Better than it feels

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: US opens Global Entry fast-track program to Saudi citizens

Good morning, friends, and happy almost-THURSDAY. We’re fast approaching November, which is effectively the end of the year, and it’s cause for some reflection on what has unfolded in 2026 so far — and especially where we are eight months into the regional war.

For starters, those lamenting a freeze in the project market in Saudi Arabia might need to give their glasses a good cleaning. On Meed’s account, the market is on track to close the year with a very modest gap compared to 2025 — a remarkable feat for a year like this one, even if the industry’s own read is far more negative. Both views can be true at once: disruption is hitting margins, schedules, and the nerves of the people managing them, rather than the award total being tallied.

In other corners of the economy, the theme is paying now for capacity that brings in money later. The National Company for Learning and Education grew enrollment and revenue at a healthy clip while profit lagged both, held back by financing costs on land it has taken in Riyadh and Jeddah for schools that have yet to open.

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All clear

Saudi citizens are now eligible for the US Global Entry program through the Trusted Traveler app, according to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP). The program offers expedited clearance at US airports for preapproved, low-risk international travelers. Applicants must pass US and Saudi vetting and complete a CBP interview. Membership is valid for five years and includes TSA PreCheck for eligible domestic flights.

Open for (teen) business

Fifteen-year-olds will be able to open their own businesses with permission from a guardian, custodian, or court, after the Cabinet approved a new Commercial Transactions Law, according to the Commerce Ministry. The law regulates commercial activities, traders, businesses, contracts, and commercial paper and replaces three statutes: the Commercial Court Law, the Commercial Papers Law, and the Commercial Books Law.

Steady hands

Opec+ is set to hold its December output targets steady when the group meets on Sunday, Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. About 2 mn bbl / d in production cuts covering most members are staying in place through the end of 2026.

GCC exports are recovering, but output is still below quota: GCC countries have been boosting exports, yet most are pumping well under their targets. The regional disruption pushed Gulf producers below their quotas even after Opec+ completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 mn bbl /d supply cut. Regional exports averaged 17.3 mn bbl / d so far in October, up from 16.4 mn bbl / d in September and 16.9 mn bbl / d in the two months before the war.

War Watch

Saudi air defenses intercepted three ballistic missiles aimed at the eastern region and four drones fired toward the south, according to statements from the coalition, after the Houthis said they struck Ras Tanura, the Kingdom’s main crude export terminal, according to Reuters. Civil defense issued brief warnings in Najran, Abha, and Khamis Mushait.

MEANWHILE- A Turkish parliamentary committee approved the defense agreement committing Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to treat an armed attack on any of them as an attack on all three as part of the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement signed last August, The Associated Press reports. That comes a day after Egypt agreed to authorize the “necessary measures” to support the Kingdom in defending its territory.

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The big story abroad

The US is discussing business incentives with Russia and Ukraine to help bring the war to an end. Russia could see US energy companies return through an offshore project near Sakhalin and the resumption of Russian oil exports to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline. Other proposals include reopening Russian airspace to US airlines and joint work on titanium, a key element in aviation. Ukraine would get a plan to attract long-term investments. The US aims to advance these ideas, together with postwar security guarantees for both countries, at tripartite talks in Abu Dhabi next month, the first since February. US officials stress that none of the deals will go ahead while the war continues.

The leaders of Finland, Norway, and Russia held a rare call yesterday, exposing divisions in Europe over who should talk to the Kremlin. The call ran 90 minutes instead of the planned 20. They used it to pass messages to Russia about future peace talks, as Europe seeks a role in the peace process. But Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the move was “not coordinated with the rest of us,” and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson warned that going solo risks splitting Europe’s united voice.

France is offering students concessions to end weeks of unrest. The government has promised to replace the Parcoursup university admissions platform by 2028, with an overhaul coming first. It also promised up to EUR 4 bn in loans for school renovations, 15k extra higher education places, smaller classes, 500 new teaching jobs, and increased grants. Protesters have planned further demonstrations, and much of the plan will fall to President Emmanuel Macron’s successor after next year’s election.

Saudi Arabia’s projects market is on course to roughly match last year’s even as most of the industry says conditions have gotten worse

Saudi Arabia’s projects market has spent 2026 defying the mood of the people building it. The Kingdom has awarded USD 76 bn in contracts so far this year, against USD 102 bn at the same point in 2025 — behind last year’s pace, but by less than a year of regional conflict, cost inflation, and supply disruption might have threatened, Meed’s head of content and analysis Edward James said in a webinar attended by EnterpriseAM (watch, runtime: 1:34:04). The business intelligence firm expects a run of awards in November and December to carry the full-year figure to USD 100 bn — “quite remarkable,” James said, “given the set of circumstances.”

