The big Opec exit

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: GCC leaders meet in Jeddah + Emirates NBD’s issuance

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the accidental energy issue. It’s a big news day here at home after the UAE dropped a bombshell yesterday: Its exit from Opec.

The move, analysts say, was likely years in the making. It’s also going to give the UAE plenty of room to ramp up oil capacity (and production — when it’s able to) and use oil revenues to finance its diversification drive at a time when its economy might need the push.

We have everything you need to know about what the move means — and the importance of its timing — in the news well below.

As all of that is happening, Adnoc is planning to invest tens of bns of USD in the US to build its natural gas business, and S&P Global takes a look at how the war might have impacted the Gulf region’s renewables agenda.

Gulf leaders hold first meeting since war: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hosted a consultative meeting of Gulf Cooperation Council leaders in Jeddah yesterday — marking the first in-person gathering since the region was drawn into the Iran war two months ago, Saudi state media reports. Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed participated in the summit on behalf of President Mohamed bin Zayed, state news agency Wam reports.

Little surprise what topped the agenda: The summit focused on the fallout from Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting civilian infrastructure across the Gulf, with leaders jointly condemning the strikes as a violation of sovereignty, and calling for tighter coordination to protect regional security.

The talks also come amid criticism that the GCC’s response so far has been “the weakest in history,” Reuters quotes senior UAE diplomatic advisor Anwar Gargash as saying.

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WEATHER- Stay indoors, people: Temperatures are peaking at 38°C once again in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with the former seeing a low of 29°C, and the capital a low of 27°C. Our favorite weather app warns of dehydration and heat exposure risks if out in the sun for extended periods.

Watch this space

DEBT WATCH — Emirates NBD’s USD 750 mn AT1 saw initial price guidance land at around 6.75%, Zawya reports. Final pricing is expected shortly, with settlement for the debt slated for early May, to be listed on Nasdaq Dubai and Euronext Dublin.

Refresher: Emirates NBD had been sounding out investors for a non-call six-year AT1 issuance after tapping banks for a London roadshow. The move follows a busy funding streak, including a USD 2.25 bn syndicated facility, a USD 325 mn private raise, and multiple bond issuances, as part of a broader push to support capital and expansion. AT1s are the riskiest layer of bank capital debt, ranking below other kinds in the event of liquidation, but are still used to raise core tier-one capital without diluting shareholders’ stakes by issuing new equity.

Data point

4.9k — that’s how many ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWI) live in the UAE as of this year. The figure is projected to climb to 6.6k by 2031 — a 36% increase that keeps the UAE among the fastest-growing global wealth hubs, according to a new Knight Frank report (pdf). This is as the UAE is increasingly framed as a “receiving market” for globally mobile wealth, benefiting from tax competitiveness and lifestyle appeal, while Abu Dhabi is also emerging as a cultural and prime real estate node.

With the increase in UHNWIs comes an increase in luxury property prices: Luxury residential prices jumped 25.1% in 2025, driving a 9.4% regional surge and record super-prime (USD 10 mn+) sales as global buyers continue to pour into the emirate.

The near-term picture is less clear-cut: The report flags that regional tensions have “unsettled sentiment” but stops short of calling a reversal. That broadly tracks with what we’ve been reporting: early signs point to softer residency demand and potential outflows, though analysts told us it’s “premature” to call a lasting shift in wealth patterns.

PSA

You’ll soon be able to call an Uber in RAK: Residents and visitors in Ras Al Khaimah will soon be able to book taxis and limousines directly through the Uber app under a new agreement with the emirate’s transport authority, according to a statement.

The big story abroad

Our Opec exit is dominating the front pages this morning, as the foreign press tries to understand the move and its implications for energy markets and the region. We dive into the decision, what it means, and what comes next in the news well, below.

MEANWHILE- The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates this evening. Pundits widely expect it to leave rates unchanged.

AND- Transatlantic unity was the main takeaway from King Charles’ address to the UScongress. The UK monarch urged the US to move away from isolation and highlighted the importance of Washington’s participation with Europe, Nato allies, and Ukraine, calling on the countries to “ignore the clarion calls to become ever more inward-looking.”

