CBE holds rates for fourth meeting in a row

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

S&P Dow Jones Indices retains Egypt’s emerging-market status

Good morning, everyone. Egypt’s resource economy is front and center today, with money, minerals, and chemicals each moving at their own pace toward the same destination.

The biggest news is that the CBE held rates for a fourth consecutive meeting. The decision was expected — July inflation ticked up for the first time since March, an electricity-price increase is still working through the data, and the CBE’s own forecast sees inflation averaging 16.6% in FY 2026/27 before falling back to target in 2H 2027.

Abu Tartour broke ground. The USD 658 mn phosphoric acid complex in the New Valley governorate has moved from contractor selection to construction. The plan is to finish construction in 30 months and produce 250k tonnes of phosphoric acid every year for export via Safaga. The project has been years in the making, and now we’re seeing progress on the ground.

And in mining: Saudi Gold Refinery has applied directly under its own name for Eastern Desert exploration blocks near Al Baramiya, targeting gold production before 2030. The ambition is notable, but so is the gap between an exploration license and a producing mine.

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EGX keeps its seat

S&P Dow Jones Indices has decided not to downgrade Egypt, confirming the country will keep its Emerging Markets status, according to an EGX statement. The announcement, dated 20 August, closed out a review that started in June, when S&P proposed downgrading Egypt to Frontier Market status, a lower tier with less global investment money tracking it.

Why it matters: Egypt makes up 0.12% of S&P’s Emerging Markets index. But if it had been downgraded, it would have jumped to about 3.4% of the much smaller Frontier index — nearly 29 times as large a share. That kind of jump forces index funds to buy or sell large amounts of Egyptian stocks automatically, regardless of how the companies are actually performing. Dodging the downgrade means Egypt avoids that disruption.

What the EGX says helped: EGX Chairman Omar Radwan told us earlier this month the exchange made its case to S&P by pointing to Egypt’s improving fundamentals, including fewer delays getting foreign money in and out, record foreign currency reserves, and a record daily trading volume of EGP 15.6 bn. The EGX also directly reached out to 17 major index-tracking institutions before the deadline to discuss the review. Recent reforms, like the new derivatives market and the short-selling rules, were also part of the pitch.

IN CONTEXT- The EGX passed another index provider’s test earlier this year when it cleared FTSE Russell’s annual review, retaining its Secondary Emerging Market status and remaining above the minimum company threshold required for inclusion. FTSE had added Egypt to a watchlist for possible demotion back in 2023 amid reports of foreign investors having difficulties repatriating capital.

Speaking of FTSE: Telecom Egypt will move from small-cap to mid-cap in FTSE Russell’s Emerging Markets indices in the September semi-annual review, joining CIB and Talaat Moustafa Group as the third Egyptian company in the benchmark, according to a company statement. The upgrade follows the stock’s rally, which lifted the company’s market capitalization to around USD 3.9 bn, and will take effect on 21 September.

A new Marakez destination

Our friends at Marakez are entering Egypt’s Red Sea coast for the first time, launching Shams Soma with Somabay, according to a press release (pdf). The project will approximately 80-feddan integrated mixed-use tourism site in Somabay will offer residential units, a hotel and other facilities. Sales for the project are reportedly scheduled to open before the end of 2026, and Marakez has entered into a revenue-sharing agreement with Somabay with a EGP 40 bn revenue target, according to unnamed sources.

Why this matters: The move unites two players already betting on Egypt’s next wave of tourist-destination real estate. For Marakez, the venture marks an expansion beyond Cairo and the North Coast and into the Red Sea’s growing mixed-use tourism market. Somabay has been expanding both its hotel footprint and its residential offerings, with CEO Ibrahim El Missiri previously telling EnterpriseAM that the Red Sea is poised to become the country’s next major property hotspot, supported by its infrastructure and connectivity.

Listing or partner

New Ghazl El Mahalla could have its route to market decided by the end of September, with the government expected to choose between bringing in a strategic investor or pursuing a temporary EGX listing, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. The company is completing its incorporation and listing-related documentation and has begun selecting an external auditor.

