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Tuesday, 15 Sep 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
Startup Watch
A Message From Visa
Trade
A Message From Auc Onsi Sawiris School Of Business Executive Education
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Going Green
Calendar

MNT-Halan readying blockbuster IPO of Egypt unit

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Today at a glance

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

MNT-Halan’s local arm secured a temporary EGX main-board listing.
2

Startup watch

Synapse Analytics raises USD 13 mn in a Partech-led Series A funding round.
3

Trade

Pharma is targeting USD 1.6 bn in exports by end-2026.
4

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd will move four more Gemini joint container services back through Suez Canal.
5

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

FinMin plans Oct-Dec return to international debt markets with Eurobonds, sukuk, and Panda bonds.
6

Also on our Radar

Emaar Misr signs EGP 14 bn in construction contracts for Marassi Red Sea.
7

PLANET FINANCE

Private equity on track to underdeliver for investors.
8

Going Green

Egypt wants more funds for reef conservation, but can’t say where existing fees went.

Tuesday, 15 Sep 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
Startup Watch
A Message From Visa
Trade
A Message From Auc Onsi Sawiris School Of Business Executive Education
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Going Green
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

MNT-Halan’s local arm secured a temporary EGX main-board listing

Good morning, wonderful people. It’s shaping up to be a very big news week indeed.

UP FIRST- Fintech giant MNT-Halan is readying a blockbuster IPO that we expect will be the largest offering to hit the EGX in years. The most boring of regulatory procedures at the EGX wrapped yesterday, setting the stage for an offering that market insiders have been eagerly awaiting.

WATCH THIS SPACE- Are ties between Cairo and Riyadh warming? Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected in Cairo today to meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. The sit-down comes as Saudi forces exchange fire with Yemen’s Houthis. El Sisi is also meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who’s in town for a two-day visit.

ALSO THIS MORNING: We’ve got stories from two very different Egyptian businesses — one writing code in Cairo, the other making drugs for the world — who are asking the same question: Can we marshal the capital we need to go global?

One of them got its answer, and it came from Paris. Cairo AI company Synapse Analytics just got a boost from a Paris-based VC and our friends at Algebra Ventures, among others, closing a USD 13 mn round that the company’s CEO tells us will give him three years of runway to build product and expand across the GCC, Africa, and Latin America.

Egyptian pharma players, meanwhile, are still waiting for their ship to come on. Companies in the industry say they have the demand lined up in export markets. What they don’t have is readily available credit built for how the sector actually spends: buying raw materials, manufacturing, and stockpiling inventory before the export revenue comes in.

^^ We’ve all of this and more, below.

Introducing HALN.CA

The Egyptian arm of MNT-Halan lined up approval yesterday from the EGX for what looks set to be a blockbuster IPO that’s being closely watched by investors well beyond Cairo. Shares of MNT Tech Holding for Financial Investments will trade on the big board under the ticker HALN.CA.

MNT-Halan has been on the road in recent months testing market appetite, making in-person and virtual stops in the Gulf, London, the United States, and beyond. One investor we spoke with in late summer described the early look presentation as “very compelling.”

We expect the transaction to hit the market soon. Bloomberg reported in June that the company was eyeing an IPO as early as this year, though its plans could change. The EGX listing committee gave MNT until mid-March to complete the transaction.

SOUND SMART- Only the Egyptian unit is going public. The parent company that also owns arms in Pakistan, Turkey, and the UAE will remain private. Our friends at EFG Hermes have the mandate to manage the transaction and have been joined by Citi. They were pitching investors on a valuation of up to USD 1 bn for the Egypt business when they first started testing the waters back in June.

OUR TAKE- This is exactly what the EGX needs. The market had a great 2025 and was up just north of 30% YTD as of yesterday’s close — but the party has been dominated by retail and institutional investors from Egypt. Outside of a few big moves on existing market darlings (cf: ADQ taking a big stake in CIB back in 2022), international institutional investors have largely sat on the sidelines. They need a big listing in a compelling name to draw them back.

REFRESHER- MNT filed its listing application last week. The company says it has disbursed funding worth more than USD 15.5 bn and serves over 8 mn customers across micro, SME, consumer, and nano lending, payments, and more recently brokerage and a real estate fund. The parent company reported a USD 1.4 bn valuation in June on the first close of a round led by Al Ahly Capital, the first time a commercial bank has taken equity in the business.

