Capital hasn’t left Saudi football, but valuations aren’t the same

Saudi football clubs are still drawing buyers as the Kingdom privatizes the sector — now at lower valuations as investors price in regional risk and PIF’s retreat. “Capital has not left Saudi football. It has simply started asking for a discount,” Hamad Bin Khalifa University sports management professor Christos Anagnostopoulos tells EnterpriseAM.

“Investor appetite for Saudi football clubs remains promising,” University Campus of Football Business sport finance expert professor Rob Wilson tells EnterpriseAM, pointing to government backing and football infrastructure as a “compelling long-term investment narrative” for strategic investors, family offices, and institutions.

What has shifted is pricing discipline: Geopolitics is likely to add more caution and sharpen scrutiny of valuations, due diligence, and investment structures, according to Wilson. “Investors will distinguish between clubs offering credible commercial growth and those whose financial performance remains heavily dependent on external funding,” he added.

Who’s buying? More than 40 local and international investors had formally expressed interest as of June, Anagnostopoulos says, citing a senior Sports Ministry official. Kingdom Holding Company (KHC) had already agreed in April to buy 70% of Al Hilal in a transaction he says valued the club at around SAR 1.4 bn (c. USD 373 mn). A RedBird Capital-led consortium has held talks with PIF over Al Nassr, with reported terms implying a similar valuation. PIF is also lining up sponsorships with portfolio companies to help clear Al Nassr’s SAR 800 mn debt before a sale.

IN CONTEXT- Saudi Arabia is steering its clubs toward financial sustainability as PIF steps back. In its new five-year strategy, the fund dropped sport from its priority sectors and has said openly it wants out of its clubs.

Pricing the badge

“Brand, fan base, and debt matter most,” along with how much revenue a club generates without the state, Anagnostopoulos says. “Investors are not buying today’s profits. They are buying the badge and the road to 2034.” Beyond that, Wilson says, buyers are weighing fan engagement, sponsorship, broadcasting exposure, stadium infrastructure, wage commitments, liabilities, and governance. Revenue multiples and discounted cashflow give useful benchmarks, but Saudi clubs’ commercial models are still young, so investors are likely to pay for brand and growth while discounting for uncertainty, governance risk, or heavy operating losses.

The escalation has made the risk concrete. Abha was offered to investors in June; in October, its airport was hit in a Houthi attack. “It is a line in the due-diligence report,” Anagnostopoulos says. A club sale typically takes eight to 10 months, so buyers are likely to price the risk in through lower valuations and staged payments. Saudi buyers with long horizons are likely to hold their nerve; foreign financial investors are more likely to wait.

The disruption is already visible: The league postponed three fixtures this month, including Al Ahli against Al Nassr, and clubs were spending far less on transfers even before the escalation, Anagnostopoulos says.

Wilson sees it as short-term volatility against a long-term strategy. Investors will weigh ins. costs, travel, event security, and operational continuity, and international buyers could demand higher risk-adjusted returns or extra contractual protections. Privatization, he argues, is a structural part of the diversification push that temporary instability need not undermine; the real danger is prolonged instability that erodes commercial revenues, investor confidence, or the ability to host international events.

International appeal will come at a higher price. Sponsors weigh reputational risk and event continuity alongside reach, Wilson says, while players weigh security and family alongside pay. “Players will still come, but security now has a price, and that price is paid in wages,” Anagnostopoulos tells us. Sponsors, he adds, are likely to wait for calm before signing.

The end of the chequebook era?

Private ownership brings harder budget discipline. Clearer accountability and a stronger focus on return, Wilson says, could push spending toward youth academies, sports science, digital engagement, merchandising, and stadium commercial activity. Outcomes will vary by owner — some chasing quick success to build the brand, others favoring gradual growth and tighter cost control. “The key will be achieving an appropriate balance between sporting competitiveness and financial sustainability,” he says.

The wage bill is already falling. Estimates put the league’s fixed wage bill down around 13% this season, Anagnostopoulos says. “Owners who answer to a balance sheet buy players for value, not for headlines, which means younger players they can develop and sell. The open question is whether the league keeps its competitive balance once a few well-funded owners pull away from the rest.”

But the capital should spill into the wider economy. Privatization could draw private and institutional money into infrastructure, broadcasting, sponsorship, technology, hospitality, and tourism, Wilson says, and create demand for sports finance, legal advisory, asset management, and marketing. Long-term success will be judged on financial sustainability, governance, commercial revenues, and home-grown talent.

Governance is the test: Private money will stay only if the rules are credible. That means real tests of who is fit to own and run a club, published audited accounts, and spending controls that are actually enforced, Anagnostopoulos says. “Get the governance right and the investment will follow.”