BdC’s updated valuation study has been approved by a cabinet committee, marking a step closer to IPO

Good morning, folks. We’ve got three stories to kickstart the week, one about a macro surprise, another on our friends at Beltone Venture Capital closing three agreements, and a third on a regulatory fix for non-banking lenders.

The inflation number is the lead. Urban inflation came in at 14.5% in August — below the forecast from analysts and the CBE’s own guidance that 3Q would bring a temporary pickup. Food fell for the third straight month, offsetting the electricity tariff increase, while core inflation edged up slightly. The next CBE meeting is set for 24 September, and the August data hands the committee a dovish data point it wasn’t expecting.

Beltone VC is closing three agreements — fintech, proptech, and consumer finance — and plans to launch an EGP-denominated startup fund by 1Q 2027. Exits are paying for the moves, including one from a local portfolio company that is at final signing. Another exit is in the works — a Moroccan holding is under a potential acquisition that would return 3x the original investment in under 18 months.

And on credit reporting: Non-bank lenders must now report financing events to I-Score as they happen, closing a gap where a borrower’s credit file could lag reality by weeks. The move was already in the works before the Global Paradigm unauthorized-financing case, but the timing suggests the case sharpened the urgency to address the problem.

Morning Drive just turned one! And we’re celebrating with new artwork and a few guest appearances. Listen to today’s episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Anghami.

Morning Drive is your daily download of the essential headlines shaping Egypt. A condensed version of the newsletter in audio form. Hosted by ‘Synthetic Salma’ — an AI-powered version of our own Executive Editor Salma El-Saeed.

Another gate swings open

Banque du Caire (BdC) has cleared another checkpoint on the way to the EGX. A cabinet committee set up under the 2025 state-ownership law to vet pre-offering valuations has unanimously approved the methodology behind BdC’s updated fair-value study, according to a cabinet statement. The refreshed study runs off the bank’s 30 June 2026 financials — which showed consolidated net income up some 22% y-o-y to EGP 8.94 bn and deposits above EGP 443 bn — updating an earlier version based on end-2025 numbers that the committee discussed in March. It cleared review of its evaluation methodologies, financial assumptions, growth, and discount rates, with the Financial Regulatory Authority signing off and independent advisor Baker Tilly presenting the work.

Adopting the valuation opens the way to roadshow rounds once the private placement among investors, banks, and international institutions is secured, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. The state is now eyeing a sale of around 40%, though Banque Misr will set the final size once the roadshow lands, the official says. The offer date is still under discussion, pointing to a November-December window; the reported fresh price tag came in at EGP 80-80.5 bn, up from around EGP 78 bn in the 2025 financials.

REFRESHER- BdC first hit the auction block in 2007, and has been through multiple attempted IPOs since 2019, with the state signaling a year-end offering for months. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Finance Corporation are circling a combined 10% stake in the state-owned lender’s upcoming float.

Switching on a desert grid

Karm Holding will start up an independent solar network in Dakhla, New Valley, before year-end, CEO Ahmed Zahran tells EnterpriseAM. The initial investment is USD 19 mn for the solar plant, battery storage, and grid infrastructure — enough to power 200k feddans of farmland.

Meanwhile, Zahran met with governor Hanan Magdy to discuss a broader New Valley plan covering Kharga, Dakhla, and Farafra that could reach USD 700 mn, at no cost to the governorate, Zahran says. He adds that the USD 700 mn isn’t a fixed commitment: “There is no set total figure for the volume of future investments, because the scale of the expansion will depend on how large the area grows and how much power it needs going forward.”

Why it matters: The early build gives KarmSolar a head start on the electricity-wheeling program. The Egyptian Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency (EgyptERA) has already qualified the company to participate — generating power in the desert and selling it across the national grid to B2B customers outside the New Valley, Zahran tells us. The program launches in 2027; the Electricity Ministry and the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company started laying the groundwork in 2024.

REMEMBER- This is the same playbook Zahran told us about in July at South Sinai’s Abu Zenima, where Karm is building an off-grid solar microgrid to unlock a stalled industrial zone, with plans to connect to the grid and wheel solar in once demand clears EgyptERA’s 30 MVA threshold.

What’s next: Beyond energy, the plan includes Karm Holding’s global HQ in the New Valley, an eco-resort, and a solar-focused applied-technology school, plus converting industrial secondary schools in Kharga and Farafra into dual technical-education schools, per Zahran.

