CBE held rates steady, but its guidance language shifted

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Proposed US clampdown on BM’s UAE branches will have limited impact on the bank’s credit rating, Fitch says

Good morning, friends. We are kicking off the new week with interesting twists — no change in rates, but the central bank changed its guidance language, and drug pricing got its biggest overhaul in years.

Leading the news, the CBE held rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, which was expected. The part that wasn’t: it dropped the “positive real interest-rate margin” language it had used since April and replaced “ready to adjust policy” with “deploy all available policy tools.” Less tied to a specific formula, more room to maneuver.

Over in pharma, drug pricing just got its most significant rewrite in years. The new framework ties pricing to a three-variable formula — FX carries 60% of the weight, inflation 30%, and interest rates 10% — reviewed every six months. Separate tracks for originators, generics, biosimilars, and localized production. The old system left manufacturers waiting six-to-nine months between an economic shock and a price adjustment. We spoke to industry figures and analysts to break down what the new rules actually mean on the ground.

And Qalaa swung back to the black in 2Q, helped in large part by the Egyptian Refining Company, which finished repaying its senior debt and opened the way to dividends. The holding company is now moving to more than double its stake in the refinery.

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WISH THIS MORNING’S ISSUE was a podcast? We’ve got you. Tap or click here to listen to Morning Drive, a 10-minute version of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or while stomping around the house wondering where the [redacted] you left your [redacted] reading glasses.

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We’re delighted to welcome Ahmed Demerdash Badrawi (Dasha) as a guest speaker at the 2026 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum — the AI edition.

Dasha serves as Executive Vice Chairman of MARAKEZ, a member of the Fawaz Alhokair Group, one of the largest Saudi-based foreign investors in Egypt across real estate, retail, and renewables. He joined the Group to lead its new phase of development and expansion in Egypt, establishing MARAKEZ in 2015.

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Banque Misr remains solid

Fitch says the proposed US clampdown on Banque Misr’s (BM) UAE branches will have a limited impact on the bank’s credit rating, according to a recent commentary note, affirming BM at B/Stable/b. The outpost accounts for less than 5% of BM’s assets and net income. The agency flagged potential reputational spillovers that could weaken BM’s business profile or its ability to raise foreign-currency funding, either of which could pressure its Viability Rating.

REMEMBER- Last week, the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) signed a preliminary agreement to acquire BM’s UAE operations, which Fitch says would lower the risk of a deteriorating credit rating, though no price, timeline, or branch count has been disclosed. The UAE central bank issued preliminary approval for the deal last Tuesday. NBE’s potential acquisition is in response to a proposal from the US Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) to cut BM’s five UAE branches off from correspondent banking access. This is based on allegations that the subsidiary processed around USD 1.8 bn between January 2024 and June 2026 for 103 companies that FinCEN claims may be linked to Iranian shadow-banking networks. It is unclear whether the acquisition will lead to the lifting of restrictions, Fitch noted.

The numbers: The UAE branch’s USD 2.3 bn in USD-denominated obligations at end-2025 make up 43% of the branch’s liabilities but just 2.5% of BM’s total, Fitch said. Healthy liquidity buffers at both branch and head-office level will contain the fallout despite an estimated 20-30% of the branch’s USD deposits leaving the bank since the announcement. BM is a net lender to foreign banks and has moderate reliance on foreign funding, further limiting group-level risk, Fitch said.

What’s next: The proposed rule has not taken effect yet and the public comment period ends 1 October. BM has appointed US legal counsel and plans to submit a response within the window. Fitch expects the bank’s cash reserves to cover its remaining USD debts through the period.

CIB backs Eroglu’s next phase

CIB is providing USD 80 mn to fund the next stages of Turkish textile group Eroglu Global Holding’s Eroglu Knitting complex in Qantara West, according to a statement (pdf). The package includes a USD 75 mn, seven-year medium-term loan to finance machinery and equipment for phases two and three, alongside a USD 5 mn working-capital facility. The integrated complex carries a total investment of USD 140 mn.