Drama in the tech world: Elon Musk’s legal feud with OpenAI founders is heating up after they faced off in court — the Tesla founder is claiming that the founders behind the ChatGPT maker broke pledges to remain a nonprofit AI research lab.

And speaking of OpenAI: Investor confidence in the AI boom wavered yesterday following OpenAI’s failure to meet its targets for users and revenues. OpenAI-linked firms, including Oracle and SoftBank, faced a market sell-off soon after, with some shares sliding over 4%.

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The big exit

The UAE’s exit from Opec and Opec+ has been a long time coming, analysts tell us, but it comes at a critical time, with oil markets heavily disrupted and the UAE’s economy under unexpected pressure due to the regional war.

The UAE — an Opec+ founding member of nearly 60 years — has long had differences with the cartel over restrictive production quotas that have kept it from producing at its full capacity. “The outcome has likely long been in the making,” global oil markets strategist and former head of research at Onyx group Harry Tchilinguirian tells us.

“The UAE needed to unshackle its output from a quota system — not only for the good of its flagship Murban futures contract, but also for its longer-term economic development, using oil revenues to finance its longer-term transition,” Tchilinguirian says. This is despite Opec making a shift towards capacity-based quotas, which were designed to better align targets with real production.

The change to its quota strategy — and recent quota hikes — were more like a bandaid than a real solution. “In previous Opec meetings, agreed upward changes with Saudi Arabia to the UAE’s production baseline level and quota were a short-term fix to a larger, long-term issue — namely, the UAE’s expanding production capacity to provide the necessary liquidity for the physically deliverable IFAD Murban futures contract,” he adds.

The keyword, “flexibility,” is right there in the UAE’s statement on the news. “The decision reflects a policy-driven evolution in the UAE’s approach, enhancing flexibility to respond to market dynamics while continuing to contribute to stability in a measured and responsible manner,” the statement said. No matter what Opec’s quota was based on, it was a quota — a restriction that prevented the UAE from turning its taps on or off (or ramping up production) whenever it needed to.

IN CONTEXT- The UAE had been planning to grow its production capacity to 5 mn bbl / d by 2027, up from 4.85 mn today. It’s also among several countries who have had to compensate for overproduction, with the country recently committing to a stepped series of make-up cuts from October 2025 through June 2026 to offset barrels produced above its Opec+ quota.

That flexibility is needed now more than ever: The UAE’s economy was forecast to be the fastest growing in the GCC this year, and now it’s expected by many to either stagnate or shrink in 2026 due to the impact of the war on the non-oil sector and oil market disruptions.

“Greater output flexibility may help offset slowdowns in sectors such as tourism, trade, and real estate, while maximizing hydrocarbon revenues and capitalizing on market-disruption

[windows] after the strait is fully open,” MENA economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod wrote in a note (pdf) shared with EnterpriseAM.

Right now, disruptions mean that the UAE is only exporting about half of its production, so the move is unlikely to lead to any changes in the near term until the Strait blockade ends. But once it does, “headline GDP growth rates will be shifted substantially higher, further improving metrics like fiscal balances (which are in surplus anyway),” Emirates NBD’s Chief Economist and Head of Research Edward Bell.

Let’s be clear about what “under pressure” really means

The UAE has plenty of liquidity — S&P Global estimates liquid assets amounting to about 211% of GDP — but the bigger problem, as we’ve been saying time and time again, is what the disruption and the hit to its “safe haven” image will do to its non-oil sector.

“Recent indications of capital outflows and a slowdown related to the war create a need for financial injections,” Al Gaood writes. “This is evident in rising debt issuance, government support measures, and reported discussions of potential external financial arrangements (e.g., a Fed swap line),” he adds. “Higher oil production could directly sustain fiscal capacity and support private-sector activity.”

This is also about its energy strategy and AI ambitions

The UAE has been saying for a while now that the world needs to invest much more in energy. Adnoc CEO and Industry and Advanced Technology Minister Sultan Al Jaber said it again yesterday: “At Adnoc, our focus is unchanged: meeting the growing energy needs of our customers and partners around the world with reliability, responsibility, and the ambition to deliver more… across oil, gas, chemicals, and low carbon and renewable energy.”