REMEMBER- The cabinet greenlit the demerger earlier this month, creating New Ghazl El Mahalla for Spinning and Weaving to take over the active spinning, weaving, garment, and finishing operations, while the legacy company remains on a separate restructuring track. Hashem El Sayed, head of the cabinet’s State-Owned Enterprises Unit, first told us in April that the textile giant could be split into two arms: one housing the upgraded factories for a potential listing or strategic sale, and the other for longer-term restructuring. El Sayed told us in June that separating the upgraded capacity from the legacy burden would make the new company more appealing for investment.

The wider privatization clock is ticking: Egypt is targeting USD 1.5 bn in divestments before its IMF program wraps in December, according to the Fund’s latest review. By July 2026, the government had raised USD 526.3 mn — including USD 420 mn from Gabal El Zeit and USD 106.3 mn from sales of Finance Ministry-held stakes — with the proceeds directed toward reducing public debt.

High-speed rails, going local

The Transport Ministry reportedly plans to launch local tenders by the end of the year for EUR 1.3 bn (c. EGP 74.8 bn) worth of equipment and systems for its high-speed electric rail network, with deliveries set to take place over the following two years, according to unnamed government officials.

The details: The government is targeting first contracts with local industrial companies in 1H 2027 for lines 2 (6th of October-Abu Simbel) and 3 (Qena-Hurghada-Safaga). Supplies — including rails, sleepers, switches, and technical track systems — will be paid for in EGP and delivered in batches according to the execution schedule. Awarded suppliers will provide materials to the contractors executing the works, while Arab Contractors and Orascom Construction will oversee installation.

Where does the project stand? Aggregate implementation across both lines has reached around 47%, up from 22% reported by the National Authority for Tunnels in 2024. Combined, the two lines are planned to operate 26 high-speed trains at 250 km/h, 60 regional trains at 160 km/h, and 27 freight trains at 120 km/h. Line 1, the 660-km Ain Sokhna-Alexandria-New Alamein-Marsa Matrouh route, was 67% complete as of September 2025 and is expected to begin a six-month trial operation in September 2026 following repeated timetable revisions.

The road to CEPA

Egypt and Qatar will begin negotiations in October on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), according to a Foreign Ministry statement. At the seventh meeting of the Egypt-Qatar Joint Higher Committee in New Alamein, the two sides also discussed establishing a joint economic, trade, and investment committee, as well as potential Qatari participation in African investment prospects alongside Egyptian companies and the Sovereign Fund of Egypt.

IN CONTEXT- Egypt-Qatar trade rose 10% to USD 72.4 mn in the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period last year. The planned talks follow the launch of the first phase of Qatari Diar’s Alam El Roum development on Egypt’s North Coast earlier this month. The first phase is expected to involve up to EGP 220 bn in investment across 4 mn sqm, while the wider project is expected to attract USD 29.7 bn and has initial deliveries targeted for 2030.

ALSO- Egypt’s Central Auditing Organization and Qatar’s State Audit Bureau signed an MoU covering training, reciprocal visits, knowledge exchange, IT auditing, and the development of methodologies for performance, project, and contract oversight.

Data point

USD 47.3 bn — that was the total Egyptians working abroad sent home in FY 2025/26, a record figure that was up 29.6% from USD 36.5 bn a year earlier, according to the Central Bank of Egypt. June remittances alone rose 15.6% y-o-y to USD 4.2 bn, from USD 3.6 bn in June 2025.

IN CONTEXT- The milestone crowns a sustained recovery in formal remittance inflows following the March 2024 currency float: transfers had already reached USD 43.1 bn in the first 11 months of the FY, while we reported record calendar-year inflows of USD 41.5 bn in 2025.

Destination Sahel Issue IV, the final issue in the series, drops this week, and we’re exploring how the North Coast could be more than a summer story.

Living in Sahel year-round is moving from a seasonal idea to a serious question; an industrial push is reshaping the Coast’s economic base, and Egyptian homebuyers are weighing Sahel against Dubai, London, and other Mediterranean markets for where to put their money.

In this issue, we get into what it would take for Sahel to work beyond the summer, how industry fits into the Coast’s next chapter, and the numbers behind the Sahel-vs-everywhere debate.

Coming straight to your inbox on Wednesday, 26 August.

PSA-

WEATHER- Heat is picking up in Cairo today, with a high of 35°C and a low of 25°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a couple of degrees cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 33°C and a low of 23°C.

