A major blow

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Filling the commercial infrastructure around EVs

Good morning, all. It’s a heavy start to the week. A missile hit King Khalid International on Saturday, killing 12 and injuring more than 300, the third strike on the airport in a week. We lead with the aftershocks on the Kingdom’s airspace and what that means for its marquee business season, with the World Petroleum Council Energy Congress opening today and FII following later this month. Who’s still coming, who’s pulling back, and what organizers need to see before they commit are all in War Watch.

Away from the airport, Aramco is looking for ways around Hormuz. The company is exploring overland export routes to Europe and reworking how it sells crude to Asia. We look at how far those plans have progressed and what they could mean for buyers. Plus, Aramco is putting USD 200 mn behind a pilot to extract battery-grade lithium from oilfield brine.

On a more positive note, Saudi cranes are still up. Saudi construction kept expanding last quarter, and the Kingdom holds nearly half the Gulf’s project pipeline, even as new awards slipped and input costs hit a yearly high.

Happening today

Riyadh Energy Week kicks off today and runs through Thursday, 15 October, bringing together ministers, energy executives, and industry groups to discuss energy security and sustainability. The week opens with the IEF17 Ministerial Meeting, hosted by Saudi Arabia alongside Italy and Nigeria, while the Clean Energy Ministerial and Mission Innovation meetings are taking place today through Tuesday.

The WPC Energy Congress anchors the week and opens tomorrow at the Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center, with discussions spanning oil and gas markets, supply security, and how lower-carbon systems fit into the sector.

EVs move beyond the factory floor

Saudi Arabia’s EV push is starting to fill in the commercial infrastructure around the cars. Ceer has opened reservations for its limited-run Exobot First Edition sedan and SUV at SAR 399k apiece, launching sales through its first mobile store at Bujairi Terrace in Diriyah, according to a company statement. The carmaker says regular production will begin in 1Q 2027.

The sales network is already taking shape. Ceer plans for mobile stores at Boulevard City in Riyadh, Red Sea Mall in Jeddah, and Nakheel Mall in Dammam before year-end, alongside permanent centers in Riyadh, Jeddah, and Khobar covering sales, test drives, deliveries, servicing, and spare parts.

ICYMI- Ceer unveiled the Exobot sedan and SUV last month as the first two of seven models planned for the next five years. The carmaker plans to expand to other GCC countries in 2028, followed by a gradual rollout across the broader MENA region that is expected to run through 2034, Ceer CEO James DeLuca said.

Meanwhile, Lucid has opened a dedicated body-and-paint repair center in Riyadh, adding collision repair and diagnostics capacity to its existing studios, service centers, and mobile service operation in the Kingdom, Zawya reports.

Commercial fleets are getting an EV push too. Danish transport and logistics company DSV will begin electrifying part of its Riyadh fleet under a tie-up with Saudi EV supplier Hala Auto and Saudi EV charging infrastructure company EVIQ. Hala will supply electric cargo vans and trucks, while EVIQ will build dedicated depot charging infrastructure for DSV and give the fleet access to its wider charging network. The partners did not disclose the number of vehicles or chargers involved.

REMEMBER- We wrote last month that the harder part of Saudi Arabia’s EV wager was building the ecosystem around the factories — including demand, charging, and aftersales. These three developments put activity into each of those buckets.

Almarai’s next big bite

Almarai plans to invest more than USD 4 bn through 2031 under its newly approved growth strategy, with the spending going toward additional capacity and capabilities across the food giant’s operations, according to a company statement. The plan will focus on growing its core categories, selectively entering new ones, expanding channels including foodservice and e-commerce, and building its presence in priority markets.

The strategy gives Almarai another runway for diversification: The company has been expanding beyond its established dairy, poultry, bakery, and juice businesses into newer categories, including bottled water following its SAR 1 bn acquisition of Pure Beverages last year.

REMEMBER- Almarai laid out a separate SAR 18 bn investment program through 2028 back in 2024, with poultry accounting for the largest chunk of planned spending.

