Egypt to import 15 mn barrels of crude on supplier credit in 4Q

The Oil Ministry plans to import about 15 mn barrels of crude in 4Q 2026, 8% more than a year earlier, and pay for it through supplier credit, Al Arabiya Business reports, citing an unnamed government official. The shipments will cost USD 1.4-1.5 bn as regional tensions keep oil prices high, which works out to roughly USD 93-100 a barrel, by our math.

The shipments are back-loaded. Deliveries are planned at 6 mn barrels in October and 4.5 mn in each of November and December, the official said. They will be sourced from Saudi Arabia, Libya, Greece, and other markets, with state oil company EGPC paying through short- and medium-term credit facilities, they added.

Refining more at home is how the government plans to cut its fuel import bill. Local refineries cover 70-80% of fuel demand, and imported products make up the rest, the official said. Refinery utilization rose to more than 80% from 66%, Oil Minister Karim Badawi said in September. The ministry wants to cut petroleum product imports, excluding gas and crude, to USD 3.6 bn this year from USD 6.2 bn in FY 2025/26 while putting the refinery upgrade bill at USD 4.5 bn. A government official told us at the time the overall refining and petrochemicals target is USD 5.2 bn.

The shift from fuel to crude imports already shows in the trade data. Crude imports rose by USD 1.9 bn in FY 2025/26, while oil product imports fell by USD 1.2 bn. Natural gas drove most of the rise in the oil import bill, up USD 4.7 bn, and the oil trade deficit widened 31.5% to USD 18.3 bn. Domestic crude is recovering slowly: output is at about 527k bbl / d of crude and condensate, against roughly 449k bbl / d without the measures led by paying foreign partners' dues, and the ministry targets 750k bbl / d by 2030, Badawi said at Egypt Forum last week.

The other half of the balance

US producer Apache plans to connect five new wells in its Western Desert concessions in 1Q 2027 at a total investment of around USD 30 mn, adding about 70 mmcf / d, which is equal to 12.7% of its current Egyptian output of 550 mmcf / d, Asharq Business reports, citing an unnamed government official. A well at the Tarek field adds 12 mmcf / d in late January, wells at Abu Gharadig, Tarek, and Salam add 35 mmcf / d in February, and Tarek and Salam add another 23 mmcf / d in March.

The additions are small against the decline they are meant to offset. The same official puts natural depletion at about 120 mmcf / d a month, so the five wells cover a little more than half of one month’s losses, against average demand of 6.2 bcf / d that peaks near 7.5 bcf / d in summer. The ministry is separately targeting nearly 330 mmcf / d of new supply by year-end, most of it from Zohr and West Mina. But these wells are a near-term patch. The biggest new gas volume on Egypt’s horizon comes from Cyprus.

The long-dated gas

Eni signed the main engineering, procurement, construction, and drilling contracts for its Cronos field offshore Cyprus on Monday, moving the project into execution with first gas targeted for 1H 2028 and a plateau of up to 500 mmcf / d, it said in a statement. The contracts were expected to total USD 1.3-1.8 bn, The Wall Street Journal reported ahead of the signing, citing people familiar with the matter.

The gas will travel by subsea pipeline to Zohr’s processing facilities, then through a 40-km onshore line to Damietta for liquefaction and re-export to Europe. But that gas is not destined for the country’s grid: Cairo is renting out idle processing and liquefaction capacity, taking a transit role rather than adding molecules to the local market.

We looked at what it would take to revive the upstream sector in our Signature Series in September.