Urban inflation rose to 14.9% in July, its first pickup since March

Egypt’s annual urban inflation sped up to 14.9% in July, its first acceleration since March — but it came in below the 15.6% that a Reuters poll of analysts had predicted, according to Capmas data. The pickup reverses three straight months of cooling — 14.9% in April, 14.6% in May, and 14.3% in June — and puts the rate right back where it stood in the spring.

The jump is almost entirely a base effect, not fresh price pressure. Urban prices were flat on the month — 0.0% against June — as food and beverages fell 0.6% m-o-m and a 2.4% drop in recreation and culture offset rises elsewhere. What lifted the annual figure was the weak July 2025 reading dropping out of the 12-month comparison, not households paying more in July.

Utilities and services are still carrying the annual rate. Housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel were up 41.2% y-o-y — the steepest of any category — with transport up 24.5%, education up 18.7%, and household furnishings up 17.9%. Meanwhile, food inflation has cooled to 8.0% y-o-y, under a fifth of the housing figure. On the month, furnishings (+1.6%) and housing (+0.7%) led the few gainers.

The bigger picture is a stall. Urban inflation averaged 14.1% across 2025 and is running near that now — a plateau far below the 38% peak of 2023, but one it has been stuck on for months.

Why it matters for the 20 August MPC meeting: A flat monthly rate and a softer-than-feared headline give the Central Bank of Egypt room to hold rates again at next week’s meeting — one of four meetings left this year, on 20 August, 24 September, 29 October, and 17 December. The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut by 100 bps in February, to 19% on the deposit rate and 20% on lending, then held at each of the three meetings since.

What’s next: A roughly 12% electricity-price increase introduced in late July has yet to filter through and will land in August’s reading, just after the rate call — adding fresh pressure on top of a housing-and-utilities category already running above 40%, and an argument against resuming cuts in the near term.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)