FinMin leans on the domestic market, borrowing EGP 4.3 tn in four months

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Companies paying for NUCA land in USD from abroad will skip the line and the bidding from November

Good morning, folks. You will read below about three things the government is doing at once right now: selling a slice of a bank, borrowing EGP 4.3 tn at home, and rewriting the tax rules.

Banque du Caire rings the EGX bell today as BQDC, and we will be watching the state’s first IPO since United Bank in December 2024. The draw was sizable — EGP 205.8 bn in orders, the most an EGX private placement has ever recorded. We will see what the first session does with a price that wasn’t discounted to its adviser’s fair value.

Leading the news well below: The government borrowed about EGP 4.3 tn at home in the first four months of FY 2026/27, per an official document we have seen — almost all of it to refinance existing debt. The latest rate hike makes that debt pricier, but a senior Finance Ministry official tells us local borrowing is still cheaper than the alternatives.

We sat down with Ramy Youssef, the deputy finance minister for tax policy, whose new strategy goes out for consultation before year-end. He tells us the planned levy of up to 4% on freezone goods sold into the local market won’t come until after the IMF’s eighth review closes, and it’s still under study. Things that stay the same (at least for now): no global minimum tax, the VAT threshold at EGP 500k, and no carbon tax or go-it-alone digital tax. What is coming is a new property tax app this month, and, separately, a digital price map by zone, published 90 days before any tax is tied to it.

And from Gourmet’s shelves: About 40% of what Gourmet sells now comes out of its own factory, Chief Innovation Officer Dalia Sultan told us on the latest episode of Making It, and the company wants that figure to reach 60%. Greek yoghurt came first, because nobody made it here and it couldn’t be imported at a sensible price; canned tomatoes and local mozzarella followed the same math.

***

It’s mail time! Who writes EnterpriseAM’s subject lines? Why are our podcasts audio only? How do we preserve the craft of writing while integrating AI policies across the newsroom?

These are some of the questions readers and listeners have sent us over the years, so on an upcoming episode of Making It, Patrick and the team will answer them along with anything else you’re curious about: whether it’s about the business, our coverage, how the newsroom is run, or why we do things the way we do.

Have a question for us? Record it as a voice memo (30-45 seconds), tell us your name at the top, and send it to [email protected] by Saturday, 7 November. We’ll also take written questions, but since we’re an audio show, we’d love to play yours in your own voice.

***

First pay, first served

Qualified Egyptian and foreign companies that commit to pay a land plot’s full price in USD wired from abroad get priority on any plot offered on installments and skip the price bidding, under a new “priority reservation” mechanism the Housing Ministry announced for November’s land offerings.

The entry ticket: register on NUCA’s foreign-investment portal and wire at least USD 100k from abroad by SWIFT, plus USD 5.5k. Once the transfer clears, NUCA books the plot immediately and stops taking requests from other companies for the same land, even if they filed first. The booking is provisional, not an allocation. The company then has one month from notification to wire the full price in USD, or the booking is canceled and USD 100k of what it paid is forfeited. A second track offers a selected group of “highly distinctive” plots sold only for 100% payment in USD from abroad, with no installment option.

For developers already inside the market, ACUD is drafting an incentives package that would give serious developers in the New Administrative Capital extra time in cases where they have completed a large share of construction but are stuck on financing the rest, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM. It’s an alternative to withdrawing land and re-offering it, which takes longer and puts buyers’ rights at risk. It is also preparing to re-offer plots clawed back from defaulting investors, aiming them at foreign investors through direct allocation or auction.

Why it matters: The common lever in both moves is currency. The Central Bank’s balance-of-payments report put net foreign investment in Egyptian property at USD 2.8 bn in FY 2025/26, up 47% from USD 1.9 bn. Egypt has tried this trade once already: the cabinet approved an amendment to the foreign-ownership law in July 2023 that would drop the two-property cap, on condition that the buyer paid in hard currency from abroad. NUCA’s Decision 217 last August had already ranked large developers first and foreign-currency buyers third.

Merger on the horizon

Orascom Construction expects to complete its merger with Euronext-listed OCI in December, according to a company disclosure (pdf). OCI shareholders approved the move on 30 October, after securing Orascom Construction shareholders’ approval in January. The timetable could shift, the company says, since some steps hinge on third parties and regulatory approvals.

What’s next: Orascom Construction’s board will meet on Thursday to approve a capital increase and allot 97.2 mn new shares to OCI, subject to the agreement’s remaining conditions. The increase nearly doubles the company’s paid-in capital to USD 207.4 mn. The target date for issuing and listing the new shares on the ADX and the EGX is 24 November, with eligible OCI shareholders slated to receive their shares on or around 8 December. OCI will then delist from Euronext Amsterdam and be liquidated, according to NNS Holding’s offer memorandum (pdf).

Still in play: Nassef Sawiris’ family investment firm NNS Holding, which held c. 57.3% of OCI as of mid-September, is offering EUR 4.10 per share to OCI shareholders who prefer to exit rather than receive Orascom shares. The offer closes on 17 November unless extended. Separately, a petition by Dutch investment firm Value8 asking the Enterprise Chamber to stop the merger vote and investigate OCI was still pending as of mid-October. The merger agreement’s long-stop date is 30 December.

