Fuel costs are making Gulf airlines rethink how long to keep older jets flying

The fuel shock is starting to eat into the extra life airlines squeezed out of older aircraft. In recent years, delivery delays at Airbus and Boeing made almost any usable jet worth flying, even one that burned far more fuel than its replacement. Fuel is now set to account for 31.4% of airline operating costs this year, up from 25.4% in 2025, according to IATA, and that trade-off is getting harder to justify.

DATA POINT- Global jet fuel averaged USD 192.44 / bbl last week, according to IATA’s fuel monitor. IATA expects prices to average USD 152 / bbl over the full year, up almost 70% from USD 90 in 2025.

Fuel has made aircraft scarcity more expensive. Keeping an inefficient jet flying made sense when the alternative was no jet at all, but higher fuel prices raise the penalty every time it takes off, Richard Maslen, head of analysis at CAPA – Center for Aviation, tells EnterpriseAM. The question is shifting from whether a replacement can be found to whether the existing aircraft is still affordable to run, he adds.

New jets are still slow to arrive

Replacements aren’t coming any faster. Airbus delivered 72 aircraft in September but still needs a record 4Q to hit its full-year target of roughly 870 aircraft, after engine shortages and other industrial problems weighed on production. A separate quality issue with the A321neo has pushed at least 20 deliveries into 4Q. Boeing’s 777-9 is about seven years behind schedule, and Emirates now expects its first one in 2Q 2027.

Gulf carriers are reaching different answers

Qatar Airways is retiring its older widebodies. The carrier retired its remaining passenger A330s last month, as higher fuel costs sped up plans to phase them out, Reuters reported. The A330s made up around 7% of its passenger fleet as of March, and the airline expects 138 new aircraft over the next five years. The timing helped: regional disruption had already cut its capacity by 10%, which left less flying to cover in the near term.

Emirates is spending to keep its older jets in the air. With its 777-9s years late, the carrier is putting USD 5 bn into a retrofit program, covering 219 A380s and 777s, and had completed 100 by July.

Those jets can still pay their way. On busy routes, a full A380 spreads its higher fuel bill across more passengers, so its cost per seat can still compete, Wouter Dewulf, professor of air transport management and economics at the University of Antwerp, tells EnterpriseAM. The A380s and 777s are also deeply embedded in Emirates’ network, and the money already spent on retrofits gives the airline more reason to get several more years out of them, he adds.

Saudia is renewing its fleet as it grows. The Saudi flag carrier took its first A321XLR in May, the first of 15 on order, and plans to receive 12 new Airbus aircraft this year. The A321XLR burns about 30% less fuel per seat than previous-generation aircraft, according to Airbus, which gives Saudia a more efficient option on some longer routes that would traditionally need a larger widebody.

Fuel alone doesn’t explain the different choices. Each decision depends on a carrier’s aircraft-specific financial and maintenance data, Sindy Foster, principal managing partner at Avaero Capital Partners, tells EnterpriseAM. Qatar could withdraw its A330s because other aircraft can cover the flying, while Emirates can keep large older jets busy on dense routes, she says.

Airlines have more options than the scrapyard

Retirement doesn’t have to come first. Older aircraft can move to seasonal flying, peak periods, backup duty, or routes that can carry their higher costs, and airlines can cut frequencies before a jet leaves the fleet, Foster argues. Owners can also break an aircraft up and sell its engines and parts when those are worth more than the jet could earn by flying, she adds.

Age on its own says little about whether a jet pays its way. An owned 777-300ER with freshly overhauled engines can have very different economics from the same model on an expensive lease with a major engine overhaul coming up, Dewulf says. Ownership or lease costs, remaining maintenance life, how often the jet flies, fuel hedging, seating layout, premium revenue, and route economics can all change the answer, he adds.

BOTTOM LINE- “The case for renewal is getting stronger,” Foster says, but every aircraft still needs a full comparison of fuel, maintenance, financing, revenue, delivery timing, and its eventual resale or parts value. “Fuel prices sharpen those decisions; they do not produce one answer for every aircraft.”