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to fill up Asia’s reserves

Saudi Arabia and the UAE will support the Japanese initiative to increase oil supplies in Southeast Asia, Bloomberg reports. Discussions on the matter took place during a meeting of the Asia Zero Emission Community and covered cooperation on oil purchases and strategic stockpiles. The proposed framework could let buyers negotiate bilateral supply directly with Gulf producers.

“Both countries from the Middle East expressed their willingness to cooperate on strengthening oil stockpiling capacity in Asia,” Japan’s State Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Takagi Kei said. Tokyo sourced about 90% of its oil from the region, most of it through Hormuz, before the conflict between the US and Iran broke out. More than half of Southeast Asia’s oil imports traditionally come from Gulf producers.

REMEMBER- The two GCC countries were expected to back the initiative, as they both asked Tokyo to bolster their existing Japan-based crude inventories roughly tenfold from around 8 mn barrels each. Aramco also holds 5.3 mn barrels in South Korea, with Seoul holding emergency purchase rights.

PSAs

Jeep Grand Cherokee owners should check whether their vehicle needs a software update. The Commerce Ministry has recalled nearly 3k vehicles from the 2023 and 2024 model years over a software defect that could delay side-airbag deployment in a crash, according to state news agency SPA. Owners can check whether their vehicle is affected by entering its VIN on Recalls.sa and contact Petromin Stellantis for a software update at no cost.

Data point

16.6 mn tonnes — that’s how much cargo Saudi ports handled in September, down 25% y-o-y from 22.1 mn tonnes, the Saudi Ports Authority said on X. Liquid bulk accounted for 6.17 mn tonnes, followed by dry bulk at 3.53 mn tonnes and general cargo at 720.4k tonnes. Container handling fell 4.46% to 625.3k TEUs, while livestock volumes rose 68.8% to 574.5k heads. Vessel traffic slid 23.9% y-o-y to 1,039 ships.


The gas crunch gave Egypt every reason to speed up its energy transition, and the question now is who builds it and who pays for it.

Power Trip, our four-part signature series, turns this week to the transition and the private developers now building much of Egypt’s new power.

Issue II looks at how the deals behind these projects work, who is lending to them, and why the country is building a nuclear plant at El Dabaa alongside its solar and wind farms. We also look at whether the regional crisis has finally pushed industry toward renewables, and at the factories Egypt is counting on to build its own panels, batteries, and turbines.

Tap here to subscribe to the Egypt edition and get Power Trip delivered straight to your inbox.

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The big story abroad

Chipmaking giant Nvidia is weighing a takeover of, or a bigger stake in, US AI startup Reflection AI, which builds open-weight models. Discussions are in their early stages and could result in an acqui-hire, among other options, wherein Nvidia would license technology and hire staff without fully acquiring the company, bypassing potential regulatory delays. Nvidia has already invested USD 800 mn in Reflection AI.

Russia has agreed to release 500k tons of diesel into international markets, without specifying a timeline, partially lifting its ban on diesel exports following an agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. Effective Saturday, oil companies in Russia will negotiate export contracts with foreign buyers in coordination with the government.

Indian security forces locked down parts of Delhi yesterday to block a planned rally demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. Thousands of security personnel were deployed across the capital, and more than 2k protesters were detained, including the founder of the Cockroach youth movement that organized the demonstration. Protesters accuse Kumar of overseeing voter list revisions that critics contend unfairly favor Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.


The Gulf’s sovereign funds and largest companies are committing billions to AI infrastructure at home and to AI companies in the US and beyond. EnterpriseAM AI + Innovation reports on where that capital goes, who controls it and what it is actually buying.

Every Tuesday and Thursday, we also cover the startups and established firms across MENA putting AI to work, and how it is changing jobs, education and the way business runs.

It’s sharp, analytical and skeptical journalism that ignores hype and is laser-focused on informing our readers, not pleasing our sources.

Sign up here to be among the first to get it straight to your inbox.