REMEMBER- The Enterprise Chamber barred OCI from voting on the merger in January over concerns about Sawiris’ role on both sides. Court-appointed directors agreed in July to allow a vote on condition that NNS’s offer is declared unconditional and settled.

Whatever floats your reactor

Russia’s Rosatom is in talks to supply Egypt with floating nuclear plants, Reuters reports, after CEO Alexei Likhachev named us alongside Togo, Namibia, and Tanzania as countries in active discussions. Rosatom is offering 100 MW units under a power purchase agreement model, with servicing and refueling done in Russia. Each unit can run for up to 60 years. No further details were given on capacity, unit count, or terms for Egypt.

Why it matters: Floating plants use smaller reactors and require less land infrastructure, making it possible to add power quickly and at lower cost, the newswire notes. The trade-off is scale: each floating unit is 100 MW, against 1.2 GW for each of El Dabaa’s four reactors. Only one floating nuclear plant is currently operational worldwide: Rosatom’s Akademik Lomonosov, which has powered Russia’s remote Chukotka region since 2020. The appeal for Egypt is gas: roughly half the gas supplying power at peak is now imported, as we covered in one of our Power Trip pieces in September. Electricity Minister Mahmoud Esmat said in August that El Dabaa alone could save about 8 bn bcm of gas.

ICYMI- The Electricity Ministry is studying at least two more reactors at El Dabaa, Esmat said in August, with no final investment decision, cost, or timeline announced. The existing 4.8 GW plant is estimated at USD 28.75 bn, with a reported USD 25 bn Russian loan covering 85%. It’s due to receive nuclear fuel in May 2027, and its first two units are scheduled to connect to the grid in 2028, and the other two in 2029.


Happening today

Banque du Caire rings the EGX bell in a couple of hours as it starts trading as BQDC, the state’s first IPO since United Bank in December 2024. The bourse’s three other debuts this year were private (Gourmet, Korra Energi, and MNT-Halan), and the roughly 20 state companies added to the EGX in between were temporary listings that sold no shares. Banque Misr sold 45% at EGP 5.30, the top of the range, raising EGP 36.37 bn (about USD 658 mn) and valuing the bank at EGP 80.83 bn (about USD 1.46 bn).

Demand got the sale there: The books opened on 19 October at 30% and EGP 4.82-5.30 a share; the private tranche sold out in hours and drew EGP 205.8 bn of orders — 6x, or 19.8x without the pre-committed cornerstones, the most an EGX private placement has recorded. The regulator then cleared 45%, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and International Finance Corporation put in USD 100 mn each. The two lenders plus four other cornerstone funds took about three-quarters of the placement.

We’ll be watching the floor and the float. Retail holds 343.1 mn shares and, for 30 days after the open, can sell them back at EGP 5.30 through a stabilization fund CI Capital runs on the retail proceeds; Banque Misr keeps 55% and is locked in, with EGX rules freezing 51% of the bank for two years. On price, the offer wasn’t discounted to its adviser’s number (EGP 5.30 is exactly Baker Tilly’s fair value, as banking analyst Hany Abou El Fotouh told us last week), though two brokerages put fair value at EGP 6.55 and EGP 7.80. “The real test starts when the stock starts trading,” he says.


PSA-

#1- Investors are being asked to help design Egypt’s first tax sukuk. The Tax Authority has opened a consultation on the inaugural issue, giving businesses and taxpayers 10 days to send views and proposals to the authority via email before it completes the executive rules, which it says it will publish once they are ready.

Details: The mechanism runs on a provision that has sat unused in the Income Tax Law since 2005 and was activated this year. Under the final offering rules seen by EnterpriseAM, subscriptions are collected at bank branches with the central bank and the EGX involved, and the Finance Ministry issues against those orders. Subscriptions are limited to between 20% and 25% of the income tax declared in last year’s return. The return is variable, paid at maturity, and exempt from all taxes — the central bank’s average deposit rate over the holding period minus 1%, or about 19% against October’s 20% deposit rate. Maturities follow the filing calendar: November 2026 through April 2027 for companies, and December 2026 to March 2027 for individuals.

#2- WEATHER- Cairo is in for a proper hot day today before a cool night kicks in, with a high of 32°C and a low of 20°C — two degrees hotter by day but two degrees cooler overnight than yesterday, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s the same beat on the coast in Alexandria too, with a high of 31°C and a low of 19°C.

The big story abroad

Hedging the AI wager: Companies are increasingly relying on financial derivatives such as put options and credit-default swaps to shield themselves from a possible downturn in AI stocks, with the price of default ins. on Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle climbing to its highest level since 2021. Neoclouds and data centers are also weighing put options linked to the price of computing power and compute indexes as a safeguard in case computing prices fall.