Al Jaber has said it many times before: The data center and AI boom that’s coming is going to need more energy — and a lot of it. So as policymakers fight about fossil fuels and renewables, the UAE has been pulling on one thread and one thread only: The world is going to need more energy, not less, and demand is going nowhere. He said at Adipec last November that oil consumption is expected to remain above 100 mn bbl / d beyond 2040, while LNG demand is projected to rise by 50%.

“We believe the world is currently undersupplied,” Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said in an interview with CNBC (watch, runtime: 08:55). “This situation would require agility, and someone to move quickly,” he added.

Officials also want you to know what it’s not about…

“This has nothing to do with any of our brothers and friends within the group… We have the highest respect for the Saudis for leading Opec,” Al Mazrouei also said.

The UAE chose now to make the announcement to avoid a severe impact on oil prices and on Opec cartel members, Al Mazrouei added, citing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shortages it’s leading to in the market.

“We believe that having the freedom to take the decision, and acting as a responsible producer to do our part in balancing the market is something we can do better alone than as part of a group,” he explained.

What the move means for Opec

Mechanically, the exit removes 3-4 mn bbl / d of swing capacity, the ability to respond when Hormuz closes or pipelines rupture, Wolfgang Lehmacher, former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum tells EnterpriseAM.

Meanwhile, the rest of the group looks thinner where it counts: Iran and Iraq have little meaningful spare capacity — which means Opec’s ability to smooth supply imbalances is directly weakened without the UAE in the mix, Carnegie’s Sergey Vakulenko told Reuters.

Reality check: “Most participants lack excess capacity and need pooled coordination as protection against volatility they cannot absorb individually,” Lehmacher notes.

And the volatility question is now front and center: A structurally weaker Opec points to a potentially more volatile oil market once current disruptions ease, as the group’s ability to manage supply diminishes, Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon told Reuters.

The problem for Opec is if the move triggers a “further disintegration of the group,” Capital Economics’ Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley writes in a note seen by EnterpriseAM.

“If other producers begin prioritizing market share over quota discipline, Opec’s ability to manage orderly markets through coordinated supply adjustments may increasingly be called into question,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. If discipline erodes too far, the group’s capacity to shape the market shifts from enforcement to mere signaling.

The next phase of the oil market may be less about coordination and more about competition: Monitor how the UAE manages its production — and whether Saudi Arabia adjusts its strategy to compensate.

Meanwhile… Adnoc is doubling down on its US natgas push

Adnoc is still committed to its US gas push: The state-backed giant is lining up tens of bns in USD to develop its natural gas business in the US through its overseas investment arm XRG, XRG’s Chief Investment Officer Nameer Siddiqui told the Financial Times.

Some 29 potential agreements — including controlled transactions, drilling joint ventures, and minority stakes — are currently under review, Siddiqui said. These include projects covering production, pipelines, processing, liquefaction, and potentially regasification and pipeline infrastructure.

“The US is a market where we want to be bold,” Siddiqui noted, adding that “this is unwavering, although obviously we will only do that under the right return expectations.”

This isn’t new — but it’s important given the timing and regional context. The oil giant has been planning to increase its US investments to USD 440 bn over the next decade, with USD 60 bn worth of investment agreements signed last year to develop existing oil and gas fields as well as explore new ones. It also said it is eyeing USD 9 bn worth of natural gas asset acquisitions. XRG also took an 11.7% stake in the first phase of NextDecade’s USD 18 bn Rio Grande LNG export facility in Texas last year — marking its first direct investment in US gas infrastructure.

Timing? There could be a bigger opening for a deep-pocketed Middle Eastern player as banks are stepping back from the US LNG market over fears of global oversupply, Alex Munton, director of global gas at Rapidan Energy Group, told the FT.