The project is being built for exports. The 150k sqm complex is targeting an annual capacity of 24 mn garments at full operation, alongside yarn and dyed-fabric production, with projected annual revenue of around USD 165 mn and more than 4.5k jobs. The project will export all of its sales, with around 50% headed to Europe, 30% to the US, and the remainder to other markets.

REMEMBER- Eroglu has been steadily scaling its Egyptian manufacturing footprint and outlined plans earlier this year to invest more than USD 800 mn in Egypt. The group says its investments in Egypt currently total USD 370 mn across its operations, including Eroglu Knitting and Eroglu Garments in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

Funding the data play

Raya Holding is putting up to USD 60 mn behind a bid for 100% of an unnamed data center here at home, the company said in a bourse filing (pdf). The transaction will see its wholly owned subsidiary, Raya Integration, subscribe to a capital hike at Raya Data Center Services for up to USD 60 mn (c. EGP 3 bn). Proceeds will be used exclusively to fund the equity portion of the purchase price. Raya Integration owns 60% of Raya Data Center Services, according to a separate disclosure (pdf).

The board’s sign-off becomes effective only if the acquisition is awarded to and completed by Raya Integration and/or Raya Data Center, definitive documents are signed, all conditions precedent are met or waived, and all regulatory, legal, and third-party approvals come through, per the filing. If the transaction falls through, the capital increase stays ineffective and creates no funding obligation. The increase can be drawn in one or more tranches in USD, EGP, or a mix, at the executing bank’s rate on each payment date, provided the total doesn’t exceed the USD cap.

The Egyptian government locked in enough LNG and crude to carry the country through peak demand this summer, and the real question now is who pays for it and for the rebuild ahead.

PowerTrip, our new four-part signature series, follows the money behind an energy sector that went from exporting gas to importing it in just five years.

Over the four issues this autumn, we'll look at how the lights stayed on and what that cost, who will own the next generation of power, how fast renewables can really scale, and whether Egypt's claim to be the region's energy hub still holds.

Issue I lands Wednesday, 30 September, and looks at how Egypt avoided rationing this summer, what the gas shortfall means for the economy, and where oil is headed over the next 18 months.

Coming straight to your inbox — Wednesday, 30 September.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another nice summer day in Cairo, with a high of 32°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s similarly nice in Alexandria, with a high of 31°C. Though it’s not that nice along our north western shores up to Matrouh, where a thunderstorm covers the skies.

The big story abroad

Prospects for a lasting resolution to the regional war dimmed over the weekend. US President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire that would have seen Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks in exchange for Washington lifting its port blockade. Trump expects the bombardment of Iran to continue after the US midterm elections in November, officials said.

Tehran’s response? Tehran has signalled that meeting its conditions and continuing negotiations is the only path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Mediators in the US-Iran talks have not officially passed along a US rejection of the plan, despite Trump’s public comments, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said.

In other geopolitical news: Washington and Beijing have agreed to cut over USD 30 bn worth of tariffs on non-sensitive goods in both directions. This applies to US exports including farm goods, wood, and cosmetics, and imports including small appliances, toys, and decorations. The two sides agreed to establish an investment board to discuss opportunities and challenges and to schedule a November dialogue on AI risks and benefits.

Apple liable for haptic patent infringement: A federal jury in San Diego ordered Apple to pay upwards of USD 5.7 bn in damages to Taction Technology after finding the tech giant infringed two haptics patents. The suit alleged that Apple used patented tech to power the haptic feedback in iPhones and Apple Watches. Apple intends to appeal the verdict, describing it as “entirely unsupported by facts.”

CBE keeps rates on hold but recasts policy guidance in broader terms

The central bank held interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting, but its guidance language has changed. The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on Thursday and kept the overnight deposit rate at 19.0%, the overnight lending rate at 20.0%, and the main operation and discount rates at 19.5%, the CBE said in a statement (pdf).