The big story abroad

Iran has condemned planned US sanctions as the regional war drags on with no clear path to peace. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei has called the move by the US an “assertion of extraterritorial sovereignty over every independent member state of the UN.” Tehran plans to target the interests of nations aligned with the US’ policy of economic pressure, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei reportedly said.

What is Washington planning? US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to speak at a press conference tomorrow, after Washington threatened “the toughest sanctions in history” on the Islamic Republic.

Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and Canada are rising. Washington hit Canadian goods with a 50% tariff over the weekend, after the two sides failed to secure a trade agreement. The levies target USD 20 bn worth of goods, accounting for roughly 5% of Canada's total exports to the US. Ottawa fired back by announcing tariffs on US steel, electronics, and other products, penciled in for 8 September.

The cost of memory is up: Soaring memory chip costs are driving up the price of servers equipped with Nvidia AI processors by more than 15% for several major clients. The price increases will apply to systems shipping early next year, affecting configurations powered by flagship processors like Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell.

CBE holds rates for a fourth meeting as inflation risks linger

The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday, keeping the overnight deposit rate at 19.0%, the overnight lending rate at 20.0%, and the main operation and discount rates at 19.5%, according to a statement (pdf). The decision extends the pause that followed February’s 100-bps cut, with policymakers opting to keep the brakes on while they wait for inflation to resume a durable downtrend.

The hold was the safe call, and the expected one: The MPC has now left rates unchanged at four consecutive meetings. July’s annual urban inflation rate accelerated for the first time since March, rising to 14.9% from 14.3% in June, although it did come in below the 15.6% analysts were expecting. With the July electricity cost increase still working its way through consumer prices, there was little reason for the CBE to go for a cut.

The CBE’s own forecast explains the caution: Headline inflation averaged 14.6% in 2Q, slightly below the central bank’s prior 15.0% forecast, but the central bank expects inflation to temporarily pick up in 3Q because of unfavorable base effects before resuming its descent. Under its baseline scenario, the CBE expects inflation to average 16.6% in FY 2026/27, then slow to 8.1% in FY 2027/28 and return to its 7% target range (±2 percentage points) in 2H 2027.

The CBE has more room to wait than it did a few months ago. It has raised its growth forecast to 5.0% for FY 2025/26 and 4.9% for FY 2026/27, citing stronger-than-expected activity, including a recovery in Suez Canal receipts. FX buffers have also held up better than expected: net international reserves reached USD 55.1 bn at the end of June, while the EGP strengthened despite USD 9.5 bn in portfolio outflows. That backdrop gives policymakers less reason to cut rates preemptively to support growth or shore up the currency.

But a stronger external position does not eliminate inflation risk: The CBE estimates that a 1% depreciation of the EGP adds around 0.18 percentage points on average to annual headline inflation over the 12 months following the depreciation. That sensitivity means exchange rate stability remains central to the disinflation path, even as reserves and growth have improved.

What’s next? Geopolitics remains the largest swing factor in the CBE’s outlook. Its inflation projection for FY 2026/27 ranges from 15.2% if regional tensions de-escalate to 17.8% if they intensify, against a 16.6% baseline. Until that range narrows and administered-price increases are fully reflected in inflation data, the MPC’s current “adequately tight” stance looks set to remain the default.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Gov’t breaks ground on USD 658 mn Abu Tartour phosphoric acid complex

The government has broken ground on the USD 658 mn Abu Tartour phosphoric acid complex in New Valley governorate, moving the long-delayed project from contractor selection to construction, according to a statement from the Oil Ministry. The ministry describes the project as the country’s first industrial complex to produce phosphoric acid from local phosphate ore.

The project: The first phase is designed to produce 250k tonnes a year of high-concentration commercial phosphoric acid, a key fertilizer input, planned for export via Safaga Port. China’s China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) and East China Engineering Science and Technology (ECEC) are implementing the project, which is scheduled for completion within 30 months.

The project has been in the works for years: The local consortium developing it appointed CSCEC and ECEC as general contractors in June 2025. We reported at the time that the consortium — Abu Tartour for Phosphoric Acid, Abu Qir Fertilizers, East Gas, the Mineral Resources Authority, Misr Phosphate, Petrojet, and Enppi — was preparing to begin work. Misr Phosphate holds a 25% stake in Abu Tartour for Phosphoric Acid.

