Pricing a standoff

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Almatar eyes Tadawul IPO in 2027

Good morning, friends. Najran is back on the front page, and with it a risk most of us had stopped pricing in. Today’s issue is really about who will commit money to a 10-year view of the economy, and at what price. This morning, we have two answers that point in opposite directions.

On Tadawul, nobody is answering. Issuers want last year’s price and buyers are still carrying last year’s losses, leaving the lineup for new paper stagnant. That standoff has been cemented by the monetary environment as rates remain high, as well as the geopolitical uncertainty from the ongoing US-Iran war.

In the Eastern Province, Manar Al Omran is answering the question with a shovel — five factories, headquarters, and employee housing. The buildout of what is essentially a small town is an indication of seeing demand that’s real enough to own the plant rather than rent the scaffolding.

But first: The Saudi Civil Defense lifted safety warnings for four southern cities this morning, including Abha, Khamis Mushait, Najran, and Jazan. It subsequently reissued warnings for Khamis Mushait and Abha before clearing them.

Booking a listing

Travel firm Almatar is targeting a Tadawul IPO next year, with the exact timing still pending, CEO Faisal Al Rajhi tells Aleqtisadiah. The company was reportedly gearing up for its IPO since 2024, originally aiming for 4Q 2025.

Al Rajhi expects the firm to deliver double-digit growth by the end of 2026, which could accelerate next year if geopolitical conditions stabilize. This growth will likely extend beyond the retail segment to include its technology solutions business, Almatar Travel Solutions. It also aims to expand its operations across Kuwait and the UAE, with a revamped model tailored to meet the needs of those markets.

Hitting the road

Ceer will unveil its first electric vehicles — a sedan and an SUV — at a global launch event next Monday, 21 September, the company said. The company is targeting 45% local content by 2034 and expects to contribute some SAR 30 bn to GDP and create about 30k jobs, SPA reports.

REMEMBER- The company locked its design this month, with production due in 4Q 2026 at a plant built for stamping, body construction, painting, and final assembly. That start date — and the 2034 local-content target — is when we’ll see whether the Kingdom is building more than an assembly operation.

More in the automotive pipeline: Lucid also aims to develop a Saudi EV in 2026, with localization and supply chain constraints remaining obstacles as the plant continues to rely on imported components.

Greening for returns

NCVC puts vegetation-cover sites up for investment: The National Center for Vegetation Cover Development and Combating Desertification is offering up 103 projects to develop vegetation-cover sites covering more than 45 mn sqm, on terms running five to 25 years, SPA reports. The center expects the projects to draw more than SAR 500 mn and create some 6k jobs.

Riyadh has the largest share at 24 opportunities, followed by Makkah with 13 and Asir and Madinah with 10 each. Activities are tailored to the environmental characteristics of each site, from paragliding and mountain climbing to nurseries, apiaries, medicinal and aromatic plants, and processing industries using invasive plant species.

***

You’re reading EnterpriseAM Saudi, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about Saudi, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Sunday through Thursday by 7am Riyadh time.

EnterpriseAM Saudi is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Tas’heel and Hassan Allam Properties.

Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on [email protected].

DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, the UAE, the MENA logistics industry, and the MENA <> India corridor?

Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM Saudi delivered every weekday.

***

The big story abroad

US President Donald Trump has downplayed AI safety fears after tech CEOs voiced concern about the risk of rapid AI development. Trump emphasized the need to maintain Washington’s technological edge over Beijing. Last week, Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon resigned from his position and warned that top developers believe AI poses a near-term existential threat.

Claude-maker to stay in the black: Anthropic reportedly told investors that it will sustain its profitability this quarter, addressing worries about the heavy spending of frontier AI firms prior to its major IPO. The company — which chose Nasdaq for its anticipated listing — has reportedly achieved gross profit margins exceeding 80% before accounting for distribution partner revenue shares and model training expenses.

