The government is weighing a large EgyptAlum stake sale on the EGX before year-end

Good morning, friends, and happy hump day. You will see the word “gas” a lot below: less of it for the plants that make our urea, more of it at the LNG terminal.

But first, back to the state’s offerings program: EgyptAlum is back on the list, a senior government official tells us — a large stake to be sold on the EGX before year-end, size pending a fair-value study. You will read the story here first.

Leading our news well: Our granular urea is fetching about USD 535 a ton FOB in November contracts, up roughly 17% since September, Khaled Abu Al Makarem, head of the Chemicals and Fertilizers Export Council, tells us. That’s happening just as the state starts rationing the gas that plants run on, with KIMA reporting a 20% cut from 1 November. Our trade story has what the sell side expects next.

Why isn’t the fund boom lifting the EGX — a question we answer in our explainer below. The industry is worth EGP 504.7 bn, and EGP 393.3 bn of it is government debt; equity funds reached EGP 74.8 bn by September, up from EGP 59.8 bn, but the products drawing the cash are built for savers, and T-bills pay better than the risk of stocks.

Our LNG goes to Europe again, soon. Idku is due to ship its first LNG cargo to Europe in months by the end of November, while imports drop to about 10 cargoes this month, with each now topping USD 100 mn.

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Back on the block

EXCLUSIVE- Gov’t weighs EgyptAlum follow-on offering before year-end: EGX-listed Egypt Aluminum is back on the state offerings program, with the government looking to sell what a senior official describes to EnterpriseAM as a large stake in the country’s largest aluminum manufacturer on the EGX before the end of this year. The size of the stake has not yet been determined and is pending a fair value study.

Who sits at the cap table: The state already owns almost all of EgyptAlum. Metallurgical Industries Holding (MIH) holds 89.84% of the company, Al Nasr Mining another 2.2%, and state social ins. funds a further 5.02%, according to the company’s latest shareholder disclosure (pdf). The filing puts the free float at 7.96% of EgyptAlum’s 412.5 mn shares, but that includes the social ins. funds’ holdings. Excluding those stakes, the actual public float is closer to 2.9%, by our calculations.

The government had previously been in no rush to sell. As recently as July, a senior government official told us that the state wanted to see EgyptAlum’s valuation rise threefold to fourfold before deciding whether to sell a stake or transfer the company to the Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE). A transfer would have let the state keep its exposure to any further increase in the company’s value. EgyptAlum was among several profitable state-owned companies the government had been looking to move to the fund to attract strategic investors.

So why the change of plans? Stronger earnings, a rally in EgyptAlum’s shares, and growing foreign investor appetite for the metals sector have made a sale more attractive, the official says. The company’s investment plans with foreign partners also helped strengthen its investment case, including with German firms and the USD 3 bn alumina refinery with Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) that international lenders were competing to finance in May.

There’s also the government’s year-end divestment target to consider. The state is targeting USD 1.5 bn in proceeds from its offerings program before year-end under its IMF commitments, with the 45% sale of Banque du Caire already bringing in USD 658 mn. The bank made its EGX debut on Monday. Meanwhile, five of the 29 companies under MIH are expected to complete qualification for offering in the near future, the official says.

Buoyed by the hike

The country’s biggest banks lifted the returns on their floating-rate certificates of deposit (CDs) after the central bank raised rates 100 bps last week. The National Bank of Egypt (NBE) put its three-year platinum floating certificate at 20.50% paid monthly, Banque Misr (pdf) at 20.25% (the corridor plus 0.25%), and Commercial International Bank (CIB) at 20.50% on its monthly-payout certificate and 20.25% on the daily one.

That’s because floating CDs move with the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) rate decisions, unlike fixed-rate certificates. Each is priced as a margin over the overnight deposit rate, so the same 100 bps passed through all of them at once without each bank having to decide on it. CIB’s monthly CD went to 20.50% from 19.50%, and its daily CD to 20.25% from 19.25%; the floors (17.50% and 17.25% at CIB, and 17.50% on Banque Misr’s three-year) are what protect savers if the CBE reverses course. What to watch next is whether the fixed-rate coupons follow.