The guidance language changed. The CBE dropped the “positive real interest-rate margin” formulation it had used consistently since April. It replaced “ready to adjust policy” with a broader commitment to “deploy all available policy tools,” and removed the reference to returning to the inflation target “in the near term.” Instead, the statement said, “the current degree of policy restrictiveness serves as a buffer” against upside risks, sufficient to preserve the projected disinflation path. The shift makes the guidance less dependent on a specific real-rate margin or timeframe, giving the CBE more flexibility — as Deutsche Bank puts it in a recent research note (pdf).

The inflation assessment backed the decision to hold. The CBE said inflation outcomes “turned out more favorable than expected” for a second consecutive meeting and revised its inflation forecast downward relative to the August MPC meeting. It now expects headline inflation to “stabilize on average in 3Q 2026.” That is a shift from the August statement, which had projected a temporary acceleration in 3Q on unfavorable base effects.

The data behind the change

The CBE highlighted “broad-based price stability across the CPI basket over the past three months,” citing monthly headline deflation of 0.4% in June, a flat rate of 0.0% in July, and a slight increase in price pressures of 0.1% in August. Annual urban inflation eased to 14.5% in August, undershooting both the 15.5% Reuters consensus and the CBE’s own earlier guidance for a 3Q pickup. Food prices fell for a third straight month (down 1.1% m-o-m), absorbing the roughly 12% household electricity hike that pushed housing costs up 42.8% y-o-y. Core inflation ticked up to 14.9% from 14.7%, which the CBE described as “broadly stable” across core food, retail items, and services.

Inflation is still expected to converge toward the 7% (±2 percentage points) target during 2H 2027, unchanged from previous guidance. Under its baseline, the CBE sees inflation averaging 16.6% in FY 2026/27, slowing to 8.1% in FY 2027/28.

Why a hold?

The growth story: The central bank confirmed that real GDP growth slowed to 4.7% in 2Q 2026 from 5.0% in 1Q, “mainly attributable to the adverse impact of regional tensions.” Full-year growth reached 5.1% in FY 2025/26 and is expected to remain broadly stable this FY.

BUT- The CBE said “output remains below its potential” and will converge toward full capacity only by 2H 2027. The resulting negative output gap, it argued, “suggests that demand-side inflationary pressures will remain limited in the short term, supported by an adequately tight monetary policy stance.”

Three risks the CBE is watching

“The balance of risks surrounding the inflation outlook remains tilted to the upside, reflecting the resurgence of regional hostilities,” the statement reads. More specifically, the CBE sees risks feeding through via “higher-than-anticipated pass-through from fiscal consolidation measures,” international food prices, and global energy prices remaining elevated for an extended period. The statement said these risks “could feed into domestic inflation.”

The pressure on the import bill is showing up in the data. Egypt’s total foreign trade volume reached USD 89 bn in 1H 2026, up around 19% from USD 75 bn in the same period last year, according to Capmas data (pdf). The trade deficit widened about 45% to USD 33 bn from USD 22.8 bn a year earlier, as imports jumped some 25% to USD 61 bn (up around USD 12 bn) while exports rose a more modest 7% (USD 1.9 bn) to USD 28 bn.

And shipping costs are about to add to that bill. Hapag-Lloyd is raising its Freight All Kinds ocean tariff rates from the Far East to Europe effective 19 October, with rates to Egypt, Turkey, and the East Mediterranean rising to USD 3.6k for 20-foot containers and USD 5.1k for 40-foot containers, per the carrier’s notice. The rates include marine fuel recovery and are valid until further notice.

