Full fuel cycle

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Riyadh reroutes crude as Houthis strike airbase, talks stall

Good morning and happy hump day. A week into the latest round of fighting, the target is King Khalid Airbase, and civil defense was running alerts in four cities at once.

The line that will travel furthest came out of Vienna. Prince Abdulaziz chose the IAEA General Conference to set out a domestic uranium chain — exploration through yellowcake.

At Expo, the private sector is getting in on the build. Mohammed Al Habib is taking SAR 3.2 bn to develop Expo Village in a JV — housing, retail, and services for a headline use that lasts six months and a life that runs well past it.

The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is less than a month away — and here’s some of what’s shaping up on the agenda:

  • Where AI fits on the list of topics keeping CEOs awake at night
  • What AI means for your company, your team, your job, and your family
  • What’s the AI opportunity for Egypt
  • Building the AI infrastructure

And more panels to come.

Join us on 5 October in Cairo. Attendance is by invitation only, and seats are filling up quickly.

Request your invitation here.

More strikes, no talks

Houthi militants launched a fresh offensive on the Kingdom earlier today and fortified their presence on Yemen’s western coast, Reuters reports, citing Yemeni officials. The attack follows yesterday’s missile and drone strikes at King Khalid Airbase in Khamis Mushait, which targeted aircraft hangars, radar systems, runways, and ammunition depots, the group’s military spokesperson Yahya Saree said. The insurgents said the attack was retaliation for over 300 Saudi airstrikes on Yemen in recent days, while Saudi authorities issued brief emergency alerts in Khamis Mushait and other cities such as Abha, Jazan, and Najran.

The fighting continues as GCC countries called off a meeting with Tehran at Riyadh’s request, Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said, according to Reuters. The meeting, which was scheduled to take place in Salalah yesterday, was expected to involve negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is “frustrated” over the continued attacks by Iran-backed groups, Bloomberg reports, citing sources in the know.

Meanwhile, Riyadh is pushing barrels back through Hormuz: The Kingdom is trying to increase shipments through the strait to offset the East-West pipeline shutdown, Bloomberg reports, citing a person familiar with the matter. Aramco had lifted total exports to 4 mn bbl / d in early September — around 1 mn bbl / d through Hormuz and the rest via Yanbu — after August shipments fell to some 3 mn bbl / d, the lowest level in at least nine years. The 1.2k-km pipeline runs 7 mn bbl / d at capacity, around 5 mn of which is for export.

The catch is ships: Freight costs are at record highs, with hauling crude from Saudi Gulf ports to China nearing USD 1 mn a day on Friday for the first time. More than a dozen Saudi vessels have been waiting just outside the strait in recent weeks.

The East-West pipeline could be mostly out of service for as long as six weeks, although repair estimates vary. Some industry sources suggest that partial flows could resume as work continues. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said yesterday that he expects it to be running “very soon.” Yanbu holds only five to seven days of crude supply; past that point, a prolonged outage could force production cuts, a Sparta Commodities analyst tells Bloomberg. At least four Asian refiners are still waiting for clarity on crude cargoes scheduled for pickup at Yanbu.

There’s more: Houthi militants captured two strategically critical Red Sea islands, Greater and Lesser Hanish, the Associated Press reports. The islands are situated 160 km north of Bab Al Mandab, a vital maritime bottleneck linking the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Conviction buy

Citigroup is doubling down on Saudi Arabia despite the Iran war, raising over USD 40 bn for Saudi clients year-to-date, Citi Saudi Arabia Chief Country Officer Fahad Aldeweesh tells Semafor. The US bank has lifted its internal exposure limits on the Kingdom since the conflict began, Aldeweesh said, citing the Kingdom’s “strong economic resilience and financial resilience.”

Saudi Arabia is a “high priority market” for Citi, with the bank expecting IPO activity to recover in the coming months and planning to continue expanding its Saudi team beyond its current 35 employees.

The recent track record: Citi expanded its presence in the Kingdom by advising and coordinating several sizable transactions, including Saudi Arabia’s USD 3.25 bn sukuk and ANB’s debt offering. It is also reportedly advising Aramco on a potential sale of a stake in its oil export and storage terminals.