Plus: Recent regional headwinds have made global exposure and hedging all the more critical as supply chains here at home become more difficult to manage. Adnoc has been relying on its Habshan-Fujairah pipeline to get some of its crude out, but the pipeline only has capacity for about half of its usual volume of crude exports. The company has since also had to rely on overseas storage to get crude to markets like South Korea.

For Adnoc, more US (and natgas) exposure builds optionality to its portfolio and helps realize its diversification and lower-carbon targets. XRG has been building a global platform, backed by its parent firm’s USD 150 bn capex budget through 2030, targeting a top-five global position in gas and petrochemicals. It has nearly doubled its enterprise value to USD 151 bn and recently closed a EUR 14.7 bn takeover of Germany’s Covestro.

And the focus is now purely on natural gas, after ExxonMobil put its proposed low-carbon hydrogen facility in Texas — where XRG was set to acquire a 35% stake — on hold.

Undimmed

While the regional conflict likely pushed back the timelines of some renewables projects, it ultimately reinforced the strategic case for renewables, says S&P Global. The sequencing of projects and how capital gets deployed could shift, depending on how long the conflict runs, the agency says. However, projects are still moving ahead in spite of the geopolitics.

Even in a prolonged-conflict scenario, GCC governments are expected to keep renewables as a central feature of their long-term plans. Renewable energy can act as a tool for energy security and economic diversification, while allowing governments to meet local energy consumption and freeing up more barrels for export, particularly as oil and gas prices remain elevated. “This is particularly relevant in markets such as Saudi Arabia, where solar, wind, and storage costs are among the lowest globally outside China,” S&P says.

The strain is mostly logistical: Delays in moving equipment through Hormuz are beginning to push project schedules, but most projects are protected by schedule-extension and force majeure clauses in their power purchase agreements, which preserve project economics over the medium term. Solar in the GCC is also relatively insulated from commodity-price swings: Sites are highly automated and spare parts are increasingly sourced locally, as Chinese manufacturers set up production facilities inside the region.

The next phase

Big tech is emerging as the decisive driver of demand. Power-hungry data centers and AI infrastructure are pulling for large-scale, reliable clean energy, and corporate buyers accounted for roughly half of global contracted volumes last year. As these offtakers scale up, integrated solar-plus-storage systems are becoming the default model for around-the-clock supply.

The real bottleneck is the grid: Demand in the Gulf doesn’t dip when the sun sets, and cooling loads keep consumption elevated well into the evening, creating a structural mismatch with intermittent solar output. That’s why battery storage is shifting from a “nice-to-have” towards becoming core infrastructure.

FSRA tightens reins. rules

ADGM’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority has introduced new rules for insurers, intermediaries, managers, and ins. special purpose vehicles in a sweeping package (pdf) of ins. rule changes first floated for consultation earlier this year. The proposal was pitched as a move to align ADGM with International Association of Ins. Supervisors principles.

For reinsurers, rules have been tightened pretty significantly:

Firms must conduct creditworthiness and diversification checks as part of comprehensive systems for selecting and monitoring reinsurers;
Reinsurers must have clear documentation of principal economic and coverage terms for every contract;
Insurers must consider how reins. contracts operate in an insolvency scenario;
Reinsurers and ceding insurers must finalize contracts before the date the coverage begins;
Firms are required to update the regulator should an issue arise that may affect the orderly operation of reins. contracts.

Consumer-protection rules were also tightened: The regulator has called on insurers to withdraw any marketing material that is unclear, unfair, or misleading, while requiring promotional materials to undergo an independent review by someone other than the person who created them — if it’s an advertising firm, then that would be the ins. firm itself, and vice versa. It has also introduced clearer product-governance expectations, including defining target client segments and identifying which products may not suit.

Plus: climate risk is now formally on the agenda. Insurers and other authorized firms must assess whether climate-related financial risks are material to their business model, financial position, or ability to meet regulatory obligations. If they are, firms are now expected to monitor and govern those risks while also submitting regular disclosures.

Some firms get lighter reporting burdens: Captive insurers (vehicles typically used by corporates to insure group risks) will no longer face routine quarterly regulatory returns unless it’s specifically requested by the regulator.