IN CONTEXT- The development adds a feedstock-processing link to Egypt’s emerging phosphate fertilizer investment pipeline. Phosphate Misr is also partnering with Indorama on a USD 525 mn Ain Sokhna project designed to produce 600k tonnes a year of phosphate-based fertilizers in its first phase, of which 80% is intended for export. The two investments will pair local phosphate supply with domestic phosphoric acid and fertilizer production, rather than exporting phosphate ore alone.

ALSO- Phosphate Misr, the Education Ministry, and New Valley governorate signed a protocol to establish the country’s first applied-technology school specializing in mining and phosphate ores. The three-year, dual-education school in Kharga is slated to begin operating in the 2026/27 academic year and graduate 100 technicians annually, with students expected to receive practical training linked to the Abu Tartour phosphoric-acid project.

Over in the SCZone

Jieya Egypt also broke ground on a USD 67 mn disposable hygiene products plant in TEDA Egypt’s Sokhna industrial zone, according to a statement from the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone). The company, a subsidiary of China’s Tongling Jieya Biologic Technology, will build the 160k-sqm facility in TEDA’s 2.86-sq-km expansion area, targeting annual output of 8.1 bn single-use hygiene products within two years.

It might be a revised Jieya plan: Tongling Jieya was among three Chinese companies that signed framework agreements with TEDA Egypt in December 2025, as part of a USD 1.2 bn package of proposed investments. We reported at the time that Jieya was planning a USD 160 mn sanitary products plant with an annual capacity of 10 bn wet wipes, 2 bn diapers, and 100k tonnes of nonwoven fabric — larger than the USD 67 mn project now breaking ground. Neither the latest SCZone statement nor the earlier announcement explains whether the new facility is a first phase, a revised investment plan, or a separate project.

IN CONTEXT- TEDA is an expanding Chinese manufacturing cluster, where companies including Sailun, Jushi, and a range of solar, textile, appliance, and components manufacturers have set up or expanded production. Last month, TEDA asked the government for additional land to double its footprint, saying rising investor demand has put its existing 10-sq-km zone under pressure.

Robbiki adds another factory

The Cabinet approved a USD 12 mn private freezone project for Sky Nova for Leather Industry, Trade, and Tanning in Robbiki Leather City in Badr City, according to a cabinet statement. The company will build a 30k-sqm leather-goods factory scheduled to begin operating on 1 September 2027, with planned annual capacity of 2.5 mn pairs of shoes. The project targets a 45% local-content ratio, while projected exports total USD 148.4 mn from 4Q 2027 through 2032.

REMEMBER- Robbiki fully allocated all 43 ready-made factories in its first offering as of early last year, and the government opened a second phase of 36 more units in mid-2025 to keep pace with demand.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Saudi Gold Refinery is bidding directly for Eastern Desert blocks

Coming in strong: Saudi Gold Refinery has applied directly under its own name — not through its subsidiary World Mining Union — for exploration licenses in the 260 blocks the Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ministry opened for bidding in the Eastern Desert, Chairperson Suleiman Al Othaim said earlier this week. The company plans to self-finance exploration and aims to secure the mining license and start gold production before 2030.

Details: The Saudi firm is targeting over five blocks near Al Baramiya, south of Marsa Alam, where geological surveys show high gold concentrations, a government official is quoted as saying. It aims to develop an Egyptian mine on par with Sukari, Egypt’s flagship gold operation. The application is the latest sign of interest in a bid system we’ve been tracking since MRMIA launched it in June — a rolling application window that replaced sporadic auctions, in which an initial bid on a block triggers an automatic 30-day competitive counteroffer period before closing. UK-listed Capital Limited is using the same system to chase nine blocks of its own.

But that’s easier said than done. Securing an exploration concession doesn’t guarantee the geology supports economic feasibility for production — and even where it does, getting there is a phased, capital-intensive process. Rushing from exploration to production typically means compressing the work and drilling faster than the data justifies, burning through capital, as EnterpriseAM MENA+ previously reported in a deep dive.

The pitch surfaces an earlier agreement that fell apart. Talks between Saudi Gold Refinery and state-owned Shalateen Mineral Resources to jointly develop Al Baramiya collapsed over contract structure: the Saudi firm wanted the royalty-and-tax model now used in the open-sector bid system, while Shalateen wanted the production-sharing agreement written into its own charter.

