IMF concludes Cairo visit this week ahead of June disbursement

Good morning, wonderful people. We’re kicking this short workweek with a meaty issue. Leading today’s newswell, the Financial Regulatory Authority is cracking down on rogue non-banking financial operators by rolling out a new three-tiered public blacklist — joining public institutions tightening the screws on this expanding market.

On the monetary front — and as widely predicted — the Central Bank of Egypt kept interest rates on hold for the second consecutive time, holding onto its cautious “wait-and-see” approach to navigate geopolitical headwinds and keep a lid on rising debt servicing costs.

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A green light from the fund?

The IMF delegation is wrapping up a two-week visit to Cairo this week to finalize the seventh review of Egypt’s economic reform program, with talks progressing positively toward unlocking the next loan tranche by late June, a senior government source tells EnterpriseAM. The talks focused heavily on the state’s privatization pipeline, which the IMF views as the critical benchmark for releasing the funds, the source added.

The mission also vetted Egypt’s medium-term FX buffers and its planned transition from in-kind to cash subsidies, urging the government to step up social protection measures for middle- and low-income families. To cushion the impact of ongoing fiscal reforms before the IMF program concludes this December, the delegation reviewed upcoming foreign inflows — including the remaining EUR 3 bn in EU macro-financial assistance, which the source tells us is slated for disbursement on two tranches before year-end.

Discussions between the delegation and the government are going “very well,” according to Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly.

A well-timed find

Agiba Petroleum made its largest Western Desert discovery in 15 years, striking an estimated 70 mn barrels of oil equivalent at its Bostan South-1X exploratory well, according to a statement from the Oil Ministry. Agiba, a EGPC-Eni JV, estimates the find holds roughly 330 bcf of natural gas alongside 10 mn barrels of crude and condensates. The well sits just 10 km from Agiba’s existing infrastructure — meaning the company can fast-track the tie-in rather than build from scratch.

Why it matters: The country is pushing to add 1 bcf/d to domestic gas output by year-end to offset costly energy imports, and the government needs foreign partners to drill harder near proven, productive acreage — exactly what this find rewards. The discovery also expedites Agiba’s Western Desert campaign to deploy USD 509 mn next FY, pushing daily output to 38k bbl/d of oil and 125 mcf/d of gas and building on a USD 639 mn effort this year that included 18 developmental wells.

A grain shop

Could we become the regional grain middleman? Supply Minister Sherif Farouk was in Sochi over the weekend for the Russian Grain Forum and held talks with Dmitry Sergeyev, the head of the United Grain Company and President of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters and Producers, on long-term wheat supply contracts, according to a ministry statement. The play? Pitching our ports as a regional logistics hub to house and re-export grain across the Middle East and Africa.

We are among the world’s largest wheat importers, but our geography and infrastructure can make us a central node in the global commodities trade. This vision is part of Egypt’s long-term plan to establish a regional grain hub after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war breakout exposed the volatility of Black Sea supply lines, leading Egypt to start pitching the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) as a storage and re-export hub for Ukrainian grain bound for Africa in early 2025. Egyptian officials also met with Belarusian delegates in 2024 to anchor an Arab-African logistics center for grain import.

We’ve been busy: The diplomatic push builds on Abdelatty-Putin talks earlier this year on a combined grain and energy hub, with the Transport Ministry mulling a dedicated logistics corridor linking Egyptian ports to Russia’s Black Sea. A parallel agreement with Brazil to anchor a grain logistics zone in the SCZone suggests the same playbook is being run across multiple suppliers — backed by silo capacity already doubled to 3.4 mn tons, with a 6 mn-ton target ahead.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s a mild day in Cairo today, with a high of 31°C and a low of 19°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s several degrees cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 25°C and a low of 17°C.

The big story abroad

A US-Iran agreement has been “largely negotiated,” and is “subject to finalization,” according to US President DonaldTrump. His statement came following a call with regional leaders, including President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, who emphasized the importance of using diplomacy to resolve the situation.

What changed? The potential agreement will reportedly include a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a commitment from Tehran to discuss diluting or handing over its stockpile of enriched uranium. In return, Washington would scale back its naval blockade and sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

No truce in Lebanon: Israeli strikes killed and injured several people in Lebanon over the weekend, despite a ceasefire between Tel Aviv and Iran-backed Hezbollah. The attacks mostly concentrated on southern Lebanon, where tens of thousands have been displaced.

Welcome the new Fed chair: Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve over the weekend, vowing to introduce regime change during his time at the helm. Warsh steps into the role amid a deeply fractured central bank board and financial markets that are betting on a potential interest rate hike, as surging domestic inflation is further fueled by the Iran war. The Trump nominee has taken over from Jerome Powell, who has been subject to Trump’s attacks for some time now due to his stance on rates.

“I want Kevin to be totally independent,” Trump said during the swearing ceremony on Friday. That being said, Trump claimed that interest rates will be coming down “very quickly” later that same day.

Another attempt on Trump’s life? A shooter opened fire on officers near the White House yesterday before being intercepted and taken to a hospital, where he died.

Meanwhile, in the M&A world: Ridesharing player Uber is looking to takeover food delivery company Delivery Hero in a transaction that would value the firm over EUR 10 bn. A bid proposed by Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi to acquire the company at about EUR 33 per share was reportedly turned down. Delivery peer DoorDash is also in the picture, seeking to acquire Delivery Hero’s Middle East operations.

PLUS- New weight loss drug coming your way: US-based pharma and medical research company Eli Lilly announced that its weight-loss injection drug, retatrutide, cleared a late-stage trial. The drug has been proven to help patients lose 28.3% of their weight.