Good morning, friends. We kick off the last week of Ramadan with an issue focused on the local implications of the regional war. To safeguard us against global volatility, the Finance Ministry has significantly increased budget contingency reserves.
AND- We spoke with several experts to gauge how the war could impact investor confidence in our economy.
^^ We have more in the news well, below.
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SOVEREIGN DEBT — Foreign investors made a notable return to the Egyptian debt market on Thursday, snapping up some USD 1 bn in the secondary market, banking sources told EnterpriseAM. This ends a 13-day selling streak that saw outflows of roughly USD 6.7 bn since regional tensions began in late February.
But this uptick in appetite is yet to be reflected in lower yields, with an EGP 90 bn T-bill auction on Thursday accepting only EGP 68 bn after investors demanded aggressive yields. The high risk premium pushed the required yields up to between 29-30% — significantly higher than the Finance Ministry’s target range of 22-23%.
COMMODITIES — The Supply Ministry has capped the prices of unsubsidized bread in private bakeries to “regulate markets and facilitate citizens’ access to bread at fair and reasonable prices,” according to a statement. The maximum price for an 80g unsubsidized loaf is capped at EGP 2, a 60g loaf at EGP 1.5, and a 40g loaf at EGP 1. A similar ceiling was applied to “fino” bread, with a 50g roll capped at EGP 2, a 40g roll at EGP 1.5, and a 30g roll at EGP 1.
Why it matters: The government is reviving price controls on essential commodities to shield consumers from mounting inflation exacerbated by the ongoing Iran war, Reuters reports. Some industry players question whether the government can effectively control the unsubsidized market — a grain industry source warned that bakeries might resort to cutting quality to offset rising expenses, noting that wheat prices recently jumped by about EGP 2k per tonne to around EGP 16k following the fuel hikes. Others argue that the added cost per loaf is small enough for bakeries to absorb, adding that natural supply and demand should prevent a drop in bread quality.
FINANCE — Egypt is working to double its currency swap agreement with China to protect the economy from regional instability and falling Suez Canal revenues. Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Ati and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed a plan that allows Egypt to pay for Chinese imports in CNY during a phone call last Thursday.
Hunting liquidity: To bring in more foreign currency, Egypt is turning to the China Development Bank and plans to issue more “Panda bonds” following a successful USD 500 mn debut. The government also wants to boost Chinese investment in the Suez Canal Economic Zone to improve local manufacturing and technology. It is separately working with the World Bank and the African Development Bank to fund large infrastructure projects using private capital instead of relying on government funds.
Why it matters: The government is being pragmatic here. Paying for Chinese goods with CNY lets Egypt keep its hard-to-come-by USD in the bank — giving the country some much-needed breathing room to handle the financial hit from dropping Suez Canal revenues and foreign liquidity pulling out due to the ongoing war.
TRADE — The Agriculture Ministry is pushing to increase exports to Arab and Gulf markets, according to a statement. Agriculture Minister Alaa Farouk pointed to a spike in demand from Gulf importers for specific Egyptian crops, primarily peppers, lettuce, and lemons, as regional buyers scramble to diversify their fresh food sources. However, the ministry argues that this export drive will not trigger domestic shortages, as the push only applies to surplus crops.
Why it matters: This is a clear crisis-to-advantage maneuver. As traditional trade routes in the Gulf and Red Sea face volatility, the government is leveraging Egypt’s land and maritime links to become the primary breadbasket for the GCC. If exporters can maintain the high technical and sanitary standards required by Gulf authorities under these quasi-emergency conditions, the sector could see a permanent expansion of its market share in the region long after the current tensions subside.
EGP watch
The EGP slipped against the greenback on Thursday, breaking a two-day improvement streak. By the time banks closed for the weekend, the greenback changed hands at EGP 52.39 (buy) and EGP 52.49 (sell) at the National Bank of Egypt. At several private banks, rates climbed to EGP 52.50 (buy) and EGP 52.60 (sell).
The EGP’s retreat is attributed to continued import pressures and existing foreign currency obligations held by the Central Bank of Egypt, a source in the banking industry tells EnterpriseAM. Interbank FX activity cooled toward the end of the week, as banks relied more on direct inflows from remittances and foreign portfolio investment and less on the interbank market, another banking source tells us.
Despite continued pressure on USD liquidity in the market, there are no USD shortages, as foreign currency obligations declined in March compared to February, which had seen elevated USD-denominated maturities, one of our banking sources said.
Expect the USD/EGP exchange rate to stay near current levels over the next month if no major geopolitical developments take place, Al Ahly Pharos’ Hany Genena tells us, adding that current fluctuations reflect market flexibility and are no reason to worry.
The real test will be in the economy’s ability to get through weeks — and perhaps months — of tension without seeing prices and financing costs soar, economist Hany Abou El Fotouh tells us.
On the diplomatic front
President Abdel Fattah El Sisi firmly condemned recent Iranian strikes against the Gulf states, Jordan, and Iraq during a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Friday, according to an Ittihadiya statement. El Sisi was clear that Arab states have not supported nor participated in the war against Iran, but have instead actively backed diplomatic efforts to reach a solution.
Mediation remains on the table: Despite the firm tone, El Sisi reiterated Egypt’s readiness to mediate and push for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. He stressed that all parties must adhere to international law, respect national sovereignty, and exercise flexibility to return to the negotiating table. Pezeshkian expressed his appreciation for Egypt’s role in de-escalation, saying that Iran remains committed to brotherly relations and good neighborliness with Arab nations despite the current hostilities.
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PSA
WEATHER- Gladly, skies are clearing in Cairo today, with a high of 21°C and a low of 11°C, according to our favorite weather app.
Expect possible rain in Alexandria, with a high of 19°C and a low of 12°C.
The big story abroad
The regional war dominated headlines over the weekend. US President Donald Trump has called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to send warships to force open the Strait of Hormuz along with US naval forces. Meanwhile, Tehran claimed that the waterway is only shut to ships from “enemies.”
Another blow to oil supplies? Trump also threatened more strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island — a key oil export hub — despite previous comments indicating only military sites on the island would be targeted.
And in the world of AI: Tech giant Nvidia is looking to roll out a new chip specially geared to speed up AI responses in what could be a pivot from its usual one-size-fits-all approach to chipmaking. Rather than training AI models, the proposed chip will focus on “inference,” a process through which machine learning models draw conclusions from brand new data.