A vote away from done

Orascom Construction’s board is due to approve the capital increase behind its merger with OCI tomorrow, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). The hike would lift its issued capital to USD 207.4 mn from USD 110.2 mn through 97.2 mn new shares allotted to the Dutch-listed company. Those shares are due to list on the EGX and the ADX on 24 November, according to Orascom’s timetable.

OCI will trade for the final time on Euronext Amsterdam on 26 November and delist the next day, with its shareholders receiving their Orascom stock on or around 8 December. Orascom expects the whole transaction to wrap up next month. On OCI’s side, NNS’s voluntary offer closes on 17 November, and the distribution ex-date is set for 27 November, according to OCI’s updated timetable.

REFRESHER- Orascom shareholders approved the swap in January, days after a Dutch court barred OCI from voting on its own side over Nassef Sawiris’ role on both. Sawiris moved to break the deadlock with a take-private bid in June, and OCI’s shareholders signed off on 30 October.

Name on the blank check

OG Capital For Investments (SPAC) is targeting up to USD 500 mn of acquisitions in hospitality, automotive manufacturing and distribution, building materials, and healthcare, according to a Financial Regulatory Authority-approved information memorandum (pdf). To clear the listing rules’ EGP 100 mn capital floor, it opened a EGP 90 mn private placement yesterday that runs through Tuesday, 10 November. EFG Hermes is serving as promoter, underwriter, and order-taker, with First Abu Dhabi Bank Egypt as receiving bank. The memo sets out four routes — banknotes, credit balances, a merger, or a share swap — and warns that a swap can materially dilute existing holders’ stakes.

We know who owns it: Ibrahim Gomaa Salem Hassan, the Sinai businessman known as Ibrahim El Organi, holds just shy of 90% of OG Capital. His son Essam El Din is the company’s chief executive and managing director with roughly 10%, and another Organi company executive, Nora Bahgat Sadek Daabes, sits on its executive board. The backers had not been disclosed since the temporary EGX listing in May.

IN CONTEXT- The clock matters more than liquidity. OG Capital listed temporarily on 19 May, giving it until around 19 August to clear the EGP 100 mn floor and until around 19 November to put an acquisition to a shareholder vote. That’s nine days after this placement closes, with no target named. It isn’t alone in running behind: Hassan Allam’s Grova opened a EGP 90 mn placement as well this week, 15 months after listing. Only Catalyst Partners Middle East has closed anything, with two acquisitions worth EGP 2.8 bn.

PSA-

WEATHER- Cairo is still holding on to hot autumn afternoons, with a high of 30°C and a low of 19°C.

It’s a shade softer in Alexandria too, with a high of 27°C and a low of 18°C.

The big story abroad

Americans are voting to decide who controls Congress in the 2026 midterms. To take both chambers from Republicans, Democrats need to flip four Senate seats and three House seats. Polls have closed in more than half the country, including most states with competitive Senate races. The newswire expects results to come in between 6pm and 1am Eastern Standard Time.

Nvidia tightens the screws on Chinese cloud customers: Nvidia has told its data center partners they must sell at least 51% of their cloud services to non-Chinese companies, the Financial Times reports, citing five unnamed sources. The move further limits China’s access to advanced US chips as the AI race between the two countries heats up. There were no such limits before. Nvidia’s sales and regional teams passed on the rules verbally instead of putting them in writing, and the rules apply to clients worldwide, not just in Asia, though only to new contracts.

Hackers hit European supermarket fridges again: Supermarkets in eight European countries are rushing to upgrade their systems after hackers cranked up fridge and freezer temperatures on Monday, forcing stores to throw out large amounts of food. The attack mirrored one that hit dozens of French supermarkets three weeks ago. The EU’s cybersecurity agency called for closer cooperation and faster information-sharing across the bloc.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We look into what makes Egypt’s infrastructure bankable when the IFC has no Egypt figure, and where the PPP law stops short on currency