorable.

What it means for the CBE

Slower headline inflation takes some pressure off the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to raise interest rates. It also widens the real-rate cushion protecting the carry trade. Ahly Pharos’ Hany Genena had put that buffer at 5.5 ppt in September, measuring the 20.0% top of the CBE’s corridor against 14.5% inflation. With September inflation easing to 13.9%, that cushion expands to roughly 6.1 ppt. EFG Hermes’ Mohamed Abu Basha has previously argued that a buffer around 500 bps is more than enough to insulate local debt from the US Federal Reserve tightening, noting that recent outflows were driven by geopolitics rather than US rates. Still, the underlying monthly rebound and the cost pressures lurking in the coming months point in the opposite direction.

The base effect is running out of steam. Last year, monthly urban prices rose 1.8% in October, then 0.3% in November and 0.2% in December. Any monthly increase above those low bars will pull the annual rate straight back up. Genena has flagged a possible 4Q spike into the 16-16.5% range, while Deutsche Bank expects inflation to hover around 15-16% through the rest of the year.

The CBE has already made room: The bank kept rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting in September and dropped its explicit reference to maintaining a “positive real interest-rate margin,” opting instead to “deploy all available policy tools.” The CBE projects inflation to average 16.6% in FY 2026/27 and return to its 7% (±2 ppt) target by 2H 2027.

What’s next: The Monetary Policy Committee meets next on 29 October, almost two weeks before Capmas publishes October’s figures. That leaves September’s reading as the latest official data on the table when the committee decides on rates. The CBE’s final policy meeting of the year is scheduled for 17 December.

Ezdehar eyes USD 200 mn Fund III, with EGX exits back in play

EXCLUSIVE- Private equity fund manager Ezdehar has acquired local fashion retailer Consolidated Group and is folding it into DalyDress, Ezdehar Founder and Managing Director Emad Barsoum (LinkedIn) tells EnterpriseAM. The goal is to build a local retail group with over 100 stores here at home, he tells us. The Egyptian Competition Authority has cleared the buyout, and Ezdehar expects to announce it formally within the next couple of weeks. Consolidated Group operates fashion brands OR, Daniel Hechter, MaxMara, Converse, Outlet Zone, Calliope, and O’Zone. The size of the transaction remains under wraps.

The merged group could eventually make its way to the EGX, Barsoum says, pointing to it and Zahran Market, another Ezdehar holding, as potential IPO candidates now that the bourse is back in play as a serious exit route. Zahran, he says, could be ready for a listing in a couple of years.

We spoke with Barsoum about the transaction, Ezdehar’s Fund III and Fund II, how Fund I turned EGP growth into USD returns, why the EGX is back on the table as an exit, and why local institutions have largely been absent from the space. Below are edited excerpts from our conversation:

EnterpriseAM: Fund II’s investment period ends this year. Where does it stand, and where does Consolidated Group fit in?

Emad Barsoum: We’ve deployed all the money. We’re finalizing the conditions precedent on the last two transactions, so by October or November, Fund II will be fully deployed. One transaction is in the chemicals sector: one of Egypt's top companies, an exporter, with sizable revenue and EBITDA. The other is Consolidated Group, an add-on to DalyDress.

I think it’s the first time a local retail group is becoming a real group that combines different brands. That’s the value a private equity firm adds: creating groups out of small family businesses. DalyDress was a family business, Consolidated was a family business, and now we’re building an Egyptian group with multiple brands that people can be proud of. We found a great group CEO a few months ago, and we plan to grow in Egypt, expand internationally, and open online stores that target consumers outside Egypt.

EnterpriseAM: Last year, you said Egypt doesn’t have an institutional player that owns several local brands. Is that what you’re looking to build?

EB: Yes. Consolidated Group is Fund II, but there’s a lot more to be done there, and it’s part of the Fund III strategy. Family businesses suffer from many weaknesses: cashmanagement, access to banking, but most of all, access to talent. No international CEO or CFO will be excited by a company that makes EGP 50 mn in revenue, and their salary would be a big hit to the P&L. Scale attracts high calibers, and high calibers grow it further. Egypt’s fragmentation is a big weakness. We need bigger groups that have the muscle to become champions.

The other part is exports. Counting on imported raw materials and selling in EGP is a formula that has proven very weak over the past few years. In Fund III, the key is making sure the USD returns are there, either through exports as a hedge or through pricing power. Sectors come second.