A stalemate in Stockholm: Early results show Sweden’s election is in a deadlock between left-wing opposition and the right-wing governing coalition. Public broadcasting reports the opposition holds a lead of just 20k votes. The margin sets the stage for weeks of political uncertainty and intense coalition talks in the Nordic region’s largest economy.

Houthi attacks, pipeline outage threaten Saudi oil exports as Riyadh responds

Houthis escalate strikes on Saudi Arabia as Riyadh pushes back: The Houthis have attacked a military base in Najran province’s Sharurah, the group’s military spokesperson Yahya Saree said yesterday. Meanwhile, a projectile fell in Al Tawwal governorate, injuring two people and damaging a mosque and other buildings, Saudi civil defense said.

The Kingdom retaliated with 129 strikes over the weekend, with F-15 and Typhoon fighter jets launched from military bases in Khamis Mushait and Taif striking across Taiz, Marib, Hodeidah, Al-Jawf, Saada, Amran, and Hajjah, Saree said in a separate post. Yemen’s military also said it carried out three airstrikes against Houthi positions and barracks in Taiz yesterday.

Thousands in casualties and displacements: More than 500 government fighters have been killed and about 1.5k wounded on the west coast since 9 August, the National Resistance, a government-allied force, said. Some 85k people in Yemen have fled the fighting since July, and around 2k have crossed the Red Sea into Djibouti, according to the International Organization for Migration.

Ongoing attacks undermine global oil supply

Riyadh could run out of oil stocks for export within days if its East-West pipeline is not restarted, potentially removing up to 4% of global supply from the market, Saudi oil buyers and traders told Reuters. Yanbu has an estimated storage capacity of about 35 mn barrels, while Egypt’s Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir can hold around 18 mn and 20 mn barrels respectively.

Current stocks are below full capacity, while repairs could take weeks: Yanbu has enough stocks to maintain exports for only five to seven days, with the Kingdom also having several days’ worth of stocks at Egypt’s Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir ports. Repair estimates vary, with one industry source putting the timeline at five to six weeks, while another said partial flows could resume as work continues.

ICYMI- Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its East-West oil pipeline on Friday after it was targeted by several drones launched from Iraq. Meanwhile, the Houthis expanded their control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast, reaching the strategic islands of Perim and Hanish and the coastal towns of Mocha and Dhubab. Supply is already stretched, with the International Energy Agency putting August supply at 6 mn bbl / d, down 2.3 mn bbl / d from July and the lowest level in over 30 years.

Saudi IPO issuance stalls as owners + investors deadlock on price

Saudi IPO issuance has all but halted this year over a disagreement on price between owners and investors. Owners aren’t willing to list at what the market will now pay, and after a year in which most new listings lost money, investors aren’t willing to pay more. Three companies — Dar Al Balad (DBS), Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed, and MSGA — have gone public so far this year, raising SAR 522.6 mn. The total raised from these three IPOs is some 4% of the SAR 13.27 bn raised over the same eight months of 2025, when 25 companies listed, according to the Saudi Exchange’s annual report (pdf).

The pressures usually blamed for the drought all push in the same direction: Higher-for-longer interest rates, the US-Iran conflict, and a regulator taking a harder look at how banks value companies give owners a reason to wait, while investors are left without a reason to bid.

A year of losses set the tone

Six of the seven companies that listed on Tadawul in 2025 ended their first year below their offer price, falling an average of around 27%. This year’s cohort has been more mixed: DBS is up about 21% from its IPO price, MSGA about 4%, and Saleh Al Rashed is down 8%. The spread reflects pricing, sector risk, and market conditions, with some offerings appearing to have priced in optimistic assumptions about sector growth.

That record has changed how investors behave when they do participate. Poor post-listing performance encourages buying at the IPO and selling within a week or 10 days to book a return rather than holding, Riyadh-based investment banker Mustafa Fahim tells EnterpriseAM. “No one will be interested in investing for the long term,” he says, adding that this is the problem that needs to be fixed.