The bigger push: The Oil Ministry is chasing USD 1 bn in annual mining investment and 800k ounces of yearly gold output by 2030, up from current production of roughly 15.8 tons a year, concentrated at Sukari, Hamash, and Igat. More broadly, the government wants mining to contribute 5-6% of GDP by 2030, from under 1% today. Mineral production overall rose 36.3% in FY 2024/25 to 25.8 mn tons, with gold output up 15.5% to roughly 554.9k ounces and silver up 8.7% to 84.7k ounces.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Morgan Stanley see remittances, FDI cushioning Egypt from energy shock

Morgan Stanley has turned more constructive on our external position, arguing that record remittances, resilient tourism, stronger FDI prospects, and a flexible exchange rate have made the economy better able to absorb the regional energy shock than previously expected, the bank said in a research note (pdf). Even under its adverse high-oil-price scenario, the bank estimates that the country’s residual external financing gap would be around USD 3 bn in FY 2026/27 after scheduled multilateral financing.

Remittances are providing a powerful buffer: The bank expects remittances to reach around USD 46 bn in FY 2025/26, up from USD 36.5 bn in FY 2024/25, before easing moderately to USD 43 bn in FY 2027. Morgan Stanley raised its FY 2027 forecast from USD 38 bn as it now believes “part of the remittance surge is here to stay,” with the underlying level of inflows having “shifted higher on a durable basis.” The most recent data from the CBE shows even better results, where remittances reached a new high of USD 47.3 bn in FY 2025/26 (Also mentioned earlier in the issue).

In its base case, assuming oil averages USD 75 per barrel, Morgan Stanley sees a USD 14 bn current-account deficit and around USD 27 bn in FY 2026/27 external financing needs. About USD 23 bn in financing sources excluding portfolio inflows, combined with roughly USD 4 bn in scheduled multilateral financing, would broadly cover the gap. In its higher-oil scenario, with oil averaging USD 88 a barrel, the current-account deficit rises to USD 17 bn and the residual financing gap reaches around USD 3 bn after multilateral support.

The bank forecasts net FDI of USD 13-15 bn in FY 2026/27 across its scenarios, supported by around USD 19 bn in announced multi-year oil and gas investment programs. Asset sales could bring in a further USD 0.5-1.5 bn, excluding potential land transactions, but Morgan Stanley views privatization proceeds as upside rather than the foundation of its FDI outlook.

Morgan Stanley also lowered its December 2026 inflation forecast to 11.8% from 13.5%, after cutting its expected 3Q 2026 peak to 15.2% from 17.1%. It still expects the CBE to hold rates through year-end, though it says the likelihood of a 4Q 2026 rate cut is rising if inflation falls below 13%. The principal risk to its outlook remains a sharp reversal in portfolio flows: foreign holdings of Egyptian treasuries stand at an estimated USD 34 bn, leaving external buffers vulnerable in a severe global risk-off episode.

The EGP could remain relatively steady: The bank sees USD/EGP at 46-48 under rapid de-escalation, around 48-50 in its base case, and 50-52 if elevated oil prices persist. Even its more adverse oil scenario points to depreciation rather than a disorderly currency adjustment.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Rasha Abdel Aal appointed ETA head for one-year term

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly appointed Rasha Abdel Aal as head of the Egyptian Tax Authority (ETA) for a one-year term, according to an ETA statement. Abdel Aal, who has been leading the authority in an acting capacity since December 2023 and is its first female chief, will oversee the next phase of the government’s tax-administration overhaul, including the introduction of better taxpayer services, expanded digitalization, and enforcing compliance.

Why it matters: The appointment puts continuity at the heart of the ETA’s agenda. The authority has rolled out e-filing, e-invoicing, and e-receipts, and paired the digital push with tax-facilitation measures, including a simplified regime for businesses with annual turnover below EGP 20 mn.

We had coffee with Abdel Aal in January 2025, where she framed the authority’s objective as encouraging investment rather than simply raising collections — a line that now looks set to define her formal term.

