Rolling mills and steel producers are coordinating a push to scrap Egypt’s billet anti-dumping duties

Good morning, lovely people. It’s Forum Day. The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum: The AI Edition is kicking off in two hours, bringing together 500+ of the people who run this economy. We have a couple of dozen business leaders joining us on stage to discuss the pertinent questions of our era — what does AI really mean for your business and your people, and what do you do about it? Follow us and stay tuned for coverage on Instagram and LinkedIn.

Also, we launched the latest publication under our umbrella earlier this morning: EnterpriseAM AI + Innovation. Our latest must-read vertical covers what works in this burgeoning sector, who is leading the game, and what is changing and evolving by the week. We’ll help you sort the real threats and prospects from the noise: AI news from MENA and around the world, how it’s reshaping our economies, and how businesses across the region are actually using it. We’ll go deep on the innovation economy too, from chip design to biotech. Edited by Joseph Marks (LinkedIn) — formerly of The Washington Post and Politico — the edition will start off on a twice-a-week cadence and is brought to you with the support of our friends at MNT-Halan. Tap or click here to sign up.

In today’s issue: Egypt is laying down two tracks to the Balkans. The first is the Arab-Balkans Corridor, which has a named operator and a published route from Port Said and Alexandria through Thessaloniki. The other is a government memorandum with Montenegro’s Port of Bar, which has signatures but no carrier commitments and no sailings — and we spoke to a supply chain analyst who is skeptical about the plan.

Close to home, stalled Red Sea developers are getting a path forward. Mostakbal Misr has resolved most investor appeals against the Tourism Development Authority’s land seizures. Atif Abdel Latif, head of the Marsa Alam Investors Association, walks us through the new rules that separate developers who never started from those who proved they were serious.

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We’re honored to welcome Dr. Ahmed Heikal as a guest speaker at the 2026 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

Dr. Heikal founded Qalaa Holdings in 2004, building it into Africa’s largest private equity firm with investments spanning 15 countries and 15 industries, before leading its transformation into a holding company spanning energy, cement, transportation & logistics, agrifoods, and mining. Along the way, he built more than 80 businesses across Egypt and Africa, including the Egyptian Refining Company, Egypt’s largest private-sector-led infrastructure project, and has since exited more than 20 of them. He also founded the Qalaa Holdings Scholarship Foundation in 2007, which has supported more than 70k beneficiaries.

Earlier in his career, Heikal joined EFG Hermes in 1992 and played a key role in transforming the small financial consultancy into the leading investment bank in the Arab world and emerging markets, holding senior roles across asset management, investment banking, brokerage, and private equity before becoming an executive board member and Managing Director.

Registration is now closed. Thank you to everyone who registered. We look forward to welcoming you today.

The future of engineering in the age of AI with Youssef Rizk: What do you risk when you build your business on top of the world’s frontier AI models?

Youssef Rizk, CEO of Windfall and co-founder and CTO of Wondercraft, says, “Look at Google’s graveyard.”

We discuss the present moment in tech and take a pause to ponder the future. Does AI replace people? Or does it add more work?

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Billet backlash

Rolling mills and steel producers are meeting on 11 October to coordinate their response to the safeguarding measures against anti-dumping duties on billet imports, before escalating the matter to the presidency, the Cabinet, and relevant ministries, Chamber of Commerce head and El Ashry Steel Chairman Ayman El Ashry tells EnterpriseAM. The meeting follows an initial gathering held this week between 22 rolling mill representatives, appliance manufacturers, and engineering industry representatives aimed at pressuring the Investment and Foreign Trade Ministry to scrap the measures.

BACKGROUND- The ministry first introduced safeguard tariffs on imported steel products in September 2025 as a 200-day measure. In April, the ministry approved extending anti-dumping duties on imported billet and steel sheets for three years, covering cold-rolled, hot-rolled, galvanized, and pre-painted steel. The decision protects integrated steel producers — who make their own billet — from cheaper imports, but downstream rolling mills that buy billet as feedstock say it cuts off affordable supply and raises input costs.

Assessment time: The ministry told the sector it will review the measures’ impact three months after implementation “if they prove damaging,” Federation of Egyptian Industries’ Engineering Industries Chamber head Mohamed El Mohandes tells us. “The duties have led to a shortage of billet supply in the local market and driven up operating costs,” he says. Billet is “a key production input for a large number of industries, most notably engineering industries and electrical appliances,” he says. El Mohandes warns that higher feedstock costs “pressure hundreds of feeder factories and could reflect on the prices of engineering products and affect their competitiveness in both local and export markets.”

The supply problem is structural, as “a large portion of local billet production is directed to self-consumption at integrated mills," El Ashry says, creating a “gap between the licensed and announced production capacity for billet and the quantities actually produced and offered on the market.”

What’s next: Eight new billet production licenses (2.8 mn tons annual capacity) are under bid review but will not move the market quickly since awarded companies need time to start production. El Ashry has previously argued that scrapping the duties could help restart idle factories and cut rebar prices by EGP 7k-10k per ton, according to his estimates. The 11 October meeting will coordinate the sector’s case, backed by studies on market conditions and cost structures already submitted to authorities.

Join the queue

The Finance Ministry is building a platform for Egyptians abroad to buy USD-denominated retail bonds and sukuk, with subscriptions opening in November and December, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. The paper pays out in USD, or its equivalent in foreign currencies, and expat workers and investors can subscribe directly. The aim is to widen the debt toolkit and cut what the state pays to lean on conventional instruments, the source says, without giving the program’s size, yield, or tenor.