Don’t expect a full exit for some early investors: Anyone holding at least 10% at listing — or whoever replaces them on the shareholder register — has to hang on to 51% of their stake for a lock-up that lasts at least two financial years.

Morning Drive just turned one! And we’re celebrating with new artwork and a few guest appearances. Listen to today’s episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Anghami.

Morning Drive is your daily download of the essential headlines shaping Egypt. A condensed version of the newsletter in audio form. Hosted by ‘Synthetic Salma’ — an AI-powered version of our own executive editor, Salma.

Suez, cautiously

Shipping lines Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will reroute four more of their Gemini joint container services — AE5, AE11, AE12, and ME2 — through the Suez Canal instead of around the Cape of Good Hope, according to a statement from Maersk.

The comeback timeline: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd first routed their joint AE15 service back through the canal in July, before the Danish liner returned its MECL and WAF6 services the same month. The two carriers then shifted their AE19 Gemini service back through Suez last month. This is now the largest single chunk of the Gemini network to move back at once — previous returns came one or two services at a time.

But the Cape isn’t being retired just yet: Maersk said any further changes to the Gemini network will remain dependent on stability in the Middle East and the absence of renewed escalation — the same contingency the carriers laid out when they first started moving services back through Suez earlier this summer. In the past few days, Houthi forces seized the port of Mokha and key islands in the Bab Al Mandab Strait, tightening their grip on the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The group said non-Saudi shipping remains safe — but the advance shows how quickly the security picture can shift.

They’re not alone: MSC will resume westbound Suez Canal transits on its Indusa service connecting India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, the USA, and Mexico, continuing a partial restoration of the route across a number of East-West loops, according to a statement. Eastbound cargo routes will maintain their operations via the Cape of Good Hope.

Back to the global debt market

The Finance Ministry is weighing a return to the international debt market between October and December, tapping foreign funding aimed at narrowing the financing gap, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM. Last week, the cabinet approved measures under the ministry’s FY 2026-27 issuance plan, targeting some USD 3 bn of international bonds — a mix of conventional and “innovative” instruments, plus credit-guaranteed panda bonds — to be executed as investor demand and market conditions allow.

What comes first remains undecided: “It’s not clear yet what the first issuance will be, as we’re working on several diverse international issuances at once — Eurobonds, sukuk, and panda bonds — which by nature take time,” the source says.

The lean is toward cheap money. Concessional and semi-concessional external finance is set to make up 66-72% of total external borrowing this year, against 28-34% from pricier capital-market bonds like Eurobonds, per a ministry strategy EnterpriseAM has seen. The diversification targets new markets and low-cost, long-tenor instruments, such as development-bank-guaranteed issues.

The backdrop: The ministry is managing some USD 7-7.5 bn in external debt obligations and amortizations this fiscal year, the source says — between USD 4-4.5 bn in concessional development loans and about USD 3 bn in maturities on conventional bonds, sukuk, and panda bonds.

The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is less than a month away — and here’s some of what’s shaping up on the agenda:

  • Where AI fits on the list of topics keeping CEOs awake at night
  • What AI means for your company, your team, your job, and your family
  • What’s the AI opportunity for Egypt
  • Building the AI infrastructure

Join us on 5 October in Cairo. Attendance is by invitation only, and seats are filling up quickly.

Request your invitation here.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s a touch hotter today in Cairo, with a high of 36°C and a low of 23°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’ll be a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 32°C and a low of 23°C.

The big story abroad

AI-linked stocks around the world dropped on Monday after industry leaders warned of potential dire consequences of rapid AI development. Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped to a six-week low driven by a chip stock selloff before paring losses to 0.4%, while the Dow shed 152 points. Nvidia slid 3.4% — weighed down by its sheer market size — despite soaring income driven by AI chip demand.

More climate cuts: The Trump administration will cut Biden-era climate rules limiting greenhouse-gas emissions from power plants by forcing coal- and gas-fired power sites to use technologies like carbon capture. The Environmental Protection Agency — which stands to save more than USD 300 bn through the measure — argued that global greenhouse gas harms are too remote and uncertain to tie to US power plants, placing them outside Clean Air Act authority.

