THIS MORNING: The US clears a potential USD 24.3 bn F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia

Good morning, all. There’s a question hanging over the region this morning, and no one has an answer yet: who can get the Houthis to stand down?

Riyadh has tried the obvious levers, exchanging strikes with the group over the weekend — one of which is the most likely, though still unconfirmed, culprit behind the fire at Riyadh’s airport. However, the more consequential action has shifted from the battlefield to the switchboard, as the efforts widen to include the one address that might have real pull: Tehran. China, Pakistan, and Turkey have all leaned on Iran to rein in the Houthis, with no tangible results.

AND- On steadier ground, the Kingdom’s small businesses are having a good week, with bns in new financing landing just as a fresh SME strategy puts access to capital front and center.

The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is less than a month away — and here's some of what’s shaping up on the agenda:

• Where AI fits on the list of topics keeping CEOs awake at night
• What AI means for your company, your team, your job, and your family
• What's the AI opportunity for Egypt
• Building the AI infrastructure

And more panels to come.

Join us on 5 October in Cairo. Attendance is by invitation only, and seats are filling up quickly.

Request your invitation here.

F-35s cleared

The US State Department has approved a potential USD 24.3 bn sale of 48 F-35A Lightning II fighters to Saudi Arabia, along with 49 Pratt & Whitney engines, communications equipment, spare parts, and support items, according to a notification sent to Congress on Thursday. Lockheed Martin Aeronautics is the principal contractor.

Why it matters: The request has been public since November 2025, but the formal sign-off puts a specific F-35 package on the table for the first time, after the Pentagon had been less keen to approve the jets. The potential sale would round out an arsenal that runs from relatively cheap interceptors and rockets to some of the world’s most advanced combat aircraft.

This caps a year-long run of US arms clearances, including a potential USD 9 bn sale of 730 Patriot interceptors announced in January, a USD 2 bn sale of 10k APKWS-II guided rockets over the summer, and a further USD 5.75 bn package this month covering JDAM-ER systems and AGT-1500 engines.

And it comes a day after the Houthis said they downed a Saudi F-15 over Marib with a locally produced missile, releasing footage of charred desert and debris resembling wings, an engine, and a tail fin carrying the Saudi flag, the Wall Street Journal reports. Saudi Arabia is yet to confirm the incident, and the fate of the jet’s crew remains unclear.

What’s next: The sale still needs to clear Congress, and it would take several years before the first aircraft reach the Kingdom, Axios reports.

What could hold it up: Israel did not object as forcefully as it did to a Turkish F-35 package, but wanted the sale conditioned on Saudi normalization with Israel, which Trump declined to require. US intelligence analysts have raised the risk of Chinese access to F-35 technology through Saudi partnerships.

Redirecting flows

Saudi Arabia is rerouting its oil exports back through the Gulf to cover the gap left by the strike on the East-West pipeline. Aramco has sold roughly 60 mn barrels from Ras Tanura for ship-to-ship transfer off Sohar, Oman this month and the next, lifting the company’s Gulf exports back to 1-1.5 mn bbl / d, in line with or slightly above August, Reuters reports, citing trade sources.

The workaround has taken some heat out of prices: Crude sat at USD 103.9 a barrel, down 4.5% over three sessions.

The barrels are heading to Asia, at a price. Chinese and South Korean refiners are the main buyers, with some cargoes bound for India and Japan, though supertanker freight rates have hit record levels.

But it comes at a cost to buyers elsewhere: Aramco has told at least two European refining customers they’ll get no crude next month under their long-term contracts, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. The move applies to all European buyers, who normally receive guaranteed monthly Saudi supply through term contracts, a sign of how far Aramco is reshuffling flows to keep its Gulf and Asian routes supplied while the pipeline is down.

ICYMI- Saudi Arabia aims to bring roughly half the East-West pipeline back online within days, with full repairs estimated at five to six weeks. In the meantime, Aramco has doubled daily loadings from Ras Tanura and Juaymah to two VLCCs, around 4 mn barrels, over the past week.

Safqah Capital eyes IPO

Fintech Safqah Capital aims to list in the next few years, CEO Abdullah Alsubaie told Argaam on the sidelines of Money 20/20. The two-year-old, Riyadh-based company finances real estate developers through sukuk and other debt instruments and has financed almost SAR 5 bn worth of development.

REMEMBER- The company raised USD 15.2 mn in a seed funding round led by Shorooq in February. The funding is being used to expand its financing capacity, upgrade its digital platform, and add AI tools for risk assessment and underwriting.

Data point

USD 142.4 bn — that’s how much Saudi Arabia held in US treasuries in July, down USD 120 mn m-o-m, according to the US Treasury Department. The Kingdom remained the 17th-largest holder of US debt, with USD 110.2 bn in long-term bonds, about 77% of its total holdings, and USD 32.2 bn in short-term securities.

***

You’re reading EnterpriseAM Saudi, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about Saudi, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Sunday through Thursday by 7am Riyadh time.

EnterpriseAM Saudi is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Tas’heel and Hassan Allam Properties.

Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on [email protected].

DID YOU KNOW that we also cover MENA+, Egypt, the UAE, and the MENA logistics industry?

Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM Saudi delivered every weekday.

***

The big story abroad

Fears over rogue AI were a major focus of news coverage over the weekend. US President Donald Trump will launch AI Force, a new unit focused on AI, after major figures in the sector publicly sounded the alarm over the technology’s dangers. Meanwhile, as debate surged around a so-called AI kill switch to shut down rogue systems, a bipartisan bill requiring the safety mechanism stalled shortly after its introduction in Congress.

An AI player is stepping in: Anthropic has partnered with tech consulting outfit Accenture to conduct third-party evaluations of its frontier models, with each party committing USD 1 bn over the next five years to build testing capacity.

Not quite the 51st state: A new pact between the US and Denmark settles a diplomatic rift over Greenland’s defense, following threats by President Donald Trump to forcibly acquire the territory. The accord will forbid states seen as Washington’s rivals from establishing a military presence on the world’s largest island. Despite Trump saying that the agreement gives the US “permanent control,” Copenhagen and Nuuk said the pact would not compromise Greenland's sovereignty.

Oil flows in post-Maduro Caracas: Interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez signed an MoU with French energy giant TotalEnergies, marking the latest energy pact between foreign players and Caracas’ interim administration following Washington’s ouster of Nicolas Maduro in January.