NMDC, Aldar, e&, NCTH, and DIB’s earnings are in

NMDC Energy reports revenue growth despite regional tensions

NMDC’s EPC unit NMDC Energy saw its net income drop 63% y-o-y — based on our owncalculations — to AED 80 mn in 1Q 2026 as regional tensions hit, according to its earnings release (pdf). Its revenues, meanwhile, climbed 33% to AED 5 bn over the same period, supported by strong backlog execution.

The company did not face interruptions, however, and is in a good position for the remainder of the year, it said, adding that its backlog stands at AED 35.3 bn as of the end of March, while its project pipeline reached AED 67 bn. The UAE remained the dominant contributor, accounting for 74% of total revenue.

REMEMBER- The firm was planning to enter new markets including Nigeria and Europe, CEO Ahmed Al Dhaheri said earlier, after rolling out new offices in Shanghai and Taiwan last year, according to its management and discussion analysis report (pdf).

Aldar leans on backlog as sales cool

Abu Dhabi developer Aldar turned in a relatively strong 1Q despite softer activity, with net income rising 20% y-o-y to AED 2.3 bn and revenue up 12% to AED 8.7 bn, according to its financials (pdf).

Growth drivers: In a separate earnings release (pdf), the company pointed to backlog conversion and resilient recurring income from its investment platform as the main drivers. Its development backlog hit a record AED 72.1 bn, while income-generating assets grew to AED 52 bn.

But there are early signs of moderation: Group sales fell 25% y-o-y to AED 6.7 bn, with UAE sales down 30% as launch activity slowed and March demand softened. Aldar framed this as a “disciplined approach” to launches amid evolving market conditions.

Still, demand hasn’t disappeared — 88% of Aldar’s UAE sales, or AED 5.3 bn, came from overseas and expat buyers, and recent launches like Yas Park Place saw 80% of units snapped up within a week.

Need a refresher on the broader market? Abu Dhabi clocked AED 66 bn in real estate transactions in 1Q, with activity “pausing to take stock, not under structural pressure,” analysts told us, suggesting demand has held up despite the regional backdrop. That said, activity is likely to ease further in the coming months as investors turn more cautious, with higher construction costs and logistical challenges also potentially weighing on project timelines.

A cushion from the investment side: Aldar Investment posted 14% revenue growth to AED 2.1 bn, supported by high occupancy (mid-90s across most segments), firm rental rates, and contributions from recent acquisitions. This includes recent transactions such as its JV with Mubadala acquiring The Link in Masdar City and the AED 650 mn purchase of logistics warehouses in Kezad from AD Ports.

Liquidity is giving it room to stay on the front foot: The group ended the quarter with AED 33.2 bn in available liquidity and has been active in capital markets, including USD 2 bn in hybrid issuances and a new AED 5 bn sustainability-linked facility, positioning it to keep deploying even as conditions evolve.

NCTH earnings cool as gains normalize, but revenue holds up

Abu Dhabi’s National Corporation for Tourism and Hotels (NCTH) reported a softer 1Q on the bottom line even as revenues continued to climb. Net income fell 46.6% y-o-y to AED 96.6 mn, while revenue rose 8.4% y-o-y to AED 615.9 mn, according to its management discussion and analysis report (pdf).

The drop largely reflects last year’s one-off gain from a bargain acquisition — tied to a reverse transaction in which Alpha Dhabi raised its stake to 73.7% and transferred four hotel assets to NCTH — suggesting this quarter marks a normalization rather than a deterioration in core operations. Hotels remained the main revenue engine at over AED 306 mn, with catering and other services also posting gains.

But the backdrop is getting tougher: As we’ve covered, the tourism sector has been under pressure since the war, with hotel occupancy dropping from around 90% to as low as 16% last month and some properties temporarily shutting to cut costs. Policymakers have since stepped in with targeted support, including Ajman’s tourism fee deferrals and fine exemptions and Dubai’s broader AED 1 bn relief plan, with a federal, sector-specific package also in the works.