East-West mineral race: The Pentagon will acquire a near-20% stake in Elmet Group through a USD 450 mn investment, expanding the Trump administration’s push to secure critical mineral supplies outside China. The move aims to boost domestic manufacturing of tungsten — a key metal used in military hardware — and expand long-term access to feedstock, sending Elmet's shares surging up to 55%.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We look into the USD 45 mn Egypt is asking donors for reef conservation — and why it can’t yet say where the fees it already collects have gone.

Tags:

A strategic partnership shaping the next chapter of the Red Sea

Somabay and MARAKEZ come together in a landmark partnership, marking MARAKEZ’s first entry into Egypt’s Red Sea market and a significant step forward in the continued evolution of Somabay.

2

Startup watch

Synapse Analytics raises USD 13 mn in a Partech-led Series A funding round

Cairo-born AI firm Synapse Analytics raised USD 13 mn in a Series A funding round led by Paris-headquartered tech investment company Partech, with our friends at Algebra Ventures also participating alongside Silicon Badia, according to a press release (pdf). The round is fully priced, drawn down in a single tranche, with no earlier instruments converting into it, co-founder and CEO Ahmed Abaza (LinkedIn) tells EnterpriseAM, and takes total capital raised to USD 17 mn since 2018.

The fresh capital gives Synapse at least three years of runway, Abaza tells us. Proceeds will go toward hiring, product development, and expansion across Africa, Latin America, and the GCC — where the company already has a presence, he adds.

IN CONTEXT- This lands two years after Synapse last tapped investors, having raised USD 2 mn in July 2024 in a round led by Silicon Badia and Abu Dhabi’s Hub71, with proceeds earmarked for GCC and Africa expansion. Before that, there was a USD 2 mn pre-Series A in June 2022 led by Egypt Ventures, with Cloudera co-founder Amr Awadallah and Africa Platform founder Simon Rowlands participating.

Two early backers took money off the table in the process. One fully exited at roughly 4x its investment, and another sold around half its stake, Abaza says, declining to name either. One is a listed company, he adds.

Partech and Silicon Badia hold board seats, joining Awadallah on a board Abaza says has existed since the company’s first outside investment.

Silicon Badia wrote a check just big enough to avoid dilution — no more, no less — leaving its stake roughly where it was before the round, Erass Majdoubeh, a partner at the firm, tells us. Strong demand made allocations a central negotiation point, he explains. Writing a larger check would have eaten into the ownership that Partech and Algebra needed. “We sized to protect the syndicate, not to maximize our position.”

A hard-won close

Investors struggled with a company whose only asset is code, Abaza tells us. The round took nine months from first conversation to signature. “Most of the companies we spoke with were scared to touch us,” he says, describing pressure to show physical assets or a balance sheet, alongside a broader nervousness about which software businesses were going to be eaten by AI darlings Claude Code and Codex by OpenAI. The conventional wisdom was that globally scalable software companies came out of Silicon Valley or Seattle, not our part of the world.

The hesitancy wasn’t just about software built in this region, Majdoubeh tells us. “It was investors underwriting the country instead of underwriting the business,” he says. Enterprise software sold to regulated banks carries long procurement cycles and a gap between the day a contract is signed and the day it starts billing. “If you’re looking at a spreadsheet from the outside, that lag reads as underperformance. If you’ve sat on the board for two years watching contracts convert, you know it’s a sequencing feature of selling to banks, not a demand problem.” Closing this information gap took up much of those nine months.

It’s an ongoing problem for the whole sector. Egyptian startups raised just USD 142 mn in 1H 2026, down 29% y-o-y, according to a Magnitt report seen by EnterpriseAM. Synapse’s check may not show up in that column at all, with the company now incorporated in ADGM, Abu Dhabi’s global financial center.

The quiet before the close

Synapse spent the first six years selling machine-learning operations tooling across more than a dozen industries before narrowing to risk decisioning for regulated lenders, Abaza says. The company stayed in stealth for roughly a year and relaunched in early 2025, growing revenues 5x over the following 12 months and entering seven markets across three continents. The same platform now runs in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Mexico, and Guatemala.

More than 50 institutions are live on the platform, up to of which 24 are Egyptian, but Egypt now accounts for 47% of revenue against 53% from everywhere else. Cumulative lending decisions through the platform passed USD 200 mn over roughly two years and have since gone further, Abaza tells us.