A hedge across Brics

Saudi Arabia went to the Brics Summit in New Delhi — as an invited country, not a member — pitching non-oil exports, inbound capital, and technology partnerships. The Kingdom’s actual export mix to the bloc is fuel, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and plastics, which is the area the pitch has to cover.

By the numbers: Saudi trade with China hit SAR 431.6 bn in 2025, according to Gastat, against SAR 109.9 bn of exports to India. Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia figure mainly as sources of food, agricultural, and industrial goods, rather than as markets.

Why it matters: With shipping still disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, spreading trading partners and supply chains across the bloc is a hedge against near-term route risk.

Washington’s next ambassador?

US President Donald Trump has nominated Congressman ‌Wesley Hunt to be the next ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Reuters reports. If confirmed, Hunt — a Republican Texas representative – will fill a diplomatic vacancy that has remained open since Trump assumed his second term in January 2025. This nomination joins a wave of appointments sent for Senate approval weeks before midterm elections decide if the GOP will keep its majority.

Sports

Kuwait will host the Saudi Super Cup for the first time, with the Saudi Arabian Football Federation selecting Kuwait’s Altai Media Group as its official partner for the 2026-27 season, SPA reports. The tournament runs on 19-23 December at Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium, featuring Al Nassr, Al Ahli, Al Qadsiah, and Al Kholood.

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***

The big story abroad

AI-linked stocks around the world dropped on Monday after industry leaders warned of potential dire consequences of rapid AI development. Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped to a six-week low driven by a chip stock selloff before paring losses to 0.4%, while the Dow shed 152 points. Nvidia slid 3.4% — weighed down by its sheer market size — despite soaring incomes driven by AI chip demand.

More climate cuts: The Trump administration will cut Biden-era climate rules limiting greenhouse-gas emissions from power plants by forcing coal- and gas-fired power sites to use technologies like carbon capture. The Environmental Protection Agency — which stands to save more than USD 300 bn through the measure — argued that global greenhouse gas harms are too remote and uncertain to tie to US power plants, placing them outside Clean Air Act authority.

East-West mineral race: The Pentagon will acquire a near-20% stake in Elmet Group through a USD 450 mn investment, expanding the Trump administration’s push to secure critical mineral supplies outside China. The move aims to boost domestic manufacturing of tungsten — a key metal used in military hardware — and expand long-term access to feedstock, sending Elmet's shares surging up to 55%.

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ENERGY

Saudi Arabia plans domestic uranium value chain

Saudi Arabia wants to build a domestic uranium value chain, running from exploration through yellowcake production, alongside adding nuclear power to its energy mix, Energy and Industry Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the IAEA General Conference in Vienna.

The Kingdom is pursuing three main tracks to develop its uranium resources — extracting uranium as a byproduct of phosphoric acid production for phosphate fertilizer, developing resources identified at Jabal Sayid in Madinah, and expanding geological surveys for conventional uranium deposits. Jabal Sayid contains around 114 mn tons of ore with high concentrations of rare earth elements alongside uranium indications.

The program is being pursued “transparently” with no activities done “in hiding” or at “undisclosed facilities,” Prince Abdulaziz said, noting this will happen through international partnerships and cooperation with the IAEA, rather than “in isolation from the international community.” The remarks were aimed at Iran, whose main enrichment sites sit deep underground and which has blocked agency checks on its near-bomb-grade stockpile since June 2025.

Washington’s line is narrower: There are “no plans at all for enrichment in Saudi Arabia,” US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said yesterday, according to Bloomberg, describing July’s 30-year civil nuclear pact as being about commercial power generation. Riyadh’s stated ambition runs to the full fuel cycle.

REMEMBER- Riyadh won’t sign the IAEA’s additional protocol — the tool that gives the UN nuclear watchdog its most sweeping inspection powers — but is negotiating bespoke bilateral provisions to sit in its place, which would authorize the agency to monitor uranium enrichment, conversion, and reprocessing specifically.

Why it matters: The push points to ambitions in refining and processing rather than raw extraction alone. The Kingdom is working with US-based MP Materials on refining at Jabal Sayid and with France’s Orano to extract uranium from its phosphate resources, which could make processing a larger share of its next investment cycle.

