IMF warns global growth is splitting along war and AI lines

Good afternoon, friends, and happy hump day. Today we explain correspondent banking — what it is, why almost every USD sent abroad passes through a US account, and why losing access to one matters. Elsewhere in today’s issue: we tried Dolato’s zero-added-sugar gelato line, which holds up better than expected. That and more.

But first, the news…

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

🌐 Getting plenty of ink this afternoon is the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) warning that the global economy “could soon test the limits of resilience” as oil stocks run lower and lower globally due to the conflict in the region, AI investment and development booms, and accumulation of government debts.

The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, up from a previous 3%, but warned that rising debt and an AI boom pose growing risks to the world economy. Growth is expected to slow from 3.5% in 2025 before recovering to 3.4% in 2027. The Fund’s latest Economic Outlook assumes oil prices will average USD 96 per barrel this year, while global inflation is projected to reach 4.7%. The IMF also forecasts steady US growth of 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027.

Advanced economies are expected to grow 2.1% in 2026, up from 2% in 2025, before slowing to 1.9% in 2027. Global inflation is projected to ease to 4.1% next year, as the IMF’s outlook hinges on energy shipments resuming through the Strait of Hormuz and cooling demand for AI.

^^Read more on: Reuters, Associated Press, and The Guardian.

The Gulf’s sovereign funds and largest companies are committing bns to AI infrastructure at home and to AI companies in the US and beyond. EnterpriseAM AI + Innovation reports on where that capital goes, who controls it, and what it is actually buying.

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** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• MNT-Halan’s retail book is already oversubscribed with four sessions to run. Retail investors bid for some 128.81 mn shares in MNT Tech Holding for Financial Investments, the Egyptian arm of fintech group MNT-Halan, by the end of Sunday’s session — enough to cover the 48 mn-share retail tranche 2.68x. That’s up from 1.41x, or 67.66 mn shares, on Wednesday;
• EXCLUSIVE- Agriventure, which grows blueberries, raspberries, and strawberries for export, plans to go public on the EGX in 2Q 2027. The board has approved the listing and assigned an investment bank to take the company public, without naming it;
• EXCLUSIVE- The billet-duty dispute is heading to court. The Administrative Court will hear the first lawsuit filed by rolling mills against the government’s anti-dumping duties on billet imports on 14 November. The court asked the Investment Ministry to submit data on how imports have affected the market and whether national industry has grown under the duties, before issuing a binding ruling on keeping or scrapping them;
• Elsewedy Electric submitted a feasibility study to Algeria’s Prime Minister’s Office to build an electric and hybrid vehicle assembly plant. The proposed facility would assemble vehicles under the Elsewedy Ezz brand, targeting an 80% electric and 20% petrol production split. The company aims for a 50-60% local integration rate, sourcing engines from German and Chinese suppliers while manufacturing other components locally. No site or commissioning timeline has been set.

The gas crunch gave Egypt every reason to speed up its energy transition, and the question now is who builds it and who pays for it.

Power Trip, our four-part signature series, turns this week to the transition and the private developers now building much of Egypt’s new power.

Issue II looks at how the deals behind these projects work, who is lending to them, and why the country is building a nuclear plant at El Dabaa alongside its solar and wind farms. We also look at whether the regional crisis has finally pushed industry toward renewables, and at the factories Egypt is counting on to build its own panels, batteries, and turbines.

Coming straight to your inbox tomorrow, Wednesday, 14 October.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- It’s a beautifully sunny day tomorrow in the capital as temperatures climb to 33°C, before dropping to a breezy 20°C overnight, according to our favorite weather app.