2

WAR WATCH

Saudi Arabia keeps its flagship events on as airport attacks test the nerves of foreign carriers and executives

Riyadh’s main airport was attacked again yesterday, which comes as the Kingdom prepares to host major international business events this month. A missile hit the complex housing King Khalid International’s domestic terminals 3 and 4 and wounded several people, prompting President Donald Trump to weigh joining the Saudi campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis, a regional official told AP News.

The attack killed 12 people, injured 309, and caused material damage that is still being assessed, the Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation said in a statement. The injured are receiving treatment at several hospitals, with some in critical condition. Those killed include four Saudi citizens and eight foreign residents: two Bangladeshi nationals and one person each from Egypt, the US, Jordan, Syria, Palestine, and Sudan.

The strike forced an evacuation and shut the airport. The General Authority for Civil Aviation suspended operations at the airport. An official notice to airmen put the suspension through midnight. The Houthis had not yet claimed the strike as of filing.

Trump said Washington could step in. “We may. We’re going to look at it,” he told reporters, adding that the US had “just found out about the recent attack. So we’ll make a decision. We move very quickly.”

Saturday caps a brutal week. Houthi missile and drone attacks killed six people across three days. Abha International and King Khalid were hit on 6 and 7 October, killing two residents at Abha (28 injured) and one at King Khalid (eight injured); two further strikes on King Khalid on 8 October, aimed at airport facilities and a Saudia aircraft, killed three Saudi citizens, among them Saudia Captain Hamoud Al-Kalthami. Each time, operations resumed within hours. The recovery time for the latest strike remains to be seen.

The Saudi-backed coalition is pushing back: It said it destroyed 82 Houthi military targets across Saada, Hodeidah, Al-Jawf, and Marib — 11 missile depots, command-and-control centers, and militia headquarters among them — and later reported striking 136 more, while intercepting missiles aimed at Riyadh and Khamis Mushait, and taking out three launch pads. The Houthis put the coalition’s Thursday strikes at 77, bringing their running tally of coalition attacks past 1.9k.

Closer to the chokepoint, the coalition said yesterday their forces were advancing around the Bab Al Mandab Strait after launching an operation to retake lost territory, but had not secured the waterway. The Houthis earlier claimed they repelled a Saudi-backed advance from Lahij toward the strait, destroyed more than 22 armored vehicles, and inflicted dozens of casualties, and said they downed a Turkish-made Bayraktar Akinci drone over Taiz. Earlier Saturday, the group accused Saudi Arabia of striking Sanaa International Airport in the rebel-held Yemeni capital.

REMEMBER- The Houthis attacked Yemen’s Aden International Airport last week with two ballistic missiles and several drones, hitting the runway and passenger terminal. They also struck Saudi airports and sites including King Khalid, Jazan’s King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz International, Najran International, and Abha, plus Aramco’s Rabigh refinery, the Khamis Mushait airbase, and Asir’s Aqeefah camp.

Carriers are fleeing Riyadh

The Houthis say they are after Saudi airspace, and they are not done. Their military spokesman Yahya Saree claimed responsibility for the Thursday strikes on King Khalid and Najran airports and the Khamis Mushait airbase, and warned airlines the group will keep targeting Saudi airspace.

Flights took a heavy hit even before Saturday. Analytics firm Cirium counted around 300 cancellations at Riyadh on Thursday, with scores more at Jeddah and Dammam; Flightradar24 logged another 131 at Riyadh on Friday. Saudi carriers ran as scheduled, but Qatar Airways, Turkish Airlines, and flydubai cancelled flights, and Lufthansa, EgyptAir and its subsidiary Air Cairo, Philippine Airlines, Singapore Airlines, and three Indian carriers including Air India suspended Riyadh service. British Airways, Air France, and others have not flown to Saudi Arabia since February. Saturday’s suspension will deepen the disruption.

Regulators are warning airlines away: The EU’s EASA widened its Saudi airspace advisory to add an area in the northwest, flagging the risk of civil aircraft being misidentified when air defenses activate, alongside missile and drone overflights, interception activity, and falling debris. OPSGROUP, a network of nearly 10k aviation professionals, sent members a “do not fly” warning citing the missile attacks and the risk of “misjudgment” in defensive responses.

