Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman urges Trump to curtail strikes

Good morning, folks. Our top two stories cover Saudi Arabia’s reckoning with notable regional disruptions, namely the TASI’s July performance and revised BMI forecasts. The exchange’s performance in July may seem stable — dipping roughly 2% — but an underlying volatility and a 50% drop in trading volumes reflect a thinned market rather than a real equilibrium. Meanwhile, BMI has revised its Saudi economic forecast to a 1.3% contraction in light of prolonged Hormuz disruption, standing to hit both oil production and non-oil growth.

ALSO- SAB Invest’s former chief investment officer has stepped down to launch EQCM, a new Riyadh-based and MENA-focused PE fund with some SAR 1 bn in initial commitments.

More 2Q earnings are in: The latest earnings performance from Bupa, Luberef, Saudi Chemical, Jabal Omar, Alujain, and Catrion Catering are here.

Crown prince does not want more US strikes

Stop: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly urged US President Donald Trump in a phone call on Saturday to avoid strikes that could reignite the conflict and lead to an unprecedented escalation, Axios reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter.

Did he listen? Trump announced he’s calling off planned strikes on Iran shortly after, provided Tehran reaches an agreement with Washington “rapidly,” according to a post on Truth Social. He claimed that Iran and other countries in the region asked him to hold off and that the parameters of an agreement were established. This would include the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and putting an end to Iran’s nuclear program.

Reports had said that the US and Israel were preparing intense attacks against Iran, including strikes on energy infrastructure, BBC reports. The plan was reportedly discussed at a US cabinet meeting on Friday, while Washington urged Americans across the Middle East to remain alert and be prepared to leave if the conflict escalates.

The conflict is creating domestic pressure for Trump, with around 60% of Americans disapproving of the war, according to Pew Research Center. A further escalation could push oil prices higher and increase pressure on US consumers ahead of the midterm elections.

The Kingdom is trying to secure all its fronts: Saudi Arabia just founded a maritime defense alliance to secure its trade and energy supplies, and any escalation with Iran risks more Houthi attacks across the Red Sea and targeting of the Kingdom’s ports and energy infrastructure by Iran. This would pose an unprecedented security threat and would further disrupt Saudi’s shipments and export levels.

REMEMBER- The US and Saudi Arabia launched air strikes on Iran-backed groups in Iraq last week in retaliation for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities that it says were launched from the Arab country. Iran also announced launching missiles at US bases in Jordan and targeting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

LPG prices up again

Saudi Aramco has raised its official August selling prices for LPG by 6-7% on stronger demand, traders told Reuters on Friday. The state producer lifted propane by USD 40 a ton to USD 620 and butane by the same margin to USD 640. Aramco’s monthly LPG prices are widely used as a benchmark for Middle East LPG exports to the Asia-Pacific market.

The seesaw: Aramco moved the other way last month, cutting LPG prices by 24-27% for July, with propane down USD 180 a ton to USD 580 and butane down USD 220 a ton to USD 600 on higher global supply.

Conflict-wary Opec+ raises output

Opec+ greenlit an additional hike of 188k bbl / d for September, marking the bloc’s sixth consecutive monthly increase and fully rolling back the 1.65 mn bbl / d in voluntary cuts agreed upon in 2023, according to a statement. The decision mirrors identical quota increases for August, July, and June, which followed an oil output boost of 206k bbl / d for May.

The Kingdom will contribute 62k bbl / d for the hike, raising its required production level to around 10.5k bbl / d for September 2026.

The conflict weighs heavy: In a separate meeting yesterday, the alliance’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee expressed renewed concern over attacks on energy infrastructure amid the US-Iran war, noting that the costly and prolonged repairs required for such damage threaten global supply.

REMEMBER- Despite rising quotas, Opec+’s actual output has yet to fully recover from war-related export disruptions, with May production dropping m-o-m to 33.1 mn bbl / d — well below pre-war levels of 42.7 mn — before starting a gradual recovery in June.

What’s next? The bloc maintains a foundational layer of production cuts affecting the majority of its members — a restriction of 2 mn bbl / d originally enacted in 2022 that is scheduled to remain in effect through the end of the year, Reuters reports.

Some Saudi oil is going out: Two tankers carrying a total of around 3 mn barrels of Saudi crude crossed the Bab Al Mandab strait over the weekend despite the ongoing naval blockade by Yemen’s Houthis, Reuters reports, citing data by Kpler. The waterway saw 18 commodity vessels pass through yesterday.

Data point

USD 167.4 bn — that’s the value of Saudi Arabia’s bonds and sukuk maturing between 2026 and 2030, according to a Kamco Invest report citing Bloomberg data. Sovereign and government issuers account for USD 31.5 bn of Saudi Arabia's upcoming maturities.

Monday morning kudos

A shoutout is in order for our friends at EFG Hermes, whose securities brokerage division ranked first across five MENA markets in 1H 2026, according to a press release (pdf). EFG Hermes secured the top spot in Egypt, Kuwait, and the UAE, topping the EGX, Boursa Kuwait, Dubai Financial Market, Abu Dhabi Exchange, and Nasdaq Dubai, the company said, citing official market share data. The brokerage also ranked number 10 in Saudi Arabia, with its market share rising to 6.5%.

“Ranking first across five MENA markets in the first half of 2026 is a powerful endorsement of the trust our clients place in EFG Hermes and the strength of the platform we have built across the region. This is not a one-market story; it is the result of years of investment in talent, technology, execution quality, and deep client relationships across our footprint,” EFG Hermes Group Head of Brokerage Ahmed Waly said.

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The big story abroad

The regional war may be looking at another halt with US-Iran negotiations set to resume today, US President Donald Trump said, without confirming a deadline for an agreement. Trump said he called off a planned strike against Iran, characterizing it as the “biggest attack since World War II.” Iran’s state media reported that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke with Saudi and Pakistani officials to coordinate diplomatic efforts.

One of the world’s largest pharma groups may be on the way, as UK-based AstraZeneca conducts talks to merge with US drugmaker Bristol Myers Squibb. The resulting entity would be valued at around USD 400 bn. The companies have discussed a potential tie-up in recent months and could reach an agreement soon, though talks may still be delayed or fall apart.

Apple has put a cap on incoming software bug submissions from researchers after its defense system was swarmed with AI-generated reports that hallucinate non-existent risks. The iPhone maker says it is facing an industry-wide challenge as generative AI tools reshape cybersecurity.

Hollywood has another hit on its hands, as Sony Pictures’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to some USD 927 mn in global box-office revenues, becoming the second-biggest film debut ever. The web-slinger’s latest is well positioned to overtake the year’s other major hits, namely Toy Story 5, The Odyssey, and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie.