MENA+ earnings in 1Q 2026 paint a very mixed (and still incomplete) picture of the war’s impact

Earnings season across MENA+ is in its last stretch, rounding out a very mixed picture for company performance in the first quarter of the year. The impact of the war showed up in different ways across industries — and companies within the same industry. The first quarter carries the hit from just one month of the war — and that month would have been a little slower anyway because of the seasonal impact of Ramadan. With Hormuz still shut, tourists staying home, and dealflow in the dumpster, 2Q is likely shaping up to be even more challenging for corporates across the region.

UP FIRST- Adnoc Gas’ net income fell 15% y-o-y to USD 1.1 bn, according to its financials(pdf), and revenue declined 18% to USD 5 bn. The company’s exports of LNG, LPG, and naptha were disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in 1Q 2026, falling 20% y-o-y and weighing on earnings through March.

Damage to the Habshan gas processing facility from Iranian attacks in April is expected to keep parts of the complex offline into 2027, with the site currently operating at around 60% capacity and Adnoc Gas targeting an 80% restoration rate by year-end, according to the gas firm’s management discussion and analysis report (pdf). The site was hit on 3 and 8 April during Iran's strikes on UAE energy infrastructure.

The fallout is expected to spill into 2Q: Adnoc Gas warned the strait’s closure could shave USD 400-600 mn off net income in the second quarter assuming maritime operations normalize before quarter-end. Even so, management still expects FY 2026 net income of USD 3.5-4 bn, helped by stronger LNG and LPG pricing in 2H if shipping routes reopen.

But the gas giant is still going to ramp up its capex spending: Adnoc Gas raised its FY 2026 capex guidance by around USD 500 mn to USD 4.5-5 bn as regional disruption and supply chain pressures lift project costs. The board also approved a quarterly dividend of USD 941 mn, showing no signs of backing away from growing annual dividends by 5% through 2030.

Adnoc Drilling had a strikingly different experience in the first quarter, posting USD 1.2 bn in revenue (up 5% y-o-y) and net income up 2% to USD 347 mn, it said (pdf). Net income was supported by higher oilfield services and offshore drilling activity, plus lower financing costs after last year’s refinancing exercise.

Adnoc Drilling’s investment budget is even more ambitious than Adnoc Gas: Drilling is plans to commit some USD 1 bn to new opportunities at home and abroad this year, our friend Youssef Salem, the company’s CFO, told CNBC (watch, runtime: 6:54). Adnoc Drilling is targeting a longer-term shift beyond its traditional drilling model, with management recently outlining plans for a 50-50 revenue split between drilling and manufacturing and oilfield services over the next five years.

Adnoc Drilling reaffirmed its c.USD 5 bn FY 2026 revenue guidance despite the regional backdrop, saying there has been “no material impact” on core drilling operations. The board recommended a 1Q 2026 dividend of USD 262.5 mn, payable in June.

Earnings also look mixed in other industries

Emaar Properties kicked off 2026 with another strong quarter, with property sales rising 16% y-o-y, supported by Dubai’s real estate momentum. The developer reported net income after tax of AED 6.4 bn in 1Q, up 38% y-o-y, according to its financials (pdf) and earnings release (pdf). Revenue rose 23% to AED 12.4 bn.

Dubai toll gate operator Salik saw 1Q 2026 traffic volumes soften amid weaker March mobility trends tied to regional disruption. Net income was broadly stable, dipping just 0.4% y-o-y to AED 369.3 mn, according to its earnings release (pdf), while revenue slipped 3.0% y-o-y to AED 728.9 mn as total trips fell 6.4% to 197.2 mn. Softer traffic weighed on toll usage fees, though the impact was partly offset by Dubai’s variable pricing system and growth in tag activation fees and ancillary revenues.

Grocery players broadly had a disappointing quarter, with Spinneys eking out bottom-line growth while Lulu Retail and Talabat saw earnings squeezed by softer non-food demand and elevated investment spend

Lulu Retail’s net income fell 32.8% y-o-y to USD 47 mn as a March slowdown in lifestyle and electrical sales dragged revenue 2.9% lower to USD 2 bn, according to its earnings release. Higher-margin private labels rose nearly 1 percentage point to 30.2% of sales as shoppers shifted to value, and e-commerce sales jumped 61% y-o-y to USD 150 mn on a refreshed app and website.

Talabat’s net income fell 18% y-o-y to USD 87 mn as it spent some USD 25 mn to scale Talabat Mart and bolster Talabat Pro, according to its earnings release (pdf). Gross merchandising value rose 19% y-o-y to USD 2.7 bn (18% on a constant currency basis) and revenue climbed 23% to USD 1 bn, helped by strong Ramadan and Eid trading and a shift toward “eat-at-home” consumption. Non-GCC markets — led by Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq — grew GMV 52% to USD 563 mn, while GCC contributed USD 2.1 bn (+12%).

Spinneys was the lone gainer, with net income up 1.9% y-o-y to AED 87 mn and revenue rising 11.9% to AED 1.01 bn, it said in an earnings release (pdf). Adjusted EBITDA edged 1.2% higher to AED 184 mn. Growth was driven by like-for-like sales, new store openings, higher online penetration, and stronger fresh and private label sales — transaction volumes rose 8.5% y-o-y to 10.8 mn and average basket size grew 3.4% to AED 92.9.

Capacity growth supported Flynas’ top line, but rising costs weighed on profitability. The low-cost carrier saw its net income fall 20.3% y-o-y to SAR 117.9 mn in 1Q 2026, according to its financials. The bottom-line dip was driven by higher fuel costs, alongside increased handling and navigation charges, elevated maintenance expenses from greater operating activity, and additional wet-lease costs. Revenue rose 9.7% y-o-y to SAR 2 bn during the same period, buoyed by capacity expansion and continued passenger demand across the airline’s network.