Ten steelmakers, eight licenses

The Industrial Development Authority closed applications last week for eight licenses that would add 2.8 mn tons a year of local billet capacity — four at 500k tons each, four at 200k — with 10 companies in the running, two government officials tell EnterpriseAM. Ashry Steel applied for two licenses — a 200k-ton and a 500k-ton license, Chairman Ayman El Ashry tells us.

IN CONTEXT- The tender follows through on plans the government first outlined in February and announced in August. Before that, the government had frozen the licensing process to conduct a trade-remedy review, which ended with a 13% anti-dumping duty on imported hot- and cold-rolled steel. The whole push has been over two years in the making, meant to produce more raw materials locally instead of burning through foreign currency with imports, Metallurgical Industries Chamber Director Mohamed Hanafi told us last February.

The pull is a local billet shortage. Demand for the licenses reflects a market starved of domestic supply after the Investment Ministry imposed anti-dumping duties on imported billet, idling rolling mills and delaying deliveries, a Metallurgical Industries Chamber source tells us. Local billet prices rose after import duties restricted access to the foreign alternative, and duties reached 16.2% of cost, ins., and freight value — no less than EGP 4.6k per ton. Billet imports jumped 10x over five years to 1.7 mn tons, costing the state USD 1 bn annually in foreign currency.

The 200k-ton tier is oversubscribed — with ElMarakby Steel, Watania Steel, and Ashry Steel among the bidders — so the authority will have to choose, the chamber source says, adding that the 500k-ton tier drew exactly four applicants. Market leader Ezz Steel isn’t among them, according to the source. Ezz Steel told us in April there is no shortage, but that Egypt suffers from a supply glut, arguing the country’s 13.3 mn-ton capacity is enough to absorb roughly 9 mn tons of domestic demand annually.

What’s next: The authority will now vet the bids and pick winners under the tender terms. New capacity is likely two years out, the chamber source says — landing roughly when the anti-dumping duties are due to expire. The government has been weighing extending those duties for up to three more years amid pushback from downstream manufacturers.

Developer debt under microscope

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) ordered banks last week to compile data on all loans and credit lines given to real estate projects, including identifying which ones are behind on payments and how much of each loan has actually been used. The CBE wants to know each project’s facility value, how much of that has been drawn, and whether the money went where it was supposed to, a credit chief at a private bank said. Another banker said the CBE asked for a closer look at the 15 largest developers, their loan amounts, and project completion rates.

Banks have already begun complying, a government bank’s corporate lending head confirmed. The news from the central bank comes after the Egyptian president’s August directive for a government committee to inspect real estate projects nationwide following complaints from buyers about delayed handovers and contract terms.

Why this matters: The CBE wants to know how much bank credit is tied up in a sector where the headline numbers hide real strain. The country’s top 10 developers posted EGP 670 bn in gross contracted sales in 1H 2026, but unit sales fell 3% to around 39k. The three biggest listed developers — Talaat Moustafa, Sodic, and Palm Hills — saw their contractual sales drop 6.4% to EGP 338.6 bn in 1H 2026. Talaat Moustafa Group alone held EGP 180.4 bn in deferred checks for undelivered units in 1Q 2026.

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PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another warm and humid day in Cairo, with a high of 35°C and a low of 23°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little bit cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 31°C and a low of 23°C.

The big story abroad

Several AI-related stories get top billing today, chief among them is that OpenAI’s IPO — which could potentially be valued in USD tns — will not take place this year. CEO Sam Altman has cited safety-related concerns around the technology. Altman also hinted that OpenAI and other top firms may soon announce a joint pact to slow AI development and address rising safety risks.

Fellow chiefs agree: Altman and Elon Musk echoed AI safety concerns following a blog post by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who warned that current risks are too high to sustain rapid development — a sentiment triggered days after an employee cited a greater than 10% chance AI could destroy civilization.

In other AI news: JPMorgan Chase terminated its lending relationship with hedge fund Situational Awareness after its AI wagers led to the largest loss in the sector’s history. Led by wunderkind investor Leopold Aschenbrenner, the firm avoided total collapse this summer by offloading most of its public-market positions to multinational hedge fund Citadel.

Another high-stakes AI position: Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison axed plans to sell up to USD 7.5 bn worth of shares in the database giant in a U-turn by the world’s seventh-richest man. Ellison’s company is facing rising market pressure over its massive wager on AI. To alleviate balance-sheet pressure tied to investments in companies like OpenAI, the cloud tech firm cut thousands of jobs, racking up USD 2.8 bn in costs related to layoffs.