Kouchouk again promises no new taxes

Tuesday, 14 Apr 2026

Kouchouk again promises no new taxes

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Today at a glance

Big Story Today

No new taxes as gov’t eyes expanding the tax base.

Economy

S&P Global affirms Egypt’s short-term outlook as stable.

Economy

Urban inflation accelerates to 15.2 in March, beating estimates.

Energy

Egypt claims total output of Cyprus’ Aphrodite gas field.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

EBRD is earmarking EUR 5 bn to invest in countries hit by fallout from the war — Egypt is on the list.

Construction

Contractors have a new path to Saudi housing boom.

Also on our Radar

China to build USD 2 bn aluminum hub in Egypt as regional supply shock bites.

PLANET FINANCE

Wall Street built a tool to short private credit.

Going Green

Egyptian waste tech startups want traceability to be the next big play.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Power sector deficit swells as grid fuel costs double

Good morning, wonderful people and welcome back from the extended holiday. It’s a heavy news morning, most of it macro. We have for you updates on the Madbouly government’s next budget, which carries with it the promise that businesses will be spared new corporate taxes as the Tax Authority continues its drive to widen the tax base rather than wring new revenues out of the folks it already has on file.

MEANWHILE- S&P Global Ratings affirmed Egypt’s ‘B/B’ credit rating with a stable outlook, signaling that the country built strong-enough financial buffers. It’s a welcome assessment that reflects both the buffers cabinet has built and the international community’s increasingly positive outlook on how well officials here have handled the fallout from the US-Israel-Iran war in the Gulf.

AND- The oil ministry is pushing ahead with its drive to lock in energy supplies with Gulf production still off the board amid the war. State gas outfit Egas has inked a preliminary agreement with Cyprus to purchase the entirety of the natural gas produced from the Aphrodite field. Officials recently moved to buy more crude from Libya, news that Israel may be resuming natural gas exports to Egypt, and a gas find by Eni in the Mediterranean that officials believe can be quickly bought into production.

The Madbouly government thinks it can pull off three privatization deals before the end of June, Finance Ministry Ahmed Kouchouk said at a presser on the state budget. The minister didn’t specify how many of the transactions would be IPOs and how many might be stake sales. We have more on the budget in this morning’s news well, below.

On a less cheerful note: Urban inflation accelerated to 15.2% last month, well ahead of estimates.

Watch this space

ECONOMY — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is committing EUR 5 bn this year to stabilize economies reeling from the war in the Gulf, according to a statement. Part of this support will head our way, as Egypt is designated as a key recipient in the program's second tier, alongside Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Why it matters: Unlike frontline support for countries directly affected — like Lebanon and Jordan — the funding for Egypt is specifically designed as a liquidity backstop for state-owned enterprises and a stabilizer for agrifood producers. This suggests that the EBRD is stepping in to prevent a balance-of-payment crisis from cascading into a domestic energy or food security failure.

What’s next: Expect short-term facilities for state-owned energy utilities to ensure service continuity despite the rising price of energy. Smaller and youth-led businesses could also get a shot in the arm through funding extended to banks. Look for the lender’s focus to toward the rebuilding of trade routes when and if the conflict recedes.

BACKGROUND- We reported last month that the bank was prepping a financial lifeline to Egypt and others in the region. EBRD has deployed some EUR 26.5 bn in our corner of the world (which it calls the “southern and eastern Mediterranean region” since 2012.

Data point

USD 14.4 mn — that’s how much Egypt saved in a single week through its electricity conservation drive. The savings were driven by the government-mandated rationing in April, Electricity Ministry Spokesperson Mansour Abdel Ghani told Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa earlier this week (watch, runtime: 1:36:46).

ENERGY — The cost of generating electricity nearly doubled in February and March, hitting EGP 60 bn as global crude prices climbed past USD 100 on the back of the Middle East conflict, Asharq Business reports, citing what it says are government officials. While the Finance Ministry is currently absorbing the bulk of the electricity sector’s EGP 500 bn annual deficit, more of the cost overrun will be passed on to businesses..

Why it matters:This is a direct hit to business margins. While most households remain shielded from the full brunt of the crisis, commercial tariffs spiked earlier this month by as much as 91% for initial consumption brackets.

You’re going to hear a lot in the domestic press about the “electricity sector” owing the “petroleum sector” money. That’s bureaucracy-speak “the oil ministry is now selling the electricity ministry petroleum at about 75% below cost.”

