We hope you, like us, have had a wonderful week and are looking forward to the second weekend of Ramadan. We are forever grateful for the privilege of writing all of you each morning.
Our top three stories this morning are at the intersection of energy and social stability. Sources close to Cabinet tell us that ministers are pushing state-owned companies to start making good on arrears owed to energy companies. The energy companies have already been given new incentives — by rising oil prices (for IOCs) and a mix of state contracts and deregulation (electricity producers and contractors) — to play ball. That incentive is about to get sweeter (directly and indirectly) for some of them: Capital Economics suggests that rising oil prices could force the state to raise fuel prices by as much as 60% in the new fiscal year starting in July, and we’ve already reported this week that electricity prices could rise by as much as 55% this summer. Capital economics thinks the impact on inflation of the subsidy phase-out will be limited and transient. Either way, cushioning low income earners from the impact of subsidy reform this summer is high on Cabinet’s agenda: Ministers are reportedly preparing to sign off on an EGP 15 bn package of new spending to strengthen the social safety net.
We have chapter and verse in today’s Speed Round.

With our random sappiness out of the way, may we just say while it could be the lack of coffee speaking, but: We’re getting a little bit tired of the wall-to-wall coverage of the Emerging Markets Zombie Apocalypse?
Nobel Prize-winning economist and columnist Paul Krugman got in on the party yesterday suggested we could be looking at a 1990s Asian financial crisis-style meltdown, which Bloomberg helpfully notes saw “developing-nation stocks [slide] 59 percent and governments [raise] interest rates to exceptionally high levels.” Krugman wrote on Twitter: “It’s become at least possible to envision a classic 1997-8 style self-reinforcing crisis: emerging market currency falls, causing corporate debt to blow up, causing stress on the economy, causing further fall in the currency. … Are we seeing the start of another global financial crisis? Probably not -- but I’ve been saying that there was no hint of such a crisis on the horizon, and I can’t say that anymore. Something slightly scary this way comes.”
As of now, Bloomberg adds, a dozen EM currencies have tumbled more since February than they did during the 2013 taper tantrum, such saw its five-year anniversary on Tuesday.

Will the stress get worse when EM run into a “looming” debt wall? Are we really facing a “contagion”? Bloomberg has compiled data suggesting that EM companies and governments are “straining to deal with the rising cost of borrowing in USD” and have some USD 249 bn that will need to be repaid or refinanced through next year. “That’s a legacy of a decade-long debt binge during which emerging markets have more than doubled their borrowing costs in USD, ignoring the many lessons of history from the 1980s Latin American debt crisis, the 1990s Asian financial crisis and the 2000s Argentine default.” Egypt is near the bottom of the list of 18 countries that Bloomberg says are potential “points of stress” and doesn’t make its list of the 16 most fragile EM as measured by the ratio of foreign debt exposure to GDP.
Into the fray rides the Financial Times, which writes that the last time sub-Saharan African countries had this much debt was just “before the debt forgiveness programme of the early 2000s,” citing a report by credit rating agency S&P.

As usual, Mark Mobius is the voice of reason. The iconic, 81-year-old EM investor, who left Franklin Templeton earlier this year to set top Mobius capital Partners, told Bloomberg yesterday that, “We still could have some downside in the emerging markets, but selectively, you have some good opportunities. Now would be a stock picker’s market.” Mobius singled out Indian financial and tech stocks and said that if the correction deepens, Chinese tech shares could start to look interesting. Also looking good: South Africa, Russia, Malaysia and South Korea.
Other stuff that’s on our radar this morning:
- Standard Chartered and Barclays kicking the tires on a potential merger, the FT reported yesterday in an exclusive.
- Deutsche Bank plans to cut as many as 10k jobs (or about 10% of its workforce), with the deepest cuts hitting the investment banking division in the US and the UK. (Wall Street Journal | Reuters | Financial Times)
- The Fed’s worries that trade tensions may dampen business sentiment in the US saw the biggest fall in the two-year treasury bill yield fall so far this year. (Financial Times)
- The UAE’s proposal to allow 100% foreign ownership of companies in the Emirates could be limited to specific industries. (Bloomberg)
Your Ramadan rundown for today:
Bank hours run 09:30 am to 01:30 pm for customers and from 09:00 am to 02:00 pm for employees, CBE announced.
The EGX is running shorter trading hours. The trading session kicks off at 10:00 am, but closes at 1:30 pm. Tap or click here for the full schedule.
It’s going to be hot through the weekend: The ongoing heatwave is continuing today, but temperatures will finally drop below 40°C with forecasts for a daytime high of 38°C, according to the Meteorological Authority. Respite comes on Sunday (yeah, Sunday, not Saturday, according to the updated forecast), when you can expect a string of days at 33°C running through the end of next week. Northern coastal cities can expect to see some rainfall today.
So, when do we eat? For those of us, Maghrib is at 6:47 pm CLT today. You’ll have until 3:15 am tomorrow to finish your sohour.


