Egypt is kicking off its most critical wheat harvest in years

The national wheat harvest kicks off today, and it’s one of the most critical harvests in years as the Madbouly government looks to build a homegrown hedge against the prospect of a global food-price shock fuelled by fallout from the US-Israel-Iran war in the Gulf.

Officials are hoping to buy some 5 mn tons of local wheat by mid-August — up from purchases of less than 3.9 mn tons last season, according to a statement. To sweeten the pot, the state is offering a record EGP 2.5k per ardeb at the high end for 23.5-grade wheat — up from last year’s average prices of EGP 2.3k — with a commitment pay farmers within 48 hours of any contract closing.

Where we stand: The US Department of Agriculture — still the global expert on these matters — expects us to have a good harvest, projecting we’re going to grow about 9.8 mn tons of wheat this year, up 6.5% from last year. But we’ll still face a 12.5 mn ton import gap even with some 3.7 mn feddans under cultivation (up 600k from last year).

The war-risk math isn’t the big thing right now: The cost of imports is rising, sure: The Black Sea wheat index sees wheat futures up about 2.3% since the conflict broke out in late February, and its highest level since June 2025. Logistics and ins. costs are also driving up imported grain prices.

But the bigger shock could be still yet to come. How so? This year’s harvest is safe — it was planted before the war in the Gulf. The risk is to the next one, everywhere in the world.

The near-total shutdown of Hormuz has choked off roughly 40-45% of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade. Nitrogen prices have nearly doubled, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization is warning that if disruption persists through the Northern Hemisphere planting season (the spring wheat planting season is now, winter wheat is planted September through November), wheat yields could decline worldwide. That could see us trying to bridge a 12.5mn-ton supply gap when the rest of the world is scrambling for a much scarcer commodity.