EnterpriseAM: Fund III will raise in USD. What size and geography are you targeting, and when do you go to market?

EB: One of the major decisions we made is to keep focusing on Egypt. Unlike many of our peers, we don’t think the wider region is very attractive. Most of the countries around Egypt aren’t stable, and Morocco and Tunisia are crowded with private equity firms. It’s the typical definition of a red ocean. Egypt is still untapped, and I think we have 10 more years of growth here. So the fund will be in the range of USD 200 mn. I don’t think Egypt can handle much bigger funds at this stage.

We haven’t officially started fundraising. We want to bring Fund I to a good close and Fund II to the end of its investment period first, then start in 1Q or 2Q 2027. Most of the institutions we work with have allocations for Egypt and have given us positive signals. Fund II was USD 175 mn, so going to around USD 200 mn isn’t a significant change. I think the first close will be around mid-2027, and the final close by early 2028 at the latest.

We’ll most probably keep the typical five-year investment period and 10-year fund life, though it’s a debate we’re having. Egypt isn’t a super-efficient market where two- to four-year holds are feasible, and holding periods might need to be longer.

EnterpriseAM: Fund I raised USD and deployed before the EGP lost most of its value. Where do the exits stand, and how does that still add up to a USD return?

EB: We sold AluNile a few months ago and Eagle Chemicals just recently. We have two companies left, Rich Food and Al Tayseer Hospital. Rich Food has several interested bidders, Al Tayseer is underway, and we intend to exit both within the next three to six months. We’ve already returned more to investors than the money we called — our DPI is above 1 — so it’s definitely going to be a return even in USD.

We were shocked by the amount of devaluation, like everyone. It’s been a miserable few years, from devaluations to regional conflicts to supply-chain disruptions. Three things got us through. First, exporters: companies with a lot of USD revenue were shielded. Second, pricing power: some companies can pass inflation and devaluation through to prices easily. Third, growth. Al Tayseer was one hospital when we came in, and today it’s two.

EnterpriseAM: Gourmet listed in February, and MNT is IPO-ing now. Is an EGX listing a realistic exit for you?

EB: It’s looking more and more like a good option. It wasn’t the case six months ago, and it wasn’t the case for the past five years. Hats off to our friends at B Investments for the Gourmet IPO. It was courageous and successful, and we need more of that. A few months ago, the feedback from investment banks was very hesitant because of the trauma of past years.

We might IPO one of the two remaining Fund I companies next year, one where we own about 25%. We’d sell our portion, and the original owners might sell down a bit so it’s a good-sized offering. When we raised Funds I and II, we spoke lightly of an EGX IPO. Today it’s a lot more serious. The DalyDress group would be sizable enough, and Zahran Market, which is reaching a good size with good profitability, could IPO in a couple of years.

But the EGX needs more depth. Daily trading is low, the number of listed companies is low, and many companies float only 10-25% of their shares. There need to be more listings and bigger stakes to create liquidity and bring in more investors.

EnterpriseAM: Outside the bourse, who’s buying mid-market Egyptian assets — and has the valuation gap you talked about last year closed?

EB: Most exits today are to other private equity funds, many of them regional or African, and most of them funded by DFIs. The gap is still there. A PE player doing a business plan today factors in all the trauma of the past 10 years: inflation spikes, rate hikes, regional conflict, the FX. Moving the FX closer to a market rate was a great step, but Egypt’s FX problem isn’t solved. We don’t export enough to pay for the food and energy we import. It went down to 46-47, now it’s jumping again to 52, and in a couple of years it’s going to be 55 or 60 because of this imbalance.

EnterpriseAM: With one-year T-bills clearing around 25.5%, can PE funds compete?

EB: Today, you can put your money in treasuries and make 25% at zero risk, so the formula isn’t conducive. What we really need is a large fund of funds that pulls money from local banks, ins. companies, and pension funds — something like EGP 10-50 bn to create the market. When we go fundraising, the first question we’re asked is who the local LPs are. If local institutions don’t invest, why should anyone else? I thought that was the original idea behind the sovereign fund, but I haven’t seen it yet. We did it in Fund II with a small pocket through Avanz Capital, a fund-of-funds vehicle backed by local banks. It’s a very small step, and it needs to be multiplied by 10 or 100.

EnterpriseAM: You went for control in Fund II. Do you still insist on that?