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3

CONSTRUCTION

Private capital joins Expo 2030 Riyadh with SAR 3.2 bn JV

Expo 2030 Riyadh is bringing private capital into its development pipeline, signing a SAR 3.2 bn joint venture with Mohammed Al Habib Real Estate to develop Expo Village, according to a press release. The village will include around 2.3k residential units with capacity for roughly 5.5k residents, alongside retail, dining, amenities, and services. The agreement reflects a push toward “building effective partnerships with the private sector,” Expo 2030 Riyadh CEO Talal Al Marri said.

Built for Expo, but designed to stay: The village is designed to serve the six-month event and retain its value after it closes. “The project is conceived as a new district of Riyadh — a destination for the city and for future generations — built around a high-quality public realm: shaded, climate-responsive, walkable, and connected to nature,” Executive Director and Head of Design Giovanna Carnevali said on LinkedIn.

The war is shaping procurement: Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC) is leaning harder on local suppliers as the US-Iran conflict squeezes Saudi supply chains. Delivery manager Bechtel has increased procurement of Saudi-made pipes, cabling, and concrete and brought orders forward to hedge against potential disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

REMEMBER- The project is still in its infrastructure phase — infrastructure awards are already moving ahead. ERC awarded two contracts worth a combined SAR 1.5 bn in April, including the third lot of the site’s infrastructure package covering utilities, roads, and EV charging infrastructure.

4

DIGITIZATION

The gap between Saudi AI spending and returns comes down to governance and scale -Liferay

Saudi companies have moved past AI pilots, but the gap between what they spend on AI and what they get back hasn’t closed, and digital experience platform provider Liferay thinks it knows why. Regional Manager Ahmad Saad tells EnterpriseAM that “the biggest gap is between experimentation and seamless operationalization.”

Running a tool inside one team is easy. The harder part is scaling it across the enterprise while maintaining security, governance, and data quality. That, Saad said, is where the return on AI will increasingly be decided — less by how much a company spends on models than by how well it connects AI to the data and systems it already has.

Governance is both the company’s sales pitch and, Saad argues, the market’s blind spot. When departments adopt AI on their own, he said, organizations end up with “different tools, data sources, and security approaches,” duplicating cost and leaving IT and leadership unclear on where AI is running and what it can reach. Liferay’s answer is AI Hub, a low-code platform for building and running AI agents on top of the access controls of its digital experience platform. On it, agents act on behalf of authenticated users and reach only the data those users are cleared to see, with interactions logged. It’s model-agnostic and connects to outside systems through the Model Context Protocol (MCP).

SOUND SMART- Chatbots and enterprise agents are not the same. “A chatbot primarily responds to a user, while an enterprise AI agent participates in a business process,” Saad said. A support agent, in his example, should do more than answer a question — it could access authorized customer information, identify the issue, retrieve the relevant knowledge, and support the next step in the workflow, all within set permissions. At enterprise scale, organizations need to see what an agent accessed, what it did, and under whose authority it acted, he said.

In large organizations, the issue is less a lack of data than the inability to make the right data “accessible, connected, and governed,” Saad says. Companies hold information across websites, customer platforms, knowledge bases, enterprise applications, and systems of record. “If those systems remain disconnected, AI only sees part of the information required to complete a task effectively,” he tells us.

Data volume decides who pulls ahead: Saad identified sectors with high data volumes and heavy customer or employee interaction as best positioned to benefit, including financial services, telecoms, government, healthcare, retail, and travel and tourism. The biggest financial upside, he noted, likely lies in use cases where agents support several steps of an existing process — from customer-service triage to content pipelines, compliance review, and supply-chain risk monitoring.

5

STARTUP WATCH

Tabby hits USD 6.5 bn valuation on Series F round

MENA’s most valuable fintech just got more valuable. Tabby raised USD 233 mn at a USD 6.5 bn valuation in a Series F round led by Hong Kong’s Blue Pool Capital, with existing backers HSG, Wellington Management, and Arbor Ventures taking part, the company said in a statement. Tabby was last valued at USD 4.5 bn at its share sale in October 2025.

“The proceeds are primarily about giving us the capital to go deeper in our two core markets,” CEO and co-founder Hosam Arab tells Reuters, referring to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Part of the round also provides liquidity to employees, extending share tenders Tabby has run since 2023, which have facilitated more than USD 100 mn in share sales.

