THIS MORNING: GCC leaders meet in Jeddah + Emirates NBD pushes ahead with AT1 issuance

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the accidental energy issue. It’s a big news day here at home after the UAE dropped a bombshell yesterday: Its exit from Opec.

The move, analysts say, was likely years in the making. It’s also going to give the UAE plenty of room to ramp up oil capacity (and production — when it’s able to) and use oil revenues to finance its diversification drive at a time when its economy might need the push.

We have everything you need to know about what the move means — and the importance of its timing — in the news well below.

As all of that is happening, Adnoc is planning to invest tens of bns of USD in the US to build its natural gas business, and S&P Global takes a look at how the war might have impacted the Gulf region’s renewables agenda.

Gulf leaders hold first meeting since war: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hosted a consultative meeting of Gulf Cooperation Council leaders in Jeddah yesterday — marking the first in-person gathering since the region was drawn into the Iran war two months ago, Saudi state media reports. Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed participated in the summit on behalf of President Mohamed bin Zayed, state news agency Wam reports.

Little surprise what topped the agenda: The summit focused on the fallout from Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting civilian infrastructure across the Gulf, with leaders jointly condemning the strikes as a violation of sovereignty, and calling for tighter coordination to protect regional security.

The talks also come amid criticism that the GCC’s response so far has been “the weakest in history,” Reuters quotes senior UAE diplomatic advisor Anwar Gargash as saying.

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WEATHER- Stay indoors, people: Temperatures are peaking at 38°C once again in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with the former seeing a low of 29°C, and the capital a low of 27°C. Our favorite weather app warns of dehydration and heat exposure risks if out in the sun for extended periods.

Watch this space

DEBT WATCH — Emirates NBD’s USD 750 mn AT1 saw initial price guidance land at around 6.75%, Zawya reports. Final pricing is expected shortly, with settlement for the debt slated for early May, to be listed on Nasdaq Dubai and Euronext Dublin.

Refresher: Emirates NBD had been sounding out investors for a non-call six-year AT1 issuance after tapping banks for a London roadshow. The move follows a busy funding streak, including a USD 2.25 bn syndicated facility, a USD 325 mn private raise, and multiple bond issuances, as part of a broader push to support capital and expansion. AT1s are the riskiest layer of bank capital debt, ranking below other kinds in the event of liquidation, but are still used to raise core tier-one capital without diluting shareholders’ stakes by issuing new equity.

Data point

4.9k — that’s how many ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWI) live in the UAE as of this year. The figure is projected to climb to 6.6k by 2031 — a 36% increase that keeps the UAE among the fastest-growing global wealth hubs, according to a new Knight Frank report (pdf). This is as the UAE is increasingly framed as a “receiving market” for globally mobile wealth, benefiting from tax competitiveness and lifestyle appeal, while Abu Dhabi is also emerging as a cultural and prime real estate node.

With the increase in UHNWIs comes an increase in luxury property prices: Luxury residential prices jumped 25.1% in 2025, driving a 9.4% regional surge and record super-prime (USD 10 mn+) sales as global buyers continue to pour into the emirate.

The near-term picture is less clear-cut: The report flags that regional tensions have “unsettled sentiment” but stops short of calling a reversal. That broadly tracks with what we’ve been reporting: early signs point to softer residency demand and potential outflows, though analysts told us it’s “premature” to call a lasting shift in wealth patterns.

PSA

You’ll soon be able to call an Uber in RAK: Residents and visitors in Ras Al Khaimah will soon be able to book taxis and limousines directly through the Uber app under a new agreement with the emirate’s transport authority, according to a statement.

The big story abroad

Our Opec exit is dominating the front pages this morning, as the foreign press tries to understand the move and its implications for energy markets and the region. We dive into the decision, what it means, and what comes next in the news well, below.

MEANWHILE- The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates this evening. Pundits widely expect it to leave rates unchanged.

AND- Transatlantic unity was the main takeaway from King Charles’ address to the UScongress. The UK monarch urged the US to move away from isolation and highlighted the importance of Washington’s participation with Europe, Nato allies, and Ukraine, calling on the countries to “ignore the clarion calls to become ever more inward-looking.”

Drama in the tech world: Elon Musk’s legal feud with OpenAI founders is heating up after they faced off in court — the Tesla founder is claiming that the founders behind the ChatGPT maker broke pledges to remain a nonprofit AI research lab.

And speaking of OpenAI: Investor confidence in the AI boom wavered yesterday following OpenAI’s failure to meet its targets for users and revenues. OpenAI-linked firms, including Oracle and SoftBank, faced a market sell-off soon after, with some shares sliding over 4%.

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