What that means for normies: Early closing mandates for retail and entertainment will stay in effect — and we’re probably going to see a push for more remote-work days to shave peak load.

Happening today

Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty is scheduled to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio by 8:30 pm Cairo time today in Washington, BBC reports. Rubio is also meeting with the Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors to the US today to discuss ending the ongoing conflict in southern Lebanon.

PSA-

WEATHER- Expect a typical spring day in Cairo today, with a high of 29°C and a low of 17°C, according to our favorite weather app. Expect the mercury to rise tomorrow (a high of 34°C) and Thursday (37°C).

It’s a bit cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 27°C and a low of 16°C.

The big story abroad

The US-Iran ceasefire is still holding after Washington started a blockade of Iranian ports yesterday and said it would seize at sea any vessel that paid a toll to Iran in return for transit through Hormuz. US and Iranian officials are reportedly pursuing a new round of face-to-face talks, aiming to reach an agreement before the two-week ceasefire lapses. Iran has offered to suspend nuclear activity for up to five years (the US is demanding 20).

Want to go deeper? The New York Times thinks Tehran is betting Washington can take less economic pain than Washington can.

From the Dept. of Whistling Past the Grave? Asset management giant BlackRock has upgraded its forecast for US equities, saying it expects the impact of the conflict in Iran to be. The firm raised its outlook a notch to overweight from neutral, arguing that there is “tangible evidence of actions” that will lead to a resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. BlackRock singled-out earnings in the tech sector as especially likely to shield stateside equities from fallout of the regional war.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We look at how local waste tech startups are pushing for a traceable and tech-driven industry.

Tags:

EBRD energy National Grid What We're Tracking Today

This Easter, nothing ends early. It simply unfolds. From sunlit days to evenings that carry on, Somabay becomes a place where every moment finds its rhythm.

The Big Story Today

No new taxes as Kouchouk looks to land wartime budget

The state budget for FY 2026-27 will aim to cut the total deficit to 4.9% of GDP, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said at a press conference attended by EnterpriseAM. The overall deficit in the current fiscal year's budget is expected to reach 6.1% of GDP and rise in 4Q due to the impact of the US-Israeli war on Iran. (The government’s fiscal year runs 1 July - 30 June.)

The key takeaway: Despite ongoing fallout from the war in the Gulf, Kouchouk is not backing away from his longstanding promise of no new taxes, instead signaling that the widening of the tax base is his top priority in the scramble for new revenues. There will be no new taxes next year, Kouchouk said in direct response to a question from EnterpriseAM.

How’s he going to do it? More of the same, really. The Finance Ministry has been pushing for more than a year now to bring more taxpayers into the system. Kouchouk wants to see tax revenues clock in at 14.4% of GDP in the budget cycle starting in July — a 1-percentage-point increase. That represents a 27% increase in tax receipts, which Kouchouk says will be possible if incentive programs bring 100k new taxpayers into the system.

BACKGROUND- The Finance Ministry has been pushing incentives including low, flat taxes for smaller first-time filers in a bid to get more businesses to enter the formal economies. Estimates over the years have suggested that the informal (read: not-tax-paying) economy is at least as large as the formal economy.

One big caveat…

The current draft of the budget was drawn up before the war in the Gulf accelerated — it has oil at USD 75 per barrel and an exchange rate of EGP 47 to the greenback. “We hope the situation stabilizes quickly to achieve these targets,” Kouchouk said, noting that flexibility has been built in by raising contingency reserves to 5% of total spending, up from 3% in the current budget.

Kouchouk is looking to bring in a EGP 5.1 tn budget (+13.2% year-on-year) and says he’s targeting a targeting a 27.6% y-o-y increase in revenues to EGP 4 tn.

Debt targets: The government aims to reduce public debt to 78% of GDP by 2027, with any exceptional revenues directed toward debt reduction. External debt is expected to decline by USD 1-2 bn annually. Critically: Debt service costs are projected to fall to 35% of total state spending from about 50% this year.

Where’s the money going?

Start bracing now for fuel costs to rise: Energy subsidies are on track to come in at EGP 120 bn next fiscal year (down from 150 bn today). Some EGP 104.2 bn of that figure will be earmarked for electricity subsidies, a 39% increase. But fuel subsidies will be cut drastically to EGP 16.5 bn from EGP 75 bn in the current budget — meaning prices will go up at the pumps at the same time as pundits expect oil prices to remain high thanks to the war.