The buyers already exist

Silicon Badia’s base case is a sale to a strategic buyer rather than a listing, with potential investors stretching well beyond the region, Majdoubeh says. Credit decisioning and risk infrastructure are consolidating, with credit bureaus, core banking vendors, and risk platforms all needing coverage in markets they can’t build out on their own, which is the gap an asset like Synapse fills. “That is not a speculative buyer list. It is a list of companies that are actively acquiring,” he says.

Synapse isn’t ruling out an IPO, Majdoubeh says, but it’s a conversation for later, at a different scale of business. “We don’t underwrite to an exit route. We underwrite to whether a company becomes the default infrastructure in its category. Get that right and both doors open,” he explains.

Synapse already knows which category it wants to be the default in. Abaza wants his firm to be what Salesforce is to customer relationship management (CRM) — “an AI operating system for financial institutions” across developed and emerging markets, he tells us.

BACKGROUND- Synapse joined Hub71 in 2023 and is now incorporated in ADGM, with the Egyptian business sitting underneath. In September 2025, it tied up with Saudi open-banking firm Lean Technologies to sell into Gulf lenders, though Abaza says Synapse enters markets directly first and adds partners later to help it deepen its footprint within the market.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Ahmed Abaza will be joining us at the EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum: The AI Edition on October 5. Request your own invitation here.

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This publication is proudly sponsored by

3

A MESSAGE FROM VISA

Every fintech demo starts after the hard part

Open the app, scan the code, tap to pay — the demo usually begins with someone already inside the system. In this episode of Access Tomorrow, Leila Serhan, Visa’s senior vice president and group country manager for North Africa, Levant and Pakistan, sits down with Amna Usman Chaudhry, financial economist and frontier technology leader, to talk about everyone before that moment: people without reliable internet, usable digital identity, credit history, collateral, or enough trust to bring their money into the formal system.

Chaudhry is interested in the pre-demo work. That means digital identity, regulatory sandboxes, alternative credit scoring, low-connectivity product design, data bias, and women entrepreneurs still asked for collateral they were never positioned to own.

The episode keeps one eye on the next leap. AI, blockchain, stablecoins, quantum security, and autonomous finance all enter the conversation through the same practical test: can finance become more advanced without becoming harder to access?

That is the reason to watch. The conversation does not worship the app. It asks the sharper question behind it: who actually gets to participate when finance goes digital?

Watch the full episode of Access Tomorrow, presented by Visa, here.

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4

Trade

The pharma industry is targeting USD 1.6 bn in exports by end-2026

The pharma industry is targeting around USD 1.6 bn in exports by the end of 2026, up from some USD 1.3 bn in 2025, Pharma Export Council head Mohy Hafez tells EnterpriseAM. This follows expansion into new markets and more competitive local products, with exports reaching USD 550 mn through May.

The government wants USD 3 bn by 2030: The domestic market is growing at a c. 15% CAGR — nearly double the global average according to a cabinet statement — while exports increased by around 20% y-o-y in 2025. Exports are expanding “vertically and horizontally,” Hafez says — deeper into existing markets and into new ones, with a growing push into Latin America, Central Asia, and Africa.

The market-access lever: The Egyptian Drug Authority (EDA) has joined a multilateral mutual-recognition framework with seven other African countries — Ghana, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe — to fast-track the registration and manufacturing of Egypt’s drugs. The mechanism, signed in June 2025, lets all eight WHO ML3-rated regulators rely on each other’s scientific assessments.

The push is helped by Egypt’s WHO Maturity Level 3 status — achieved for meds in December 2024 and vaccines in March 2022. Eight African countries now hold ML3 for meds, but Egypt is the only one rated ML3 for both meds and vaccines registration. “These agreements can save companies at least a full year of procedures, alongside cutting the costs tied to registration, manufacturing, and export,” Hafez says. EDA has signed 18 MoUs with counterpart regulators globally — including with Brazil, South Korea, Turkey, and others — to ease market access for local pharma products.