Subscription rules and mechanics are still being worked out, and the ministry will open bank accounts to receive transfers — the same arrangement used for the expat car import scheme, which should take the friction out of moving money in, the source says.

REMEMBER- The ministry’s last run at retail bonds lost momentum fast. The Citizen Bond, an 18-month tax-exempt instrument sold domestically and in local currency, raised EGP 5.7 bn in its first tranche, then EGP 2 bn in its second, a drop of roughly 65% that the ministry put down to timing and competing instruments. A third tranche was slated for early June at a 17.75% fixed return, but it never came.

IN CONTEXT- The state already has a queue of expat vehicles waiting to launch. The Memphis Fund, announced in August and due next year, targets up to USD 100 mn within a year of rollout, invests exclusively in Egyptian sovereign debt, and accepts subscriptions and redemptions only on capital transferred from outside the country. That sits alongside the Egyptians Abroad Investment Company, a USD 1 bn direct investment vehicle announced in early 2024, still not operating, and the sector subfunds EGX floated in August 2025. All of it is chasing the same pool: remittances, which hit a record USD 47.3 bn in FY 2025/26, up 29.6% from around USD 36.5 bn in FY 2024/25.

Buying its way out

Half of Qalaa’s EGP 3.87 bn rights issue buys roughly EGP 9.5 bn in debt forgiveness. The feasibility study (pdf) the Financial Regulatory Authority ordered published ahead of the shareholder vote earmarks EGP 1.93 bn to clear arrears owed to Arab International Bank (AIB) and other Egyptian lenders, which brings both settlements current through December 2026. The waivers are worth 4.9x the cash paid, by the company’s math, and come mostly from late-payment penalties. These aren’t obligations payable today — the AIB portion represents USD 44 mn of principal plus interest running to 2033. The final figure won’t be fixed until settlement and will fluctuate based on the EGP exchange rate and the agreed price on the Taqa Arabia shares pledged to the banks.

The working capital math is where it gets interesting: Getting current on the Egyptian bank settlement would let Qalaa move c. EGP 8.99 bn of the EGP 9.7 bn owed out of current liabilities, leaving just c. EGP 720 mn, on management’s estimate. Cash isn’t the only condition: the balance also stays in current liabilities because the transfer of land at Tebbin, part of the settlement, is stuck with the authorities for reasons the study says are outside the company’s control. Clearing both would address part of what pushed its auditor to flag doubts over the group’s ability to continue as a going concern in the June accounts, alongside EGP 7.4 bn of consolidated current liabilities over current assets and EGP 26.3 bn in accumulated losses, according to a separate disclosure (pdf).

What’s paying for it: Egyptian Refining Company (ERC) paid off its principal debt in full in June, 18 months ahead of schedule and down from a USD 2.35 bn peak while swinging to a USD 365.7 mn net income in 1H 2026 from a USD 96.8 mn loss a year earlier. Qalaa plans to cover the remaining AIB installments with dividends from ERC, which the study says the repayment clears the way for. Timing and size are still subject to ERC’s results, distributable liquidity, and shareholder approval. The rest of the raise goes toward taking Qalaa’s effective ERC stake to 27.1% from 13% and its Taqa Arabia stake to 28.9% from 23.9%.

Four-way African summit

Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan are calling for respect for international law on transboundary rivers, including the Nile River, according to a statement. The four countries also voiced opposition to any one-sided action that could compromise Egypt and Sudan’s supply of Nile water. The declaration followed President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s talks with the leaders of the other three countries in New Alamein City yesterday. They discussed boosting trade and economic ties, supporting Sudan and Somalia’s unity and sovereignty, and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

On the GERD issue: The Nile is an existential matter of national security for Egypt, which relies on the river for about 95% of its water, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in an interview with CNN Business Arabic (watch, runtime: 48:23). Madbouly said Ethiopia did not obtain prior approval from Egypt or Sudan, and that the dam’s operation and management must be based on a shared vision, especially on how it would be refilled during any prolonged droughts. He added that Egypt will keep pursuing a diplomatic and political solution, but that there must be “clear controls in place.”

PSA-

#1- Banks will be joining the rest of the country in taking Thursday, 8 October off for Armed Forces Day to celebrate the 6th of October victory, according to a CBE statement. Operations resume on Sunday, 11 October.

#2- WEATHER- Cairo is a touch cooler today, with a high of 29°C and a low of 19°C — down a notch from yesterday’s highs as autumn settles in proper, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a touch cooler on the coast in Alexandria too, with a high of 26°C and a low of 20°C.

The big story abroad

The US Air Force recalled its bombers from RAF Fairford in England following an investigation of a suspected terrorist plot targeting the air base, the Associated Press reports, citing an unnamed Pentagon official. The facility, which served as a launching pad for US strikes against Iran, saw all of its bombers redeployed to their home bases in the United States. British authorities have tied the incident to Iran, which has rejected any role in it.

Right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, setting up a decisive runoff against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 25 October. Defying polls that showed him trailing, Bolsonaro’s first-round surge coincided with key Senate and gubernatorial victories for the country’s right wing.

French energy conglomerate Schneider Electric is close to finalizing its acquisition of US engineering software outfit PTC Inc for more than USD 20 bn. The transaction — which could be announced as soon as today — would be the company’s largest to date, following last month’s acquisition of Bulgaria’s Shelly Group.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We explore Lemania Swiss International School (LSIS), CIRA Education’s EGP 350 mn sports-focused school in Taj City, which has delayed its opening to the 2027/28 academic year due to construction licensing.