That resilience is not what the industry feels. Asked how the market had performed against 2025, 70% of webinar attendees said it had gotten worse — 50% a little worse, 20% much worse — and just 8% thought it had improved. A separate poll found 94% had seen their business disrupted by this year’s regional conflict, with 30% severely disrupted.

The dip is concentrated in sectors that have already built ahead: Power awards are down 77% y-o-y to USD 4.9 bn and water down 66% to USD 3.7 bn, the steepest falls anywhere in the market. The reason is overbuilding: So much generation and desalination capacity was tendered across 2023, 2024, and 2025 that the need to award more this year has eased. Excluding utilities, the picture reverses. Construction awards have already hit USD 32 bn with two months left on the clock and will comfortably beat last year’s USD 33 bn; gas (USD 10.6 bn), chemicals (USD 6.1 bn) and transport (USD 10.3 bn) are all running ahead of 2025, with industry set to follow at USD 5 bn.

And gigaprojects, while slowed, were never carrying the market anyway. Awards reached USD 10.6 bn in 2026, and even at their 2023-24 peak, gigaprojects represented USD 31 bn of more than USD 130 bn awarded across the Kingdom in 2023, and USD 26 bn of a record USD 170 bn in 2024. The program has been shedding spending since, mainly because of the reprioritization at Neom, with The Line and Trojena pushed back. Qiddiya and Diriyah, however, are “full steam ahead,” James said, with Roshn and the Expo build-out also going strong.

But data centers have become a market of their own. Active data center projects in the Kingdom reached USD 180 bn today from USD 1.8 bn in 2023, a hundredfold jump in three years. At roughly USD 10 mn per MW, Humain’s planned 6 GW AI campus alone implies something on the order of USD 60 bn of spending. Humain, DataVolt, Khazna, and Amazon Web Services are all building.

The hardest problem for contractors this year has been cost: Most work in the Kingdom is let on lump-sum terms with no cost-escalation clause — Aramco and the big EPC jobs are the exception — which leaves contractors exposed when commodity and equipment prices move. James cited increases of up to 70% in extreme cases tied to the conflict, with local prices for rebar, copper wiring, steel and aluminum up 4-6%. Domestic sourcing of 60-70% of materials and equipment has helped cushion shipping disruptions, alongside modular construction and prefabrication. Few projects have been cancelled or halted outright because of the conflict, despite delays, he said.

The near-term pipeline gives the optimists something to point at: USD 144 bn of Saudi work is out to bid — tenders issued or bids under evaluation — within USD 349 bn across the Gulf, most of which would typically be awarded inside six months. The live list runs from green ammonia complexes, the Rabigh bottom-of-the-barrel project, steel plate facilities, solar IPPs and Jafurah Phase 5 on the energy side, to Riyadh Metro Line 7, the Asir-Jizan road PPP, King Salman Park and King Salman Airport’s Terminal 6 on construction and transport. But the list is indicative; projects may slip, be rescoped or cancelled.

Where spending will concentrate in the next two years is Riyadh, driven by deadlines for Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup. Diriyah and Qiddiya are meant to be substantially ready for the Expo, and King Salman International Airport has to be in place for both. Add Roshn and the National Housing Company — funded by off-plan sales, which insulates them from government budget pressure — and the push behind hundreds of thousands of housing units, and Riyadh holds the bulk of the near-term pipeline. The Eastern Province is the other bright spot, lifted by Aramco, while Tabuk, Neom’s province, has seen the sharpest provincial decline.

Longer out, the numbers get very large. Saudi Arabia holds USD 1.69 tn of known, planned and unawarded projects — more than the other five Gulf states combined, and ahead of the UAE’s USD 980 bn — within a record USD 3.3 tn regional pipeline. Construction dominates at close to USD 2 tn.

The 2027 question hangs on the budget. Higher defense spending could divert funds from projects. The optimistic case rests on the Kingdom’s wider financing toolkit — PPPs, export-credit and sovereign loans, bond issuances, and off-plan sales — helping sustain investment, alongside ins. covering much of the conflict-damaged infrastructure. Adding expected oil prices of around USD 115 a barrel and exports near pre-conflict levels, that could leave major producers earning more than before.