BUT- Financing is the sector’s biggest growth constraint, according to Hafez. Pharma faces forced pricing but gets no tailored financial tools. A government-backed 15% interest initiative — with the Finance Ministry subsidizing part of the cost — is positive, he says, but falls short: it’s capped, covers only fixed assets, and excludes working capital. That’s exactly what pharma companies need to buy raw materials, manufacture, and stockpile inventory before export revenue comes in.

ALSO- Domestic pricing does not directly affect export pricing, Hafez says. Exported drugs are priced according to each target market’s rules and negotiations — except to Saudi Arabia, which links its import price to the domestic government-set price.

The problem — and the solution: Egypt applies compulsory pricing domestically for social reasons, keeping some drug prices low. That makes exporting to Saudi Arabia — which pegs its acceptance price to Egypt’s local price — economically unviable. The EDA’s “simulation decision” fixes this by letting companies register products at a new, export-appropriate price when the domestic price is too low to allow economic export.

What’s next: Hitting USD 1.6 bn means a steep second half — exports were at USD 550 mn through May — and getting there rests on the financing gap. Hafez is pressing the Finance Ministry and the EDA to build tools aimed at working capital and operating costs — the piece the current program leaves out — and whether they deliver is what decides how fast exports actually climb.

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5

A MESSAGE FROM AUC ONSI SAWIRIS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS EXECUTIVE EDUCATION

The business behind the game

A live match is also a media product, a sponsorship platform, and a commercial asset. The Sports Sponsorship and Media Certificate covers sponsorship strategy, media rights, and value creation across sports platforms. Participants learn to build data-driven sponsorship proposals, negotiate and measure partnership ROI, and manage media and broadcast operations at live sports events. The two-month blended program runs live online and on campus, with the next cohort beginning 7 November 2026.

Applications close on 18 October 2026. Apply here.

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6

Also on our Radar

Emaar Misr signs EGP 14 bn in construction contracts for Marassi Red Sea

Emaar Misr handed EGP 14 bn in construction contracts to Rowad Modern Engineering and Innovo Group to build residential units under the first phase of its Marassi Red Sea project, according to a press release (pdf). Rowad will build 675 villas and townhouses across roughly 150k sqm in the Infinity Beach zone, while Innovo will take on around 220 villas across roughly 100k sqm for Island Living. The units in this first phase are set for handover in 2029.

What the first phase looks like: The two villa packages join an earlier EGP 5.7 bn contract (pdf) that Emaar already awarded to Arabian Construction Company for 32 residential buildings (750 units) around the project’s marina. That brings the tally of signed contracts for the first phase to around EGP 20 bn so far.

The project behind the numbers: Marassi Red Sea is a 2.4k-feddan integrated resort on the Red Sea coast, about 30 minutes from Hurghada International Airport. Emaar Misr and Saudi-owned Citystars Properties (via its Golden Coast affiliate) signed the EGP 900 bn development agreement in September 2025. The masterplan (pdf) calls for 12 luxury hotels, three marinas, 500-plus retail and dining outlets, swimmable lagoons, and the Marassi Wonders entertainment zone. Phase 1 sales have already topped EGP 80 bn, according to Chairman Mohamed Alabbar, and Phase 2 is now on the market.

Four years, zero revenue

Banque Misr is moving to liquidate its Misr for Sukuk subsidiary after the company failed to generate any revenue since its incorporation in late 2022, with the central bank’s July 2026 directive requiring banks to secure prior approval before participating in sukuk issuances compounding the challenges, Asharq Business reports, citing two unnamed sources. The company is expected to put the liquidation proposal before its general assembly this month, then work through the regulatory steps.

About the company: Misr Sukuk was set up with EGP 10 mn in capital, with 80% owned by Banque Misr and the rest split evenly between Nasser Social Bank and the National Investment Bank. The Financial Regulatory Authority greenlit the company in March 2023, licensing it to issue sukuk.

IN CONTEXT- Banks are facing tighter guardrails around sukuk since July, when the central bank told lenders they need its approval before taking part in any sukuk issuances — part of a broader push to rein in bank exposure to non-bank financiers. Those restrictions made it even harder for Misr for Sukuk to operate, one of the sources said.

Impact capital incoming

Germany-based impact investor Finance in Motion wants to add some USD 30-50 mn to its Egypt book by year-end, Regional Director Mohamed Morsy tells Al Borsa, taking the firm’s 2026 disbursements in the country to USD 50-70 mn. The money will come through two vehicles it advises: Sanad, which provides capital to financial institutions for small-business on-lending, and the Green for Growth Fund, which finances clean energy and efficiency projects, Morsy says.

