MENA PE stays near record pace in 1H — but exits are heading for their weakest year since 2017

MENA private capital is still doing transactions — getting out is the harder part. Private equity (PE) transaction value reached USD 8.6 bn across 102 transactions in 1H 2026, only marginally behind last year’s record pace despite the Iran war. If that run rate holds, 2026 would still be the region’s second-strongest PE year of the past decade, according to PitchBook (pdf).

The war has rattled confidence without freezing deployment: PitchBook says disruption through Hormuz has weighed on transaction confidence, exit timing, and allocator appetite, but it is still too early to say that long-term PE flows have materially weakened.

A caveat on the headline: Global Private Capital Association (GPCA) data we covered earlier this month showed Middle East private capital investment falling 73% y-o-y to a record-low USD 1.7 bn in 1H. The datasets are not directly comparable — PitchBook covers the broader MENA region and puts PE activity alone at USD 8.6 bn — but both show capital becoming more concentrated in larger transactions.

Cross-border money is still doing most of the work. USD 6.4 bn was invested across 61 cross-border PE transactions, accounting for 74.3% of total PE value. That included a USD 250 mn investment by Blackstone and partners to establish the UAE gaming platform ADGT, one of Blackstone’s first UAE investments since the war began.

Turkey took the PE crown — with some Saudi help: Scopely’s USD 1 bn acquisition of Loom Games helped put Turkey on top by PE value. Scopely is owned by PIF-backed Savvy Games Group, while PIF remains MENA’s most active PE investor since 2020, with 51 regional transactions, ahead of ADQ’s 30 and Mubadala’s 29.

Venture capital (VC) is following the same “fewer, but bigger” script: Just 287 rounds closed in 1H versus 824 during all of 2025, but investment value still reached USD 2 bn. MAGNiTT data we covered in July showed the 10 largest rounds absorbing 58% of MENA funding, while two transactions alone accounted for roughly 36%.

The UAE has pulled decisively ahead in venture: UAE startups raised USD 1.3 bn in 1H — already more than in all of 2025 and equivalent to roughly two-thirds of MENA VC value. The three largest rounds went to UAE-based Cadena, CargoX AI, and Mal, while the UAE logged 106 transactions, nearly double Saudi Arabia’s 55.

But the exit door is barely open: PE and VC exits generated just USD 2.7 bn across 27 transactions in 1H, putting 2026 on course for the lowest exit value since 2017. That is largely what we were watching for in March, when GPCA said new investments were slowing rather than stopping. PitchBook now points to geopolitics, valuation gaps, AI disruption, and public-market fears as the main drags.

IPOs have gone from exit engine to rounding error: Public listings accounted for just 8.9% of PE exit value in 1H, down from 60.8% in 2025. Last year’s number was boosted by the flynas IPO at a USD 3.3 bn valuation; its market cap had fallen to around USD 2.2 bn by late August, which PitchBook says could weigh on appetite for future listings.

Fundraising is also concentrated: MENA private-market funds raised USD 5.4 bn in 1H, putting the region on track to exceed 2025’s USD 9.6 bn — but through just 53 closes versus 174 last year. PE accounted for USD 4.6 bn, or 85.6% of the total, while VC funds raised only USD 190.1 mn. BlueFive Capital’s USD 3 bn Onyx Fund I alone made up more than half of all capital raised.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Early trading across Asian markets saw declines, with South Korea’s Kospi dropping 3.3% and Japan’s Nikkei slipping 1.8%. The drop coincides with supply worries over crude oil alongside investor anticipation of potential interest rate increases in both Japan and the US this week.

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.8 bn. The index is up 3.6% YTD.

In the green: Armah Sports (10.0%), Arriyadh Development (+5.7%), and Saudi Reins. (+3.7%).

In the red: Saudi Aramco Base Oil (-10.0%), Knowledge Economic City (-5.1%), and Allied Cooperative Ins. (-5.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 9 mn. The index is down 7.4% YTD.

In the green: Quara Finance (+9.3%), Horizon Educational (+8.2%), and Petrol Naas (+6.9%).

In the red: Digital Research (-9.7%), Keir International (-9.3%), and Pan Gulf Marketing (-9.3%).