EB: Today I’d adjust my statement: the key is either a great management team, or control so you can bring one in. Great management teams are rare. We have a minority in Yes-Pac because the majority owners, two brothers, are super dynamic and very bright. In other cases, majority is better. Zahran is flying today, and we’ve expanded in Cairo. As a PE player, the imperative to grow pushes you to move faster, take more risk, and inject more money, and a family’s appetite might be different. The success of the family isn’t always the success of the private equity investor.

EnterpriseAM: What do you expect to be able to announce by this time next year?

EB: I’d hope to say we’ve closed Fund III, or are about to. Honestly, it’s 50/50 whether we’ll make it, because of the environment. We’re also thinking about a full or partial exit from Fund II to create some liquidity for our investors. We don’t have any plans yet, but if we managed that by this time next year, we’d be very proud of it.

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Egypt and South Korea upgrade to strategic partnership, launch CEPA talks as President Sisi continues Asia tour

Egypt and South Korea upgraded their relationship to a strategic partnership last week, with Presidents Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Lee Jae Myung launching negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and signing 12 cooperation documents, according to a joint statement. The agreement is meant to cover trade in goods and services, economic cooperation, and supply-chain resilience. Both sides agreed to hold the first formal negotiation round in 1H 2027 and work toward an early conclusion.

A renewed pitch for SCZone: The visit — El Sisi’s first to South Korea since 2016 — included a roundtable with 23 Korean companies where the president renewed Egypt’s invitation for a Korean industrial zone in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

What’s in the 12 documents: The package includes MoUs on shipbuilding (eco-friendly ship repair and workforce training), clean energy (solar, wind, green hydrogen, and peaceful nuclear energy), power infrastructure (transmission expansion and energy storage), and ICT (high-speed internet, AI, and cybersecurity). South Korea became the first Asian country to sign a social security agreement with Egypt, exempting posted workers from dual contributions and letting ins. periods count toward pension eligibility in both countries. On defense, both leaders called the joint K9 howitzer production a success and agreed to deepen cooperation. Separately, Hyundai Rotem signed an MoU with Egypt’s National Authority for Tunnels to study supplying 44 hydrogen-powered tram trainsets for the New Administrative Capital.

Why it matters: Korean companies in Egypt generate more than USD 1.5 bn in annual production, roughly 80% exported to 47 markets across Africa and the Middle East. Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Rotem anchor that footprint. The strategic partnership upgrades the bilateral relationship from project-by-project cooperation to an institutional framework with regular foreign-ministerial strategic dialogue, defense-industry coordination, and a formal CEPA track.

From Seoul to Kuala Lumpur

The president continued his Asia tour to Malaysia — his first visit since taking office — where four MoUs were signed on women’s empowerment, higher education, tourism, and investment, according to the Malaysian Prime Minister’s statement. Both sides agreed to convene a joint committee in 1Q 2027 to advance cooperation, and identified renewable energy, industry, electronics, communications technology, and agriculture as priority areas. The visit builds on the November 2024 announcement by both countries to elevate ties to a strategic partnership.

What’s next: El Sisi has departed Malaysia and is currently in Indonesia, the final stop of this Asia tour. We will be keeping a close eye on new agreements and collaboration outcomes coming out today.

Electricity Minister: Dabaa’s nuclear fuel to arrive in May 2027 via dedicated seaport

Atomic power incoming: The nuclear fuel required to operate the Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant will arrive in May 2027 via a dedicated seaport built for that purpose in the Dabaa region, Electricity Minister Mahmoud Esmat said in an interview with El Sora’s Lamees El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 12:58). Two of the plant’s four units are slated to be connected to the grid in 2028, with the other two following in 2029, Esmat said. If both can’t be brought online on schedule, at least one unit will join the grid in 2028, he added.

Upping the wattage? The government is considering increasing the number of nuclear reactors in the country, though a final decision has not yet been made, Esmat said. Any new reactors would take far less time to build than the Dabaa plant did because the necessary infrastructure is already in place, he added.

REMEMBER- Esmat said in August that the government is considering adding at least two new units to the Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant, with the possibility of increasing that to four additional units. Esmat added at the time that the government was discussing the proposed expansions with Russia's Rosatom, starting with the first two units, though no final investment decision, cost, or timeline has been announced.