German ministers vowed harsh punishment for the rioters and looters who vandalized shops and left more than 100 police officers injured in Frankfurt overnight. They also commended security forces for stopping the unrest from spreading further. The violence centred on Frankfurt on Saturday, as tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets in dozens of German cities to call for better education and a lower cost of living. The rallies were organized by the campaign group “Gen Z regelt,” which roughly means “Gen Z takes charge.” Masked rioters in Frankfurt, Germany’s financial capital, damaged 17 shops and looted five.

Overnight attacks by Russia hit energy facilities in four Ukrainian regions and cut power to hundreds of thousands of homes, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Electricity was partly restored on Sunday as an unusual humanitarian ceasefire in the Kherson region came to an end. The truce had allowed civilians to leave the Russian-held city of Oleshky.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We look into how Egypt’s plans to revive its PPP language schools are being held up by a plot shortage in the second phase.

Somabay is heading to WTM London!

We look forward to connecting with global travel partners, strengthening relationships, and exploring new opportunities for our Red Sea destination.

Let’s connect in London and shape what’s next for Somabay.

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DEBT WATCH

FinMin borrowed around EGP 4.3 tn at home in four months, almost all of it refinancing

The government borrowed about EGP 4.3 tn from the domestic market in the first four months of FY 2026/27, funding the year almost entirely at home. The monthly split runs EGP 967 bn in July, 969 bn in August, 1.3 tn in September, and 1.08 tn in October, according to an official document seen by EnterpriseAM.

Almost all of it is refinancing rather than new money. The ministry issues mostly short paper: bills made up 85% of accepted domestic issuance in the last quarter, for which it has published (pdf) an issuance breakdown, against 15% for bonds. In addition, new domestic issuance carries an average maturity of about a year, so most of what it sells has to be refinanced within the year. The FY 2026/27 plan targeted EGP 3.4 tn in new sovereign debt for the full year, less than what was raised in the four months that have already turned over.

The shift to home funding was the plan: FY 2026/27 directs 89-93% of financing needs to the domestic market and 6-9% abroad, with concessional and semi-concessional loans and budget support expected to cover 66-72% of the external side. What the ministry can raise abroad is capped, as the Cabinet approved USD 3 bn in international issuances for the year, and the ministry has been weighing a return to the market between October and December. A senior Finance Ministry official tells EnterpriseAM that local borrowing is being prioritized even at today’s cost, arguing that it is still cheaper than the alternatives while international markets stay difficult.

IN CONTEXT- The rate rise that the official puts at EGP 150 bn was 100 bps on Thursday — the first hike since March 2024, reversing an easing cycle that delivered 825 bps of cuts across six meetings since April 2025 and defying analysts’ expectations for a hold. On a domestic debt stock of EGP 13.68 tn, 100 bps is worth about EGP 137 bn a year, by our math. The added burden has not changed the strategy, the official says: fund at home, lengthen the curve, and keep rolling the bills.

The ministry is working the maturity wall from both ends. It cut the share of 91-day bills in domestic issuance from 25.7% in July-September 2025 to 12.9% in January-March 2026, lifted the bond share to 15% over the same stretch, brought five-year bonds back, and introduced a three-year sukuk in the local market for the first time. Average maturity of new domestic issuance reached 1.1 years in April-June 2026, the highest in three years, against 0.84 years in July-September 2024, according to the ministry’s debt bulletin.

A new-ish instrument: The ministry issued an 18-month instrument carrying a variable return tied to the six-month Treasury bill auction, one of several tools under study, according to the official. The government used floating-rate paper before: the ministry sold its first 63-day floating-rate notes in July, and the March bulletin lists three-, five-, and 10-year floating-rate bonds. So what’s new is the 18-month maturity and the six-month index. Retail treasury paper for Egyptians abroad is also under study, with pricing the remaining step, the official says.

DATA POINT- Budget-sector debt stood at EGP 17.85 tn, or 83.9% of GDP, at the end of March 2026 — EGP 13.68 tn domestic and EGP 4.17 tn, or USD 76.6 bn, external. That is down from a peak of 95.7% in June 2023, and the government targets 78% by June 2027 and 71-73% by FY 2028/29. Gross financing needs fell by about five percentage points of GDP in FY 2025/26, according to the IMF, and the ministry targets another five this FY.

Domestic banks are carrying the load. The banking sector held 36% of the outstanding EGP T-bill portfolio and 63% of the T-bond portfolio as of March 2026, with foreign holdings at 12% and 11%. Foreign holdings of EGP government securities peaked at USD 38.1 bn in January and fell to USD 27.1 bn by March.

The retail side: The Citizen Bond, sold through Egypt Post at a 17.75% return over 18 months, launched in February and took EGP 2 bn in its first week. A second phase ran from April, and the official describes a further phase as possible early next year.