DIB earnings stall as higher impairments offset 13% revenue growth

Dubai Islamic Bank’s (DIB) net income was relatively unchanged y-o-y coming in at AED 1.8 bn in 1Q 2026, even as revenue rose 13% y-o-y to AED 3.5 bn, according to its management discussion and analysis report (pdf).

Top-line growth was fueled by a 30% jump in non-funded income and a 5% rise in funded income, pointing to improving diversification. But higher impairment charges — which have also weighed on other lenders this quarter — and margin compression in a lower-rate environment capped bottom-line growth.

The balance sheet kept expanding, with net financing and sukuk investments up 3% YTD to AED 364 bn and deposits reaching AED 322 bn.

e& leans on scale, diversification to power through 1Q

Telecoms group e& reported a steady start to the year, with net income rising 3.9% y-o-y to AED 2.9 bn (excluding one-offs), while revenue climbed 15.1% to AED 19.4 bn, driven by strong performance across its home and international telecom verticals, according to its financial highlights. Subscriber numbers jumped 30.8% to 248 mn, reflecting continued scale-up and demand for digital and AI-led services.

CEO Masood Mahmood flagged the group’s “agile business model” and international diversification as key to navigating regional disruption during the quarter, as geopolitical tensions weighed on business activity in March. The group continued to deepen its footprint, with Ufone securing 5G spectrum in Pakistan, a new enterprise AI push with IBM, and e& Money landing a UAE Central Bank finance company license, opening the door to lending and a broader fintech play.

Dividends getting a lift: Shareholders approved a higher 2025 payout of 90 fils per share, up from 86 fils. The company flagged plans to increase this further to 95 fils in 2026 under its updated dividend policy.

Vara gives the greenlight to more firms + UAE firm makes moves in Egypt

Firms get green light from Vara

Daman’s virtual asset arm secures Vara license: Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority has handed out several virtual asset broker-dealer licenses — one to Daman Virtual Asset Brokerage, the virtual assets arm of Dubai-based asset manager Daman Investments, and the other to Bahrain’s ARP Digital, according to press releases here (pdf) and here. Daman is planning on launching its crypto platform in mid-May and is eventually eyeing expansion outside the UAE, while the move marks ARP Digital’s first expansion out of Bahrain.

UAE firm makes industrial moves in Egypt

A new UAE-backed factories complex in Egypt in the pipeline: UAE-based investment firm Alpha Smart inked an agreement with Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone to develop a USD 100 mn integrated industrial complex spanning 500k sqm in Egypt’s Ain Sokhna area, according to a statement.

The details: The project, to be implemented in two phases over six years, is expected to attract an additional USD 150 mn in industrial investments. The complex will offer fully equipped factory units that allow companies to begin operations within 90 days, alongside logistics, administrative, and commercial facilities. It’ll also include a 25 MW power facility.

Citadel is heading to DIFC

US-based multinational hedge fund Citadel has received the regulatory green light to start operating from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources it says are familiar with the matter. The firm — which manages USD 67 bn in assets — first revealed plans to move to the emirate late last year. Citadel had indicated that its fixed income and macro teams would be the first to set up shop in the Dubai outpost.

Muted 1Q for MENA debt markets

MENA bond issuance fell 12% y-o-y to USD 48.1 bn in 1Q 2026 as escalating geopolitical tensions cooled market activity, according to LSEG data. The number of issuances fell 11% y-o-y, with the GCC market effectively grinding to a halt in March as the regional conflict broke out. Issuances were already subdued because of Ramadan starting in mid-February, but sentiment and activity took a bigger hit throughout March, with USD-denominated sukuk and bond sales from the GCC broadly muted for most of the month.

A quarter of two halves: “Issuance dynamics were uneven over the quarter. January saw robust activity, while February was broadly in line with seasonal norms, despite coinciding partially with Ramadan,” said Bashar Al Natoor, Fitch Ratings’ global head of Islamic finance. The post-Ramadan rebound that markets typically see was undermined this year, making March activity “materially weaker,” Al Natoor said.

