Outbidding Asian hubs

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OPENING NOTE

TACO?

Good morning, wonderful people. Well, it’s been nearly 17 hours and the hell that The Donald promised in his unhinged, interfaith Easter message is yet to come to pass. Praise be to Allah, indeed. The risk this time is that it’s not a TACO play — he’s set Tuesday as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The private sector is feeling the pinch of the US-Israel war, with the purchasing managers’ indexes for the UAE, Saudi, and Egypt in particularly grim territory. The Saudi PMI fared the worst: It’s in negative territory for the first time since August 2020 as new orders crashed. The UAE gauge fared better, but was the worst in nearly four years, while sentiment in Egypt is at an all-time low.

Adding to the drumbeat of grim news: The 1H 2026 IPO window is now largely closed, bankers tell us. Companies in Saudi don’t want to pay a premium to raise debt. And Emirates Global Aluminum, the UAE’s biggest non-oil-and-gas industrial outfit, says it could take 12 months to bring its Al Taweelah facility back online.

From Cairo to Brussels and New York, governments and investors don’t know which way is up. Egypt just moved to WFH Sundays, global private equity players say the war and the AI overhang have poisoned exits, the EU is warning member states not to turn surging energy prices into a fiscal crisis. The end of history, indeed. –Patrick

Outbidding

Middle East private-capital firms outbid Asia on compensation in 2025, with senior professionals pulling in up to USD 750k a year as firms leaned on pay to secure scarce talent, according to Heidrick & Struggles’ Asia Pacific & Middle East Private Capital Investment Professional Compensation Survey (pdf).

Firms were competing for a narrow pool of dealmakers with execution and fundraising track records, particularly as Abu Dhabi and Riyadh scale as talent hubs and absorb new funds and strategies.

The open question: What the market for talent looks like as the war in the Gulf saps market energy.

Abu Dhabi and Riyadh were the top talent hubs last year: The top regional financial capitals of the region are increasingly pulling professionals from established hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong, the report said. As the region continued to grow its appeal as a private capital growth market, the UAE and Saudi saw an influx of international talent and sustained their dominance over regional senior talent.

REMEMBER- This pair has already been in fierce competition for talent — and this competition is now maturing. The 25% compensation premium that once defined Saudi’s talent push has recently narrowed to 5-10%, UAE-based recruitment agency Cooper Fitch’s CEO Trefor Murphy previously told EnterpriseAM.

Zooming out: Base salaries and bonuses have risen for two consecutive years, with around two-thirds of surveyed firms reporting increases across both, the report said. That signals a sustained reset in pay levels rather than a one-off bidding war. Managing partners are averaging around USD 750k in total direct compensation, with partners and managing directors close behind at USD 719k, and principals at roughly USD 503k. Bonuses are also doing much of the work and, at the very top, can swing outcomes enough that some partners out-earn managing partners.

What about the day after?

It’s less clear what will be in the bag for our region’s dominance in the talent market once the war is over. While the report penciled in a positive outlook for managing partners for the next 18 months, with nearly 78% of surveyed firms (before the war) expecting base salaries to rise further over this period, it notes it was written before the war hit the region, and that today “market conditions have become markedly more uncertain.”

And there’s good reason to believe that overall positive sentiment might hold: GCC governments will spend big as they work to burnish their positioning as safe destinations for both capital and people.

Those with thick skin will be especially rewarded: After the war, it’s about who stayed in town and who managed to navigate the conflict. Those who can stay “clear-headed” and “curious” despite the tensions around them will be the most sought-after talent, Shadi El Farr, regional managing partner at Heidrick & Struggles, told Arabian Business.

Big-picture thinking will also be rewarded and priced in, specifically operators who can read “geopolitical shifts, capital flows, and market dynamics as a single picture,” El Farr said.

Gold rush incoming

We may soon see a bank-led rush on Egypt’s finance sector, after the central bank lifted the 40% ownership cap on how much equity banks can own in non-banking finance firms, according to a decision reviewed by EnterpriseAM.

The updated list of Egyptian financial companies that are now fair game for banks: Securities firms, mortgage companies, securitization companies, factoring and leasing businesses, ins. companies, bureau de changes, money transfer services, payment companies, consumer finance activities, SME financing businesses, and fintechs offering non-bank financial services.

Why this matters: Raising the ownership cap will allow banks to put more financial weight and industry know-how behind these companies, former Blom Bank Egypt deputy managing director Tarek Metwally tells EnterpriseAM. Being affiliated with an established bank can also help fintechs add credibility and support adoption of digital financial services, he added.

The CBE will, by extension, see its oversight of these companies increase in tandem, which could help limit any potential undermining of market stability, former Industrial Development Bank chairman Maged Fahmy tells us. Because banks are already firmly under the supervision of the central bank, greater bank ownership of fintechs and other financial companies would extend this regulatory umbrella to a wider part of the market, Fahmy added.