In other debt news

Egypt signed a USD 1 bn World Bank development policy financing agreement yesterday, according to a Cabinet statement, tying the second phase to state-company governance, private-investment barriers, competition rules, revenue mobilization, and the financial sustainability of electricity and water. The board approved the money in May (USD 800 mn from the bank plus a USD 200 mn UK credit guarantee) as the second tranche of a three-part program in June 2024, and it pays into the budget once the reforms are legislated. A third pillar, aimed at drawing private capital into those sectors, is due next year.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

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Coffee With

Coffee With Ramy Youssef on what Egypt’s tax strategy will say, and what it won’t

Egypt’s problem with investors was never the tax rate on its own. Amendments arriving faster than anyone could plan for and not knowing where policy would go next are the real challenges. Ramy Youssef (LinkedIn), the deputy finance minister for tax policy, describes the ministry’s goal as establishing a stable regulatory and procedural framework that gives investors total certainty over their costs and obligations years out, “not merely adjusting numbers or handing out passing exemptions.”

Youssef has run the ministry’s tax-policy file since November 2021. He now also chairs the UN committee drafting a framework convention on international tax cooperation (the table where the digital-tax questions later in this conversation get settled) and has headed the Real Estate Tax Authority since June.

We sat down with Youssef to talk about the strategy he is drafting, which issues on his desk are settled and which are still under study (like income tax, VAT, freezones, the global minimum tax, carbon, and the digital economy), as well as the property tax overhaul, now accessible by phone.

EnterpriseAM: In August, the ministry shelved plans for a new income tax act in favor of a third package of facilitations. Your strategy now takes in the same ground. Where does it stand, and does it mean a new law after all?

Ramy Youssef: We are putting the final touches on it now, and it goes out for community dialogue before the end of the year. It takes in the whole income tax policy track (companies and individuals), including the brackets and the exemption threshold. It also has to settle the question underneath all of it: a new income tax law or amendments to the existing one. Nothing in it is final until the consultation is done.

EnterpriseAM: The tax you were preparing was a flat levy of up to 4% on goods sold into the domestic market from freezones, and the IMF’s eighth review due this month has been waiting on it. Where is it now?

RY: It won’t be imposed before the eighth review closes. The policy track still needs discussion between the Investment Ministry, the General Authority for Investment and Freezones, the Finance Ministry, and other government bodies. It’s under study, not settled. The Fund asked us to study the market, and in the conditions we are in, this is not the moment to put new burdens on; the idea is on the table, and once we have a vision, it goes to the Cabinet. Any change of this kind would need legislation, which means it hasn’t reached implementation.

EnterpriseAM: Egypt signed on to the OECD’s two-pillar plan in 2021, and in March 2025, we were told meeting the Pillar Two framework wasn’t among the government’s priorities. The OECD and the big accounting firms want a timetable for the 15% minimum. Is it happening?

RY: We ran a study on it, and applying it isn’t a priority for Egypt now. The preliminary feasibility work hasn’t shown returns so far that justify the legislative and administrative cost. It requires amendments to domestic law and extensive executive regulations. The test has to be a tangible benefit to the Egyptian economy, not adopting an international standard for the sake of keeping up. The revenue would be limited: our freezones already pay an annual fee on total revenue that runs close to that rate, without the added burden. The rules only reach multinational groups with global revenue of at least EUR 750 mn, which is a narrow slice of companies. This isn’t a rejection in principle. We judge the issue on its economics.

EnterpriseAM: We were told in March 2025 and again in October 2025 that the ministry would leave the EGP 500k VAT registration threshold untouched despite the lobbying. It’s still EGP 500k. Why hold there?

RY: We took those requests seriously, and we left it. Raising it creates a large distortion: a business that isn’t registered can sell the same goods for less because it collects no VAT, while its registered competitor carries the tax. Take the threshold to EGP 3 mn or EGP 10 mn and you may give businesses a reason to keep declared revenue just under the line. The original purpose was to spare small activity the administrative burden, and e-invoicing and electronic filing have removed most of that burden, which weakens the administrative case for raising it. Some countries apply no threshold at all. The current level suits conditions now, and we can revisit it if they change.

EnterpriseAM: CBAM is in its definitive phase, though Egyptian exporters have a preliminary reprieve through 2027. Where does a domestic carbon tax stand?

RY: We are working out the best way to handle the European requirements. CBAM puts a carbon cost on covered goods when they enter the European market. If a company bears a recognized carbon cost at origin, that counts in the European treatment; if the tax isn’t collected here, the company pays the cost in Europe instead of paying it in Egypt. The aim is an arrangement that supports the competitiveness of investment and Egyptian exports, rather than a system imposed before its effects are assessed. A domestic carbon tax is not on the table now, despite the studies, and conditions may delay it.

EnterpriseAM: India and Canada tried taxing digital services on their own. Will Egypt do the same?

RY: We want a fair share of tax on these practices: a service delivered from Egypt to a company in another country through global platforms, which is an income tax question. But we are not taking unilateral measures on digital services now. We are following the negotiations at the OECD and the UN on rules for the digital economy, and those talks also cover the global minimum tax and the international movement of investors. India and Canada moved ahead on their own and ran into complications and pressure that led them to suspend or stop some of the measures. Waiting for consensus may be more effective than unilateral moves that create disputes without revenue to match the cost.

EnterpriseAM: The framework we heard of in July — the business zones bill — meant to draw companies that serve markets outside Egypt into financial and business districts with tax and customs incentives attached. Where does it stand, and what’s in it for large firms?