Three non-bank lenders are already under review — one in consumer finance, one in SME lending, and one in microfinance — after the firm backed Beltone Leasing and Factoring and Tasheel last year. Finance in Motion has also been lending directly to corporates rather than through intermediaries — which have historically made up some 90% of its book — since 2024, when Sanad put USD 4.5 mn into crop trader Capital Agro in its first direct transaction here.

A family car from the van maker

General Misr — Chinese automaker Shineray’s exclusive agent in Egypt — plans to begin local assembly of the SWM G03F family car in 1Q 2027, Al Mal reports. Assembly will take place at Advanced Transportation Group’s (ATG) plants in the 10th of Ramadan Industrial Zone, where General Misr currently builds Shineray vans, with a dedicated 40k sqm factory planned for the same zone. The move expands General Misr beyond the Shineray X30 van, X30 Cargo, and T-Series pickup — its current lineup — into the passenger car segment.

IN CONTEXT- General Misr said in November 2025 it would import the G03F and a second SWM model — the G05 — through mid-2026 before shifting one to local assembly in 2H 2026. The timeline looks like it has slipped to 1Q 2027. The company said it moved roughly 2k Shineray vans in 2025 and is targeting 3.5k units in 2026, with a USD 20 mn investment behind a planned capacity of 5k vehicles a year. It’s also studying joining Egypt’s Automotive Industry Development Program (AIDP) (min. 10k units/year required) and plans to export to Africa.

Why it matters: This is Shineray’s first passenger car push in Egypt and will face intense competition from other Chinese manufacturers here — BYD, MG, Chery, Changan, and Geely — which already assemble locally and captured 37-38% of Egypt’s passenger car market in 2025. If General Misr prices the G03F competitively and hits its AIDP production targets, Egypt could become Shineray’s African export hub. The Chinese parent is planning four African assembly plants.

Fawry goes clinical

Fawry-DMS integration incoming: Fawry partnered with DMS, a software provider for healthcare, financial, and industrial companies, to integrate Fawry Business POS terminals directly into DMS’ medical management systems, according to a press release (pdf). Under the integration, a transaction entered at a hospital cashier’s screen sends the amount straight to Fawry, and once payment clears, the status updates automatically back in DMS’ system, cutting out manual re-entry between the two.

REMEMBER- Fawry was already in the healthcare game. In May, Fawry Healthcare-TreMed became the market’s first third-party healthcare administrator, which is an operational middleman between patients, healthcare providers, and ins. companies — managing claim processing, provider networks, and ins. paperwork.

More on our radar

  • Gold trading platform iSagha is launching Khazna, a new product enabling consumers to buy gold and silver in amounts as small as 1 mg, with zero manufacturing fees and the option to cashout into bank accounts or request physical bullion delivery. (Hapi)
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7

PLANET FINANCE

Private equity on track to underdeliver for investors

The boom of pre-2022 has well and truly worn off for private equity, and funds are likely to fall short on the returns promised to investors, experts and investors tell the Financial Times. Geopolitics, overvaluations, and investor pressure are all squeezing an asset class in a four-year downturn.

Where it began: The PE boom can be traced back to the period between 2019 and 2021, when the low interest rate environment of the post-2008 era met with a wave of financial stimulus packages on the back of the pandemic. The result was a record-breaking 2021, as the value of buyout transactions doubled and broke the USD 1 tn ceiling for the first time.

Now, it’s a very different story. The investment class has been in a four-year downturn, and between two-thirds and 90% of funds that started in that era are now falling short of their targeted returns, the sources said. Last decade, PE averaged returns of 25% of net assets to investors. Now, that figure is less than 15%.

The pinch is also coming from two sides: speed and values. The internal rate of return measures how much and how quickly a fund delivers its returns. One top executive expects funds that deployed capital between 2019 and 2021 to land at an average IRR of just 7-8% once all is said and done. The majority of firms aren’t likely to meet their IRR targets at all, according to Advent’s Managing Partner James Brocklebank, while two other fund investors see IRRs settling in the low double-digits — well below the typical high-teens target after fees.

