Wartime Hormuz crossings peaked over the weekend, but it's a far cry from peacetime rates

A CAVEAT- Vessel tracking is being hampered by electronic interference, while some tankers are switching off AIS transponders in high-risk waters — reducing the reliability and timeliness of observed movements reported in the media. “AIS tracking shows ships in locations where they are not and can disrupt compliance checks with false sanctioned flagging,” senior purchaser at Unicore Sean Burgin previously told EnterpriseAM.

Iran’s “non-hostile” club: Countries like China, Russia, India, and Pakistan have been allowed transit under the “aligned with Iran” logic, with negotiated passages with countries like Malaysia and Thailand — alongside ships carrying “ essential goods.” After a day of the exemption, an oil tanker chartered by Malaysia’s oil giant Petronas and loaded with 1 mn barrels of Basrah Heavy crude was seen passing the strait. Other vessels linked to Malta, India, and Oman have also passed through recently.

Iraq also announced it is exempt from crossing restrictions, potentially unlocking up to 3 mn bbl / d of exports — though it remains unclear whether this applies to all cargoes or only Iraqi tankers, and whether shipowners will take the risk to lift them.

Access is also becoming priced: Some tankers have reportedly paid around USD 1 per barrel through Iran’s toll booth play.