RY: It’s aimed at the large companies, and the incentives could take different forms, like exemptions for a set period or reductions in rates. The bill still needs Cabinet approval before it is put forward and referred to parliament.

EnterpriseAM: You now also run the Real Estate Tax Authority, and its app drew complaints through September before the filing deadline was pushed back. What has changed?

RY: We have about 2.2 mn accounts registered and close to 3.3 mn units put through the app. The contract with the previous company was canceled after problems in handling it, and we gave taxpayers a full three months to make up for the delay. The work has gone to eFinance, and the new app is due in the first week of November alongside Cairo ICT. It’ll come with a better interface, more stable options, and new features, while retaining all previously submitted declaration data.

EnterpriseAM: And the price map. How does anyone know what their flat is worth before they are taxed on it?

RY: We are building a digital price map on geographic information systems, setting average prices by zone instead of estimating every unit separately. It draws on sale and purchase transactions, contracts, earlier valuations, and market data, and committees from the governorate, the authority, and local experts review it and set the bands. Each zone gets an average price per meter, which then feeds the regulatory formula. The map is published and opened to the public 90 days before any tax link, so people can see the basis. It won’t be fixed: appeals and new data will move it, and if objections cluster on one street or one area, we will analyze whether the valuation there needs revisiting.

EnterpriseAM: What about the parts people feel directly, like deadlines, factories sitting on a property tax break, and ATMs?

RY: We are not focused on maximizing the property tax take at this stage. We are focused on the quality of the service and rebuilding confidence in it, and we will judge ourselves on declarations filed, how much of the stock we actually counted, and the service itself, not on revenue alone. So we extended filings by three months to 31 December 2026, and the settlement and penalty-waiver window by six more to 2 April 2027. Filing inside the window earns the incentives; filing after it is still possible under the rules, without the discount. Payment runs across the year, in one go or in installments, with no delay penalty for simply spreading payment within the year the tax falls due (the penalty rules apply once the legal deadline has passed) and through e-payment operators, banks, InstaPay, and Apple Pay.

On factories, the state is carrying the tax rather than exempting them, and we are in talks with the Federation of Industries on whether that continues, including whether the tax applies to buildings only, with the surrounding open land left out, and how storage areas are treated. Nothing there is settled. On ATMs, we decided they aren’t subject to the tax: they can be moved without being destroyed, so they are movables, not property.

EnterpriseAM: You say Egypt already has a wide set of incentives, like the investment law, green hydrogen, SMEs, and freezones. If incentives aren’t the answer, what is?

RY: Customs clearance. If inputs sit at the border, the investor carries ground rent and loses production days, and the exemption is worth very little to someone who cannot run his plant efficiently. Beyond that: clear administrative procedures, stable contracts, land allocation and ownership, the ability to import and export, and foreign currency and liquidity to operate. Tax administration efficiency and clear audit procedures are among the most important things that give confidence to investors. Competitiveness is ease of compliance, clarity of obligations, and less friction between the taxpayer and the tax officer.

EnterpriseAM: Tax revenue is up sharply. Does that hold, and does any of this add to the bill?

RY: Tax revenue rose around 35% in FY 2025/26, and we are moving in line with the targets set for the year despite conditions. The strategy is to widen the base and improve compliance rather than load more onto taxpayers who already pay, and the authority’s role is to secure correct collection, not the largest possible haul at any price. Our focus now is supporting investment and industry while avoiding decisions that add new burdens on investors.

4

RETAIL

Gourmet’s Dalia Sultan on making the food it used to import and what comes next

Roughly 40% of what Gourmet sells comes out of its own factory, Chief Innovation Officer Dalia Sultan estimates, and the company wants that to reach 60%. She put the split on the record in the latest episode of Making It published last week, and it’s the number that explains the shelf: a grocer that opened as a single Maadi shop in 2008 selling imported meat, cheese, and olive oil now runs a manufacturing business behind it.

IN CONTEXT- Gourmet listed in February in an all-secondary offering. B Investments and four individual shareholders sold 190.5 mn shares, 47.6% of the company, raising close to EGP 1.3 bn and valuing the grocer at some EGP 2.8 bn, with the shares closing their first session at the 40% regulatory limit. B Investments has sold down since, selling another 6.5% in September at EGP 16 a share, more than double the EGP 6.90 of the IPO, taking it to 33.5%.

Manufacturing started with Greek yoghurt. Nobody made it in Egypt, and it couldn’t be imported at a sensible price (too short a shelf life, too much shipping), so it could carry a luxury price, and the margin made the case, Sultan says. Canned tomatoes took longer: Gourmet couldn’t produce them cheaper than Italian imports until recently, she says. Local mozzarella improved the same way once producers could pay more for inputs and still undercut imports, she says.

Consistency is the key, and it’s built out of two rooms. The weighing room portions exactly what a recipe needs and nothing more: for a hundred packs of hummus, the dried chickpeas, the lemons, even the salt for a hundred packs. The sorting room rejects ingredient batches before they reach the line. Once a recipe is approved, it’s locked in, and the rules carry strict consequences, with staff fired or moved to other departments for deviating, Sultan says.

