Good morning, friends. We’ve got a packed issue for you — and despite some doom and gloom from the IMF, we’re (very cautiously) optimistic this morning.

What gives? For starters, the EGP continues to move in ways that make sense, responding to inflows and outflows of FX. We’ve talked a lot since the outbreak of hostilities about the importance of the policy maturity that the Madbouly government has shown in the past couple of years, and this is the number-one sign that it’s real.

From the Dept. of Tooting Our Own Horn: We’re publishing later this morning the first issue of EnterpriseAM MENA+ — our new regional flagship covering trends and the flows of capital, people, and ideas across the MENA region.

What’s with the “+” in MENA+? We think one of the most powerful stories in the region is the *export* of ideas and capital not just to neighboring regions (Asia, the Stans) but to international financial centers. MENA countries are jockey for position in the new global economy now taking shape, and we’re going to shape that conversation.

MENA+ covers AI and tech — and geopolitics, the war for talent, which BSD is on top (and who’s gunning for them), the changing energy economy, new corridors to India and China, and much, much more.

Want your own copy? You can subscribe here — or just hit “reply” to this email and ask to be added to the list and we’ll take care of it for you.

EntepriseAM MENA+ is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Mashreq, the most ambitious financial institution we know in our region. We’re publishing Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 12 noon UAE / 11am KSA / 10am Egypt.

We’ve also got some interesting company news: EBRD — one of Egypt’s most reliable investors in good times and bad — is backing our friends at Hassan Allam Utilities on their cutting edge solar-plus-battery-storage facility in Benban. And Ezz Steel looks like it’s making a power move into Algeria.

Today is also the first day of the wheat harvest, and it’s a critical one: Officials are hoping good yields and fast payments to farmers will let them build stocks as international prices rise thanks to the war in the Gulf. It’s a smart move, but the challenge could pale in comparison to the one we think may be in the cards. The longer the war in the Gulf lasts, the longer the global fertilizers market is really messed up, the more likely it is we’ll face significant food shortages around the world starting late this year. Planting seasons are horribly inconvenient realities…

We also have news for you this morning of how we started the crisis with strong buffers — and why the IMF just trimmed our growth forecast.

^^ All of that and more, below.

Watch this space

EGP WATCH — The EGP strengthened against the greenback yesterday, buoyed by USD 1.3 bn in carry-trade inflows, a senior government official told us yesterday. One USD was going for 52.47 at state-owned lenders NBE and Banque Misr and for USD 52.55 at private-sector giant CIB.

Keep an eye on that USD 1.3 bn figure — it’s the biggest one-day inflow since late February, just before the outbreak of war in the Gulf. The interbank market was healthy yesterday, with some USD 475 mn in FX changing hands, we’re told.

INVESTMENT— Cairo will play host to the next Egypt-US Economic Forum in June 2026, the Foreign Ministry said after Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met in Washington, DC, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The pair also discussed the security situations in Palestine, Lebanon, Sudan, the Horn of Africa, as well as water security. The statement gave no additional color on the business summit.

INVESTMENT — It looks like Chuck E. Cheese is a rodent with ambition. Saudi Arabia’s Safari Group will invest up to EGP 2 bn to launch seven Chuck-branded entertainment centers here over the next four years, according to remarks attributed to company CEO Ali Saleh Al Sagri. Safari Group’s hospitality unit, Unique Hospitality Company, and Egypt’s PMaestro will handle management and operations.

STATE SPENDING — The Madbouly government wants you to know that it’s not backing away from its pledge to enforce tighter financial discipline, with a senior official telling us the Finance Ministry will settle some EGP 308 bn in direct borrowing and overdrafts from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) by the end of the current fiscal year.

Why it matters: The move closes the tap on the government’s direct borrowing from the CBE — a long-standing practice now curtailed under our reform program with the IMF to anchor inflation and push the state to borrow from the market. “By settling this account, the government’s total loans from the CBE will be fully settled,” our source tells us, signalling further shift toward fiscal discipline.

Where’s the money going to come from going forward? Officials have been woking up a more diversified financing mix that includes commercial borrowing, bonds and other debt instruments, and better asset management.

Sims-for-kids to boost parental oversight by late June: The Madbouly administration is looking to roll out sim cards specifically for children before 30 June 2026, according to a statement. The effort will include secure internet packages that feature parental controls and age-appropriate social media restrictions, as well as collaborating with telecom operators to provide content filtering and parental controls via home routers.

Stricter regulations on online life may also be in the cards. The administration is mulling efforts to curb electronic betting, currency counterfeiting, and digital addiction among young people.

Data point

USD 1.3 bn — that’s how much foreign energy firms are pouring into exploration across the country this year, Oil Minister Karim Badawi told the cabinet last week (watch, runtime: 11:15).

WEATHER- We’re in for a hot day in Cairo today, with a high of 33°C and a low of 20°C, according to our favorite weather app. Expect the mercury to rise tomorrow (a high of 35°C) before cooling on Friday (30°C).

It’s nice and breezy in Alexandria, with a high of 25°C and a low of 16°C.

The big story abroad

Washington’s naval blockade on Iran is still in effect and bilateral talks “could be happening over next two days,” US President Donald Trump said overnight. A major sticking point will be Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Washington reportedly proposed a 20-year “suspension” of all nuclear activity — not just a permanent ban of nuclear enrichment. Iran is holding out for a five-year suspension of work on anything nuclear.

The US blockade of Hormuz has tankers stopping or turning around, the FT notes.

Pressure on Tehran is mounting, with Washington deciding not to renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions — set to lapse this Sunday — on Iranian oil at sea, Reuters reports. The waiver has allowed roughly 140 mn barrels of oil to reach global markets.

Lebanon and Israel held their first direct diplomatic talks in decades on Tuesday in Washington, which the US State Department called a “historic milestone.” Iran-aligned Hezbollah was not represented at the sit-down and has long opposed direct talks with Tel Aviv.

MEANWHILE- US banks are breaking earnings records as 1Q financials come out. Investment banks capitalized on a volatile first quarter marked by US intervention in Venezuela and the war on Iran. JPMorgan Chase delivered its highest-ever topline figure, while Citi turned in its best quarterly revenue in a decade.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We unpack Pan-African tech group Cassava Technologies’ AI infrastructure play in a candid sit-down with Sherif Shaltout, Executive Manager of Liquid C2 MENA.