Talk shows zero in on parents’ loan crisis at Global Paradigm School

The crisis surrounding Global Paradigm School was in the limelight last night. The controversy erupted last Thursday after a parent posted a video on Facebook in which he claimed his son’s school obtained loans from a consumer finance company under his name without his knowledge. He said that the school used his national ID card, after requesting it under the pretense of updating records, and that a large number of families at the school have since discovered similar unauthorized loans in their names.

The unauthorized loans totaled EGP 319 mn across 619 clients and 839 contracts, Financial Regulatory Authority Chairman Islam Azzam said in a phone interview with El Sora’s Lamees El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 11:12). Azzam added that an investigation into the matter began last Wednesday, a day before the video was published.

The consumer finance company was also at fault, Azzam added. Its contract with the school allowed the latter to handle customer due diligence, verify identities, and collect ID cards and documentation on its behalf — a practice Azzam characterized as fundamentally flawed and a direct violation of regulatory standards.

The next steps: Azzam further noted that an inspection report will be presented this week to the FRA’s Committee for Settling Violations, Initiating Criminal Suits, and Reconciliations for review, and that legal action will be taken against all parties responsible.

REMEMBER: The FRA issued a decree earlier this year to establish an integrated system for listing individuals and companies in violation of non-banking financial regulations. This framework introduced three distinct lists: the warning list, the negative list, and the administrative measures list. The initiative aims to safeguard consumer rights and provide greater transparency regarding the entities and individuals operating across FRA-regulated sectors — specifically within capital markets, ins., and all forms of financing.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Egypt approves Fujairah oil free zone in New Alamein

The cabinet approved a special freezone for Fujairah Alamein Oil and Gas Company in New Alamein to store and trade crude oil and petroleum products, according to a Cabinet statement. The roughly 738k-sqm site is next to El Hamra Port’s expansion area, with all products from the zone to be exported. The company’s incorporation has been completed and other approvals are still pending.

IN CONTEXT- The move complements Fujairah and Western Desert Operating Petroleum Company’s (Wepco) USD 457 mn expansion of El Hamra Port, which aims to raise crude-storage capacity to 5.3 mn barrels from 2.5 mn and add 130k tonnes of petroleum-product capacity. Fujairah International Oil and Gas Corporation is also reportedly in talks with EGPC over leasing Red Sea storage facilities.

A surge with a reactor

Egyptian imports of Russian electrical equipment, machinery, and spare parts jumped 949.7% in the first five months of 2026, hitting USD 178.4 mn against USD 17 mn a year earlier, Al Arabiya reports. Total imports from Russia rose 48.5% over the same period to USD 3.37 bn, driven by fuel, oils, and distilled products (up 477.9% to USD 779.6 mn), grain (up 7% to USD 1.09 bn), and iron and steel manufactured goods (up 53.8% to USD 353.2 mn) — even as iron and steel imports fell 40.1% to USD 251.7 mn.

El Dabaa’s buildout has been quite active: In late May, Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy entity Rosatom delivered roughly 2k tonnes of equipment to the El Dabaa construction site, which it described as the largest shipment in its history for a single nuclear power plant. The delivery included a nearly 330-tonne reactor pressure vessel for Unit 2, along with four steam generators and a pressurizer for Unit 1. Rosatom’s reactor pressure vessel for Unit 2 was installed in July, following the same milestone at Unit 1 in November 2025, with the May delivery preceding the Unit 2 installation.

But it’s likely El Dabaa isn’t the whole story. “Other industries and companies are also involved in purchasing Russian electrical equipment,” Head of Research at Confluence Consultants Amandeep Ahuja tells EnterpriseAM, pointing specifically to EV charging infrastructure, exploration machinery tied to Russian stakes in Egyptian offshore gas fields, and a dedicated “Russian industrial zone” in the Suez Canal Economic Zone. She says this zone brings in equipment including electric motors, signaling that Egypt’s National Railway is sourcing equipment from Russian suppliers.

Nevertheless, Ahuja says El Dabaa likely accounts for the bulk of this specific spike, but the rest of 2026 will probably look different. With Rosatom’s shipments largely complete for now, the plant’s remaining work this year is expected to focus on local assembly rather than more large imports from Russia — though the potential effect of recent safety allegations on the timeline is unclear.