Bad timing

The escalation lands on top of Saudi Arabia’s marquee business calendar. The World Petroleum Council Energy Congress runs today through Thursday and the Future Investment Initiative (FII) follows on 26-29 October at the King Abdulaziz International Conference Center. The airport serving both has been attacked three times in the span of a week.

Some are already pulling back: The UK has warned against all but essential travel to Riyadh and other parts of the Kingdom, and consultancies are curbing trips, the Financial Times reports. The halted flights have forced improvisation: one consultant drove almost 12 hours from Riyadh to Dubai on Thursday evening, another firm cancelled travel as of Friday, and a third cleared only its partners to go next week. Italy’s energy minister will now address the congress by video instead of in person.

Others are going anyway: Some senior Middle East bankers still plan to attend, with smaller delegations, and several foreign energy executives say they will be there, on the logic that “the Saudis remember who their friends were in bad times.” Phil Miles, associate managing director at risk advisory Kroll, told the FT that executives are loath to pull out of an event as big as FII, so companies are “deferring decision-making” until the last possible moment. Another senior banker expects fewer foreigners at FII saying it’s “great for us! Less competition for face time.”

FII is still a go, for now. Organizers said Friday the summit will proceed with “comprehensive security measures,” and officials are treating the energy congress as a bellwether for it, a person familiar with their thinking told the FT. The final call, this person said, rests on state security’s confidence that the airports, the venue, and the hotels are protected from cruise missiles. The latest King Khalid strike will factor into that assessment.

Meanwhile, our allies are hedging

Turkey is staying out of offensive operations. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told a press conference Thursday that Ankara “will not send troops to another country and carry out an attack there,” drawing a line between defending an ally and going on the offensive, including against the Houthis.

Damascus is weighing defensive support or troops alongside Saudi-backed Yemeni forces, Reuters reports, citing a US official and a Syrian military official briefed on the matter; Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa had raised the topic with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during their meeting last week.

REMEMBER- Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan — members of the Strategic Political and Defense Committee set up under the Makkah Agreement for Joint Defense — just agreed last week to supply forces and capabilities for rapid deployment in the Kingdom. The committee has also named retired Pakistani Lieutenant General Nauman Mahmood as its first secretary-general, for a three-year term.

3

ENERGY

Aramco lines up new European routes and reworks its Asian contracts to cut reliance on Hormuz

Saudi Arabia is redrawing its oil-export map. The war exposed how much of the Kingdom’s crude leans on the Strait of Hormuz, and Aramco and the government are now moving on two fronts to route around the chokepoint: opening new corridors to carry oil overland to Europe, and rewriting how Aramco ships and prices the crude it sells to Asia.

The Kingdom is scouting new ways to get oil to Europe, eyeing export corridors through Syria and Turkey, and another via Iraq and Syria, the Economy and Planning Ministry’s chief economist Yaser Faqih said at the Milken Institute’s Asia Summit, Asharq Business reports.

It’s doing so with flows fully recovered. Production and exports are back to pre-war levels, Faqih said. September exports neared pre-war volumes on heavier Hormuz shipments, even with the East-West pipeline down for most of the month, per Bloomberg tanker data.

REMEMBER- Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said late last month the company was studying two additional crude-export corridors to strengthen network redundancy, without specifying routes. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné has since said Saudi Arabia has “begun to work” on a crude pipeline to Oman’s Indian Ocean port of Duqm, AGBI reports. This possibly offers a clue to the Kingdom’s wider search for alternatives.

AND- Aramco will deliver full November crude allocations to European refiners, reversing the cutoff that wiped out its October shipments to the continent after a drone attack knocked the East-West pipeline offline, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. At least three refiners confirmed they will receive complete volumes.