Near-term hinges on fuel prices

HC Securities’ Heba Monir, the lone dissenter ahead of the meeting, told us last week her call for a 100-bps hike rests on what is coming, not what is already priced in. She expects September inflation to hit 1.3% m-o-m on seasonal rent adjustments and the start of the academic year, with October climbing further, around 2.1% m-o-m, as an expected c. 10% fuel-price increase works through the economy alongside subsidy cuts. Deutsche Bank also sees inflation picking up through the remainder of 2026 to 15-16% amid fuel price increases and a rebound in global food prices, with “a rate hike in 4Q remaining a risk scenario.”

The IMF is more cautious. It had expected inflation to average 16.7% in 2H 2026 on higher energy prices and exchange-rate depreciation, with convergence to the target delayed by about a year. The Fund also noted that Egypt’s flexible exchange rate absorbed the Iran war shock better than prior crises, but vulnerabilities — including high gross financing needs, heavy short-term debt, and a large state footprint — continue to pose medium-term risks.

Morgan Stanley is more optimistic. It forecasts inflation at 13.2% in September, below 13% from October, and 11.8% by December, with the CBE on hold through the year-end as “regional tensions override the space for easing.”

The global backdrop adds another layer. The US Federal Reserve raised rates 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike under Chair Kevin Warsh, with 16 of 18 policymakers projecting at least one more increase this year. Brent broke through USD 100 a barrel earlier this month.

The external cushion

Head of Research at Ahly Pharos Hany Genena told us last week the corridor ceiling at 20% against 14.5% inflation gives a 5.5% positive real margin, a buffer that holds even if the Fed raises further. “Even if the Fed raises rates to 4.25-4.50%, the gap is still very wide in favor of the EGP,” he said.

Net international reserves stood at USD 57.2 bn at end-August, up USD 920 mn from July. The IMF noted the flexible exchange rate allowed the country to navigate capital flight earlier this year without draining reserves, unlike previous fixed-rate crises.

What to watch next

The CBE is comfortable with the current rate level as a “buffer” rather than a strict real-rate formula, and is keeping its toolkit open instead of locking into a single path. The next meetings — on 29 October and 17 December — will test whether the risks the CBE itself named (fuel prices, food costs, prolonged energy shock) materialize enough to force a move.

The EDA rewrites its drug-pricing rulebook around costs, competition, and localization

The government has put drug pricing on a new rules-based footing, with the Egyptian Drug Authority (EDA) tying price reviews to a weighted mix of FX movements, inflation, and interest rates, under a new framework published in the Official Gazette on Wednesday, effective Thursday, 24 September. FX carries 60% of the formula, urban inflation 30%, and changes in the CBE’s overnight deposit rate the remaining 10%, with the calculation to be run every six months — or sooner in exceptional circumstances.

The problem the formula is designed to fix: “The lag between an economic shock and a price adjustment could stretch 6-9 months,” Ibn Sina Pharma IR head Mohamed Shawky tells EnterpriseAM. That gap created Egypt’s recurring drug shortages. Private companies covering 80-85% of domestic production cannot absorb sustained losses on regulated prices while input costs move with the market, he says. “These are for-profit companies — they cannot keep producing at a loss.”

The framework is “a strategic shift toward a more flexible pricing system based on an operational formula that reflects actual cost dimensions,” CI Capital tells us. It replaces the old approach that “relied only on exceptional reviews after successive FX shocks.” The investment bank’s research identifies five pillars: FX movements as the primary trigger; an expanded cost base that now includes packaging, manufacturing, electricity, fuel, and wages; tightened reference pricing for imports; a structural price advantage for local products; and transparency through pre-registration price estimates.

Why it matters: Egypt regulates drug prices to keep medicines affordable. The catch: prices are set in EGP, but more than 90% of raw materials are imported and priced in USD, EDA head Ali El Ghamrawy previously told us. When the EGP devalued sharply between 2022 and 2024, manufacturers’ costs spiked while selling prices stayed mostly fixed. The gap between production costs and approved prices became the sector’s defining pressure point.