The raise also funds Tabby’s move from its BNPL core into full financial services. Over the past year, the firm secured consumer and SME finance licenses from the Saudi Central Bank (Sama), enabling it to offer larger, longer-term consumer financing alongside working capital for businesses. It also acquired Tweeq, a Sama-licensed digital wallet, adding accounts, cards, and transfers. In the UAE, a Stored Value Facilities license from the central bank lets it run TabbyCash, a zero-fee alternative to a debit account with cashback and money transfers.

No rush to IPO: Arab tells Reuters Tabby is focused on scaling its core and newer products rather than timing a listing. “We are profitable and well capitalized, so fortunately we do not need to force the timing,” he says. “If and when we list, we’ll choose the market that makes the most sense.”

The scale behind the number: Tabby has been profitable since 2023 and processes more than USD 18 bn in annualized transaction volume across 25 mn registered users and 70k business partners, including Amazon and Shein.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Arabian Drilling’s backlog hits record SAR 16 bn on second SLB land-rig contract

Arabian Drilling adds eight rigs

Arabian Drilling’s backlog has hit a record SAR 16 bn after it signed a second contract with SLB, this one covering eight additional land rigs for gas operations, per a Tadawul filing. The five-year contract adds around SAR 2 bn in incremental backlog and follows last month’s five-year agreement for 11 rigs. Together, the two contracts add roughly SAR 5 bn to backlog and represent the largest gas lump-sum turnkey (LSTK) commitment the company has secured, keeping its 100% share of domestic gas LSTK work.

The rigs will be redeployed from Arabian Drilling's existing available fleet instead of being newly built and are expected to start contributing to revenue from 4Q 2026.

Why it matters: Backlog is forward revenue visibility, and Arabian Drilling just locked in its highest-ever backlog, entirely from domestic gas work. Redeploying idle rigs rather than building new ones also means the backlog converts to revenue without heavy fresh capital, which matters for a company that recently slipped into a loss after offshore rig suspensions.

Rent-a-robot

Chinese robotics company Agibot has launched a robot rental service in Saudi Arabia, with prices starting at SAR 2k per day, Global Account Director Shen Yuchang told Asharq Business. The price is a floor, not a fixed rate, with costs varying by robot type, equipment, and task. The model lets customers deploy robots without putting in the upfront capital required to buy them. The service will also be available in the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Turkey.

The early adopters: Saudi Arabia could become a regional hub for robotics and embodied AI, Shen said. Manufacturing, logistics and warehousing, energy, security, and inspection are among the Saudi sectors likely to be quickest to adopt robotics, alongside education and research, entertainment, and hospitality.

Tarabut secures USD 50 mn for Saudi fintech push

fFinancial infrastructure firm Tarabut has raised USD 50 mn in strategic funding, with Riyad Bank, Alawwal Investment's X-Tech Fund, and Gulf International Bank taking part, alongside Al Zamil Group, Kanoo Investment Projects, and other regional institutions, according to a press release. The round will deepen its presence in Saudi Arabia, which it is placing at the center of a push into integrated financing solutions, the Dubai-based firm said in the press release.

What they do: Tarabut provides the infrastructure for banks and lenders to offer financing within their own platforms, from verifying customer data and assessing credit to executing the transaction. The customer stays on the institution’s platform throughout the process.

Wiring up Masarat

Emaar the Economic City will build SAR 152 mn of additional utility infrastructure for Masarat Mobility Park, the automotive logistics hub in King Abdullah Economic City's Special Economic Zone, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Emaar will design, construct, and deliver the works after Masarat requested more utility capacity than its original land agreements provided.

How the parties fit together: Masarat is the joint venture formed by four buyers — Dar Al Himmah, Zamil Group Real Estate, Abdullah Ibrahim Alkhorayef Sons, and PIF subsidiary Tasaru Mobility Investments — after buying industrial plots from Emaar in 2023 to develop the logistics hub. Emaar owns and provides the infrastructure in the zone, so when Masarat needed extra utility capacity, it contracted Emaar to build it. Because PIF is a major Emaar shareholder and Tasaru is a PIF subsidiary inside the JV, this is a related-party transaction.