A future outlook: The plant is expected to generate around 35 bn kWh annually, equivalent to roughly 12% of Egypt’s projected electricity demand by 2030, former vice chairman of the Nuclear Power Plants Authority Ali Abdel Nabi told us in August. With an availability rate exceeding 92%, the plant would provide continuous power for hotels, residential developments, and future industries without placing additional strain on the national grid.

MSC added its weekly Himalaya services at Damietta, its second new call there in recent months

Damietta Container and Cargo Handling Company (DCHC) has added MSC’s weekly Himalaya service to its schedule, with the first call made by the MSC Siena on Thursday, 8 October, according to a DCHC statement. The service links India to the Eastern Mediterranean through Damietta Container Terminal before continuing to ports in Spain and Portugal. It’s MSC’s second new service at the terminal recently, after its Mediterranean-US East Coast (EMUSA) service, and should add to the volumes the terminal handles.

The expansion shows the terminal can handle larger vessels and services, DCHC Executive Managing Director Rafik Galal said, describing it as part of the Transport Ministry’s push to make Egypt a regional hub for maritime transport, logistics, and transit trade.

IN CONTEXT- Damietta Port is in the middle of a multi-phase expansion that includes the Damietta Alliance container terminal, which should lift container capacity and draw more Eastern Mediterranean feeder traffic. The India-Europe loop runs through the Suez Canal, adding to signs that carriers are returning to the route.

NREA eyes EGP 2 bn

The New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) is in talks with local banks for EGP 2 bn in credit facilities to accelerate this year’s renewable energy targets, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM, without naming the banks or facility structure. The push comes as NREA looks to increase its own build-out target from roughly 13 GW to 20.8 GW, adding new wind (12.1 GW), solar (8.7 GW), and battery storage (13.9 GWh) capacity on top of its current operational fleet.

IN CONTEXT- In August, we flagged that the government’s 45% by 2028 renewables target had been raised without a published demand forecast needed to verify it. Additionally, hitting an installed capacity target doesn’t guarantee hitting a generation-share target if plants don’t run as often as assumed.

ALSO- The Electricity Ministry inked a EUR 32.3 mn contract with Indian firm Bajel Projects for two Suez Canal Economic Zone interconnection projects, alongside an EGP 1.2 bn contract with a consortium for a separate grid project, ministry officials tell us.

An African credit rating agency

The African Credit Rating Agency was launched on Wednesday. CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla joined the launch event in Port Louis, Mauritius, alongside heads of state and government and leaders of African and international financial institutions, according to a CBE statement. Abdalla called the agency a step toward helping African economies reach capital markets and investment through assessments that account for the continent’s unique economic and institutional circumstances.

BACKGROUND- The CBE has backed the idea since 2017, working with the UN Economic Commission for Africa. The case rested on structural problems that weigh on African sovereign ratings: limited data availability and quality, information gaps between African economies and both investors and international rating agencies, and thin institutional and statistical capacity.

REMEMBER- CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla proposed directing 10% of African banking liquidity and 5% of international reserves toward investments within the continent, part of a broader push for structural reforms to unlock intra-African investment and retain domestic capital continent-wide. The CBE has also signed at least 15 MoUs with African central banks covering training and governance.

Drawing a brighter line

Gold-linked ins. is getting a tighter sales rulebook, with ins.ers required to make clear that customers are buying an ins. product — not a deposit, savings account, or standalone investment, according to a statement from the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA). The regulator says it had received customer complaints and identified bank-channel sales practices that blurred the line between investment-linked ins. and other banking, savings, and investment products.

Ins.ers will have to spell out what sits behind the policy. Before contracting, they must disclose a policy’s benefits, risks, and material terms, how any gold component is managed, and whether customers can take delivery of the asset or redeem their investment. They also cannot imply they own or manage the asset when they don’t, or market the policy like a deposit, and must document a customer acknowledgment — which doesn’t relieve the ins.er of its disclosure duties.

What’s next: Ins.ers must review the materials, forms, and sales practices they use to distribute investment-linked products through banks. They have one month to send the FRA both the measures they have taken and the customer acknowledgment form they plan to use.

REMEMBER- The FRA allowed life ins.ers to put part of investment-linked premiums into gold and other precious metals for the first time last November, subject to regulatory approval.