IN CONTEXT- The pipeline restart is what makes it possible. European barrels cross the Kingdom to Yanbu, then move via Egypt’s Sumed pipeline to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean, a route that went dark when the East-West pipeline was hit. Aramco cut European term customers off for October while routing more barrels through Hormuz toward Asian buyers, leaving refiners to search for replacements. Poland’s Orlen, which draws some 40% of its oil from Aramco, bought several cargoes in spot tenders and issued more than 10 replacement tenders.

Beyond the routes, Aramco is reworking the terms of sale. It’s in talks with customers to offer crude loadings outside Hormuz under its 2027 long-term contracts, potentially turning a wartime workaround into a formal export option, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the discussions. Pricing, freight terms, and eligible volumes are still being negotiated, with no final decisions made and a year-end target to wrap up talks.

The talks go beyond formalizing Aramco’s ship-to-ship shuttle. The oil giant already carries barrels through Hormuz and hands them off outside the strait. Now it’s exploring arranging the shipping itself to deliver more crude directly to customers, potentially all the way to Asia. That would reverse the pre-war model, in which buyers sent their own vessels, and could let Aramco capture some of the windfall from soaring charter costs.

Pricing could shift too: Some Asian buyers are discussing pricing long-term purchases against Brent futures instead of Dubai and Oman benchmarks, the sources said. Long-term contracts make up the bulk of Saudi supply, so any change to their terms would reach most of the Kingdom’s crude.

REMEMBER- Aramco sold around 60 mn barrels from Ras Tanura for ship-to-ship transfer off Sohar across September and October, and was weighing price reductions of c. USD 9 / bbl to offset higher freight costs.

4

CONSTRUCTION

Saudi construction keeps expanding even as awards slip and costs hit a 2026-high

Saudi Arabia held its place as the Gulf’s largest projects market in 3Q. Construction grew even as new contract awards fell and building costs hit an annual high. Two reports paint the picture: Kamco Invest’s GCC Projects Market Update (pdf), citing Meed Projects data, tracks the money being committed, while the Al Rajhi Capital Saudi Construction Index (pdf) shows the work actually underway. Together they show a sector still busy and still securing the region’s biggest share of work, though paying more for it and drawing on fewer segments.

The money kept flowing, just less of it. Saudi awards reached USD 24.4 bn in 3Q, the highest value in the GCC, and USD 73.4 bn over nine months, down from USD 79.5 bn a year earlier, per Kamco.

The mix is where the war is felt: Construction contracts led, up 7.6% y-o-y to USD 9.2 bn, the Kingdom’s biggest segment, and gas jumped 80.1% to USD 6.9 bn. Oil went the other way, collapsing to USD 460 mn from USD 3.8 bn a year earlier as disruptions around the straits hit energy exports, and power awards fell 83.4% to USD 1.6 bn.

Aramco is still the anchor: The oil giant has earmarked USD 50–55 bn for investment in 2026, roughly 65-70% of it for oil and gas, and had already spent USD 12.3 bn on upstream contracts by the quarter, with the largest share going to development of the Dorra gas field.

But 3Q went to the hospitals: Contracts awarded in the quarter included USD 208 mn for mechanical, electrical, and plumbing works at Almoosa Hospital in Al-Khobar, and a USD 105.6 mn contract to finish Taiba University Hospital in Madinah, covering remaining civil works, building systems, clinical fit-outs, and medical-gas infrastructure.

On the ground, the work is still growing. Al Rajhi Capital Saudi Construction Index reached 55.4 in August from 55.2 in July, a fifth straight month above the 50 contraction line, though the slowest pace in four. All three segments expanded: residential led at 56.6, infrastructure quickened to 55.8 from 53.9, and non-residential came in at 50.9. New orders rose for a fifth month, if at the softest rate since May, with infrastructure pulling demand from large housing, transport and industrial work.

… while costs rose at the fastest pace yet. Around 45% of firms reported higher input prices in September and fewer than 1% saw a decline, taking input-cost inflation to its fastest since the survey began in January.

Even so, companies remained optimistic, with 34% expecting activity to rise over the next three months, against 8% bracing for a fall.

