Black Sea disruption is reshaping Egypt’s corn imports toward Brazil, not the US

US corn is poised to gain ground in Egypt this season as disruptions in the Black Sea squeeze Ukraine out of one of its main markets, a recent S&P Global Commodities report argues, citing Egyptian importers. However, the traders we spoke to are skeptical it will play out this way. Ukrainian corn has indeed all but disappeared, as Egypt hasn’t taken a shipment since May, well off its usual October-March peak, per LATT shipping data. But so far the gap is being filled by South America. No local importer bought US corn through the first half of September, and according to Mediterranean Star Trading GM Hesham Soliman’s tracking data, “100% of the arrivals during this period were Brazilian.”

REMEMBER- Grain shipments from Ukraine are taking more than a month to be delivered, up from around 12 days, as vessels spend weeks waiting to enter and exit the Danube River through the Sulina Canal. Ukraine rerouted its exports through the river after Russian attacks effectively blocked its main Black Sea ports, which previously handled around 90% of the country’s grain exports. The situation deteriorated sharply after Russia targeted riverbank infrastructure. “I see no role for Ukrainian grain until this conflict is resolved, be it wheat, corn, soy, or even oil,” Soliman tells EnterpriseAM.

Why it matters: Egypt’s massive structural feed deficit leaves it heavily reliant on imports, with corn imports projected to reach 10.5 mn tonnes in 2026-27. Corn accounts for 60-70% of local meat, poultry, and fish feed components, so any supply-chain friction directly threatens the livestock ecosystem. Domestic yield covers less than 40% of demand and remains too small to offset the country’s import bill, leaving feed mills exposed to global price swings and FX volatility.

Traders are split on how far that shift goes. As of 15 September, Ukrainian corn comprised just 8% of Egypt’s total corn imports this year, against 2% for the US, a gap the S&P report’s importers expect to narrow as buyers diversify away from a supplier whose shipments have effectively stopped. One Egyptian buyer said Ukrainian corn could be “wiped out” from the market if the Black Sea situation doesn’t ease, while a Cairo-based buyer was more cautious, saying he doesn’t expect US corn to fully replace Ukrainian imports over the coming months.

The hesitation comes down to pricing, logistics, and FX volatility, not appetite: While US corn quality is comparable to that of Ukrainian origin, Soliman tells us that US suppliers are currently pricing themselves out of the market. “Unless they adjust their prices, no Egyptian importer is going to resort to the US over Argentinian or Brazilian corn,” he says. Local buyers of Ukrainian corn typically work with small vessels carrying around 30k tonnes, and matching that shipment size from the US would make freight costs and landed prices far less competitive. Pricing structure adds another layer of friction: Ukrainian corn is sold at a flat price, giving buyers clear cost visibility, while US corn is priced at a premium over CBOT futures, exposing buyers to both the premium and futures-market swings. S&P Global Platts assessed Ukrainian corn FOB POC at USD 226 / tonne for October loading against USD 251.28 / tonne for US corn FOB Gulf Coast on 16 September.

Freight rates and currency risk pile on. Recent spikes in Brent crude have sent small-vessel Black Sea freight rates soaring from USD 50 / tonne to USD 130 / tonne within 60 days. “Freight rates have become lethal,” Soliman says, noting importers also face currency risk given recent US Federal Reserve rate hikes and EGP volatility: “With the EGP fluctuating, hot money exiting, and the USD climbing, longer transit times just mean higher risks on document settlement.” Beyond immediate pricing friction, Soliman notes that timing is already heavily stacked against US exporters. “We are almost two months away from the Christmas holidays, when trade almost effectively shuts down, and one of those months is spent entirely at sea.”

And feed mills lean the other way. “Local feed mills are heavily focused on Brazilian and Argentine origin because their quality is much better,” Soliman says. For US origin to break in, he says, exporters must come in EGP 500-600 per tonne below Brazilian and Argentine prices.

Washington’s export push is real. Under several trade campaigns to expand international markets for US farmers, Washington has negotiated tariff reductions and expanded market entry across global destinations — from Brazil to Indonesia, Taiwan, India, and Vietnam, among other Asian countries. Egypt fits the pattern: our imports of US agricultural and food products jumped 50% to USD 2.3 bn in 2025 (up from USD 1.49 bn in 2024). While US soybeans led that surge — accounting for USD 1.75 bn as local crushing capacity recovered — yellow corn made a strong comeback, generating USD 152.81 mn on 712k tonnes imported and establishing a foothold for US suppliers as Black Sea shipments lag. But that foothold, built last year, is exactly what has stalled this season on the pricing and freight math.

South America as Egypt’s dominant corn source: Brazilian and Argentine corn together made up 88% of Egypt’s 2026 corn imports as of 15 September (60% and 28%, respectively), with roughly 1.3 mn tonnes more of Brazilian corn expected by 15 October. That tracks with what we reported in June, when Soliman put Brazil’s share of Egyptian corn inflows at 51.4% through mid-May, with Argentina at 17.8% and Ukraine at 17.5% — meaning Ukraine’s slide from that level to today’s 8% has moved fast, even as the structural shift toward South American supply predates this year’s Black Sea disruptions.

Egypt has been building for that shift: The National Project of Silos expanded to 81 silos nationwide by 2025, lifting storage capacity from 1.5 mn to 3.6 mn tons with a target of 6 mn tons by 2030 — capacity built partly on the assumption that Black Sea supply would stay unreliable. That same logic is now showing up in diplomacy: a Suez Canal Economic Zone delegation was in São Paulo this week discussing a dedicated grain logistics and distribution hub, ahead of a Brazilian trade mission expected in early December — a push to formalize Brazil’s role as Egypt’s top corn supplier, according to a statement.

IN CONTEXT- This is the latest step in a push we’ve been tracking since 2024, when seven Brazilian investors first began feasibility studies for a logistics zone to handle corn, soybeans, and sugar for regional re-export. It’s an effort Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty tried to revive on the sidelines of May’s BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi as part of a broader pattern of grain-hub diplomacy that includes parallel talks with Russia and Belarus to anchor Egypt as a regional grain re-export point after the 2022 Black Sea disruptions.