The mechanics

How repricing works: A price increase can be considered when the formula produces a change of at least 10% and the underlying economic conditions persist for at least 45 days — but the increase is not automatic. The holder of the drug registration must request it. The same thresholds work in the opposite direction, with the EDA empowered to reduce prices when the formula points downward. Companies seeking a product-level review must wait at least six months from their latest pricing notice and submit supporting cost, reference-market, and economic-evaluation data.

The EDA keeps an override on the downside. The authority can independently revisit and reduce a medicine’s price using its cost structure, prices in reference markets, and comparable therapies, without waiting for the existing pricing notice to expire. Any lower price applies to batches produced or imported after the new pricing notice is issued. The decree applies to medicines priced or repriced after its issuance, rather than resetting every medicine already on pharmacy shelves.

When this reaches patients: “Products registered under the new system will not reach the market before 1Q 2027,” Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce Pharma Division head Ali Ouf tells us. There are no price increases on currently traded medicines as long as the EGP stays below EGP 55 to the USD, he says. On the downside, if the USD falls 10% and stays there for 45 days, prices could drop 10-12%, and some drugs could decline 30-40% over the longer term as raw material costs ease and local production scales up, he notes.

Market entry and competition

New market entrants get a separate rulebook. Originator drugs submitted for first-time pricing are benchmarked against the lowest ex-factory price across a 15-country reference basket (Poland, Greece, Hungary, Spain, Finland, Norway, Romania, Belgium, Austria, the UK, Sweden, the UAE, Canada, Germany, and Denmark), with distributor and pharmacy margins added. The UAE’s inclusion gives the basket a regional dimension the previous 35-country list lacked. For medicines with a foreign ex-factory price between EGP 50k and EGP 500k, the framework can instead bring in value-based pricing. Drugs above EGP 500k are benchmarked to the lowest available foreign ex-factory price even outside the reference basket, with the first reassessment after nine months and a cap of three annual reviews.

A localization incentive built into the rules: Originator drugs that are fully localized, meaning their entire production chain moves to Egypt, are shielded from price cuts for five years from the date locally made packs hit the market. This aligns with the government’s broader push to localize strategic drugs — biosimilars, insulin, blood derivatives, and vaccines — where active-ingredient and excipient-localization investment is expected to exceed USD 500 mn. CI Capital notes that locally manufactured drugs are priced at 50-60% of the equivalent imported product, giving them “high pricing competitiveness.”

Competition is built into the price ladder. When no comparable product is trading locally yet, the first generic is priced at 70% of the originator, the second and third at 65%, the fourth and fifth at 60%, and the sixth onward at 50%. Biosimilars start higher, at 80% for the first entrant, 75% for the second and third, 70% for the fourth and fifth, and 60% from the sixth. Where competing products exist, the EDA uses the product’s cost structure and existing market prices. Once three generics are trading in sufficient volume, the originator’s price is cut by 20% or to the lowest reference-country price — whichever is lower.

Margins and distribution

Pharmacies and distributors get tiered margins: On locally made essential medicines, distributor / pharmacist margins are set at 8% / 22% for packs below EGP 500 and 5.8% / 20% above that threshold. Locally made non-essential drugs carry margins of 8.5% / 27% below EGP 500 and 6% / 25% above it, while fully imported finished medicines carry 7.4% / 19% and 4.8% / 15%, respectively. For high-priced medicines, the framework caps nominal margins by price band, topping out at EGP 4k for distributors and EGP 5k for pharmacists on products above EGP 200k.

The 8% distributor margin replaces the old “elgeneih elmaktu” — a flat per-strip fee that no longer covered costs, Shawky says. Distributors pushed for interest rates to be included in the formula because the working capital required to finance distribution to every pharmacy in Egypt makes them the most exposed link to rate swings. The cautionary tale is United Company for Trading for Distribution, which held 26-27% of the market, collapsing under accumulated debt and interest burdens when subsidized government financing went to manufacturers only, he notes.