Zoom out

The Saudi market stood out against a regional slump. GCC awards fell 37.2% y-o-y and 19.2% q-o-q to USD 47.4 bn, which Kamco put down to the war’s hit to energy exports, trade routes and infrastructure; nine-month awards still rose 2.5% to USD 204.1 bn on a stronger start to the year.

The Kingdom holds the biggest slice of what’s coming: 49.7% of the GCC’s USD 2.05 tn pipeline of planned and unawarded projects is going to the Kingdom, coming to about USD 1.02 tn. Construction makes up 38.3% of that regional pipeline, transport 16.8% and power 15.9%.

One pipeline to watch is data centers. Meed tracks more than 174 active and planned data-center projects across the GCC worth over USD 93 bn, including a USD 5 bn build at Oxagon in Neom and an Amazon Web Services facility in the Saudi Arabia Zone.

5

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Aramco backs lithium extraction pilot, Echelon raises funding for AI expansion, Cenomi Retail changes trading name

Lithium gets a USD 200 mn test run

Aramco tapped oilfield services firm National Energy Services Reunited (Nesr) to set up a lithium demonstration project in the Kingdom, according to a statement. The five-year, USD 200 mn agreement will see Nesr’s environmental unit use its proprietary Lithara platform to extract lithium from brine, targeting 2k tons a year of battery-grade lithium carbonate from late 2027.

Why it matters: We reported in January that access to critical minerals like lithium — which goes into rechargeable batteries for everything from phones and laptops to EVs and grid storage — was moving up the policy agenda across the GCC in 2026 as industrial development and energy transition efforts gather pace. The Shura Council already raised the issue of locally sourcing lithium in 2024, citing future demand for electric vehicles.

REMEMBER- Aramco’s efforts to unlock lithium from its oilfield brines date back to 2024, when it teamed up with Maaden and startup Lithium Infinity to launch a commercial pilot for direct lithium extraction after detecting the mineral in brine samples. Aramco and Maaden also signed a non-binding heads of agreement in 2025 to form a lithium extraction joint venture by 2027, and last August set up a mining JV to focus on copper and other critical minerals.

Echelon’s AI raise

AI transformation company Echelon has raised an undisclosed investment round from East40, RAED Ventures, and Avra, alongside Ben Horowitz, to expand AI deployment across Saudi Arabia’s private and public sectors, the firm said in a press release. The company plans to launch an applied AI engineering unit and a training institute in 4Q 2026, followed by a defense-focused division in 1Q 2027. It eventually aims to expand across the wider region.

About the company: Founded 10 years ago in Riyadh by Prince Khalid Bin Bader Al Saud, Echelon connects AI technology providers with businesses and government entities, helping them deploy AI in day-to-day operations. Its partners include Applied Intuition, IFS and Rubrik.

Cenomi bows out

AFG International has retired the Cenomi Retail name from Tadawul, adopting AFG Retail as its trading identity effective 8 October, according to a company statement (pdf). The company’s registered name remains AFG International Company and its ticker stays unchanged at 4240, with existing contracts, franchise agreements, and leadership structure unaffected.

REMEMBER- The rebrand follows UAE conglomerate Al Futtaim’s acquisition of a 49.95% stake in the retailer for SAR 2.5 bn last year. The company changed its registered name to AFG International earlier this year, while keeping Cenomi Retail as its trading name until now.

6

PLANET FINANCE

War puts regional growth on the path to a contraction

It’s not all bad news for regional growth prospects this year, with chances in sectors like AI offering some light to offset the gloom cast by the conflict across our region. Globally, growth has only been shaved down to 2.5% from 2.6% at the start of the year.

Growth in our neck of the woods is likely to trail global averages, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report (pdf). Output for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region is now set to contract by 2.1% this year, reversing last year’s 3.3% expansion.

Within the GCC, the effects will be starker, as economies are set for a 4.3% contraction, according to the World Bank. GCC growth projection came in at 4.4% for this year back in January. The UAE is set for a 1.6% contraction, 2% is penciled in for KSA, and Qatar is staring down a 20.9% decline.