REMEMBER- A war premium brought a record-breaking start in GCC borrowing activity to a halt as regional markets began pricing at a war premium following the outbreak of the conflict with Iran, Fitch Ratings previously said. Regional debt markets had been on track to break the USD 1.25 tn mark this year, up from USD 1.1 tn in issuances last year, but a 20-30 bps rise in spreads made borrowing costs just high enough to make most issues uneconomical in the near term.

Saudi Arabia was in the lead before activity stalled: The Kingdom accounted for some 58% of total bond proceeds raised during the quarter, and was home to the two largest issuers by value, the data shows. Saudi Arabia raised USD 32.54 bn across 42 issuances, Kuwait Financial Center (Markaz) said in a report earlier this week. That activity includes a USD 11.42 bn four-tranche bond sale in early January, as well as Saudi Aramco raising USD 3.95 bn. The UAE accounted for 27% of all activity during the quarter, with the Abu Dhabi government raising USD 2.99 bn.

The top 10 leaderboard tells the story: Nine of the quarter’s 10 largest MENA bond transactions closed in January, with just one issuance — Abu Dhabi’s February sale — making it into the top 10. Saudi issuers took seven of the top 10 spots, including the Saudi Electricity Company (USD 2.4 bn), Saudi Telecom (USD 2 bn), and Riyad Bank (USD 1 bn). The Kingdom of Bahrain (USD 1.3 bn), Kuwait Finance House (USD 1 bn), and Emirates NBD (USD 1 bn) rounded out the list. All 10 of the largest issuances were USD-denominated.

Corporate issuances took the lead, raising USD 32 bn during the quarter, while sovereigns and agencies raised USD 16 bn. Financial institutions accounted for 44% of total proceeds, according to the data. Meanwhile, Islamic bond issuances in the region fell 17% y-o-y to USD 14.6 bn, accounting for 30% of total bond proceeds — the lowest share in three years.

A recovery in issuance activity hinges on geopolitics and how the conflict develops from here. “The key challenge at present is the uncertainty surrounding the duration and trajectory of the conflict,” Al Natoor said. “Until there is greater clarity on whether tensions stabilize, escalate, or persist, visibility on the timing and strength of any recovery in issuance activity remains limited.”

That recovery hasn’t quite materialized yet: ADX-listed healthcare provider Burjeel Holdings put a planned USD 1.5 bn Islamic bond issuance on hold due to the war and weaker market conditions. “Spreads have changed,” CEO Shamsheer Vayalil said earlier this week.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are mixed in early trading this morning, as investors digest the tech selloff on Wall Street a day earlier, triggered by OpenAI missing its 1Q targets. Investors will be watching closely for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision as the central bank concludes its two-day meeting later today.

ADX	9,836	+0.1% (YTD: -1.6%)
DFM	5,858	-0.2% (YTD: -3.1%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,712	-0.2% (YTD: -3.6%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	3.9% 1 yr
TASI	11,180	+0.1% (YTD: +6.6%)
EGX30	52,231	-0.9% (YTD: +24.8%)
S&P 500	7,139	-0.5% (YTD: +4.3%)
FTSE 100	10,333	+0.1% (YTD: +3.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,836	-0.4% (YTD: +0.7%)
Brent crude	USD 111.26	+2.8%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.68	-0.4%
Gold	USD 4,611	+0.1%
BTC	USD 76,345	-0.9% (YTD: -12.9%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.70	0.0% (YTD: -1.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.72	0.0% (YTD: -0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.83	-1.1% (YTD: +19.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. The index is down 1.6% YTD.

In the green: Invest Bank (+12.1%), Orascom Construction (+9.4%), and Gulf Cement Co (+8.0%).

In the red: Alpha Dhabi Holding (-4.9%), Umm Al Qaiwain General Investment Co (-4.9%), and Al Khaleej Investment (-4.8%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.2% on turnover of AED 740.1 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.2%.

CALENDAR

APRIL

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

28-29 Apr (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

MAY

4-7 May (Wednesday-Friday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, ICC Hall, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

15-17 May (Friday-Sunday): Art Dubai, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

22 May-7 June (Friday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Desalination Forum, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

17 June (Wednesday): Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

5-7 October (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

2-6 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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