Saudi issuers are also valued on a narrower set of inputs than their peers elsewhere, Fahim tells us, including growth prospects, financial returns, and fundamentals, leaving less room for wagers on long-term value. In more developed markets such as the US, investors can put more weight on the technology a company has built or is buying.

Everything moving against valuations moves against supply

Rates are the first squeeze: Saudi monetary policy is expected to track contractionary steps in the US, with higher rates predicted by the end of the year, Fahim says, raising the cost of equity and “making an IPO less attractive.” A higher weighted average cost of capital pushes down valuations, and owners respond by declining to list at the resulting price.

Geopolitics supplied the trigger for this year’s delays: The US-Iran conflict pushed investors to caution and issuers to “postpone rather than launch into volatility,” MT Trading Senior Economist Ahmed Chreim tells EnterpriseAM. “That’s disciplined timing by issuers and their advisors, not a lack of appetite.” Mutlaq Al Ghowairi, Arabian Dyar, and Kesay Clinics all pushed back offerings, while the six-month windows granted to Alandalus Educational and Alromansiah expired unused.

The regulator’s response tightens the same screw. The Capital Market Authority is engaging several investment banks and questioning their valuation methodologies, which Fahim says pushes banks toward conservative, rather than optimistic, numbers. For an owner, a lower valuation is now an argument for waiting until multiples rise and rates fall.

A state-backed issuer is the near-term way out

The reforms that banks and investors are calling for — looser foreign ownership limits and faster approvals for companies waiting to list — are longer-dated. “For this year and into 2027, I don’t think they will make a meaningful difference because the performance of the IPO market is more structurally driven rather than just being driven by these changes,” Fahim tells us.

What could move sooner is a seller less sensitive to price. Fahim argues the government could restart the market by taking semi-government and PIF-owned entities public, where brand and market perception would draw investors back in and reset expectations for what a new listing does after the bell.

The pipeline is intact in the meantime. Humain is eyeing an IPO, with potential listings from Tabreed and Richard Attias & Associates behind it. “The fundamentals here are strong,” Chreim says. “As regional geopolitical uncertainty eases, I’d expect the combination of reform momentum, PIF support, and a deep, sector-diverse pipeline to translate into a strong finish to 2026 and an even stronger 2027.”

Manar Al Omran unveils SAR 1.2 bn industrial complex to localize construction supply chain

Construction support company Manar Al Omran (MAO) is building a SAR 1.2 bn industrial complex spanning 1 mn sqm in the Eastern Province, according to a press release. The development will include five factories, a corporate headquarters, and a residential community for 7k employees. The project will shift MAO’s operations from scaffolding rental and services into a vertically integrated manufacturer, serving the construction and energy sectors.

The core facility will be a scaffolding and steel factory, spanning 750k sqm and housing eight production facilities covering ringlock scaffolding, tubes, cuplock, engineered formwork, structural steel, shot blasting and powder coating, hot-dip galvanizing and maintenance. The complex will have a daily production capacity of 1.2k tons, making it the world’s largest single-site scaffolding factory.

Why this matters: The complex capitalizes on the Kingdom’s construction and gigaproject pipeline by manufacturing the supply chain elements of this industry. This localization effort can help Saudi projects reduce reliance on imported formwork and shield the construction sector from global material shortages, especially with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea.

Al Lujain appoints acting CEO

Al Lujain Corporation has appointed Mohammed Khalid Al Mutairi as acting CEO effective today, following the resignation of Khalid Mohammed Al Dawood (LinkedIn), who reached the statutory retirement age, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Al Mutairi has been with the company for nine years and is currently vice president of administrative affairs. Al Dawood, meanwhile, is expected to return to his executive duties after a short statutory break, with the company planning to re-contract him within 15 days of his resignation taking effect.