Surprising exactly no one, the war has been the biggest dampener of growth after it cut off the export route for one-fifth of oil and LNG. Effects weren’t limited to depleted oil revenues, but also put the brakes on other sectors that had been showing strong indicators of growth, such as tourism, logistics, and aviation, while also weighing on business sentiment and driving food inflation.

The picture is also fragmented: Alternative export routes for KSA, the UAE, and Oman helped offset some of the oil revenue losses. On the flip side, oil-importing economies have avoided much of the brunt exporters faced and are set to see growth rates rise to 4.3%, up from 3.9% last year.

Could AI be the saving grace? The World Bank sees AI as transformative, but notes a massive schism within the region when it comes to who is positioned to catch the upside as it stands (the UAE and KSA), and countries like Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia, which are home to growing digital ecosystems and readiness gaps simultaneously. Lagging regulation and the current lack of Arabic-trained AI models also risk hampering the region from reaping the benefits of AI.

Regional cooperation on AI is the region’s biggest, and yes, most untapped, opportunity, according to the report, which sees pooling resources, compute capacity, and government frameworks as leading to a more broad-based benefit.

The outlook: Heightened uncertainty, higher interest rates leading to less financial space for regional entities, and inflationary pressure are all downside risks to watch out for. If the regional geopolitical situation stabilized by the end of the year, growth would rebound to 7.8% for 2027.

But that comes with a caveat: The World Bank flags that any such growth would be chalked up to restored oil exports rather than an uptick in productivity, stressing the need for better regional resilience to hedge against future crises.

TASI

10,376

-1.6% (YTD: -1.1%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,396

-1.6% (YTD: +0.6%)

NomuC

21,612

-0.8% (YTD: -7.2%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

53,265

-0.1% (YTD: +27.3%)

ADX

9,796

-0.1% (YTD: -2.0%)

DFM

5,818

+0.3% (YTD: -3.8%)

S&P 500

7,812

+0.6% (YTD: +14.1%)

FTSE 100

10,552

+1.1% (YTD: +6.3%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,173

+0.8% (YTD: +6.5%)

Brent crude

USD 104.72

+0.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.22

+1.6%

Gold

USD 4,216

+1.4%

BTC

USD 82,964

+0.5% (YTD: -5.3%)

Sukuk/bond market index

885.91

-0.1% (YTD: -3.6%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

146.90

+0.3% (YTD: -3.3%)

VIX (Fear gauge)

14.84

-3.7% (YTD: -0.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.6% last Thursday on turnover of SAR 4.4 bn. The index is down 1.1% YTD.

In the green: Watani Iron Steel (+10%), Najran Cement (+3%), and Southern Province Cement (+1.8%).

In the red: United Electronics (-8.1%), United International Holding (-8%), and Saudi Paper Manufacturing (-5.2%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.8% last Thursday on turnover of SAR 20.3 mn. The index is down 7.2% YTD.

In the green: MSGA Investment (+10%), Rimath Hospitality (+8.8%), and Arabica Star (+7.8%).

In the red: Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars (-25%), Taqat Mineral Trading (-17.5%), and Digital Research (-13.3%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Solutions shareholders approved a one-for-one bonus issue that doubles the company’s capital to SAR 2.4 bn from SAR 1.2 bn and its share count to 240 mn from 120 mn, according to a Tadawul filing. The increase will be funded by capitalizing SAR 1.2 bn from retained earnings. Shareholders who held shares at the close of trading on 6 October, the day of the EGM, and were registered with Edaa by 8 October are eligible.


11-15 October (Sunday-Thursday): WPC Energy Congress, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh.

11-15 October (Sunday-Thursday): Riyadh Energy Week, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh.

14-17 October 2027 (Thursday-Sunday): Red Sea Yacht Show, Jeddah Yacht Club, Jeddah.

21 October - 30 December (Wednesday-Wednesday): Riyadh Season, Riyadh.

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2027

JANUARY

12-14 January (Tuesday-Thursday): The Future Minerals Forum (FMF), Riyadh.

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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