A fresh batch

The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) has approved 12 new companies and entities, according to a statement — including a health maintenance organization (HMO) with a temporary license, a venture capital company that can take stakes in special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), an open-ended agricultural fund, and three more debt collectors. Here’s the rundown:

#1- Care Plus became the second company to receive a temporary HMO license, following MedRight Health Solutions’ license in July. Specialized medical insurers — also known as HMOs — underwrite coverage themselves, unlike third-party administrators, which manage healthcare programs without carrying ins. risk.

#2- The FRA approved El Manzalawi Venture Capital, a company set up to acquire stakes in entities or SPACs. It joins Catalyst Partners Middle East, Egypt’s first SPAC. The regulator has been tweaking the framework to encourage more vehicles to come to market.

#3- Al Ahly Green Agricultural Investment Fund received its license to operate as an open-ended agricultural fund, after securing FRA approval in March.

#4- Three more debt collectors joined the FRA’s registry: Trusty for Debt Collection and Field Inquiry, Prime Solutions Middle East for Debt Collection, and Taswiya for Consultancy and Debt Collection. This brings the total number of approved debt-collection firms to 11, after the FRA began registering the first companies in June.

Euro charter focus

Egyptian private carrier Sky Vision Airlines aims to expand its fleet from eight to 20 aircraft by 2027, Deputy CEO Omar Ghreib told Asharq Business. The charter operator will introduce a low-cost carrier (LCC) model for domestic routes, offering unbundled base airfares where passengers pay separately for meals and checked baggage. As part of its international expansion, the airline plans to launch direct charter routes from Germany and Italy to Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada in 2027 to capture rising European inbound tourism, Ghreib added.

IN CONTEXT- The fleet expansion aligns with the Civil Aviation Ministry’s broader effort to expand domestic fleet capacity and boost total annual passenger traffic across Egyptian airports. Founded in 2022, Sky Vision currently operates Airbus narrow-body passenger jets and freighters serving regional charter, cargo, and tour routes. As we’ve previously covered, private domestic carriers have been ramping up fleet expansion and route additions to accommodate rising tourist arrival targets and increase airport throughput capacity, in line with the Civil Aviation Ministry’s strategy to scale airport passenger capacity and 30 mn arrival target by 2030.

Smooth operator

Over at the national flag carrier, EgyptAir inked a technical cooperation protocol with Lufthansa Systems to modernize its aircraft crew management systems, according to a statement. Under the agreement, EgyptAir will integrate Lufthansa’s digital operational planning software to automate crew scheduling, streamline flight rosters, and manage turnarounds. The tech contract comes as the airline works to control labor overhead and address scheduling bottlenecks amid ongoing fleet operational scaling.

Riyadh trips deferred

EgyptAir has suspended flights from Cairo and Alexandria to Riyadh until operations resume at King Khalid International Airport, according to a press release. Air Cairo, an EgyptAir subsidiary, has also suspended its 11 and 12 October flights between Riyadh and both Cairo and Sohag, the company said in a statement.

IN CONTEXT- Riyadh’s main airport was attacked again yesterday, a missile hitting the complex housing King Khalid International Airport’s domestic terminals 3 and 4 and wounding several people, a regional official told AP News. The attack killed 12 people, including an Egyptian national, injured 309, and caused material damage that is still being assessed, the Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation said in a statement.The attack comes amid ongoing clashes between the Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces.

Also on our radar:

The Irrigation Ministry is linking a digital crop-forecasting tool to its irrigation rotation system so it can measure crop water needs more accurately and distribute water through canals more precisely. It’s also upgrading its rotation app to give farmers more accurate timing on when water will reach their canals. The push ties into the Agriculture Ministry’s plan to modernize irrigation and lift farm productivity by up to 20%. (Statement)
The Egypt Forum 2026 website is now live, ahead of the event’s 19-24 October run. The website allows citizens, experts, and specialists to weigh in on the issues up for discussion. The site drew more than 7 mn views and over 250k unique visitors in its first three days. (Statement)
Arclyn Developments is launching in Egypt through an Egyptian-Emirati partnership, targeting an initial EGP 20 bn investment portfolio across three projects in the New Capital. Backed by partner Sheikh Omar Al Marzouqi and chairman Yasser Al-Prince, its first project, Metrova — a mixed-use development in the MU23 area — is already underway, with over 80% of the land value paid. (Press release)
The Cabinet approved a Finance Ministry evaluation handing over the Port Said Hotel (formerly Helnan) to Pickalbatros Hotel Management on a 30-year usufruct license. (Statement)

War puts regional growth on the path to a contraction

It’s not all bad news for regional growth prospects this year, with chances in sectors like AI offering some light to offset the gloom cast by the conflict across our region. Globally, growth has only been shaved down to 2.5% from 2.6% at the start of the year.