Subsidies are set to rise 12% to EGP 832.3 bn, including:

EGP 175.3 bn for food subsidies
EGP 55.3 bn for transfers under the Takaful and Karama welfare programs
EGP 69.1 bn for to buy local wheat

The government will boost spending on salaries for public-sector employees by 21% — an increase of over EGP 100 bn, raising total spending on wages to EGP 821 bn. Health spending will rise 30% to EGP 369 bn, while spending on education will grow 20% to EGP 422 bn.

Priority industries will get more financing: The budget will earmark EGP 48 bn to support exports and EGP 25.9 bn in concessional financing for industry and agriculture. Additional allocations include EGP 5 bn in incentives for SMEs and the automotive sector, alongside continued support for tourism and hotel capacity expansion.

Egypt will renew hedging contracts for 50% of its energy needs and is exploring the potential expansion of the hedging program to other commodities, Kouchouk added. Egypt is hedging roughly 50% of its petroleum product requirements — excluding gas.

We saw this coming: Government sources told EnterpriseAM last month that the Finance Ministry had entered negotiations to not only renew existing oil hedges but also secure new contracts for wheat and other essential goods. Kouchouk’s comments effectively confirm that the ministry is moving to lock in “war risk” protections as regional volatility continues to threaten fiscal stability.

What to watch for next: The budget moves next to the House of Representatives for committee-level review.

Tags:

budget budget watch economy Finance Ministry tax TAXATION THE BIG STORY TODAY

Economy

S&P joins Moody’s, holding our rating stable

S&P Global affirmed Egypt’s sovereign credit rating at ‘B/B’ with a stable outlook, striking a “balance between Egypt’s medium-term growth prospects and strong reform momentum against renewed risks from a protracted conflict” in the Gulf, according to its latest report. The move follows a similar decision by Moody’s Ratings earlier this month, which maintained Egypt’s Caa1 debt rating and positive outlook, signaling that the structural reforms kicked off with the float of the EGP in 2024 are providing a buffer against extreme regional pressure.

Behind the rating: The agency attributed its rating to Egypt’s higher international reserves, which climbed to USD 52.8 bn as of March 2026 and a record net foreign asset position of USD 30 bn in the banking sector. Although the EGP lost about 13% of its value against the greenback since the onset of the war, the government has kept its thumb off the scale, maintaining its commitment to a flexible FX regime.

The stable outlook is underpinned by our continued commitment to an IMF-backed reform program, but S&P warns that progress is being offset by mounting external pressures. The agency flagged several triggers for a potential downgrade, including “any backtracking on key reforms — particularly exchange rate flexibility”— or a renewed widening of macro imbalances. Higher borrowing costs and limited access to international markets also remain significant risks to public finances.

S&P thinks we’re going to remain highly vulnerable to regional geopolitical shocks that could threaten inflows of foreign currency and make imports more expensive. It sees the nation’s current account deficit widening 4.8% of GDP in FY 2025-26, compared with 4.1% in its last forecast back in October. The comparable figure for FY 2024-25 was 4.2%.

Egypt’s key sources of hard currency are under pressure, including remittances from Egyptians living abroad, tourism receipts, and Suez Canal revenues. Still, it notes that Suez Canal revenues have remained relatively resilient, rising 21% y-o-y to around USD 3.0 bn in the first eight months of FY 2025-26, compared to USD 2.5 bn a year earlier, with no material impact from the war — so far.

As a net energy importer since 2023, Egypt also remains highly vulnerable to Israeli gas import disruptions — which account for 60% of the country’s total gas imports and 15-20% of its overall gas consumption. Furthermore, Egypt remains highly exposed to global food and wheat price instability, prompting the agency to widen its current account deficit forecast to 4.8% of GDP, up from 4.1% in October.

Foreign portfolio outflows are expected to remain elevated during periods of heightened global risk aversion. The agency noted that around USD 10 bn exited Egypt within one month of the conflict’s onset, mirroring patterns seen during the Russia-Ukraine war, when about USD 20 bn left local markets.

Despite a gradual improvement in Egypt’s debt metrics, S&P expects gross financing needs to remain elevated at above 40% of GDP. General government debt is expected to decline to 89% of GDP by June 2026 — down from a peak of 94% in 2023 — supported by stronger growth, exchange rate stability, and easing domestic yields. The ratio is forecast to fall further to 83% by June 2029.