That tracks with what we’ve noted so far, and shows the strain isn't confined to the West: PE and VC exits slowed to USD 2.7 bn in MENA in 1H — a fraction of the USD 386 bn Bain estimates buyout funds exited globally over the same period — putting 2026 on track to record the lowest exit value since 2017, despite private equity transaction values outpacing last year’s figures so far at USD 8.6 bn for 1H.

The current exit strategy (or lack thereof): Industry executives said during the IPEM conference that many funds aren’t selling yet, hoping to avoid the hit to returns in the current environment.

Pressure is also mounting from investors: They aren’t willing to sell out at a reduction but are also calling for more liquidity, Summation Capital’s CIO Roger Vincent says. For now, the sector looks increasingly stuck between a rock and a hard place.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed in early trading, with Japan’s Nikkei up 0.4% and South Korea’s Kospi flat. Wall Street equities dropped as comments about AI safety concerns from tech leaders sparked a sell-off in Nvidia and chip stocks.

EGX30

54,797

-1.6% (YTD: +31.0%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 51.79

Sell 51.93

USD (CIB)

Buy 51.79

Sell 51.89

Interest rates (CBE)

19.00% deposit

20.00% lending

Tadawul

10,878

+0.1% (YTD: +3.7%)

ADX

10,118

+0.1% (YTD: +1.3%)

DFM

5,977

+0.6% (YTD: -1.2%)

S&P 500

7,620

-0.5% (YTD: +11.3%)

FTSE 100

10,698

+0.4% (YTD: +7.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,260

-1.0% (YTD: +8.0%)

Brent crude

USD 106.97

+1.2%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.88

-0.5%

Gold

USD 4,327

-0.6%

BTC

USD 78,047

+1.5% (YTD: -11.0%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,114

+0.1% (YTD: +12.2%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

149.33

-0.2% (YTD: -1.7%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

17.10

+8.0% (YTD: +14.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.6% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 13.2 bn (13.8% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 31% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+8.7%), Heliopolis Housing (+1.5%), and Mopco (+1.1%).

In the red: GB Corp (-4.4%), Emaar Misr (-3.7%), and Misr Cement (-3.5%).

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Our weekly deep dive into the green economy and ESG issue in Egypt.

Published every Tuesday in EnterpriseAM.

Read going Green
8

Going Green

Egypt wants USD 45 mn for reef conservation from foreign donors but can’t say where existing fees went

Egypt is asking foreign donors to help pay for reef conservation, while sitting on a decades-old fee system it has never fully accounted for. The government launched the Egyptian Fund for Coral Reefs (EFCR) in June 2026 — a donor-dependent blended-finance vehicle built to draw USD 45 mn from foundations and private investors on top of USD 5 mn in seed capital from the Egyptian Red Sea Initiative. Egypt has charged divers entrance fees at its marine parks for years, with revenue explicitly earmarked for conservation — and it’s not clear where those funds went.

SOUND SMART- Blended finance combines public or philanthropic money with private capital in one structure. The public money absorbs early risk or covers work that doesn’t generate revenue, which makes the private capital more willing to invest.

Why it matters: A 2023 UNDP Biodiversity Finance Initiative (BIOFIN) review (pdf) shows roughly EGP 222 mn and USD 2.2 mn were collected in protected-area entrance fees during FY 2022-23 alone. That money flows into the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency’s Environmental Protection Fund — individual parks have little direct control over their proceeds, per the review. The figure covers Egypt’s national protected-area network; the review doesn’t publish a Red Sea-specific breakdown.

Two pots, two jobs

The EFCR is structured around two facilities with two different jobs. The fund pairs a grant facility — for conservation and catalytic capital that de-risks early investment — with an investment facility aimed at commercially viable, reef-adjacent businesses chasing returns, according to the Global Fund for Coral Reefs.

The distinction matters when counting the money: A USD committed to an investment that must generate a return has a different job from a USD awarded as a conservation grant. For anyone assessing the fund, the headline capital target is therefore only the starting point — the breakdown between the two facilities will determine what activities it can actually support.

