🌍 Headlines this year have reported an alarming number of natural disasters across the globe: twin earthquakes measuring over magnitude 7 in Venezuela last June; damaging earthquakes in California, Japan, Colombia, and Indonesia, all within the span of two months; catastrophic Nepal-China flash floods last week; deadly flash floods in Texas; wildfires in Canada, Indonesia, and Western Europe; and sweeping heatwaves across Europe and beyond.

Based on this picture alone, it’s easy to feel like 2026 has been a particularly stark year for Earth — one in which our planet seems to have turned on us. You may have even started to wonder: Is the planet truly experiencing an unprecedented run of natural disasters, or does it only feel that way because we’re seeing more of them, more often?

The answer, as it turns out, is a little more complicated. One thing we can say with some certainty is that this year’s unusually strong El Niño has played a part. But Super El Niño is only part of the picture. There’s an elephant in the room that’s becoming harder to ignore: human-caused climate change, with carbon emissions looking straight back at us.

Why so many earthquakes?

This summer has seen an especially large number of massive earthquakes — nearly 11 so far in populated areas, not to mention the 5.6-magnitude quake that rattled us awake here in Egypt in early August. While that might sound dangerously high, especially given the damage they’ve caused, the figure is actually just below the normal annual average of 15-18, according to The Independent. It’s just that this time, the earthquakes aren’t happening in remote areas or in the middle of the oceans, where they usually occur without much notice. Magnitude 7 earthquakes happen more often than we think — roughly every three to four weeks, according to HuffPost — but most are simply unfelt or cause little to no damage.

A typical active year actually sees around 20 major earthquakes. This year? 17 or 18 are expected by year-end — a number that is “a little high, but not unusual.” But why are they happening in such quick succession? Are any of these earthquakes connected? These are all valid questions.

Turns out it’s just a cruel coincidence — there is no apparent connection between them. All of the earthquakes reported so far have occurred in different tectonic plate boundary zones and geological environments. Large earthquakes can trigger smaller ones in nearby areas and cause aftershocks, like what happened in Venezuela, but that kind of seismic ripple effect certainly doesn’t happen on a global scale.

On the seismological front, you can rest assured that we’re not seeing any irreversible or out-of-the-ordinary patterns — at least for now. Californians, though, are out of luck: geologists have long anticipated a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake along the San Andreas fault, saying we’re due for “The Big One.” But that’s all outside the bounds of climate change — just the Earth doing its own thing.

A Super El Niño super-charged summer

Super El Niño has been setting off alarm bells in the climate world — forecast to be the strongest such event since 1950. It’s driving some of our current erratic climate patterns and contributing to extreme weather conditions. A recent study published in the journal Science shows that the past 40 years have witnessed 36% stronger El Niño events than those before the industrial revolution that set pollution in motion — and overall 16% stronger than those that took place in the 20th century and the thousand years before that.

So, is Super El Niño the cause? No — years of human-caused climate change are. Super El Niño is itself part of a climate system being reshaped by rising global temperatures, acting as an accelerator of already destabilized weather conditions rather than the root cause. And this is hardly a new reckoning: climate scientists and activists have been pointing fingers at our continued fossil fuel burning for decades. Though a direct causal link has yet to be established, rising carbon emissions are the most likely culprit behind a stronger El Niño — raising concerns that this level of intensity could become the new normal.

Not so “natural” disasters anymore

The compounding crises we’re experiencing right now are exactly what scientists have warned could happen as climate change intensifies. Research from the National Academies of Sciences has laid it out: some of this year’s extreme weather events are directly linked to climate change. Even more unfortunate is the fact that we’ve already temporarily breached the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels — and this year, we’re seeing just how striking the consequences can be.

Exhibit A: heatwaves and wildfires. The years 2015-2025 were the hottest 11 years on record, with July this year tying with July 2024 as Earth’s warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Now that we’re already in September, it’s safe to say most of us were not spared from the extreme heat. Europe alone has endured four heatwaves since May, with the continent warming at roughly twice the global average rate. Japan and South Korea also saw record-breaking heat at the start of August, while Africa and Asia both recorded their warmest July on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

And what do these extreme temperatures trigger? Wildfires. The conditions we’re seeing — hot, dry weather combined with drought and low humidity — are increasingly primed for large, high-intensity wildfires. That helps explain the bn-USD wildfire losses in LA, the raging forest fires in Canada and the resulting massive smoke haze across the US northeast and midwest, the unprecedented wildfires in Algeria this August, and the rare fires across Spain, France, and the UK fueled by Europe’s sweeping heat domes. Many of these events would have been impossible in a pre-industrial climate — one not yet ruined by fossil-fuel greenhouse gas emissions — according to studies by World Weather Attribution.

Exhibit B: droughts and rainfall. India is experiencing its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with below-average rainfall as El Niño continues to intensify. Central America, western Pacific nations, and tropical South America are also facing below-average rainfall. Extreme rainfall is another serious side effect of pollution-driven global warming — warmer air holds more moisture, meaning more water is available to fuel heavy downpours. Texas suffered through a deadly “thousand-year” rainfall event in July that led to devastating flash flooding. Southern Africa also witnessed heavy rainfall at the start of this year that led to cyclones and widespread flooding.

Exhibit C: floods, landslides, and glacial events. Researchers are already investigating how climate change may have contributed to the disastrous flooding that swept through communities along the Nepal-Tibet border last week. The flood was triggered by a massive collapse of ice, rock, and earth in the mountainous region, sending a torrent of debris and water downstream. Because the region is warming rapidly — part of a wider phenomenon known as elevation-dependent warming — glaciers are retreating at an accelerating rate, while permafrost, the ice that acts like glue holding rocky slopes together, is degrading, according to New Scientist.

Scientists are increasingly concerned that rising temperatures and destabilizing glaciers could make such disasters more likely — even challenging the idea that we can still call many of these events purely “natural” disasters, as the link between rising CO2 emissions and worsening climate extremes becomes harder to ignore.

The economic toll

Natural catastrophes are projected to cost the global economy USD 450 bn annually, the Financial Times reports, with 62% of these losses currently uninsured. For a clearer picture, the 2025 Myanmar earthquake caused around USD 12 bn in economic damage but saw less than USD 100 mn in insured losses. The 2025 LA wildfires, meanwhile, caused USD 65 bn in insured losses.

In the US, major private ins. carriers are responding to these mounting risks by reducing coverage, raising premiums, or completely exiting high-risk states like California and Florida, essentially dumping the economic burden back on individuals and governments.

In a fairer world, some argue that the countries most responsible for climate change should help foot the bill — which is essentially the thinking behind “loss and damage,” an international climate policy adopted here in Om El Donia’s Sharm El Sheikh during COP27, aimed at providing financial support to poorer, climate-vulnerable countries that are bearing the brunt of a crisis they have contributed relatively little to creating.