THIS MORNING: Riyadh reroutes crude as Houthis strike airbase, talks stall

Good morning and happy hump day. A week into the latest round of fighting, the target is King Khalid Airbase, and civil defense was running alerts in four cities at once.

The line that will travel furthest came out of Vienna. Prince Abdulaziz chose the IAEA General Conference to set out a domestic uranium chain — exploration through yellowcake.

At Expo, the private sector is getting in on the build. Mohammed Al Habib is taking SAR 3.2 bn to develop Expo Village in a JV — housing, retail, and services for a headline use that lasts six months and a life that runs well past it.

The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is less than a month away — and here’s some of what’s shaping up on the agenda:

• Where AI fits on the list of topics keeping CEOs awake at night
• What AI means for your company, your team, your job, and your family
• What’s the AI opportunity for Egypt
• Building the AI infrastructure

And more panels to come.

Join us on 5 October in Cairo. Attendance is by invitation only, and seats are filling up quickly.

Request your invitation here.

More strikes, no talks

Houthi militants launched a fresh offensive on the Kingdom earlier today and fortified their presence on Yemen’s western coast, Reuters reports, citing Yemeni officials. The attack follows yesterday’s missile and drone strikes at King Khalid Airbase in Khamis Mushait, which targeted aircraft hangars, radar systems, runways, and ammunition depots, the group’s military spokesperson Yahya Saree said. The insurgents said the attack was retaliation for over 300 Saudi airstrikes on Yemen in recent days, while Saudi authorities issued brief emergency alerts in Khamis Mushait and other cities such as Abha, Jazan, and Najran.

The fighting continues as GCC countries called off a meeting with Tehran at Riyadh’s request, Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said, according to Reuters. The meeting, which was scheduled to take place in Salalah yesterday, was expected to involve negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is “frustrated” over the continued attacks by Iran-backed groups, Bloomberg reports, citing sources in the know.

Meanwhile, Riyadh is pushing barrels back through Hormuz: The Kingdom is trying to increase shipments through the strait to offset the East-West pipeline shutdown, Bloomberg reports, citing a person familiar with the matter. Aramco had lifted total exports to 4 mn bbl / d in early September — around 1 mn bbl / d through Hormuz and the rest via Yanbu — after August shipments fell to some 3 mn bbl / d, the lowest level in at least nine years. The 1.2k-km pipeline runs 7 mn bbl / d at capacity, around 5 mn of which is for export.

The catch is ships: Freight costs are at record highs, with hauling crude from Saudi Gulf ports to China nearing USD 1 mn a day on Friday for the first time. More than a dozen Saudi vessels have been waiting just outside the strait in recent weeks.

The East-West pipeline could be mostly out of service for as long as six weeks, although repair estimates vary. Some industry sources suggest that partial flows could resume as work continues. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said yesterday that he expects it to be running “very soon.” Yanbu holds only five to seven days of crude supply; past that point, a prolonged outage could force production cuts, a Sparta Commodities analyst tells Bloomberg. At least four Asian refiners are still waiting for clarity on crude cargoes scheduled for pickup at Yanbu.

There’s more: Houthi militants captured two strategically critical Red Sea islands, Greater and Lesser Hanish, the Associated Press reports. The islands are situated 160 km north of Bab Al Mandab, a vital maritime bottleneck linking the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Conviction buy

Citigroup is doubling down on Saudi Arabia despite the Iran war, raising over USD 40 bn for Saudi clients year-to-date, Citi Saudi Arabia Chief Country Officer Fahad Aldeweesh tells Semafor. The US bank has lifted its internal exposure limits on the Kingdom since the conflict began, Aldeweesh said, citing the Kingdom’s “strong economic resilience and financial resilience.”

Saudi Arabia is a “high priority market” for Citi, with the bank expecting IPO activity to recover in the coming months and planning to continue expanding its Saudi team beyond its current 35 employees.

The recent track record: Citi expanded its presence in the Kingdom by advising and coordinating several sizable transactions, including Saudi Arabia’s USD 3.25 bn sukuk and ANB’s debt offering. It is also reportedly advising Aramco on a potential sale of a stake in its oil export and storage terminals.

A hedge across Brics

Saudi Arabia went to the Brics Summit in New Delhi — as an invited country, not a member — pitching non-oil exports, inbound capital, and technology partnerships. The Kingdom’s actual export mix to the bloc is fuel, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and plastics, which is the area the pitch has to cover.

By the numbers: Saudi trade with China hit SAR 431.6 bn in 2025, according to Gastat, against SAR 109.9 bn of exports to India. Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia figure mainly as sources of food, agricultural, and industrial goods, rather than as markets.

Why it matters: With shipping still disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, spreading trading partners and supply chains across the bloc is a hedge against near-term route risk.

Washington’s next ambassador?

US President Donald Trump has nominated Congressman ‌Wesley Hunt to be the next ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Reuters reports. If confirmed, Hunt — a Republican Texas representative – will fill a diplomatic vacancy that has remained open since Trump assumed his second term in January 2025. This nomination joins a wave of appointments sent for Senate approval weeks before midterm elections decide if the GOP will keep its majority.

Sports

Kuwait will host the Saudi Super Cup for the first time, with the Saudi Arabian Football Federation selecting Kuwait’s Altai Media Group as its official partner for the 2026-27 season, SPA reports. The tournament runs on 19-23 December at Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium, featuring Al Nassr, Al Ahli, Al Qadsiah, and Al Kholood.

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The big story abroad

AI-linked stocks around the world dropped on Monday after industry leaders warned of potential dire consequences of rapid AI development. Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped to a six-week low driven by a chip stock selloff before paring losses to 0.4%, while the Dow shed 152 points. Nvidia slid 3.4% — weighed down by its sheer market size — despite soaring incomes driven by AI chip demand.

More climate cuts: The Trump administration will cut Biden-era climate rules limiting greenhouse-gas emissions from power plants by forcing coal- and gas-fired power sites to use technologies like carbon capture. The Environmental Protection Agency — which stands to save more than USD 300 bn through the measure — argued that global greenhouse gas harms are too remote and uncertain to tie to US power plants, placing them outside Clean Air Act authority.

East-West mineral race: The Pentagon will acquire a near-20% stake in Elmet Group through a USD 450 mn investment, expanding the Trump administration’s push to secure critical mineral supplies outside China. The move aims to boost domestic manufacturing of tungsten — a key metal used in military hardware — and expand long-term access to feedstock, sending Elmet's shares surging up to 55%.