Despite the conflict, S&P expects GCC states to continue providing significant financial support, citing Egypt’s strategic regional role. This support is underpinned by large-scale investments, including a USD 35 bn development project in Ras El Hekma and a USD 30 bn tourism project in Alam El Roum. Complementing these are around USD 18 bn in GCC deposits held at the Central Bank of Egypt, which are expected to remain in place until the IMF program concludes in December 2026.

Tags:

economy GDP S&P Global Ratings

Economy

We knew it would be bad, but…

Annual urban inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month to 15.2% in March — beating almost all analyst estimates — as the economy absorbed the first full month of the US-Israeli war with Iran, surging energy prices, and a weakening EGP fueled broad-based cost pressures. On a monthly basis, inflation jumped to 3.2%, compared to 2.8% a month earlier, according to Capmas data.

“March inflation came higher than our estimate of 14.5% y-o-y and 2.6% m-o-m, and higher than the Reuters poll’s median estimate of 14.7% y-o-y,” HC’s Nemat Choukri tells EnterpriseAM. Choukri blames the war, which pushed global energy prices higher, prompting the government to raise diesel and petrol prices by an average of c.16% on 10 March, alongside a c.12% depreciation in the EGP, which ended the month at EGP 54.56/USD.

Food and beverage prices — which account for the majority of the goods in the CPI basket — rose 4.8% in a single month as war-driven shipping and ins. costs trickled down, mainly on the back of a 21.6% increase in vegetable prices fueled by rising transportation costs, CI Capital writes in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. Electricity, gas, and other fuel items rose by 8.6% m-o-m.

“Our main concern here is the potentially lingering upward pressure on the food item, which might witness global disruptions fueled by higher fertilizer and energy prices,” Thndr’s Esraa Ahmed tells us.

More price hikes are coming: Recent fuel hikes of 14–30% in March will be compounded by upcoming electricity price hikes. Commercial electricity tariffs are expected to jump between 20–91% this month, along with an increase in residential tariffs between 16–28%.

What’s next

Where we go from here is closely tied to currency movements and utility price adjustments. “We expect the electricity price hikes to reflect in the April 2026 inflation figure […] it is likely to be partially offset by a possible drop in vegetable prices due to the harvesting season,” CI Capital notes. In addition, it “expect[s] currency movements throughout [April] to also direct the inflation momentum and direction.”

Potential easing? “Our online price trackers suggest a somewhat sharp reversal in poultry prices (down c. 8% m-o-m) and we expect a lower monthly print in April, which could translate into a modest drop in the annual headline inflation,” Beltone Head of Research Ahmed Hafez tells us. But unfavourable base effects could see inflation staying within current levels throughout 2Q and 3Q due to persistently elevated global energy prices, he added.

Don’t expect interest rates to dip anytime soon: “The CBE is likely to pause its monetary easing cycle until Egypt is firmly back on its pre-February disinflationary path,” Hafez said. Most analysts we spoke to agreed. “We believe the CBE might prefer to put its easing cycle on hold throughout the current phase of uncertainty and until the real cost of the Iran war can be assessed,” Ahmed added.

The central bank next meets on 21 May to review its policy rates.

Tags:

CAPMAS economy inflation

Energy

Egypt claims total output of Cyprus’ Aphrodite gas field

Egypt is set to purchase the entirety of the natural gas produced from Cyprus’s 3.7 tcf Aphrodite field, according to a disclosure (pdf). The agreement was finalized after the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (Egas) inked a term sheet with field partners NewMed Energy, Chevron, and Shell, alongside a host government agreement to build a USD 2 bn pipeline connecting the field to Egypt’s coast.

Why it matters: The agreement secures some 100 bcm of Cypriot gas over time with hopes of re-exporting to Europe, feeding Egypt’s liquefaction infrastructure and reinforcing its position as the East Med’s premier processing hub. The massive supply will feed our LNG export facilities at Idku and Damietta while also providing fuel for domestic consumption amid an ongoing energy crisis — helping reduce our large LNG import bill and reduce reliance on pipeline gas from Israel.

The details: The subsea transmission system will be constructed and operated by Aphrodite Midstream, a new special purpose company jointly owned by the Aphrodite partners and an Egyptian government-appointed entity. Under the 15-year contract — which includes a five-year extension option — the gas price will be linked to Brent crude, complete with a floor and a ceiling price. Gas will land at Port Said via pipeline, receiving up to 700 mmcf/d for six years before shifting to flexible volumes.

