Good morning, friends. The UAE is in the driver's seat today, the passenger seat, and the cargo hold.

Adnoc is selling more LNG to Thailand: A second agreement with Thailand's Gulf Group covers around 2 mn tons in total from 2027, building on the first agreement signed in 2025. The value and exact duration weren't disclosed.

AD Ports just made its biggest purchase yet. It closed the USD 835 mn acquisition of Brazilian agri-bulk terminal operator CLI, its largest agreement to date and its first in South America, with plans to ship Brazilian farm exports straight to Abu Dhabi.

Meanwhile, UAE-bound cargo now has to clear before it's loaded: Under the new MPCI program, which took effect last week, shipping lines and freight forwarders must file cargo data before a container is loaded at the origin port, replacing the old rule of filing at least 48 hours before arrival.

Running short

The world’s oil stockpiles have become “scarily thin,” and markets remain exposed until Hormuz fully reopens, Bloomberg reports, citing Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser as saying at the Energy Intelligence Forum. Commercial inventories have fallen to fewer than 6 bn barrels from almost 10 bn when the war began, and technical restrictions mean less than 10% of the world's stocks are practically available, he said.

Emergency releases won't close the gap, Nasser said. The G7 agreed to release up to 100 mn barrels of diesel and crude over four months to ease fuel prices. Refilling stocks would add at least 2 mn bbl / d of demand and could take up to two years, he added, with more needed if governments decide to hold larger reserves.

Gulf exports are recovering, but prices haven't eased: Seven major Gulf producers were set to ship 12.8 mn bbl / d in September, still some 6 mn bbl / d below February levels. Brent has traded around USD 100 per barrel over the past month, Nasser said, with Iranian attacks on ships in the strait and proxy attacks on Aramco infrastructure keeping supply risks in focus. Refined fuel prices have risen even more sharply than crude, he said.

Running dark

Qatar’s LNG traffic through Hormuz is picking up again: Four carriers loaded at Ras Laffan resurfaced outside the strait last weekend after largely untracked crossings, Reuters reports, citing Kpler and LSEG ship-tracking data. Three of the latest movements involve QatarEnergy-linked vessels. Al Sadd delivered its cargo to India's Dahej terminal on 3 October, and Al Gattara is signaling Zhejiang, China. More ships are making dark transits, crossing with their AIS transponders switched off, so the full extent of the recovery is hard to track.

The crossings are becoming more regular: They build on a pickup that began in mid-September, when at least five loaded Qatar-linked LNG vessels were spotted outside the Gulf after none were visible crossing in August. However, QatarEnergy is still holding off on promising deliveries. It has extended force majeure on deliveries to buyers in Pakistan, India, and Italy into November and December.

BACKGROUND- Almost all of Qatar’s LNG has to leave through the strait, since the country has no export terminal outside the Gulf that can provide a meaningful bypass. Its export capacity is also down. Strikes earlier this year knocked out two of Ras Laffan's LNG trains, taking around 12.8 mtpa offline, and repairs are expected to take three to five years.

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Market watch

Oil prices rose this morning as Middle East tensions offset easing supply concerns, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased USD 0.27 to USD 100.59 / bbl by 03.30 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 0.30 to USD 89.73 / bbl.

The Baltic Index inches lower: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 2.5% to 3,070 points on Monday. The capesize index eased 4.2% to 4,833 points, while the panamax fell 0.3% to 2,364 points. The smaller supramax rose 0.1% to 1,790 points.

Opec+ left the taps where they are: Opec+ held November output targets steady, pausing the run of monthly increases they had been making through 2026, according to a statement. The decision matched market expectations.

The quota matters less than usual. Gulf members are already pumping well under target as the war on Iran disrupts exports, which have run at 60-80% of normal in recent months. The seven countries produced 25 mn bbl / d in August, Opec data shows, still about 5 mn bbl / d below February, with Brent holding above USD 100.

Nothing big moves before 2027. The capacity review that sets members’ 2027 quotas is on hold until the war clears the uncertainty around future output, sources told Reuters. The next meeting is scheduled for 1 November.

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