Scale is the next constraint, and it’s a people problem as much as a capex one. Everyone building a food business in Egypt recruits out of Gourmet, Sultan says. That means the quality team has to be retrained as the operation grows, and capacity comes next: the company is working on more of it now, she explains, potentially a new line, potentially a new factory. The balance sheet leaves room for it: Gourmet entered the listing with EGP 274 mn in liquidity and EGP 29 mn in debt. It runs alongside the shop pipeline: two to three new stores a year on top of its 22 stores at the June count to push sales past EGP 9 bn by 2030 against EGP 2.7 bn of standalone revenue in 2025.

The one rule she would change is shelf life. Frozen products containing chicken or meat are capped at three months under the guidance of the Egyptian Organization for Standardization and Quality, against the six to 10 months she says the same items hold, while imports arriving with 12 months validity are granted six. Her reading of the logic is that the regulator does not guarantee the cold chain, which, as our cold chain reporting shows, remains the weak point in Egypt’s food logistics.

What’s next: The Gulf comes before Europe: shelves there have “many gaps,” Sultan says, and the plan is to take the full Gourmet store experience somewhere abroad with a local partner, though no location has been settled.

5

A MESSAGE FROM AUC ONSI SAWIRIS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS EXECUTIVE EDUCATION

Smaller firms face the same shocks as large ones, with fewer people to absorb them

Global instability reaches an Egyptian business through its costs. Input cost inflation climbed to a three-month high in September, driven by pricier oil, metals, electricity, and transport, according to S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (pdf). In May, supplier delivery times lengthened at their fastest pace in nearly four years as shipping disruptions spread, the May survey (pdf) found. For a firm that buys materials from abroad, that means a higher bill and a longer wait, often in the same month.

Large companies have buffers for this. Specialist teams track currency and supply risk, and financial reserves can cover a sudden rise in costs or a failed technology investment. A smaller firm depends on its owner and one or two senior managers to make those calls.

AI adds a second pressure. Small firms’ AI use more than doubled across OECD member countries between 2023 and 2025, while large firms moved faster and widened the gap, an OECD report (pdf) shows. The tools are now cheap enough to buy. The harder part is judgment: choosing the right tool and applying it to the firm’s own work. A wrong choice costs money and management time, and a small team is short on both.

That concentrates more decisions in fewer hands. AUC Onsi Sawiris School of Business Executive Education’s programs address both pressures. AI for Business trains managers to use AI for faster, better-informed decisions. Driving Strategy Execution for Measurable Results focuses on keeping strategy on track when market conditions change. The Restaurant Business Management Program covers operations in a sector where currency swings and import costs hit margins first.

Each engagement begins with a look at the business. The school’s Business Solutions team runs a training needs assessment, then builds the program around the challenges the firm faces and the people expected to handle them. A smaller firm might train its leadership team together, take an exclusive cohort, or send a few managers into an open-enrollment program.

To learn more about AUC Onsi Sawiris School of Business Executive Education’s programs, click here.

6

Also on our Radar

The Tahya Misr Fund is planning to partner with The Marq to revive a North Coast project that’s been stalled since 2016

The Tahya Misr Fund plans to partner with private developer The Marq Communities to revive a stalled 900-feddan North Coast development targeting over EGP 150 bn in revenues, Asharq Business reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The project site, valued at c. EGP 6 bn, has reportedly been tangled in delivery delays dating back to 2016. The exact North Coast development was not identified.

REMEMBER- The move comes as the government pushes to resolve stalled projects. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi directed the formation of a committee in August to inspect delayed real estate projects nationwide and protect buyer rights as developers grapple with cost inflation and extended payment terms.

Also from the North Coast: Tatweer Misr has partnered with Nations of Sky to develop a 400-feddan integrated coastal project, according to a company statement. The project marks Tatweer Misr’s fourth development in the area, following Fouka Bay, D-Bay, and Salt. Tatweer Misr will manage master planning, construction, and operations, although financial terms and projected investment outlays were not disclosed.

Topping up

State-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) bought six cargoes of high-sulfur fuel oil, each 90-100k tons, for delivery in November and December through a recent tender, Reuters reports, citing industry traders. Fuel imports have been trending higher since April and held above 640k tons in October, roughly flat in September, according to Kpler data cited by the newswire. On a YTD basis, January-October imports are still down at 3.94 mn tons from 5.95 mn tons a year earlier.

IN CONTEXT- Fuel oil purchases have picked up as the Iran war tightened global LNG markets, with the government lining up fuel oil as backup for power plants this year. A single LNG cargo has reached about USD 80 mn after the war, roughly double pre-crisis levels. The Petroleum Ministry budgeted about USD 10.1 bn for LNG in FY 2026/27 and had already spent USD 5.8 bn by early October, putting it on track to overrun before the usual spring-summer demand peak, an analyst told the newswire. With LNG cargoes set to rise to 184 this year from 152, the ministry is also in talks with Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, and Hartree Partners on multiyear supply, the newswire reported in July.