Tracking and appeals

The national track-and-trace system goes live 16 October, CI Capital reports. The first phase covers about 1.3k imported and UPA-supplied medicines — less than 10% of total SKUs. The EDA mandates a GS1-compliant barcode standard to track drugs from manufacturing to patient. CI Capital expects full market coverage will take 6-12 months, since the system applies only to new batches produced after existing inventory sells through. The EDA is offering incentives for early adopters rather than penalties in the initial phase.

Tighter clocks for high-priced medicines and appeals: Pricing notices generally run for five years, but medicines priced above EGP 50k get two-year notices, on top of the more frequent reassessment rules for products above EGP 500k. Companies can challenge an EDA-set price within three months of being notified, with the regulator required to decide on the appeal within two months of submission.

Export pricing

Export pricing is now decoupled from domestic pricing: Gulf and other importing countries require visibility on a product’s domestic shelf price, Ouf says. Egypt’s historically low mandated prices were translating into low export prices, “making them lose profitability” abroad, he argues. A new pre-pricing simulation mechanism lets companies get an advance price estimate before completing registration, separating the export track from the domestic one, he adds. Shawky argues Egyptian manufacturers should compete on quality with French and American drugs rather than low-cost Indian and Chinese tiers. The sector targets USD 1.6 bn in exports by end-2026, USD 2 bn by 2027, and USD 3 bn by 2030, according to Ouf.

REMEMBER- This is the final version of an overhaul we first detailed earlier this month. The framework under discussion then centered on a 10% FX band, a smaller reference basket, and a simpler pricing advantage for locally made drugs. The published rulebook is more granular: the FX band has given way to a three-variable formula, with separate rules for originators, generics, biosimilars, high-cost therapies, and fully localized products.

IN CONTEXT- Pharma companies have spent much of this year pushing for a pricing system that responds faster to their actual cost base. Manufacturers have been caught between regulated EGP selling prices and imported inputs exposed to FX and logistics costs, with the industry warning in March that rising import costs were squeezing margins and production economics. Industry income fell about 20% in the first eight months of 2026 after repricing-driven growth of 25% and 40% in 2023 and 2024, Ouf told us earlier this month.

BACKGROUND- The country’s public health system is the single largest pharma buyer, purchasing through the Unified Procurement Authority — a centralized bulk-buying model designed to drive down costs. The same model created a payment bottleneck. When the government was cash-strapped, payments to manufacturers lagged. The government began clearing the runway earlier this year, settling 90% of its arrears to pharma companies.

Qalaa swings back to profit in 2Q 2026 as ERC’s refining rebounds

Qalaa Holdings swung to an EGP 2.0 bn net income after minority interests in 2Q 2026, reversing an EGP 1.2 bn loss a year earlier, according to its latest earnings release (pdf). Revenue more than doubled y-o-y to EGP 54.5 bn and recurring EBITDA jumped almost tenfold to EGP 18.2 bn. Over the half, revenue rose 52% to EGP 94.7 bn, and the group booked EGP 185.2 mn in net income after minority interests, against an EGP 1.28 bn loss a year earlier.

ERC did the heavy lifting: Egyptian Refining Company (ERC) revenue jumped 147% y-o-y to EGP 49.4 bn, EBITDA surged to EGP 17.3 bn from EGP 797.4 mn, and net income swung to EGP 12.3 bn from an EGP 3.8 bn loss. Average daily refining margins climbed to USD 4.3 mn from USD 1.2 mn on stronger petroleum-product prices, with the refinery running all 91 days of the quarter against a 32-day planned maintenance stoppage in 2Q 2025.

Beyond the refinery. Revenue excluding the refinery edged up just 2% y-o-y to EGP 5.2 bn, and EBITDA fell 13% to EGP 919.4 mn on margin compression at the cement platform. Still, the rest of the portfolio swung to an EGP 441.9 mn net income from an EGP 739 mn loss.