What’s next? Expect to see a wave of acquisitions by banks targeting fintechs, money transfer companies, and businesses that specialize in lending to SMEs, Metwally tells us. The new rules are also expected to persuade banks to open up new subsidiaries and investment arms to expand in these sectors.

PIF looks to protect SpaceX turf as Elon hurtles toward an IPO

PIF looks to protect its SpaceX turf with IPO anchor bid: The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is considering a USD 5 bn anchor investment in SpaceX’s IPO, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the SWF’s intentions. The move would partly protect PIF’s stake of just under 1% in the company from dilution as the rocket company moves towards an IPO.

Background: Elon Musk’s SpaceX is reportedly targeting a June IPO after its confidential filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission last week. SpaceX is aiming to raise a record USD 75 bn in its debut — surpassing Aramco’s record-breaking USD 29 bn offering back in 2019 and angling for a valuation of over USD 1.75 tn. Wealthy investors served by the underwriting banks are expected to form a large portion of the allocation, while as much as 30% could go to retail investors.

PIF’s new five-year strategy — to be formally announced in the upcoming weeks — is expected to concentrate capital into a smaller pool of portfolio companies and scale them into global champions across sectors such as logistics, mining, religious tourism, and AI.

The multi-bn USD investment also reinforces PIF’s commitment to its international portfolio despite the ongoing regional war, a message Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan reiterated at the FII event in Miami. The fund’s global dealmaking continues, with PIF’s Savvy Games also nearing the close of a USD 6 bn purchase of mobile game maker Moonton from TikTok maker ByteDance.

MEANWHILE- Gulf sovereign wealth is moving into Hollywood in a massive way, with three major funds poised to back Paramount’s takeover of Warner Bros. PIF, Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding, and the Qatar Investment Authority are committing a combined USD 24 bn to the deal, with PIF writing the biggest check at around USD 10 bn. The massive commitment fills the vacuum left when Netflix reached a dramatic end and walked away from its bid, putting GCC capital firmly at the heart of global media consolidation.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING TODAY-

Egypt is making another run at its privatization program by submitting EGX listing documentation for five state-owned firms, including El Nahda Industries, Egyptian Ferroalloys, El Nasr Glass, El Nasr Mining, and Alexandria Refractories. The filings are part of a broader push to generate USD 3-4 bn in divestment proceeds by year-end.

State gas player Egas has inked a USD 500 mnfinal investment decision with Arcius Energy to develop the Harmattan gas field in the Mediterranean. Arcius is a joint venture between BP and Adnoc’s investment arm, XRG. Arcius is slated to come online in 2028.

Market Snapshot

Tadawul flat • ADX +0.2% • DFM -0.5% • EGX30 +2.4%

Brent USD 111.41 / bbl • Gold USD 4,658.48 / oz • USD / SAR 3.7502 • USD / EGP 54.40

Peak crossings

A CAVEAT- Vessel tracking is being hampered by electronic interference, while some tankers are switching off AIS transponders in high-risk waters — reducing the reliability and timeliness of observed movements reported in the media. “AIS tracking shows ships in locations where they are not and can disrupt compliance checks with false sanctioned flagging,” senior purchaser at Unicore Sean Burgin previously told EnterpriseAM.

Iran’s “non-hostile” club: Countries like China, Russia, India, and Pakistan have been allowed transit under the “aligned with Iran” logic, with negotiated passages with countries like Malaysia and Thailand — alongside ships carrying “ essential goods.” After a day of the exemption, an oil tanker chartered by Malaysia’s oil giant Petronas and loaded with 1 mn barrels of Basrah Heavy crude was seen passing the strait. Other vessels linked to Malta, India, and Oman have also passed through recently.

Iraq also announced it is exempt from crossing restrictions, potentially unlocking up to 3 mn bbl / d of exports — though it remains unclear whether this applies to all cargoes or only Iraqi tankers, and whether shipowners will take the risk to lift them.

Access is also becoming priced: Some tankers have reportedly paid around USD 1 per barrel through Iran’s toll booth play.

Also on Our Radar

Schedule restored… but elsewhere

North American cities are filling in the gap the war left in the Formula One (F1) schedule after the cancellations of the Bahrain and Jeddah's April all-female races. Montreal and Austin are now expected to host the competitions in May and October, which would allow the F1 Academy to keep its race count for the year at 14 races across six rounds as planned.

Pumping it out

Arcius Energy reached a final investment decision to develop Egypt’s Harmattan gas field in the Mediterranean. The USD 500 mn project is expected to go online in 2028 and will produce around 150 mn cf/d of gas and 3.3k barrels of condensates per day, with plans to ramp production to 200 mn cf/d and 4.4k barrels of condensates. Arcius Energy — a JV between BP and Adnoc’s investment arm XRG focused on Egypt’s natural gas assets — first acquired the field from Shell and BP in November

More could be coming Egypt’s way, with Eni pledging USD 2 bn in 2026 and Dubai-based Dragon Oil planning at least USD 3 bn over the next few years for exploration and production.