Trading by code

EFG Holding’s EFG Hermes launched Younit yesterday, Egypt’s first platform to offer algorithmic trading services to retail investors through application programming interfaces (APIs), EFG Hermes said in a statement (pdf). Ahmed Waly, group head of securities brokerage at EFG Hermes, said at a press event EnterpriseAM attended that the platform operates as integrated, open infrastructure built alongside the EFG Hermes ONE app, giving traders, developers, and students the ability to automate trading strategies, build financial applications, and test their ideas in practice using historical market data before executing them.

7

A MESSAGE FROM VISA

Egypt’s agentic-commerce business case starts with revenue

Egyptian businesses expect agentic commerce to earn its budget in familiar terms through revenue, customers and costs. Revenue expansion ranks as the leading adoption driver, cited by 26.6% of the 200 senior decision-makers surveyed in Egypt for Agentic Commerce: Market Insights and Outlook for Egypt, research commissioned by Visa and conducted by Fast Company Middle East, powered by Probity. Customer loyalty and operational efficiency follow at 20% each. Respondents included C-suite executives, functional heads, and transformation leaders across retail, consumer products, travel and hospitality, and financial services.

The expected upside sits close to the customer. Improved customer satisfaction leads the expected benefits at 26.8%, followed by lower operating costs at 25.8% and higher sales conversion at 22.5%. Surveyed businesses also expect consumers to value deep personalization based on purchase history (41.9%) and smoother transactions (29%).

The early use cases are similarly close to the point of purchase. Automated price comparison, personalized recommendations, and smart replenishment are among the applications attracting attention. They are also where results are easiest to measure.

Investment plans show companies are prepared to test that case. Among the Egyptian organizations surveyed, more than eight in 10 (83.8%) expect to invest USD 250-500k in agentic-commerce solutions over the 12-24 months following the study. Another 6.4% expect to invest USD 500k-1 mn, while 9.6% expect to spend more than USD 1 mn.

That puts the pressure on pilots to prove themselves. For leadership teams, the figures worth watching will be revenue, conversion, customer satisfaction, and operating costs. Businesses appear willing to spend; the next question is what the first deployments actually deliver.

Explore the business case and investment findings in Visa’s full report.

8

PLANET FINANCE

Commodity prices are set to rise 23% this year, and the World Bank sees relief for energy in 2027, but not for food

Global commodity prices are set to rise 23% this year, their second-highest level since 2013, according to the World Bank’s October Commodity Markets Outlook report (pdf). Energy costs are leading with a 32% jump. Food adds 10%, metals and minerals are heading for an all-time high, and precious metals are on track for a 40% gain. Brent is forecast to average USD 91 / bbl for the year, after touching c. USD 110 in mid-October. That average is below the market: the Bank sees 4Q at almost USD 100, while Brent was USD 115.81 a barrel on 27 October.

The war cut oil, gas, and refined-fuel supply. Diesel and jet fuel climbed far more than crude because refining, not crude, is the bottleneck — and Russia, the obvious stand-in, has damaged refineries of its own. Net diesel exports from Russia and the Middle East fell about 60% y-o-y in September, and other exporters covered only half the gap. And there is little left in the tank: global inventories have dropped about 2.4 mn bbl / d since the war began, leaving OECD government stocks at end-September at their lowest in more than three decades and the US reserve at its lowest since 1982.

Food is the second front: Black Sea attacks pushed grain prices 25% above a year earlier in 3Q; the Bank sees them up 14% this year and 9% in 2027. El Niño is lifting rice and sugar too, and wheat output is set to shrink 3% in 2026-2027.

Metals run on a different engine: supply is tight, and demand comes from renewables, data centres, and tech. The Bank’s metals index is up 25% for the year, and aluminum, copper, and tin have all hit records. Base metal prices edged lower in 3Q while staying near those highs. Precious metals slipped 7% in 3Q 2026 but are up 40% for the year, with gold, silver, and platinum January-September averages up 42%, 71%, and 110%.

SOUND SMART- Commodity markets price the raw inputs of the economy, and they trade each other’s problems. The Bank’s Special Focus tracks 15 commodities from the Bloomberg index in six groups; industrial metals and food pass volatility on most, and oil’s role in that jumped once the war began. A Hormuz problem becomes a diesel, fertilizer, and food problem.

Next year only partly helps. Prices fall 7%, with Brent at USD 79, energy down 12%, and food up another 7%. That assumes the war stays quiet and the El Niño harvest losses stay manageable. If both bite at once, the Bank’s adverse case puts Brent at USD 105 and food prices 12% above their own baseline, past their 2022 level.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed this morning. Japan’s Nikkei is down around 0.3%, while South Korea’s Kospi is up roughly 1% after shedding 16% in October. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside ​Japan eased 0.4%.