The debt story keeps improving: ERC fully repaid its senior debt in June — down from an initial USD 2.35 bn — clearing the way for dividends, then paid c. USD 244 mn of subordinated debt in August, with c. USD 559.5 mn left through 2030 and a further c. USD 118 mn due shortly. It also repaid its USD 104 mn shareholder loan to QatarEnergy in 3Q. The deleveraging is feeding through: Qalaa’s bank interest expense fell 22% y-o-y to EGP 1.3 bn. Separately, the group booked another EGP 503.8 mn provision tied to its 2024 debt-settlement agreements, taking the accumulated balance to EGP 9.1 bn, which management expects to write back from 2030 once settlement conditions are met.

REMEMBER- Qalaa is doubling down on ERC. It said earlier this month it will more than double its effective indirect stake to 27.1% from 13% in a transaction that will see QatarEnergy exit the refinery, funded partly by EGP 3.87 bn in fresh equity that lifts paid-up capital to EGP 25 bn from EGP 21.1 bn. The rest goes toward repaying lenders and creditors and exercising the first tranche of its right to buy back c. 5% of Taqa Arabia.

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Valu has become Noon Minutes’ exclusive payments partner in Egypt

Valu is taking its financing products into Noon Minutes’ quick-commerce checkout, becoming the platform’s exclusive financial payments provider and first payment partner in Egypt, the company said on LinkedIn. Customers can use Valu payment plans of up to 60 months, while the firm’s buy-now-pay-later platform Spark It lets them defer purchases for up to 45 days with no additional fees.

The tie-up pushes Valu further into everyday spending. Noon Minutes — a quick-commerce delivery service by Emirati e-commerce platform Noon — covers groceries, household essentials, personal care, and other routine purchases — the kind of higher-frequency transactions Valu has been targeting as it moves beyond big-ticket financing. Transaction volumes rose 49% y-o-y to 2.53 mn in 1Q 2026, with management looking to increase how often customers use the platform over the course of the year.

REMEMBER- The two companies first partnered in 2022 to bring installment financing to Noon’s marketplace, before expanding the tie-up into Noon Payments in 2024.

Plug and Play joins DarE

Dar Ventures partners with Plug and Play on DarE: Dar Ventures, the venture capital arm of engineering and design firm Dar, has partnered with accelerator and early-stage investor Plug and Play for the next phase of DarE, the startup program it set up, according to a statement (pdf). DarE backs tech for architecture, engineering, construction, and the wider built environment, and has supported 32 startups over four cohorts so far. The statement did not disclose the partnership's financial terms.

Who can apply: The 12-week program, run partly online and partly in person, is open to pre-seed to pre-Series A startups that have a working minimum viable product or a market-ready one, along with some early market validation. It will recruit mainly from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, but is open to founders elsewhere. Applications opened on 24 September, and the program starts in November.

What Plug and Play brings: The company says it has more than 60 offices, works with over 550 corporate and government partners, and has accelerated more than 10k startups since 2012. DarE’s participants will get access to that network alongside Dar's industry expertise.

It’s not new to Egypt: Plug and Play launched a Smart Cities hub here with the National Bank of Egypt, ITIDA, and USAID to connect early- and growth-stage startups with mentors and industry and to source investments for its venture arm, Karima El Hakim, then country director and now Partner, Africa, told us in 2022. The firm also invests directly in early-stage startups and offers corporate innovation services to corporations and startups.

A Saudi shareholder for GlobalPay

Saudi tech executive Abdulaziz Al Salloum has bought a 10% stake in UAE-based GlobalPay, according to a company statement (pdf). The transaction was signed in Cairo, but GlobalPay did not disclose the price, the seller, its valuation, or whether Al Salloum bought new shares or existing ones. GlobalPay's Egyptian business is MasrPay, which builds payment tools for merchants and businesses.

Banks threaten to look beyond London as windfall tax talk grows

International lenders say they’ll put their money elsewhere if the UK raises taxes on the banking sector, according to a UK Finance survey picked up by the Financial Times. Fourteen foreign banks with big UK footprints and a combined 35k staff in the country said London is no longer their automatic pick for a European base, as it was before Brexit, adding that heavier tax and tighter visa rules would make them rethink their UK presence.