ICYMI- Cyprus agreed in February to foot the entire USD 2 bn bill for the pipeline, dropping its push for cost-sharing in exchange for utilizing Egyptian liquefaction infrastructure. Last year, the government reached an agreement with Italy’s Eni to connect Cyprus’s offshore Cronos gas field to Zohr infrastructure for liquefaction and re-export starting 2027.

What’s next: The parties have 12 months to sign final agreements, while the Egyptian parliament has six months to approve the fiscal framework. A final investment decision must be adopted within 12 months of the final contracts being signed, with pipeline construction expected to begin in 2027, while gas from Aphrodite will start heading our way by 2030.

Tags:

Chevron energy NewMed Energy oil and gas Shell

Construction

Egypt’s new path to Saudi housing boom

Egyptian contractors will have to meet new qualification rules to qualify for work on Saudi Arabia’s SAR 200 bn pipeline of housing, utilities, and healthcare projects, Egyptian Federation for Construction and Building Contractors (EFCBC) board member Shams El-Din Youssef tells EnterpriseAM. Saudi officials met with Egyptian firms to build on earlier discussions with the National Housing Company (NHC) and to discuss sourcing expertise.

The updated rules target companies with no prior presence in Saudi Arabia. To qualify, firms must:

Be classified as first-tier contractors by the Egyptian Federation for Construction and Building Contractors;
Not be previously registered with Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Investment;
Show at least EGP 90 mn in annual revenues over the past five years;
Have a minimum of 15 years’ experience.

What’s next? So far, 25 Egyptian firms have made the cut and qualified for registration with the NHC. The next steps involve a series of virtual meetings to hash out the details. Meanwhile, the federation is working with Saudi authorities to reopen the qualification window soon and get even more Egyptian companies cleared to participate.

Why it matters: The new entry rules are a pragmatic response to address a capacity gap in the Kingdom’s construction sector. As homeownership surpasses 66% in 2025 toward a 70% target by 2030, housing needs are accelerating, with Riyadh alone expected to require over 305k new homes by 2034. Domestic contractors are already tied up with gigaprojects like Diriyah, prompting the NHC to open a faster track for Egyptian firms to help bridge the gap and deliver projects on schedule.

Tags:

construction housing real estate

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Also on our Radar

China’s Henan Zhongfu to build USD 2 bn aluminum hub as regional supply shock bites

China’s Henan Zhongfu to roll out USD 2 bn aluminum plant in SCZone

Chinese aluminum manufacturer Henan Zhongfu will set up a USD 2 bn aluminum megaproject in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone), according to a cabinet statement. The 1 mn sqm facility in East Port Said will target high-value deep processing for the automotive and electronics sectors.

Why it matters: Egypt is emerging as the primary “safe harbor” for heavy industry as regional conflict cripples the GCC’s aluminum giants. With Iranian facilities offline and drone strikes targeting Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Global Aluminum and Aluminum Bahrain, prices went up nearly 5% last month — moving steadily toward a projected USD 4k per ton. By landing this project now, the SCZone is an increasingly important node in the global supply chain.

Mobica diversifies into the automotive supply chain with USD 20 mn investments

Furniture maker Mobica pushing deeper into making parts of the car industry, with some USD 20 mn earmarked this year to expand into automotive components and agriculture, CEO Mohamed Farouk told Alsharq Business. The company plans on expanding into new projects in the industrial and logistics sectors before the end of 1H 2026.

Why it matters: We’re seeing more big industrial players chasing a cheaper EGP into sectors with high export potential or government-backed localization mandates. Mobica is eyeing incentives under the National Automotive Industry Development Program (AIDP), which targets 100k vehicles annually with 60% local content. Mobica is essentially wagering that its existing manufacturing scale can solve a critical supply chain bottleneck for local assemblers.

Saint-Gobain places EUR 215 mn wager on Egypt’s auto and solar supply chains

French industrial giant Saint-Gobain is moving ahead with plans to bring two new factories online by September 2026, investing a combined EUR 215 mn, according to an Industry Ministry statement. The expansion includes a EUR 175 mn specialized glass plant in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) and a EUR 40 mn gypsum board facility in Sadat City.

Why it matters: The two plants will add to Egypt’s high-value industrial output. The SCZone plant will focus on specialized glass for the automotive and solar sectors, while the Sadat City facility is being built with an aggressive 60% export mandate. This will help the firm expand its EUR 60 mn worth of exports from Egypt and double its Africa-bound exports to EUR 120 mn.