EGX30

48,744

-1.7% (YTD: +16.5%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 55.72

Sell 55.86

USD (CIB)

Buy 55.70

Sell 55.80

Interest rates (CBE)

20.00% deposit

21.00% lending

Tadawul

9,838

-0.8% (YTD: -6.2%)

ADX

9,466

-0.1% (YTD: -5.3%)

DFM

5,771

-0.8% (YTD: -4.6%)

S&P 500

7,580

-1.8% (YTD: +10.7%)

FTSE 100

10,730

+0.1% (YTD: +8.0%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,131

-1.2% (YTD: +5.8%)

Brent crude

USD 111.96

-1.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.86

-1.3%

Gold

USD 3,902

+0.1%

BTC

USD 77,944

+0.4% (YTD: -11.0%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,142

+0.1% (YTD: +15.0%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

148.90

+0.1% (YTD: -2.0%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

19.42

+12.9% (YTD: +29.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.7% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 7.2 bn (35.2% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 16.5% YTD.

In the green: ADIB (+3.4%), AMOC (+2.2%), and Edita (+1.6%).

In the red: Palm Hills Developments (-7.0%), GB Corp (-6.9%), and Ibnsina Pharma (-4.9%).

9

BLACKBOARD

Egypt is working to revive language-school PPP, but a plot shortage is holding up the second phase

Egypt’s effort to revive its public-private partnership (PPP) language schools is waiting on plots. The program built 24 schools in its first phase in 2019, but none of the schools planned for its second phase have made the Finance Ministry’s list of PPP projects to contract by year-end, according to a copy of the list we reviewed in October. Securing suitable sites with governorates and local administrative bodies is still underway, a government official tells us.

The second phase has been six years in the making, and was launched in October 2020, when the Education Ministry invited prequalification for 98 language schools. Last November, Finance Ministry Central PPP Unit Director Atter Hannoura described a smaller 54-school framework, with investor prequalification due by 1Q 2026. The target has since risen to 57 schools, he tells us, though that prequalification round has yet to take place, the official says.

The revival will start small. Rather than wait for sites for every second-phase school, the finance and education ministries are “changing the pace of execution, and starting with available plots before expanding gradually as new ones are secured,” Hannoura tells us.

Plots are what the state brings to the model, granting them on a 30-year usufruct, while the investor finances, builds, and runs the school (aimed at middle-income families) before it reverts to the Education Ministry. The first phase of schools opened under that model in 2020, Hannoura said in July, according to Al Mal.

The program lost some of its plots while it stood still. Progress stalled after “a string of economic changes pushed construction costs above the estimates in the tender documents,” the official tells us. In that time, some governorates moved plots earmarked for schools to other projects, while some administrative bodies in those governorates failed to hand over the sites they had agreed to provide, the official says.

The Finance Ministry aims to reach 800 PPP language schools by 2030, Hannoura tells us. The Education Ministry is targeting up to 600 schools under a separate partnership program, the official says, though it has not announced which schools that program covers.

The Education Ministry is studying handing more existing state schools to private operators to run under its rules and supervision, widening the model beyond the official international and German schools Emerald Education oversees so more private players can join, the official tells us. It handed the management of 33 official international schools, state schools that teach international curricula, to Emerald under a December 2025 agreement, keeping their annual fee increases capped at 7%. It was also reviewing offers for around 40 national schools, a government official told us in January, and no handover has been announced since.

One operator welcomes the proposal. “Operating existing schools could lower investment costs by sparing investors the price of plots, a heavy burden as prices rose and with limited space outside residential blocks,” Al Omran International Schools Group Chairman and Private School Owners Association member Saber Omran tells us. He describes it as an out-of-the-box idea raised about two years ago and says handing over complete schools “could help restore investor appetite for building new ones.”

Private School Owners Association Chairman Badawy Allam sees hurdles on both tracks. Handing over state schools could face practical difficulties and raise public concerns about how those schools are run and the services they provide, he tells us. For new PPP schools, state-set tuition and a fixed 30-year usufruct — compounded by rising construction costs — could make some projects economically unfeasible for investors, he adds. Investors have asked to extend that term to 50 years, a government official told us in December 2024.

A call for cheaper plots: Allam wants the state to offer school sites at low prices or at no cost under clear rules to lower investment costs. He’s also calling for a review of the General Authority for Educational Buildings’ requirements on per-student space and courtyards in residential blocks. Those rules are separate from the minimum plot size for private language schools, which the government cut to 1.2k sqm from 2.5k sqm in 2024. A review would allow more schools to be built and reduce class density, he says.


NOVEMBER

2 November (Monday): Banque du Caire shares to begin trading on the EGX.

5-7 November (Thursday-Saturday): ICA Annual Conference 2026, Cairo.

6-8 November (Friday-Sunday): Global Entrepreneurship Festival, JW Marriott Hotel, New Cairo.

7-10 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT Forum, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo.

10 November (Tuesday): Cityscape Egypt Forum, Cairo.

14 November (Saturday): Rolling mills’ Administrative Court challenge.

16-17 November (Monday-Tuesday): World Economic Forum’s (WEF) first dedicated business meeting in Egypt + MENA, New Capital.

DECEMBER

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Food Africa, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

11-12 December (Friday-Saturday): ISER International Conference, Cairo.

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

17-20 December (Thursday-Sunday): MacTech Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Agri Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

29 September - 2 October (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape Egypt Exhibition, Cairo.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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