Why now? Lenders are worried next month’s budget will include a windfall levy, with Chancellor John Healey hunting for cashflows to cover the rising cost of government debt since the Iran war began. Bank earnings make the sector an obvious candidate. Britain’s four largest high-street lenders (NatWest, Lloyds, and the domestic units of Barclays and HSBC) booked GBP 13 bn in combined pre-tax income in 1H 2026, up 16% y-o-y. Union leaders cite last year’s GBP 25 bn in bonuses as proof banks can shoulder more. But UK Finance chief David Postings warned that additional tax could push the industry past a “tipping point.”

The banks’ side: PwC analysis commissioned by UK Finance puts the total tax take on London’s corporate and investment banks at 46.5% of income. No other major US or European hub is higher: Amsterdam sits at 42%, Dublin at 29%, and New York at 28%, while Germany’s reforms will bring Frankfurt down to 34% from 39% by 2032.

The wealthy are heading out too: Macro hedge fund founder Chris Rokos, among the UK’s three largest individual taxpayers, is relocating to Athens and setting up an office there. Greece caps annual tax on foreign income at EUR 100k for as long as 15 years, in exchange for at least EUR 500k invested locally, making it a more tax-friendly option for high-net-worth individuals. Millennium Management is also said to be considering a Greek office. The departures come after the UK scrapped the non-dom regime and raised taxes on inheritance, capital gains, and private equity.

Where the Gulf fits in: The UAE is still drawing wealth. The likes of Millennium Management and Rokos Capital have set up shop in the UAE, alongside their other hubs. But the field of rivals is widening. Turkey rolled out tax breaks for wealthy expats and investors in August; Hong Kong is moving to widen its tax exemption on carried interest beyond private equity to other fund strategies, with the bill expected to go to a final vote later this year; and Greece’s flat-tax regime has now landed one of London’s biggest names.

EGX30	53,777	-0.8% (YTD: +28.6%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 51.71	Sell 51.85
USD (CIB)	Buy 51.73	Sell 51.83
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	10,599	-0.8% (YTD: +1.0%)
ADX	10,201	-0.1% (YTD: +2.1%)
DFM	5,980	-0.1% (YTD: -1.1%)
S&P 500	7,743	+0.5% (YTD: +13.1%)
FTSE 100	10,695	+0.1% (YTD: +7.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,303	+0.5% (YTD: +8.7%)
Brent crude	USD 104.32	-2.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.20	-3.1%
Gold	USD 4,321	+0.5%
BTC	USD 84,102	+0.4% (YTD: -3.8%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,120	+0.1% (YTD: +12.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	147.61	-0.3% (YTD: -2.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	14.87	-5.1% (YTD: -0.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.8% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 10.2 bn (12.8% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 28.6% YTD.

In the green: Misr Cement (+1.7%), Orascom Development (+0.4%), and Palm Hills Developments (+0.3%).

In the red: Juhayna (-3.2%), Valmore Holding (-3.0%), and Ibnsina Pharma (-2.9%).

CALENDAR

SEPTEMBER

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

28-29 September (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Mining Forum, St. Regis Hotel New Capital.

OCTOBER

5 October (Monday): The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

10-11 October (Saturday-Sunday): Egypt Women’s Health Summit (EWHS), Cairo Marriott Hotel.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): IEX Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

NOVEMBER

6-8 November (Friday-Sunday) : Global Entrepreneurship Festival, JW Marriott Hotel, New Cairo.

8-11 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT Forum.

10 November (Tuesday): Cityscape Egypt Forum, Cairo.

DECEMBER

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Food Africa, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

4Q 2026: Banque du Caire IPO.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Agri Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

29 September - 2 October (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape Egypt Exhibition, Cairo.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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