Good morning, friends, and happy Monday. Is Hormuz open? Is Hormuz closed? The question that never seems to leave our minds — or our issues — got another answer this weekend: The US military launched fresh strikes on Iran to keep the strait open, rejecting Tehran’s claims that it had shut the waterway down. Iranian state media, meanwhile, reported explosions in cities along the strait — though the Joint Maritime Information Center (pdf) says Oman’s southern route has stayed open, even as it keeps its “severe” threat assessment in place.

… None of which is stopping Adnoc L&S from adding more LNG capacity through the Gulf. The shipping arm has ordered four LNG carriers worth USD 900 mn from China’s Jiangnan Shipyard, bringing its newbuild program to 18 vessels.

Morocco, for its part, is hedging a different way: Construction has begun on an MAD 275 mn logistics zone in Moulay Yacoub province, near Fez — another inland node in a network increasingly built around reducing exposure to exactly the kind of maritime disruption playing out in the Gulf right now.

Welcome back, Maersk

Danish shipping firm Maersk is bringing back Suez Canal transits on its India-Middle East-US East Coast service (MECL), according to a statement. Maersk’s return is an early signal of recovery for our Suez Canal revenues, which rose 23% y-o-y to USD 4.8 bn in FY 2025/26 after dropping sharply during the prolonged Red Sea crisis and subsequent Hormuz disruptions.

The need for speed: The MECL will now sail via the Red Sea instead of around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, which it had used since Houthi attacks began in late 2023. Maersk described the Suez and Red Sea route as the fastest and most efficient way to connect India, the Middle East, and the US East Coast, saying the shift will improve westbound transit times by roughly seven days and eastbound by up to 14 days. The carrier is also adding a new eastbound port of call in Jeddah starting in August.

REFRESHER- Last week, Maersk and Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd announced their jointly run AE15 service — connecting Asia, the Mediterranean, and Europe — would make the same switch. Maersk restored the same route in January following successful trial voyages, only to revert to the Cape of Good Hope route in March when the US-Iran conflict escalated and the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck intensified.

Ras Tanura’s cold start

Saudi Aramco is trying to revive loadings from its reopened Ras Tanura terminal, but some buyers are reluctant to send ships into the Arabian Gulf after renewed vessel attacks on Hormuz, Bloomberg reported last week. The terminal, which handled around 90% of Saudi crude exports before the war, restarted after a months-long closure, with Aramco asking customers to submit August loading requests.

Safety risk, tanker scarcity, and freight costs are all working against Aramco’s timing. Three vessels were attacked on Tuesday, while Brent briefly jumped as much as 8.7% to above USD 80/bbl as markets priced in the renewed threat around Hormuz.

Yanbu is still the pressure valve: Aramco is continuing to offer buyers the option to lift cargoes from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, which customers have been relying on since the early days of the war. That keeps the cargo moving outside the Gulf, with the Kingdom leaning on the East-West pipeline to redirect crude toward Yanbu when Hormuz access is disrupted.

Gulf skies hold

Middle East travel demand has clawed back to as much as 90% pre-war levels — enough to keep Airbus confident Gulf carriers can shake off the Iran war disruption and keep adding capacity, Bloomberg reported last week. The planemaker expects the region's major carriers, including Emirates and Qatar Airways, to keep expanding their fleets.

Airbus’ wider outlook is still positive, just flatter. It expects global traffic to grow 2% this year and 3.9% annually over the next two decades, with China, India, emerging Asian markets, and the Gulf driving demand. It sees 42k aircraft deliveries over the period — slightly below last year's forecast — with single-aisle jets accounting for around 80% of the total at 34k units.

Our take: Gulf carriers anchor a large share of Airbus and Boeing's widebody order books. Their business model depends on pulling global traffic through Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and other regional hubs — Emirates alone operates the world's largest fleet of Airbus A380s and Boeing 777s, which is why Airbus' read on Gulf demand matters well beyond the region.

400 MW and counting

Incom Group plans to build a USD 300 mn data center in Borg El Arab, Alexandria, over three years and multiple phases. The Electricity Ministry would supply 100 MW in the first phase, rising to 400 MW as later phases come online.

REFRESHER- Incom — formally the International Company for Petroleum and Industrial Services — signed a 2024 MoU with the CIT Ministry, Record Digital Asset Ventures, and SIC Investment to study a green data center running on 200 MW of solar and wind across two phases.

Why it matters: Egypt’s data-center pipeline is increasingly a grid-allocation story. Hassan Allam’s digital infrastructure arm committed USD 400 mn last month for a first phase — the Borg El Arab project would add another power-heavy facility. Egypt has the geography and subsea-cable position to sell itself as a data hub, but the real test lies in infrastructure gaps, operating costs, and reliable power.

Market watch

Oil prices rose 4% as US-Iran tensions threatened Hormuz shipments, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures jumped USD 3.10 to USD 79.11 / bbl by 03.25 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased USD 2.29 to USD 74.36 / bbl.

The Baltic Index keeps climbing: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 1.5% to 2,944 points on Friday. The capesize index climbed 1.9% to 4,655 points, while the panamax was slightly changed at 2,253 points. The smaller supramax edged 0.4% at 1,706 points.

The Drewry World Container Index rose 2% to USD 4,639 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The lift came as transpacific and Asia-Europe rates moved higher, led by gains on Shanghai-Rotterdam (5%), Shanghai-Genoa (2%), and Shanghai-Los Angeles (2%). East-West freight markets remain volatile as renewed US-Iran tensions keep security risks high around Hormuz, while carriers look to hold rates through surcharges even as peak-season demand is expected to cool from late July.

Data point

9.4 mn tons — that’s how much cargo moved by road across Jordan in 1Q 2026, up 23.6% y-o-y. Exports led the growth, rising 35.5% to 4.5 mn tons, while imports increased 14.2% to 4.9 mn tons. Truck movements through the Kingdom’s land crossings climbed 11.9% to 318.5k vehicles.

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