Egypt is the second “Trump trade” after Russia, Charles Robertson, Renaissance Capital’s global chief economist, believes, according to an emailed research report. Robertson remains bullish on Egypt following an investor trip to Cairo as he believes the government has shown zeal in implementing reforms and it is being supported by international financial institutions. He says “shock over the scale of the devaluation and inflation worries are to blame for” the shift towards a less optimistic sentiment over the exchange rate. Robertson argues the EGP could strengthen to EGP 15.50 per USD 1 providing inflation is contained around 20-25%. Robertson’s view is that, bar inflation above 40%, there is little to justify sustained currency weakness from here. The Renaissance global chief economist also believes delivering mechanisms guaranteeing repatriation for pre-2013 investments would also be a positive step, but that international investors are on hold in increasing exposure, “awaiting evidence that the authorities can lift remaining capital controls without significant further Egyptian pound weakness.” He deviates from the projections of the IMF and Egyptian government of GDP growth of 4% in expecting the economy to grow only by 3% in FY2017-18 but to go over IMF projection in the following three years to double to 6% per annum.

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