What’s next: Watch for a year-end award surge in Riyadh Metro Line 7, King Salman Airport’s Terminal 6 and the Asir-Jizan road. King Salman Stadium, the 2034 World Cup final venue, has moved to main works, while procurement has opened for the US and UK pavilions at Expo 2030, with 190 more countries to follow. Aramco Stadium in Dammam is nearly finished and Qiddiya’s is under construction. James sees the Neom stadium as the likeliest casualty among the roughly 10 venues Saudi Arabia has committed to delivering for FIFA.

AlTouq and Investcorp back Saudi fire-safety group Reda in rare inbound transaction

A Saudi-led consortium is buying into Reda Gulf Holding (RGH), with Bahrain’s Investcorp joining alongside, according to a statement. Family office AlTouq Group and Thara Future Investments lead the group, with Investcorp taking a significant minority through its USD 500 mn Saudi Pre-IPO Growth Fund. The stake size and price weren’t disclosed.

The plan is to institutionalize Reda — the Saudi fire-protection and safety group behind Reda Hazard Control — and back its next phase of growth. REDA had already been working with Moelis since last year to explore investment options.

What they’re buying: Founded in 1986, RGH is the holding company of Reda Hazard Control, which supplies fire, safety and security systems end to end — distribution, local manufacturing, installation and maintenance — to clients including Aramco and SABIC across oil, gas, petrochemicals and aviation, Bloomberg reports. It runs four manufacturing plants in Saudi Arabia and has a presence in 19 countries.

The sector bet: Fire and life safety is a quiet beneficiary of the construction and industrial build-out, pushed by two forces: gigaproject and industrial construction that has to design fire safety in from the start, and tighter rules via the updated Saudi Building and Fire Codes released in 2025.

Why the timing matters: This is among the first inbound investment transactions announced since the Houthi escalation and the postponement of the flagship Future Investment Initiative. The capital is largely regional — AlTouq is a Saudi family office active since the 1970s, Thara deploys Vision 2030-aligned patient capital, and Investcorp is a Bahrain-based Gulf manager — and it signals that long-horizon investors are still deploying through the disruption.

Investcorp has been ramping up its local investments: Reda is the fifth investment by Investcorp Saudi Pre-IPO Growth Fund LP, following Metra, NourNet, TruKKer and Salla. The Bahraini firm has earmarked USD 3 bn in dry powder for Saudi Arabia, the US, and Southeast Asia as it doubles down on real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and debt management.

NCLE’s net income rises 5.8% as enrollment grows

The National Company for Learning and Education (NCLE) reported a 5.8% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 170.1 mn for the fiscal year ended 31 July, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue grew 12.4% to SAR 739.5 mn, driven by a 10% rise in enrollment to 35.2k students from 31.9k a year earlier.

Behind the numbers: Net income lagged revenue growth as higher finance costs, Zakat charges, and lower wage subsidies weighed on earnings. Operating net income rose 8.9% to SAR 202.7 mn, while financing costs increased due to land lease contracts for the Khuzam Suburb (SAR 63.9 mn) and Dhahrat Laban projects (SAR 68.7 mn) in Riyadh, as well as borrowing costs associated with land purchases in Riyadh’s Al Rabie (SAR 35.7 mn) and Al Yasmin (SAR 39.4 mn) districts and Jeddah’s North Obhur district (SAR 27.9 mn).

Preliminary work tenders for King Salman International Stadium go live

The Sports Ministry tendered preliminary works for King Salman International Stadium in Riyadh, a 92k-seat venue spanning 660k sqm that is being developed ahead of the Kingdom’s hosting of the 2034 FIFA World Cup, according to Meed. The tender covers site preparation, enabling works and initial construction activities. Bids are due on 19 November. The stadium is expected to be completed by 2029 and will serve as the Saudi national team’s main venue and host the 2034 World Cup final.

The bigger picture: World Cup 2034 infrastructure plans include 15 stadiums across five host cities with 11 new venues and upgrades to four existing facilities. The plans also include 134 training sites across 10 other cities, comprising 73 new facilities and 61 existing sites.

Snowflake aims to invest USD 300 mn in the Kingdom

AI data cloud company Snowflake plans to invest USD 300 mn in Saudi Arabia through 2030, in collaboration with the Communications and Information Technology Ministry, according to a press release. The fresh capital will be spent on the regional headquarters, which was inaugurated in 2024, local hiring, AI skills development, expanding cloud infrastructure, and broader operations.