IN CONTEXT- Egypt-Russia trade has grown steadily through the 2020s, Ahuja notes, evolving from its traditional foundation of wheat, iron, and defense procurement toward heavy electrical machinery, which she links largely to El Dabaa. Before the nuclear plant, electrical equipment and machinery were a negligible slice of Egypt's Russian imports, she says, framing the broader shift as part of Egypt’s push to diversify its energy mix and insulate itself from shocks like the Ukraine war and the Iran conflict, both of which strained Egypt’s energy supply directly.

One step closer

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has given Commercial International Bank (CIB) preliminary approval to establish Yomo, its long-flagged digital bank, according to a CIB statement. CIB is putting USD 300 mn behind the platform, structured with a holding company in Abu Dhabi for regulatory and tax reasons, CEO Hisham Ezz Al Arab has said, and an operating entity licensed in Cairo. The approval moves Yomo into its next phase: tech validation, cybersecurity testing, and customer-journey work ahead of a targeted 4Q 2026 launch.

IN CONTEXT- This is Egypt’s second licensed digital bank after the Banque Misr-backed Onebank. Ezz Al Arab walked us through the strategic logic back in April, telling us the play is “primarily about expanding the market rather than protecting the existing one,” aiming to reach Egypt’s large underbanked, digitally savvy population rather than defend CIB’s existing 2.5 mn customers — as of 2025 — from fintech competition.

Golden license

The Cabinet has approved a golden license for Nefer Minya for Renewable Energy (NMRE) to build a 1k-MW solar plant with 600 MWh of battery storage in West Minya, according to a statement. Spanning 20 sq km on the Nile’s west bank, the estimated USD 750 mn project is expected to employ some 2.5k workers during construction, and is slated for completion by 30 September 2027.

We’ve been tracking this plant for a while now: NMRE is the SPV built to run the plant, which is 51%-owned by Infinity Power Holding, a Masdar/Infinity Energy joint venture, and 49% by HAU Energy, the Hassan Allam Utilities platform backed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and Meridiam. Last month, the Emerging Africa and Asia Infrastructure Fund and the EBRD were lining up financing against a total project cost of USD 764 mn. The discrepancy between this figure and the more recent USD 750 mn was not mentioned in the cabinet statement. Infinity Power also locked in Chinese PV supplier Aiko Energy for the plant’s modules in June.

Beating the clock

Palm Hills Developments’ subsidiary Palm for Investment and Real Estate Development signed an EGP 8 bn long-term syndicated financing agreement to fund and accelerate construction at Palm Hills New Cairo, according to a press release (pdf). Banque Misr is acting as initial mandated lead arranger, bookrunner, facility agent, and account bank, alongside the National Bank of Egypt as co-lead arranger and security agent. The agreement is meant to help deliver units to customers ahead of contractual dates.

IN CONTEXT- Palm Hills’ backlog of sold-but-undelivered units has hit a record EGP 263 bn, up from EGP 190 bn a year earlier. This is part of a sector-wide pattern where developers lock in record sales through long payment plans, then have to fund construction years before the money actually arrives, Al Ahly Pharos’ Hany Genena explained in earlier comments to EnterpriseAM. The backlog figure itself first surfaced in Palm Hills’ 1Q 2026 earnings, where revenue growth was driven partly by recognizing portions of that same EGP 263 bn pipeline.

Filled up and ready

Tanzania’s Egypt-made dam is online: Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly and Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan inaugurated Tanzania’s USD 2.9 bn, 2.1-GW Julius Nyerere dam and Hydropower Plant, according to a statement. The project, built by Egypt’s Arab Contractors and Elsewedy Electric, has nine generation units and an annual production capacity of about 6.3 GWh, providing renewable energy to more than 60 mn Tanzanians.

A long time coming: Tanzanian officials began the first filling of the dam in late 2022, following the installation of the first turbine unit as well as the placement of the roller-compacted concrete for the main body a year earlier.

More on the way? A visit to Dar es Salaam last month by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi yielded proposals on shipping, ports, and food security, including a possible Safaga-Dar es Salaam shipping route and a Cairo-Dar es Salaam multimodal corridor.