Growth in our neck of the woods is likely to trail global averages, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report (pdf). Output for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region is now set to contract by 2.1% this year, reversing last year’s 3.3% expansion.

Within the GCC, the effects will be starker, as economies are set for a 4.3% contraction, according to the World Bank. GCC growth projection came in at 4.4% for this year back in January. The UAE is set for a 1.6% contraction, 2% is penciled in for KSA, and Qatar is staring down a 20.9% decline.

Surprising exactly no one, the war has been the biggest dampener of growth after it cut off the export route for one-fifth of oil and LNG. Effects weren’t limited to depleted oil revenues, but also put the brakes on other sectors that had been showing strong indicators of growth, such as tourism, logistics, and aviation, while also weighing on business sentiment and driving food inflation.

The picture is also fragmented: Alternative export routes for KSA, the UAE, and Oman helped offset some of the oil revenue losses. On the flip side, oil-importing economies have avoided much of the brunt exporters faced and are set to see growth rates rise to 4.3%, up from 3.9% last year.

Could AI be the saving grace? The World Bank sees AI as transformative, but notes a massive schism within the region when it comes to who is positioned to catch the upside as it stands (the UAE and KSA), and countries like Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia, which are home to growing digital ecosystems and readiness gaps simultaneously. Lagging regulation and the current lack of Arabic-trained AI models also risk hampering the region from reaping the benefits of AI.

Regional cooperation on AI is the region’s biggest, and yes, most untapped, opportunity, according to the report, which sees pooling resources, compute capacity, and government frameworks as leading to a more broad-based benefit.

The outlook: Heightened uncertainty, higher interest rates leading to less financial space for regional entities, and inflationary pressure are all downside risks to watch out for. If the regional geopolitical situation stabilized by the end of the year, growth would rebound to 7.8% for 2027.

But that comes with a caveat: The World Bank flags that any such growth would be chalked up to restored oil exports rather than an uptick in productivity, stressing the need for better regional resilience to hedge against future crises.

EGX30	53,265	-0.1% (YTD: +27.3%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 52.32	Sell 52.46
USD (CIB)	Buy 52.30	Sell 52.40
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	10,376	-1.6% (YTD: -1.1%)
ADX	9,796	-0.1% (YTD: -2.0%)
DFM	5,818	+0.3% (YTD: -3.8%)
S&P 500	7,812	+0.6% (YTD: +14.1%)
FTSE 100	10,552	+1.1% (YTD: +6.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,173	+0.8% (YTD: +6.5%)
Brent crude	USD 104.72	+0.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.22	+1.6%
Gold	USD 4,216	+1.4%
BTC	USD 82,964	+0.5% (YTD: -5.3%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,127	+0.1% (YTD: +13.5%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	146.90	+0.3% (YTD: -3.3%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	14.84	-3.7% (YTD: -0.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.1% at Wednesday’s close on turnover of EGP 7.6 bn (33.4% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 27.3% YTD.

In the green: Orascom Construction (+4.0%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (+4.0%), and Fawry (+1.8%).

In the red: Alexandria Containers and goods (-2.8%), Eastern Company (-2.7%), and GB Corp (-2.4%).

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

9-11 October (Friday-Sunday): Autotech Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

10-11 October (Saturday-Sunday): Egypt Women’s Health Summit (EWHS), Cairo Marriott Hotel.

12-18 October (Monday-Sunday): IMF & World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok.

13-14 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): GTR North Africa 2026 Conference, Dusit Thani Lakeview Cairo.

19-22 October (Monday-Thursday): UfM Economic Forum, Cairo.

19-24 October (Monday-Saturday): Egypt 2026 Forum, The St. Regis New Capital.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): IEX Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

NOVEMBER

5-7 November (Thursday-Saturday): ICA Annual Conference 2026, Cairo.

6-8 November (Friday-Sunday): Global Entrepreneurship Festival, JW Marriott Hotel, New Cairo.

7-10 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT Forum, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo.

10 November (Tuesday): Cityscape Egypt Forum, Cairo.

DECEMBER

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Food Africa, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

4Q 2026: Banque du Caire IPO.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Agri Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

29 September - 2 October (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape Egypt Exhibition, Cairo.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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