Tags:

ALSO ON OUR RADAR aluminum automotive industry investment Manufacturing Saint-Gobain

PLANET FINANCE

The Medium Short

If there was ever a warning sign that private credit is in trouble, this is the strongest one yet: Wall Street just built a tool to short it.

What’s happening? S&P Global is teaming up with a syndicate of major banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, to launch the S&P CDX Financials Index, a new credit-default swap benchmark that is set to begin trading on Monday.

The index tracks 25 North American financial institutions, but the main attraction is that some 12% of the gauge is tied to private debt funds managed by sector heavyweights like Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, and Blackstone.

SOUND SMART- A credit-default swap (CDS) is a financial derivative that functions like an ins. policy against the risk of a borrower failing to pay off their debt. If you buy a CDS on an entity and that entity defaults, the seller of the swap pays you out. Historically, these derivatives have offered protection against the risk of a bond issuer, such as a corporation, a bank, or a sovereign government, failing to repay its creditors. The new index allows investors to purchase ins. against defaults by the index's members, meaning the value of the index will rise if market sentiment sours on these specific firms.

If this sounds familiar, it should: CDSs were the notorious financial instruments at the center of the 2008 financial crisis, used famously by traders to bet against the housing market in The Big Short. Back then, they were used to insure subprime mortgage-backed securities. When the housing market collapsed, institutions that had sold massive amounts of these swaps — like AIG — couldn't cover the resulting payouts, triggering systemic global contagion.

Why it matters: The private credit market has exploded into a massive industry, valued anywhere from USD 1.8 tn to over USD 3 tn. Betting against it has historically been a clunky and costly headache for traders. This new derivative gives hedge funds a rapid mechanism to profit from a potential sector downturn, while allowing major banks to hedge the massive loans they've made to private credit managers.

The timing is no accident: Private credit funds are facing their toughest stress test since the period following the 2008 financial crisis. Retail investors are increasingly trying to pull their capital amid a spate of defaults, alongside growing fears that the AI boom will upend the software companies these funds heavily rely on for returns.

Custom-made: Writing the CDS directly on business development companies (BDCs) — a specific type of private credit fund — offers a direct line to short the sector rather than relying on proxy wagers, S&P Dow Jones Indices' Nicholas Godec told Bloomberg.

Pundits are seeing attraction: “Private credit has grown fast and there's a lot of financial exposure arising in different ways so there is a real demand for this product,” Barclays head of credit strategy Dominique Toublan told the Wall Street Journal.

The glaring omission? Blue Owl Capital. The private credit giant was initially slated for inclusion but was quietly scrubbed from the final roster following feedback from market players. Market participants warned that Blue Owl has been under so much recent stress that keeping it in would make the broader index “too idiosyncratic” right out of the gate, Godec told Bloomberg.

What comes next: Expect immediate trading volume from the bears. Heavy hitters like Boaz Weinstein's Saba Capital actively advocated for the creation of this exact product.

A roster of major lenders — including Bank of America, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs — are slated to begin selling the derivatives to clients very soon.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Despite the US’ ongoing blockade on Iran, Asian markets are rallying across the board. Japan’s Nikkei is seeing gains of around 2.5% in early trading, while South Korea’s Kospi is up around 3.2%. Meanwhile, US futures are largely trading flat.

EGX30	49,079	+1.0% (YTD: +17.3%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 53.07	Sell 53.21
USD (CIB)	Buy 53.04	Sell 53.14
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	11,427	+1.0% (YTD: +8.9%)
ADX	9,786	-0.5% (YTD: -2.1%)
DFM	5,668	-0.8% (YTD: -6.3%)
S&P 500	6,863	+0.7% (YTD: +0.6%)
FTSE 100	10,583	-0.2% (YTD: +6.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,905	-0.4% (YTD: +1.9%)
Brent crude	USD 99.36	+4.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.62	-0.0%
Gold	USD 4,771	+0.1%
BTC	USD 73,262	+2.8% (YTD: -16.4%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,031	+0.1% (YTD: +23.5%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151	+0.3% (YTD: +6.2%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	19.12	-0.6% (YTD: +27.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.0% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 7.8 bn (16.4% above the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 17.3% YTD.