Eyes on Africa

DP World and AD Ports Group are partnering with Nigeria for its planned new national shipping line. The two Gulf operators will help rebuild the African country’s sovereign shipping capacity, as it works towards reducing reliance on foreign carriers and improving port capacities.

Going remote

Watch this space

WFH policies are taking hold across the region, albeit for different reasons in each case. Yesterday was the first day of Egypt’s new policy requiring employees in the public and private sectors — excluding factories, public services, water stations, gas stations, water treatment stations, hospitals, schools, and universities — to work from home in a bid to conserve energy. Egypt is the first country in the region to enforce mandatory WFH time, but the policy is gaining traction among Asian countries.

In Saudi, the impetus for WFH is security: Building managers at The King Abdullah Financial District, Business Gate, and Al Faisaliah Tower directed tenants to work from home through today. Al Faisaliah houses Apple and JPMorgan Chase’s offices in Saudi, while Business Gate is home to Microsoft and Dell, all on Tehran’s list of retaliation against US tech corporations.

Turkey and Egypt hiked electricity rates over the weekend, as both net energy importers roll out a spate of different policies in a bid to contain the fiscal and monetary fallout of the war-induced global energy crisis.

Egypt to focus on commercial and household bills: Commercial energy consumers will see rates for the first 100 kWh used rise 91%, while consumption above this will also see further increases at smaller incremental increases per bracket. Energy used for irrigation will increase 32.5%, and households in the high-consumption bracket will face a 16% hike, according to a government document seen by EnterpriseAM.

Turkey chose a holistic approach, raising the rates for households (25%), industries (6-19%), the services sector (18%), and irrigation consumers (25%).

Sign of the times

Business conditions across the region’s non-oil private sectors took a hit in March, as escalating geopolitical tensions and softer demand began to weigh more visibly on activity. Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector contracted for the first time in over five years, with the headline PMI falling to 48.8 from 56.1 in February — the survey's second-steepest drop on record. Meanwhile, Egypt’s non-oil sector continued to stagnate, with the PMI hitting 48.0 — its weakest since April 2024 — amid falling output and orders.

No surprise here: The contractions come on the heels of unprecedented supply chains and energy crises driven by the shutdown of the Hormuz Strait. Non-oil private sectors all over the world — from Australia and the European Union to our neighbor Turkey — took a hit as a result.

CALENDAR

April 2026

9 Apr — Martyrs’ Day (public holiday, markets closed). Tunisia

9 Apr — Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

13 Apr — IMF / World Bank spring meetings begin (through 18 Apr). Washington (virtual)

14 Apr — QNB 1Q 2026 earnings guidance. Qatar

15 Apr — 2Q IPO listing window opens. Region-wide

25 Apr — Sinai Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

28-29 Apr — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

28 Apr-1 May — Syria HiTech International ICT Exhibition. Damascus, Syria

May 2026

12 May — Qatar Economic Forum (through 14 May). Qatar

21 May — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

25 May — Independence Day (public holiday, markets closed). Jordan

27-30 May — Eid Al Adha (public holiday, markets closed). Region-wide

28 May — Saudi Aramco ex-dividend date. Saudi Arabia

June 2026

7 June — OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Vienna/Virtual

9 June — King Abdullah II Accession Day (public holiday, markets closed). Jordan

10–14 June — Syria Buildex International Construction Exhibition. Syria

16-17 June — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

July 2026

5 July — Independence Day (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

9 July — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

14 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

23 July — Revolution Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

25 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Tunisia

28-29 July — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

30 July — Throne Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

August 2026

13 Aug — Women’s National Day. Tunisia

20 Aug — Revolution of the King and the People Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

20 Aug — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

21 Aug — Youth Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

25 Aug — Prophet’s Birthday (public holiday, markets closed) — TBD. Region-wide

31 Aug-3 Sep — LEAP technology conference. Saudi Arabia

September 2026

7-9 Sep — AIM Congress. UAE

15-16 Sep — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

15 Sep — IMF’s eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement. Egypt

16-17 Sep — Middle East Banking Innovation Summit. UAE

23 Sep — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Saudi Arabia

24 Sep — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

30 Sep-3 Oct — Cityscape Egypt 2026. Egypt

October 2026

3 Oct — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

6 Oct — Armed Forces Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

15 Oct — GCC Made in the Gulf Forum + Exhibition. TBD

25 Oct — Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Libya

25-27 Oct — World Investment Forum 2026. Qatar

26-29 Oct — Future Investment Initiative. Saudi Arabia

27-28 Oct — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

29 Oct — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

November 2026

1 Nov — Revolution Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

2 Nov — Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition + Conference (ADIPEC) opens (through 5 Nov). UAE

6 Nov — Green March Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

16 Nov — Cityscape Global begins (through 19 Nov). Saudi Arabia

December 2026

17 Dec — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

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