What’s next: The tech giant will roll out two cloud regions in 2H 2026, joining its existing Google Cloud Dammam region. The company will collaborate with the ministry to jointly deliver the One Mn Minds program in the Kingdom, aiming to upskill up to 25k learners in data and AI by 2030. It will also launch its Snowflake Academia in Saudi Arabia to help universities integrate current data and AI technologies into their curricula.

MENA debt market narrows to bigger, higher-quality issuances as volume drops

Regional conflict has weighed on MENA debt markets, with bond issuance down 10% y-o-y to USD 129.7 bn in 9M 2026, LSEG said in a report seen by EnterpriseAM. But even as the ongoing geopolitical situation has roiled markets, it’s not the only factor at play: “The decline owes more to the second-order effects it set in motion across investor sentiment, interest rates, and credit spreads,” Andreas Anthes, head of multi-asset and absolute-return strategies at Mashreq Capital, is quoted as saying in the report.

Saudi Arabia led the pack, accounting for 42% of regional bond proceeds, with the government topping the region’s issuer ranking after raising more than USD 11.5 bn through a four-tranche international bond sale. The UAE followed with 26% and Qatar 13%.

Sukuk saw the sharpest drop: Regional sukuk issuance fell 39% y-o-y to USD 34.8 bn, accounting for 27% of total debt proceeds — its lowest share in five years. Market volatility has narrowed issuance windows, while sukuk can involve more complex structuring and execution than conventional bonds.

The market narrowed to bigger, high-quality transactions: GCC bond and sukuk issuance in 3Q 2026 totaled USD 34.8 bn, down 13.5% y-o-y, with dealcount falling to 45 from 136 — but average transaction size rose to USD 773 mn from c.USD 296 mn. Higher oil prices lifted inflation expectations and yields, pushing up financing costs. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.58% at the start of 2025 to 5.31% early this month, while GCC credit spreads widened by around 60 basis points from pre-war levels. “The market has not closed. It has become more selective, favoring credit quality and penalizing weaker balance sheets,” Anthes says.

Financial institutions accounted for 47% of regional debt proceeds, followed by governments and agencies at 29%. Standard Chartered topped the bond league tables, managing USD 15.5 bn in issuance for a 12% market share. It also led regional sukuk issuance, while JP Morgan ranked second with USD 14.4 bn and an 11% share.

Renewed regional escalation remains a key downside risk. Around USD 13 bn in GCC banks’ USD-denominated debt is due in 4Q, while lower-rated issuers may have to offer higher premiums or postpone funding until 2027, Anthes explains.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian stocks traded higher today. South Korea’s KOSPI gained 3.1%, lifted by chipmakers Samsung Electronics, up 4.2%, and SK Hynix, up 5.2%. In Japan, Nikkei 225 added 1.7%.

TASI	9,986	+2.3% (YTD: -4.8%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,353	+2.2% (YTD: -2.4%)
NomuC	21,537	+1.5% (YTD: -7.6%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	50,104	+3.5% (YTD: +19.8%)
ADX	9,745	+1.1% (YTD: -2.5%)
DFM	5,864	+2.0% (YTD: -3.0%)
S&P 500	7,723	+0.6% (YTD: +12.8%)
FTSE 100	10,687	-0.8% (YTD: +7.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,165	+0.8% (YTD: +6.4%)
Brent crude	USD 113.88	-1.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.72	+0.7%
Gold	USD 4,076	0.0%
BTC	USD 80,860	+1.0% (YTD: -7.7%)
Sukuk/bond market index	891.75	+0.1% (YTD: -3.0%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	148.22	-2.8% (YTD: -2.4%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	17.52	-4.7% (YTD: +17.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 2.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 7.2 bn. The index is down 4.8% YTD.

In the green: BinDawood Holding (+10%), Qassim Cement (+10%), and Saudi Ceramic (+10%).

In the red: National Company for Learning and Education (-6.5%), Nahdi Medical (-4.8%), and Arabian Cement (-4.6%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 1.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 17.9 mn.. The index is down 7.6% YTD.

In the green: Khaled Dhafer and Brothers for Logistics Services (+18.4%), Horizon Educational (+11.2%), and Alfakhera for Mens Tailoring (+10.7%).

In the red: Alwaha REIT Fund (-8%), Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars (-6.7%), and Naf Company for Feed for Industry (-4.8%).

CALENDAR

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

DECEMBER

14-16 December (Monday-Wednesday): The Innovation Driven Water Sustainability Conference (IDWS 2026), Jeddah

2027

JANUARY

12-14 January (Tuesday-Thursday): The Future Minerals Forum (FMF), Riyadh.

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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