Gulf Coast Real Estate Development to break ground on Al Khafji coastal development this year

Gulf Coast Real Estate Development will start construction on the first phase of its Al Khafji coastal development this year, CEO Amr Banaja tells Asharq Business, noting that the project will be financed through different partnerships whose details will be announced later.

REMEMBER- The company was launched earlier this month to develop the 20 sq km integrated tourism and residential destination in Al Khafji, stretching 10 km along the Arabian Gulf waterfront. The project will feature eight residential neighborhoods, more than 16k housing units and around 1.4k hotel keys, alongside commercial, tourism, educational, and marina facilities. It will be developed in three phases, with the first phase — covering the neighborhoods and groundwork for the wider destination — targeted for completion in 2030.

Alramz secures SAR 500 mn financing

Alramz Real Estate secured SAR 500 mn in shariah-compliant credit facilities from Al Rajhi Bank, the company said in a Tadawul filing. The package is split into SAR 450 mn with a five-year tenor and SAR 50 mn with a three-month tenor. The five-year facility is secured by real estate mortgages covering 150% of the financing amount, an irrevocable assignment of project sale proceeds, dedicated accounts for each financed project, a SAR 531.2 mn on-demand promissory note, and Shariah-compliant Takaful ins. over the mortgaged assets.

IN CONTEXT- The financing comes as Alramz expands a development pipeline that includes a SAR 3.6 bn Riyadh project with around 2,505 apartments and a SAR 650 mn Jeddah fund targeting 900 residential units.

Signed and sealed: Al Majdiah’s new Madinah project

Al Majdiah Real Estate Company signed a SAR 185 mn agreement with Jadwa Al Maqar Real Estate Fund for the Mishraf Al Majdiah project in Madinah, according to a Tadawul filing. The agreement covers the development of 296 residential units in Al Hadra District, comprising 66 villas and 230 apartments, along with the public realm of the project’s central area.

Mefic Reit cuts Makkah asset value

Middle East Financial Investment Company (Mefic Capital) has agreed to cut the price of Mefic Reit Fund’s acquisition of a Makkah property to SAR 302 mn from SAR 355 mn, excluding real estate transaction tax, according to a Tadawul filing. The fund will acquire the 36k sqm plot through in-kind units.

The bigger picture: The Makkah plot is one of two purchases behind a board-approved SAR 770.9 mn increase in the fund’s total asset value. The other is an income-generating commercial complex in Jeddah, priced at SAR 460 mn excluding transaction tax.

MENA PE stays near record pace in 1H — but exits are heading for their weakest year since 2017

MENA private capital is still doing transactions — getting out is the harder part. Private equity (PE) transaction value reached USD 8.6 bn across 102 transactions in 1H 2026, only marginally behind last year’s record pace despite the Iran war. If that run rate holds, 2026 would still be the region’s second-strongest PE year of the past decade, according to PitchBook (pdf).

The war has rattled confidence without freezing deployment: PitchBook says disruption through Hormuz has weighed on transaction confidence, exit timing, and allocator appetite, but it is still too early to say that long-term PE flows have materially weakened.

A caveat on the headline: Global Private Capital Association (GPCA) data we covered earlier this month showed Middle East private capital investment falling 73% y-o-y to a record-low USD 1.7 bn in 1H. The datasets are not directly comparable — PitchBook covers the broader MENA region and puts PE activity alone at USD 8.6 bn — but both show capital becoming more concentrated in larger transactions.

Cross-border money is still doing most of the work. USD 6.4 bn was invested across 61 cross-border PE transactions, accounting for 74.3% of total PE value. That included a USD 250 mn investment by Blackstone and partners to establish the UAE gaming platform ADGT, one of Blackstone’s first UAE investments since the war began.

