UAE braces for HNWI outflows this year as geopolitical tensions shake “safe haven” image

Last year, the UAE was set to be one of the biggestdestinations for high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), with some 9.8k expected to flock to the country for its lifestyle benefits, tax regime, and flexible visas. That was especially the case due to an exodus from places like the UK on the back of prolonged economic stagnation, steep hikes to capital gains and inheritance taxes, and tighter rules on non-domiciled residents and family wealth structures.

Fast forward to 2026, and many HNWIs in the UAE have either left or are looking into other locations for long-term residency, though it’s not clear yet how permanent that exit is. “The UAE, which has traditionally been the top destination for migrating m’naires post-Covid, is expected to see a large net outflow of HNWIs in 2026,” Andrew Amoils, head of research at New World Wealth, tells EnterpriseAM.

Inquiries for the UAE residence program fell 13% in 1Q 2026, compared to 4Q 2025, according to data Henley & Partners shared with EnterpriseAM. We’ve also already seen reports of some 30k British residents leaving since the war started, as well as more than 52k Indian nationals leaving the UAE and the wider Gulf region in early March. Much of this movement, however, is linked to short-term disruption. From the US, more than 40k residents left the broader Middle East.

Yes, but — this might be temporary: “It would still be premature to conclude that recent developments will lead to any meaningful or lasting reallocation of wealth or mobility patterns,” a spokesperson from Henley & Partners said. They pointed to the fact that most decisions around residency and investment are typically driven by long-term considerations rather than short-term shocks.

“Periods of geopolitical uncertainty typically led families to review contingency plans, but these discussions do not necessarily result in immediate or permanent relocation decisions,” the firm added.

The war is a major factor, but there are other reasons HNWIs might look elsewhere

Several issues are at play here. The obvious one is the uncertainty around the war over the past month or so, and the risk of geopolitical tensions escalating. Another is that m'naires and b’naires have historically treated the UAE as an initial relocation point rather than a long-term residence, Amoils said.

Stricter compliance rules and rising costs of golden visas also play a role, Amolis added. “For years, moving to the UAE was the ‘easy button’ for global mobility among the ultra-wealthy,” he explained. “However, the landscape has tightened as global pressure and increased scrutiny from international bodies have forced the UAE to implement more rigorous checks and controls, while costs of entry have also risen substantially.”

The boom in property prices over the past few years also adds to the list of potential deterrents for HNWIs. “Apartment prices in affluent parts of Dubai now exceed USD 10k per square meter,” Amolis said, noting that several European and US cities are comparatively more affordable.

Where will they go?

Italy is emerging as a tempting alternative for UAE-linked wealth reconsidering long-term residency, Armand Arton, a consultant advising ultra-wealthy families on relocation and citizenship planning, told The Guardian. Under its flat-tax regime, foreign residents can pay EUR 300k annually on overseas income.

Inquiries for Italy’s residence program rose 5% between 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026, and it now ranks as Henley & Partners’ ninth most popular residence and citizenship program globally, with the top five applicants being from the US, Turkey, India, the UK, and China, the firm told us.

Buyers are shifting from lifestyle or second-home purchases toward full residency decisions, Diletta Giorgolo, who runs Italy Sotheby’s International Realty in Milan, told The Guardian.

Interest among wealthy Dubai-based expats in Switzerland has also picked up since the outbreak of the war, the Financial Times reports. Local officials in Zug say interest has risen sharply, with finance director Heinz Tännler noting increased inquiries as the canton draws capital seeking stability.

Other places seeing increased inquiries for both short-term and long-term accommodation from wealthy Middle Eastern residents include London, Monaco, and Marbella, Bloomberg reports.

The UK — which has seen a massive exodus in recent years, especially to the UAE — could also choose to capitalize on the current unstable environment for HNWIs in the Gulf and pull some of its residents back. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves signaled possible tax rule changes ahead of her US trip aimed at reducing friction for US-linked and globally mobile taxpayers considering relocation to Britain, the Financial Times reports separately. She has also framed the UK as “open for business.”

This might be more about optionality than anything else

Henley & Partners said it is seeing increased engagement among UAE-based clients focused on building multi-jurisdiction residency options rather than a structural shift away from the country. These adjustments reflect a desire for short-term flexibility — whether that means spending more time in alternative locations or simply securing additional residence pathways.

This reflects a wider structural shift in global wealth planning. Families are now treating residency and jurisdictional exposure like a diversified asset portfolio — what Kroll’s Global Head of Investigations Tom Everett-Heath calls “decentralization in the face of governance unpredictability,” the Financial Times reports elsewhere.

The UAE is also widely expected to act fast to draw people back in

Fitch Solutions’ BMI has recently said it expects policymakers to lean harder on the same toolkit used before — more visa liberalization, visible security spending, and lifestyle incentives — to keep expat inflows steady.

It has already started to offer incentives and support measures for businesses, including deferring customs payments and waiving some duties entirely. It also hinted at "streamlining" the residency and visa process for expats, without going into detail on how it might do that.

Our take? Expect expat- and residency-focused incentives to follow soon.