Opec+ approves output increase

Good morning, all. We lead today’s issue with the Kingdom’s latest PMI reading — the non-oil private sector hit a four-month high in June amid a recovery in domestic demand and business confidence.

PLUS: We talk to Coldwell Banker Saudi Arabia CEO Youssef Khattar about what we can expect now that the rules governing foreigners’ real estate buys are out.

Opec+ sticks to the script

Opec+ approved an output increase of another 188k bbl / d in August — marking the alliance’s fifth consecutive monthly increase as producers continue unwinding voluntary supply cuts despite mounting concerns that the market is tipping into surplus, according to a statement. The decision follows identical quota increases for June and July — 206k bbl / d for April and May — and forms part of the group’s phased rollback of the 1.65 mn bbl / d voluntary production cut agreed in 2023.

The production increases are only beginning to translate into actual barrels: While quotas have continued to rise, actual output has yet to fully recover after the war disrupted exports. Opec’s latest monthly report (pdf) showed production stood at 33.13 mn bbl / d in May, down by 185k bbl / d m-o-m and still below pre-war levels of 42.72 mn bbl / d, although output began recovering in June as exports gradually resumed.

That recovery is now reshaping the market: The easing of disruptions following the ceasefire has released more crude into global markets just as demand growth slows. Opec recently cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1 mn bbl / d from 1.2 mn bbl / d, while still expecting total demand to reach 106.1 mn bbl / d

What comes next? Assuming the alliance continues increasing quotas at the current pace, the remaining 379k bbl / d of the original voluntary cuts could be fully restored by the end of September, according to Reuters’ calculations.

A relief for 24-hour operators

The Housing Ministry is waiving the 24-hour operating fee for 10 types of business activities, Aleqtisadiyah reports. Businesses that will not have to pay the annual fee — up to SAR 100k — include fuel filling services at petrol stations, service centers and petrol stations outside urban areas, hotels, serviced apartments, resorts, pharmacies, wedding halls, rest houses, and medical and educational facilities.

The new rules are based on a 2019 Cabinet decision allowing commercial establishments to operate 24 hours a day. Municipalities will designate the commercial streets and locations where 24-hour businesses can operate to minimize disruption to residential neighborhoods.

Data point

60.8% — that was the hotel room occupancy rate in Saudi Arabia during 1Q, down 2.1% y-o-y compared to the same quarter in 2025, according to the latest Gastat data (pdf). Occupancy rates for serviced apartments and other hospitality facilities rose to 51.6% from 50.7% a year earlier.

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The big story abroad

Nato’s two-day summit kicks off tomorrow in Ankara and discussions are expected to revolve around the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US-Iran war, and US President Donald Trump’s comments on Greenland. Trump demanded “loyalty” from the coalition ahead of the summit, where he is scheduled to meet with the heads of state of Turkey, Syria, and Ukraine.

The spread of AI use in financial services has triggered an “arms race” for regulators, according to Sheldon Mills, executive director of the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority. Mills argues that regulators need greater powers to monitor the rapid growth of AI, namely large language models, and underlined concerns over the softwares’ bias, opaque pricing, and personalized manipulation.

Meanwhile, in aviation: British low-cost airline EasyJet has agreed in principle to the fifth takeover bid proposed by global alternative investment firm Castlelake LP, valuing the company at USD 6.9 bn. The budget carrier has been struggling with rising jet fuel prices and muted demand since the regional war broke out.

Trump finagles Balogun favor from FIFA? FIFA will allow the US top goal scorer Folarin Balogun to play in the upcoming showdown with Belgium — despite the footballer earning a red card in his last match — after Trump urged FIFA President Gianni Infantino to review the suspension. This move marks the first reversal of its kind since 1962 and has drawn criticism from many, including the Belgian federation.