Turkey took the PE crown — with some Saudi help: Scopely’s USD 1 bn acquisition of Loom Games helped put Turkey on top by PE value. Scopely is owned by PIF-backed Savvy Games Group, while PIF remains MENA’s most active PE investor since 2020, with 51 regional transactions, ahead of ADQ’s 30 and Mubadala’s 29.

Venture capital (VC) is following the same “fewer, but bigger” script: Just 287 rounds closed in 1H versus 824 during all of 2025, but investment value still reached USD 2 bn. MAGNiTT data we covered in July showed the 10 largest rounds absorbing 58% of MENA funding, while two transactions alone accounted for roughly 36%.

The UAE has pulled decisively ahead in venture: UAE startups raised USD 1.3 bn in 1H — already more than in all of 2025 and equivalent to roughly two-thirds of MENA VC value. The three largest rounds went to UAE-based Cadena, CargoX AI, and Mal, while the UAE logged 106 transactions, nearly double Saudi Arabia’s 55.

But the exit door is barely open: PE and VC exits generated just USD 2.7 bn across 27 transactions in 1H, putting 2026 on course for the lowest exit value since 2017. That is largely what we were watching for in March, when GPCA said new investments were slowing rather than stopping. PitchBook now points to geopolitics, valuation gaps, AI disruption, and public-market fears as the main drags.

IPOs have gone from exit engine to rounding error: Public listings accounted for just 8.9% of PE exit value in 1H, down from 60.8% in 2025. Last year’s number was boosted by the flynas IPO at a USD 3.3 bn valuation; its market cap had fallen to around USD 2.2 bn by late August, which PitchBook says could weigh on appetite for future listings.

Fundraising is also concentrated: MENA private-market funds raised USD 5.4 bn in 1H, putting the region on track to exceed 2025’s USD 9.6 bn — but through just 53 closes versus 174 last year. PE accounted for USD 4.6 bn, or 85.6% of the total, while VC funds raised only USD 190.1 mn. BlueFive Capital’s USD 3 bn Onyx Fund I alone made up more than half of all capital raised.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Early trading across Asian markets saw declines, with South Korea’s Kospi dropping 3.3% and Japan’s Nikkei slipping 1.8%. The drop coincides with supply worries over crude oil alongside investor anticipation of potential interest rate increases in both Japan and the US this week.

TASI	10,865	-1.3% (YTD: +3.6%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,459	-1.3% (YTD: +5.2%)
NomuC	21,579	-0.3% (YTD: -7.4%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	55,665	-1.1% (YTD: +33.1%)
ADX	10,113	+0.0% (YTD: +1.2%)
DFM	5,941	+0.6% (YTD: -1.8%)
S&P 500	7,657	+0.9% (YTD: +11.9%)
FTSE 100	10,650	+0.4% (YTD: +7.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,325	+0.9% (YTD: +9.1%)
Brent crude	USD 107.71	+3.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.87	+1.3%
Gold	USD 4,375	-0.8%
BTC	USD 77,387	+0.1% (YTD: -11.7%)
Sukuk/bond market index	898.87	-0.3% (YTD: -2.2%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	149.33	-0.2% (YTD: -1.7%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	15.84	-11.2% (YTD: +9.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.8 bn. The index is up 3.6% YTD.

In the green: Armah Sports (10.0%), Arriyadh Development (+5.7%), and Saudi Reins. (+3.7%).

In the red: Saudi Aramco Base Oil (-10.0%), Knowledge Economic City (-5.1%), and Allied Cooperative Ins. (-5.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 9 mn. The index is down 7.4% YTD.

In the green: Quara Finance (+9.3%), Horizon Educational (+8.2%), and Petrol Naas (+6.9%).

In the red: Digital Research (-9.7%), Keir International (-9.3%), and Pan Gulf Marketing (-9.3%).

CALENDAR

SEPTEMBER

14-17 September (Monday-Thursday) The fourth Unesco Global Forum on the Ethics of AI (GFEAI), The Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

Sections

About

Privacy & Support