Governance needs its own safeguards, according to International Climate Finance Center CEO Noha Shaker, who contributed to ERSI’s initial design discussions. What is required is “a governing board where the majority of seats sit outside the government, a chairperson who isn’t official, offices independent of any ministry, and a charter that narrowly defines what the fund can spend money on so it can’t drift from its mission,” Shaker tells EnterpriseAM. That structure matters most on the investment side, where the fund is about to bankroll businesses well beyond the reef itself.

Defining “reef-positive”

UNDP’s plans for the investment facility go well beyond the reef itself. Community ecotourism, organic-waste upcycling, aquaculture, a business incubator, improved reef monitoring, and upgraded moorings to reduce damage from tourism vessels are all on the list, according to the Global Fund for Coral Reefs.

A waste-management business is the clearest example of how the model is meant to work: customers pay for the service, giving it commercial revenues, while better waste handling reduces the pollution pressing on reefs. Investors are financing a business whose operations help conservation, with the reef itself benefiting indirectly rather than generating repayments.

Finding business worth backing is itself a constraint: The fund needs a credible pipeline of businesses capable of attracting financing and delivering measurable environmental benefits. The proposed incubator is intended to help prepare that pipeline, including by helping existing businesses change their practices, according to the same Global Fund for Coral Reefs report.

The incubator needs to prove the business case, Shaker says. “Its first cohort needs to generate real, verifiable evidence — actual revenue, actual reef-linked outcomes — that can be shown to outside investors.” Businesses should be tested through smaller financing instruments, including recoverable grants and revenue-sharing agreements, before larger investments follow, Shaker argues.

Shaker’s proposals target new revenue streams. Conservation work has no paying customer, which is exactly why it depends on public accountability rather than investor appetite. Monitoring a reef benefits an entire destination; enforcing protected-area rules protects businesses that never contribute directly to the cost.

The monitoring system needs to precede major investment: “Build the monitoring system in parallel with the fund, not after it,” Shaker says, recommending establishing ecological baselines and financial tracking before large-scale capital deployment, with supported businesses required to demonstrate measurable benefits for reefs.

South Sinai’s protected areas face real gaps: limited research capacity, a shortage of specialized marine and coastal-management staff, and no continuous reef monitoring, lecturer of marine ecology at Al Azhar University Kareem Farouq Darweesh tells EnterpriseAM. “Monitoring, field staff, enforcement, equipment, maintenance, and day-to-day management all require continuous funding,” Darweesh says.

That raises an allocation question alongside the fundraising one: The review does not establish that fees could cover every conservation need, or that redirecting them to the EFCR would improve matters. However, it does show why the discussion needs to cover how existing revenue supports protection, alongside how much new capital can be raised. “The new fund should complement direct funding to protected areas rather than replace it,” Darweesh says.

Tourism-linked payments could provide recurring income: Shaker proposes digitally collected diver and snorkeler fees flowing into the EFCR, alongside contributions from hotels and tour operators benefiting from healthy reefs. None of that solves the deeper design problem: matching the right kind of money to the right kind of work.

A return for the reef

The EFCR’s edge is to connect two different financing needs. Private capital can support viable businesses that reduce environmental pressures, while grants can finance protection whose benefits are shared more widely. The success of one should strengthen the other — but that connection needs to be designed, funded, and measured.

For the tourism sector, this is an asset-maintenance question: The reef’s condition matters to the destination built around it. Financing environmentally better businesses is useful, but maintaining the ecosystem on which their value depends requires an ongoing spending plan.

OUR TAKE- Merging visitor fees into the EFCR isn’t the only option. Fees could stay in the existing system while the EFCR funds new work, or a share could flow to the EFCR directly — either way, someone needs clear ownership of what gets paid for. Egypt already collects EGP 222 mn and USD 2.2 mn a year in park fees. The EFCR’s USD 45 mn target only means something once we know which pot is paying for what.

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CALENDAR

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

28-29 September (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Mining Forum, St. Regis Hotel New Capital.

30 September - October 3 (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

OCTOBER

5 October (Monday): The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

10-11 October (Saturday-Sunday): Egypt Women’s Health Summit (EWHS), Cairo Marriott Hotel.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): IEX Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

NOVEMBER

6-8 November (Friday-Sunday) : Global Entrepreneurship Festival, JW Marriott Hotel, New Cairo.

8-11 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT Forum.

DECEMBER

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Food Africa, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

4Q 2026: Banque du Caire IPO.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Agri Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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