More under our radar:

The General Authority for Roads and Bridges has launched tenders for four road upgrade projects in the Red Sea and Qena governorates, covering more than 84 km at planned investments of about EGP 600 mn. (Al Borsa)
The Communications Ministry has launched the trial version of BelMasry, a sovereign AI platform offered at no charge to support Egyptian Arabic and Modern Standard Arabic through speech-to-text capabilities, machine translation into 50 languages, and text-to-speech services. (Statement)

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BTC tops USD 70k as a Treasury move to ease bond-market strain sparks a rush into risk assets

BTC is finally experiencing a rally after months of decline, with the crypto asset jumping as much as 14% in 24 hours to USD 72k — its highest level since June — after the US Treasury said it would at least double purchases of longer-dated government bonds. Meanwhile, ETH rose 20%, XRP rose 15%, and Hyperliquid’s hype token rose 25%. More than USD 1 bn in BTC short positions were liquidated in about an hour, part of a broader USD 2.7 bn short-covering wave, according to data from Coinglass picked up by Bloomberg.

What’s happening? The Treasury’s maximum liquidity-support buybacks of 10- to 30-year government bonds will rise from USD 2 bn to at least USD 4 bn per operation. The move comes after the US paid its highest borrowing costs on 30-year bonds since 2001, while a 10-year auction this week fetched the highest yields since 2007, according to the Financial Times.

Markets read that combination as a liquidity signal, and cheaper long-term money plus a softer USD are exactly the conditions that make scarce, fixed-supply assets — BTC, gold — more attractive relative to cash. Gold also jumped 2.7% the same day.

BTC got extra torque from positioning: The market had built up a near-record short base, so every leg higher forced more shorts to cover — which is how a Treasury operation turned into the biggest liquidation wave since 2021.

BACKGROUND- Behind the sell-off is a very large number: US gross federal debt has crossed USD 40 tn for the first time after adding USD 3 tn over the past year — its fastest increase outside the pandemic era. Debt held by the public now exceeds USD 32 tn, roughly the size of the US economy, while federal interest costs have surpassed defense spending.

BTC bulls see an opening: This is “exactly the type of thing BTC loves,” Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick said, arguing investors should position for BTC to reach USD 100k by year-end.

The upswing was helped by a sit-down President Donald Trump had with crypto executives at the White House, which followed a proposal from the Securities and Exchange Commission to exempt certain digital assets from securities registration statements as the regulator moves ahead with its stalled crypto agenda.

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EGX30	54,737	+0.4% (YTD: +30.9%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 50.81	Sell 50.95
USD (CIB)	Buy 50.78	Sell 50.88
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	21.00% lending
Tadawul	10,954	+0.3% (YTD: +4.4%)
ADX	10,004	-0.7% (YTD: +0.1%)
DFM	5,857	+0.3% (YTD: -3.4%)
S&P 500	7,674	+0.4% (YTD: +12.1%)
FTSE 100	10,817	+0.6% (YTD: +8.9%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,462	+0.6% (YTD: +11.5%)
Brent crude	USD 94.39	+0.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.77	+1.5%
Gold	USD 4,681	+2.4%
BTC	USD 76,977	-2.0% (YTD: -12.1%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,102.41	+0.1% (YTD: +11.0%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.64	-0.2% (YTD: -0.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	15.13	-5.5% (YTD: -1.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.4% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 12.4 bn (15.0% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 30.9% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+2.4%), Rameda (+2.3%), and Emaar Misr (+1.8%).

In the red: Valmore Holding -EGP (-2.3%), GB Corp (-2.2%), and Kima (-1.4%).

CALENDAR

AUGUST

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday.

31 August (Monday): Deadline to apply online for the Industrial Development Authority’s 540 lease-to-own industrial plots via the Egypt Industrial Hub

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday) El Alamein International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

10-12 September (Thursday-Saturday): Egyptian Entrepreneurship Sector Diagnostics Report Summit, El Gouna.

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

28-29 September (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Mining Forum, St. Regis Hotel New Capital.

30 September - October 3 (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

OCTOBER

5 October (Monday): The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

10-11 October (Saturday-Sunday): Egypt Women’s Health Summit (EWHS), Cairo Marriott Hotel.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): IEX Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

NOVEMBER

6-8 November (Friday-Sunday) : Global Entrepreneurship Festival, JW Marriott Hotel, New Cairo.

8-11 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT Forum.

DECEMBER

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Food Africa, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

4Q 2026: Banque du Caire IPO.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Agri Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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