In the green: Orascom Development (+4.0%), Misr Cement (+3.4%), and Telecom Egypt (+3.2%).

In the red: Palm Hills Developments (-2.3%), Raya Holding (-1.9%), and GB Corp (-1.5%).

Tags:

Financial Markets Planet Finance

Our weekly deep dive into the green economy and ESG issue in Egypt.

Published every Tuesday in EnterpriseAM.

Read going Green

Going Green

A case for traceable trash

Struggling Egyptian waste tech startups are in need of a policy push and corporate mandates to help scale their operations, business owners tell EnterpriseAM. Historically, these startups have faced obstacles scaling due to limited awareness and an unstructured market, but the sector could be better positioned to enter a traceable and tech-driven era with a little help.

The informal market: Egypt’s waste system already functions, but it relies heavily on informal collectors that handle material in the thousands of tons and play a central role in recovery, even in major cities. Startups are choosing to integrate these networks rather than compete against them. Circular economy platform Dawar and household collection app Bekya Pay view the informal sector as essential partners, focusing on formalizing their operations through pricing transparency, logistics coordination, and access to larger markets.

The pricing pressure: The recycling business remains heavily constrained by fluctuating global commodity prices. “Materials such as cardboard, metals and plastic prices can vary significantly,” Bekya Pay co-founders Mohamed Ibrahim, Mohamed Hamdy, and Omar Saleh tell EnterpriseAM, noting that these swings directly impact profitability. The local market is also sensitive to international price arbitrage, and our cheap scrap could be sold at a higher price abroad.

IN CONTEXT- The government is tightening its grip on valuable raw materials, extending a strict export fee on zinc and certain scrap metals until 15 July 2026 to prevent them from bleeding out of the local market. Customs authorities have been instructed to increase inspections and tighten oversight at ports.

The behavior bottleneck: “Households separate their waste only if they can exchange it for an incentive,” Dawar co-founder Hussein Barrada tells us. Even with incentives, the Bekya Pay co-founders describe a dynamic that keeps engagement uneven. The familiar pattern goes like this: “Early adopters join fast, especially in urban and higher-income areas,” lured by awareness campaigns, incentives, and convenience. “After the early growth, interest often plateaus,” as remaining households require stronger incentives or easier access. Growth can resume only after stronger incentives, regulation, or institutional partnerships.

Scaling a formalized system requires massive capital and strict regulatory enforcement. The World Bank estimates that achieving universal waste collection in low-to-middle income countries like Egypt would require spending 0.3% of GDP, up from less than 0.15% today. A shift in policy is also required, with Dawar’s Barrada arguing that once extended producer responsibility (EPR) frameworks are enforced, “we will see a shift in monetization because all waste packaging companies and brand owners will be required by law to contribute to the collection and recycling of the waste.”

The corporate push: “The demand is super high from all the international brand owners as they have this as a global mandate,” Dawar’s CEO Amr Fathi says. However, “local brand owners are still in the awareness phase,” but that is expected to shift as EPR takes hold, he adds.

To capture this corporate demand, the sector is shifting its focus toward tracking waste data. In a major consolidation move, Dawar has recently acquired a strategic stake in BekyaPay to link direct household inputs into its broader, traceable value chain, according to a statement (pdf).

DATA POINT- Following the acquisition, Dawar now boasts a registered operational network spanning 22 governorates and has traced over 90k verified tons of waste over the past three years. Through its trading arm, it targets 5k tons of PET and 10k tons of cardboard monthly. Meanwhile, Bekya Pay brings in over 30k registered users and collects approximately 40 tons of recyclables per month across 500 dark stores.

Your top green economy stories for the week:

Eni announced a new gas discovery at the Denise W 1 exploration well in Egypt’s Temsah concession, with preliminary estimates pointing to around 2 tcf of gas and 130 mn barrels of condensate. While smaller than Zohr, the find is still significant and could help reduce Egypt’s energy import bill, especially as its proximity to existing infrastructure may allow for fast-tracked production.
Egypt is pursuing a dual-track energy strategy that combines record gas imports with ambitions to become a regional export hub, Oil Minister Karim Badawi said. While imports are helping meet domestic demand and avoid blackouts, they are also keeping LNG infrastructure operational as Egypt positions itself to re-export gas from Cyprus and Israel alongside future increases in local production.

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CALENDAR

2026

APRIL

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE

15 June (Monday): Seventh review of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of the June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital-Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

July 2026: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to visit Egypt.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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