7

PLANET FINANCE

Private equity on track to underdeliver for investors

The boom of pre-2022 has well and truly worn off for private equity, and funds are likely to fall short on the returns promised to investors, experts and investors tell the Financial Times. Geopolitics, overvaluations, and investor pressure are all squeezing an asset class in a four-year downturn.

Where it began: The PE boom can be traced back to the period between 2019 and 2021, when the low interest rate environment of the post-2008 era met with a wave of financial stimulus packages on the back of the pandemic. The result was a record-breaking 2021, as the value of buyout transactions doubled and broke the USD 1 tn ceiling for the first time.

Now, it’s a very different story. The investment class has been in a four-year downturn, and between two-thirds and 90% of funds that started in that era are now falling short of their targeted returns, the sources said. Last decade, PE averaged returns of 25% of net assets to investors. Now, that figure is less than 15%.

The pinch is also coming from two sides: speed and values. The internal rate of return measures how much and how quickly a fund delivers its returns. One top executive expects funds that deployed capital between 2019 and 2021 to land at an average IRR of just 7-8% once all is said and done. The majority of firms aren’t likely to meet their IRR targets at all, according to Advent’s Managing Partner James Brocklebank, while two other fund investors see IRRs settling in the low double-digits — well below the typical high-teens target after fees.

That tracks with what we’ve noted so far, and shows the strain isn't confined to the West: PE and VC exits slowed to USD 2.7 bn in MENA in 1H — a fraction of the USD 386 bn Bain estimates buyout funds exited globally over the same period — putting 2026 on track to record the lowest exit value since 2017, despite private equity transaction values outpacing last year’s figures so far at USD 8.6 bn for 1H.

The current exit strategy (or lack thereof): Industry executives said during the IPEM conference that many funds aren’t selling yet, hoping to avoid the hit to returns in the current environment.

Pressure is also mounting from investors: They aren’t willing to sell out at a reduction but are also calling for more liquidity, Summation Capital’s CIO Roger Vincent says. For now, the sector looks increasingly stuck between a rock and a hard place.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed in early trading, with Japan’s Nikkei up 0.4% and South Korea’s Kospi flat. Wall Street equities dropped as comments about AI safety concerns from tech leaders sparked a sell-off in Nvidia and chip stocks.

TASI

10,878

+0.1% (YTD: +3.7%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,460

+0.1% (YTD: +5.3%)

NomuC

21,501

-0.4% (YTD: -7.7%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

54,797

-1.6% (YTD: +31.0%)

ADX

10,118

+0.1% (YTD: +1.2%)

DFM

5,977

+0.6% (YTD: -1.2%)

S&P 500

7,620

-0.5% (YTD: +11.3%)

FTSE 100

10,698

+0.4% (YTD: +7.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,260

-1.0% (YTD: +8.0%)

Brent crude

USD 106.97

+1.2%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.88

-0.5%

Gold

USD 4,327

-0.6%

BTC

USD 78,047

+1.5% (YTD: -11.0%)

Sukuk/bond market index

904.16

+0.6% (YTD: -1.6%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

149.33

-0.2% (YTD: -1.7%)

VIX (Fear gauge)

17.10

+8.0% (YTD: +14.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.2 bn. The index is up 3.7% YTD.

In the green: Saudi Arabia Refineries (+10.0%), Wafrah for Industry and Development (+6.3%), and Mutakamela Insurance (+4.7%).

In the red: Riyadh Cement (-4.9%), Armah Sports (-4.2%), and Advanced Building Industries (-3.7%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 19.5 mn. The index is down 7.7% YTD.

In the green: Albattal Factory for Chemical Industries (+17.2%), Hawyia Auctions (+7.3%), and Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling (+6.9%).

In the red: Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars (-10.3%), Advance International Company for Communication and Information Technology (-9.1%), and Ghida Alsultan for Fast Food (-8.3%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Al Rajhi Bank’s board greenlit a SAR 7.56 bn dividend payout for 1H 2026 at SAR 1.26 per share, according to a Tadawul filing. Distribution is set for 1 October.


SEPTEMBER

14-17 September (Monday-Thursday) The fourth Unesco Global Forum on the Ethics of AI (GFEAI), The Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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